Alabama vs. LSU Early Picks, Predictions & Odds Week 11
Alabama and LSU take center stage on Saturday night as the two historic rivals battle inside Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., to keep their respective College Football Playoff odds hopes alive.
My Alabama vs. LSU early picks give the visitors a slight edge, but it’s difficult to predict how each side will fare. The conference clash kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Crimson Tide and Tigers have two losses apiece thus far and are lagging behind the top teams in the SEC. A third would effectively mean the end of either’s postseason hopes, so which side are we giving the early edge?
My early Alabama vs. LSU prediction
College football picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: LSU +3
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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LSU has closed as a home underdog just three times under Brian Kelly. The Tigers are 2-1 straight up in those games, with wins over Alabama (2022) and Ole Miss (2024) and a loss to Tennessee (2022). They’re being underestimated once again, which is why I believe there is value in the hosts in front of a ruckus Death Valley crowd.
Oddsmakers are showing a bit of recency bias with this line. We last saw each squad two weeks ago, when Alabama shut out Missouri at home, and LSU squandered a double-digit lead in College Station. Despite those results, the spread suggests Kalen DeBoer’s men are five points better on a neutral site. The visitors haven’t done enough to justify that confidence from sportsbooks — Nick Saban is no longer on the sidelines.
Alabama has lost its last two games on the road, and LSU is 13-0 at night since Kelly took over in 2022. The Tigers’ head coach is also 21-3 during his career when coming off a bye week. Run to the window and get LSU at home as a field goal underdog before it’s too late.
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Alabama vs. LSU live odds
See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week 11 game.
Moneyline
- Alabama best odds: -140 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 58.33%
- LSU best odds: +125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 44.44%
FanDuel offers a fantastic price on the Alabama moneyline (-140). ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide a 69.8% chance to win — equivalent to -231 odds — whereas FanDuel’s line suggests an implied probability of 58.33%. On the flip side, bet365 offers the best price on the home side.
Spread
- Alabama best odds: -2.5 (-120) via FanDuel
- LSU best odds: +3 (-110) via bet365
FanDuel and bet365 are showing once again that they have the best prices for early bettors on each side. I expect the odds to move in LSU’s favor as the week progresses. Therefore, if you’re leaning toward picking Alabama, I’d suggest holding out. Take the Tigers at the current number with bet365 if you’re on the other side of the aisle, though.
Over/Under
- Over best odds: 57.5 (-115) via BetMGM
- Under best odds: 58.5 (-110) via FanDuel
This is one of the hardest game lines to predict, given Alabama and LSU are both 5-3 Over/Under. Gone are the days when this game would finish 9-6 in overtime. The Crimson Tide and Tigers have combined to score more than 58 points in four of their last five meetings, so expect the total to increase as we get closer to kickoff.
How to watch Alabama vs. LSU
- When: Saturday, Nov. 9
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, La.)
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 66 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph NE
- Favorite: Alabama -3 (-105 via BetMGM)
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