College Football Week 11 Picks Against the Spread for Marquee Games
As the College Football Playoff rapidly approaches, the slate is beginning to heat up and our Week 11 picks against the spread focus on three games involving teams with playoff hopes.
- Coming off an upset loss that thwarted Cade Klubnik's hopes to contend in the Heisman Trophy odds race, Clemson takes on a scrappy Virginia Tech squad
- One of just two ranked Group of Five teams, Army can continue climbing the College Football Playoff odds with a win over North Texas
- BYU has the shortest college football championship odds in the Big 12 ahead of the Holy War against Utah
With a plethora of AP Top 25 games this Saturday, our Week 11 college football predictions focus on the can't-miss matchups.
College football ATS picks Week 11: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Picks | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa vs. UCLA | Iowa (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Purdue vs. Ohio State | Ohio State (-38) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Miami vs. Georgia Tech | Miami (-11) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Florida vs. Texas | Florida (+21.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Minnesota vs. Rutgers | Minnesota (-6) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Navy vs. South Florida | Navy (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Georgia vs. Ole Miss | Ole Miss (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Michigan vs. Indiana | Indiana (-14) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Iowa State vs. Kansas | Iowa State (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Army vs. North Texas | Army (-6) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Clemson vs. Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colorado vs. Texas Tech | Colorado (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Maryland vs. Oregon | Oregon (-25) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Mississippi State vs. Tennessee | Tennessee (-23.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Florida State vs. Notre Dame | Notre Dame (-26) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Alabama vs. LSU | LSU (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Washington vs. Penn State | Penn State (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Nevada vs. Boise State | Boise State (-25) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| BYU vs. Utah | BYU (-4) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
College football picks as of Monday. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Virginia Tech (+6.5) vs. Clemson
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
After its season-opening loss to Georgia, Clemson looked like it would cruise to the ACC Championship. Instead, the Tigers beat up a handful of struggling conference opponents before being handed a 33-21 loss at home to Louisville on Saturday.
While I don't think Virginia Tech will win outright, the Tigers are in for a tough matchup. The Hokies are 27th in SP+ and have a ferocious pass rush led by Antwaun Powell-Ryland, who leads the country in sacks (12).
Clemson's defense also ranks outside of the top 30 in both EPA per rush and dropback and will have to stop a ground attack led by Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten, who are both expected to be back after missing last week's game against Syracuse.
If the Hokies can cover for the fifth time in six games, a $10 winning bet pays a $9.52 profit at FanDuel.
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Army (-5.5) at North Texas
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Army looks like it's one of roughly four Group of Five teams with a legitimate shot at making the College Football Playoff. And the Black Knights are also one of the best teams in the country against the spread (6-2).
With QB Bryson Daily expected to be back after missing last week as a late scratch, he should have Army cooking against North Texas. The Mean Green are just 129th in SP+ on defense while the Black Knights are the No. 1 team in EPA per dropback on offense and No. 16 in EPA per rush.
In what will likely be a shootout, North Texas just doesn't have the guns to keep up with Army. The Mean Green rank outside of the top 40 in both EPA per rush and dropback and the Black Knights are 36th in SP+ on defense.
If Jeff Monken's team can cover yet again, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at bet365.
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BYU (-4) at Utah
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
After a two-year hiatus, one of the best rivalry in sports is back with BYU taking on Utah in the Holy War. While the Utes have dominated this series in the past, the Cougars are in far better shape this season.
With QB Jake Retzlaff's dual-threat ability, BYU's offense ranks 13th in EPA per rush and should be capable of exposing a Utah defense that's uncharacteristically struggled to stop the ground game (68th in EPA per rush).
The flip side of the matchup is actually where BYU should really take advantage. Utah is 89th in SP+ on offense with a massive issue under center, and the Cougars rank top 20 in both EPA per rush and dropback on defense.
BYU is one of just three teams with a better than 80% cover rate (7-1 ATS this season), and Utah is one of the worst teams ATS at 2-6. If Kalani Sitake's team covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at Caesars.
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College football picks roundup: Week 11
- College football Week 11 upset picks
- College football Week 11 expert picks
- College football Week 11 player props
- College football Week 11 best bets
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