College Football Playoff Odds: 5 Teams to Target Now

At some point, the powers that be in college football might go a full calendar year without tinkering with the College Football Playoff Odds. That point has not yet come, instead overreacting to every postseason and thus never giving the product time to prove its own structure.

Notre Dame is a -750 favorite to make the 12-team Playoff not only because the Irish should be favored by a touchdown or more in every game this season, but also because provisions have been added to the Playoff selection rules that will keep them from being boxed out at the last moment as they were last year.

It would take an injury to quarterback CJ Carr to keep Notre Dame from the Playoff, and even that might not be enough; but do you really want to tie up your money for four months at -750 odds?

How about some Playoff possibilities that are of greater long-term value?

🏈 Mississippi YES (+200 at DraftKings)

The Mississippi Rebels winning the needed court case to find another year of eligibility for quarterback Trinidad Chambliss should raise their floor to a Playoff bid, even if betting odds remain skeptical.

Mississippi may fall off from last year’s heights, but with Pete Golding still running the defense, there should be a reasonable margin for error, certainly enough of one to assure a season-opening win against No. 24 Louisville in Nashville. Golding’s acumen should expose Jeff Brohm’s system offense.

That will then set up a season where Mississippi needs to win three of five games against LSU, Missouri, Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma. Both pieces of the Red River Rivalry are away games for the Rebels, and they should be home underdogs against Georgia. For that matter, math thinks Mississippi should be a home underdog against LSU, but the narrative of Lane Kiffin’s return has encouraged sportsbooks to make the Rebels 2.5-point favorites in lookahead lines.

Asking for a 3-2 record in those games is a lofty request. But getting the Tigers early in the season, before Kiffin’s massive transfer haul can fully coalesce, helps the cause. And yours truly is not as high on Texas (more on that later) and Georgia as the rest of the world seems to be.

There is a reason this is set at +200, but one November upset may be enough to vault the Rebels into their second straight Playoff.

🏈 Boise State YES (+550 at BetMGM)

This is wildly mispriced.

The Playoff still requires five conference champions. And no Group of Six team is more likely to win its conference than Boise State is, at +140 to win the Pac 12, per FanDuel.

But more than that, the Broncos should be double-digit favorites in every game this season after their opener against Oregon.

Upsets happen. This is known. This is why we love this sport. But Boise State has a veteran quarterback in Maddux Madsen and a running back combination in Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines that should dictate the terms against every Pac 12 opponent.

The Broncos’ win total is set at 7.5 or 8.5, depending on how aggressive you want to be. One quick note: Pac-12 win totals are for only an 11-game slate, with the final week of the season up to flex scheduling.

The difference between 9-2 and 10-1 plus a conference title should be much more than +180 to +550.

🏈 Houston YES (+1000 at BetMGM)

This could well be the thought of yours truly that most backfires this season. Belief in Houston seems to be a niche industry, but doubt Willie Fritz at your own peril.

The Big 12 scheduling matrix has the Cougars in some jeopardy, having to go to Texas Tech, Kansas State and Utah, but their other six conference games are all distinctly winnable. One upset could be enough to propel Houston to the conference title game, and at that point, how delightful would this 10-to-1 ticket be?

🏈 Penn State YES (+375 at Caesars)

This is more an “Also Considered” thought than an actual bet, but the logic to it is worth explaining. Using the sharpest win totals on the market, eight teams have numbers of 9.5 or higher. Penn State is in the glut at 8.5, but its Over is juiced to -180, effectively giving the Nittany Lions’ the ninth-highest win total in the country.

That does not mesh with a +375 chance of reaching the Playoff. There is inherent value here in Matt Campbell’s first season in Happy Valley.

🏈 Texas NO (+154 at DraftKings)

Speaking of Penn State … Last year the Nittany Lions were a preseason sure thing to reach the College Football Playoff. Anyone remember what happened?

An honest collection of “Make the Playoff” bets should also include one shocking “NO” suggestion. Enter Texas, as lofty as -220 to make the Playoff.

Start with the schedule problem. The Longhorns face Ohio State, Oklahoma, Mississippi, LSU and Texas A&M, as well as Tennessee, Florida and Missouri. Texas should be favored in just five of those eight games, currently effectively a pick’em at home against the Buckeyes and then ready to be doubted on the road at LSU and Texas A&M.

Losing those three would quite probably be enough to knock the Longhorns out of the Playoff in what should be Arch Manning’s final collegiate season. Texas should not lose all three of those games, just logically, but there will be five more competitive games remaining.

That schedule alone should lend value to this “NO” bet, and the chaos that would come in the subsequent coaching carousel should lend its own brand of entertainment.