College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Predictions, Player Props & ATS Picks

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 9, 2024 5:30 AM EST • 4 min 63 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Indiana's Kurtis Rourke passes as we make our best bets for the Week 11 college football slate. — Indiana's Kurtis Rourke passes during the Indiana versus Maryland football game at Memorial Stadium. Photo by: Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

The first College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday (which we broke down in our College Football Playoff rankings and odds), setting the backdrop for an exciting slate of college football games this weekend.

The underdogs are the home teams in the two Week 11 ranked vs. ranked matchups (Ole Miss vs. Georgia, LSU vs. Alabama)
All of the AP top-10 teams are in action
Indiana is favored over Michigan for the first time since 1968

As part of our Week 11 college football predictions, our college football best bets for Week 11 call for another impressive performance from an under-the-radar Heisman candidate, have two plus-money plays on a player rushing prop, and an outright upset.

Best college football player props & ATS predictions for Week 11

College football odds subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Kurtis Rourke Over 258.5 passing yards (-119 via Caesars) vs. Michigan ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Devin Neal to score 2+ touchdowns (+330 via FanDuel) vs. Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐
Duke ML (+130 via BetMGM) vs. NC State ⭐⭐⭐
Utah +4 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. BYU ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 11 college football odds & schedule (marquee games)

(Odds via BetMGM)

Florida (+21.5) vs. Texas (-21.5), Saturday at Noon ET
Georgia (-2.5) vs. Ole Miss (+2.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Michigan (+14.5) vs. Indiana (-14.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Alabama (-3) vs. LSU (+3), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
BYU (-4) vs. Utah (+4), Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET

College football props for Week 11

College football picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Kurtis Rourke Over 258.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -119 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.34%

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Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke has the nation’s best passer rating of any quarterback (with a minimum of 100 attempts), and his 74.6% completion percentage ranks third. However, his most impressive performance was arguably last week when he picked apart the Michigan State defense for 263 yards and four touchdowns despite completing just 19 passes.

Michigan held Texas’ Quinn Ewers to 246 passing yards, but the next best quarterbacks that the Wolverines have faced (USC’s Miller Moss and Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel) each threw for 283-plus yards against them.

This is a four-star play, as Rourke has gone over this projected total in all four games in which he has attempted 29-plus passes. We expect him to do that in what should be a closer game than they have experienced lately against Michigan.

Over backers are getting a great number at Caesars, as the O/U is seven yards higher (265.5) at FanDuel.

Devin Neal to score 2+ touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +330 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 23.26%

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Jayhawks running back Devin Neal started the season with four consecutive 100-yard rushing games. But I am bypassing his O/U of 78.5 rushing yards, considering he has been held to 71 or fewer yards in three of the last four games.

Neal has scored at least one touchdown in five consecutive games, and multiple touchdowns twice this season. The reason for optimism is that Kansas ranks first nationally in scoring on all 26 of its red zone chances this year, which includes 21 touchdowns.

Neal has also contributed much more in the passing game of late, with three of his top four receiving yardage totals (all of at least 26 yards) coming in the last three games.

Thus, I am encouraged by his 66.67% implied probability (based on DraftKings’ -200 odds) for him to score a touchdown, and am looking for a much bigger payday with FanDuel’s +330 odds (a $10 winning wager would net $33 in profits).

College football game predictions for Week 11

Duke ML ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 43.48%

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Duke lost by 22 points to Miami last week and failed to cover the 19.5-point spread in the process. However, the Blue Devils had the lead over the top-five Hurricanes midway through the third quarter and trailed by just one a couple of minutes into the fourth before the game got away from them.

The Blue Devils' defense is tough to prepare for, running a unique 3-3-5 team that ranks third in Havoc created. Meanwhile, NC State ranks 129th or worse in tackles for loss and Havoc allowed, so I expect Duke to live in the Wolfpack backfield.

I would not put anyone off backing the Blue Devils at +3.5 at FanDuel, the only one of our best sports betting apps offering more than a field goal. But I am encouraged enough by Duke’s performance last week to take a stab at its moneyline odds, adding to my list of college football upset picks for Week 11.

Utah +4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

BYU does not need any style points to make the College Football Playoff thanks to the new 12-team format, which automatically gives a top-four seed to the four highest Power Conference champions. Thus, the Cougars can avoid a slip-up in Big 12 regular season play, which could come in a hostile environment in Salt Lake City.

BYU has already crushed its preseason expectations, starting 8-0 after being given a projected win total of 4.5. But road games in the “Holy War” has been its kryptonite, losing five straight games at Utah.

BYU has covered just two of the thirteen games it has been favored over the Utes since 1993. And while Utah has lost four straight, its defense will always keep it in games. It ranks 13th with a 73.3% stop rate and allows just 1.39 points per drive.

DraftKings and FanDuel are a half-point lower at +3.5, so I am taking advantage of one of the few +4s at the standard -110 juice that are available at a few of our top sports betting sites.

College football picks roundup: Week 11

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”