College Football Playoff Rankings & Odds: Projections for the 12-Team Playoff
The College Football Playoff rankings will be released by the selection committee every week from Tuesday, Nov. 5 until the final rankings and playoff seeding are revealed on Sunday, Dec. 8.
With the five highest-ranked conference champions getting in as automatic qualifiers - and the top four receiving a bye - the selection committee will have to pick seven teams to earn the at-large bids.
Ahead of the first rankings being released, 10 teams have College Football Playoff odds of -200 or shorter, implying a 66.67% or better probability they will make the inaugural 12-team CFP.
Much like the college football championship odds, the CFP odds are dominated by Big Ten and SEC programs with those two conferences expected to account for at least half the playoff bids.
Meanwhile, Heisman Trophy odds contenders like Miami's Cam Ward and Boise State's Ashton Jeanty are fighting to win out and earn a first-round bye in the playoff.
While the final rankings won't be known for over a month, we're projecting what the College Football Playoff bracket could look like before the college bowl game odds are officially set.
Projecting the College Football Playoff rankings
College Football Playoff odds from our best sports betting apps as of Nov. 5
| Ranking | Team (projected record) | Selection | Best odds to make CFP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State (12-1) | Big Ten Champion | -3000 via DraftKings |
| 2 | Georgia (12-1) | SEC Champion | -2000 via BetMGM |
| 3 | Miami (13-0) | ACC Champion | -1000 via DraftKings |
| 4 | Boise State (12-1) | Highest-ranked G5 champion | -238 via BetMGM |
| 5 | Oregon (12-1) | At-large | -4000 via FanDuel |
| 6 | Texas (11-2) | At-large | -1250 via FanDuel |
| 7 | BYU (12-1) | Big 12 Champion | +110 via FanDuel |
| 8 | Indiana (11-1) | At-large | -200 via bet365 |
| 9 | Notre Dame (11-1) | At-large | -222 via BetMGM |
| 10 | Penn State (11-1) | At-large | -294 via BetMGM |
| 11 | SMU (11-2) | At-large | +130 via FanDuel |
| 12 | Tennessee (10-2) | At-large | -225 via Caesars |
First four out
| Team (projected record) | Best odds to make CFP |
|---|---|
| Alabama (10-2) | -125 via BetMGM |
| Iowa State (11-2) | +260 via DraftKings |
| Ole Miss (9-3) | +160 via FanDuel |
| Texas A&M (9-3) | +350 via bet365 |
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
| Matchup | Date | Location |
|---|---|---|
| No. 12 Tennessee vs. No. 5 Oregon | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oreg.) |
| No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Texas | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas) |
| No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 BYU | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo, Utah) |
| No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Indiana | Friday, Dec. 20 OR Saturday, Dec. 21 | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Ind.) |
Big Ten
Ohio State
If Ohio State can beat Indiana on Nov. 23 - three months ago that would have been a wild thing to say - the Buckeyes should get a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.
I think the winner of that game will ultimately earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. And after the way the Buckeyes' defense played against Penn State - and the fact they came within one second of potentially beating Oregon - I'm taking Ohio State to win the game in Indianapolis. This is the No. 1 team by SP+ after all.
Best odds: -3000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 96.77%
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Oregon
No team has a clearer path to the playoff than the Ducks. They'll be double-digit favorites in every remaining regular season game on their schedule, and will likely win out and earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship.
At that point, win or lose, they'll be a lock to make the College Football Playoff. It's basically a question of whether they win the conference championship to earn the No. 1 seed and a bye, or lose and end up the highest-seeded at-large team and host a first-round playoff game.
Best odds: -4000 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 97.56%
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Indiana
New Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers ranked in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 and positioned to earn a bid in the CFP. Indiana has to play Michigan, Ohio State, and Purdue still, but as long as it wins two of those there's almost no way it can be left out.
Even a 10-2 Hoosiers team would still have a case to make the playoff - especially if they put up a fight against Ohio State - with the way the program has steamrolled every team on its schedule.
Best odds: -200 via bet365 | Implied probability: 66.67%
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Penn State
Could the Big Ten be the only conference to have four teams selected for the College Football Playoff? I think so because Penn State will be a double-digit favorite in its remaining games and it's only loss would be to the potential No. 1 seed Buckeyes.
The Nittany Lions definitely haven't played up to their potential for most of the season, but going 11-1 in a premier conference is enough for the committee to put them in.
Best odds: -294 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 74.62%
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SEC
Georgia
The Bulldogs have arguably the highest-quality win of the season on their resume with their victory over Texas. And if they beat Ole Miss and Tennessee on their way to winning the SEC Championship, they'll have a strong chance of taking the No. 1 seed if Oregon loses.
The loss to Alabama was tough, but the SEC has been eating itself alive this season, which is why I think the Big Ten ends up with more playoff bids. At worst, Georgia can probably lose another regular season game and get in as an at-large.
Best odds: -2000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 95.24%
Texas
I think Texas is one of the toughest teams to project, mainly because it could end up anywhere from the No. 1 seed to one of the last teams in. If the Longhorns beat Texas A&M and win out, they'll likely get a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship.
The Longhorns are also the No. 2 team by SP+ and their lone regular season loss is to the team expected to win the most competitive conference in the country. A 10-2/11-2 record should get Texas in no matter what.
Best odds: -1250 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 92.59%
Tennessee
There's essentially five SEC teams fighting for this spot in the College Football Playoff. But while Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss all already have two losses, Tennessee has just one.
Thanks to a ferocious defense, the Volunteers are well positioned to go 10-2 with that second loss being on the road against Georgia. Tennessee also has a win over Alabama, which is most likely the other team the committee would be considering here.
Best odds: -225 via Caesars | Implied probability: 69.23%
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ACC
Miami
Thanks to Ward's heroics, Miami is undefeated and in good shape to close out the regular season at 12-0. At that point, the Hurricanes will essentially be a lock to make the College Football Playoff and would be playing for a bye in the ACC Championship.
The ACC has been far weaker than the Big Ten and SEC this season, but I think it's pretty clear that the Hurricanes have the talent to be a threat in the College Football Playoff. But would they beat SMU in the ACC Championship?
Best odds: -1000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 90.91%
SMU
The Mustangs might be the most underrated Top 25 program in the country. A slow start made them an after thought, but their only loss was on Sept. 6 by three points to a BYU team that's expected to win the Big 12 - that's one of the highest-quality losses in the country.
I think SMU is the best CFP bet at this point with these plus money odds paying a $13 profit on a $10 winning bet. The Mustangs are likely double-digit favorites in their remaining regular season games and could give Miami a scare in the ACC title game.
Best odds: +130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 43.48%
Group of Five
Boise State
It hasn't really been talked about much, but Boise State could actually earn a bye. Since the announcement of the CFP format, it's been assumed that the highest-ranked G5 conference champ that gets in will be the No. 12 seed.
However, the Broncos have a Heisman candidate in Jeanty, only lost to Oregon on a walk-off field goal, and should end up 12-1 with the Mountain West title. Would the committee consider giving the Broncos the No. 4 seed over the Big 12 champ?
Best odds: -238 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 70.41%
Big 12
BYU
Unlike the other three Power 4 conferences, the Big 12 doesn't have a blue blood program that's been getting all the attention. Instead, BYU is leading the conference after being predicted to finish near the bottom over the summer.
With Iowa State and Kansas State both losing in Week 10 and having to play each other in their final regular season game, the Cougars are in pole position to reach the CFP. If BYU wins out, it will face either the winner of the Wildcats and Cyclones' game or Colorado in the conference championship.
I'm not overly confident in any one team in the Big 12, but BYU has been the most consistent.
Best odds: +110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.62%
Notre Dame
Though Notre Dame is unable to earn a bye since it's not in a conference, it's going to be hard for the committee to leave the Fighting Irish out, even with the loss to Northern Illinois.
Marcus Freeman's team has a quality win over Texas A&M, blew out a ranked Navy team, and can add another ranked win to its resume when it plays Army. Unless the Fighting Irish get pants'd again, an 11-1 record will easily be enough to get in.
Best odds: -222 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 68.94%
College Football Playoff FAQs
Who is the favorite to make the College Football Playoff?
Oregon has the shortest odds to make the 2025 College Football Playoff. The Ducks' shortest odds are -5000, implying a 98.04% probability they will make the playoff, according to our odds calculator.
How many teams make the College Football Playoff?
Previously only four teams were selected for the College Football Playoff, but this season the playoff will expand to 12 teams. The top five ranked conference champions will be automatic qualifiers for the playoff along with seven at-large teams, decided by the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The top four conference champions will receive a first-round bye in the playoff with the committee seeding the remaining teams from No. 5 to 12.
How does the College Football Playoff work?
The 2025 College Football Playoff starts with the first round on Dec. 20 and 21, with games being played at the campus of the higher seed or a location of their choice. The quarterfinals will then be played across the Fiesta, Peach, Rose, and Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The semifinals take place Jan. 9 and 10 at the Orange and Cotton Bowl before the CFP National Championship game on Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
Why is the College Football Playoff expanding?
After a decade of the four-team College Football Playoff, the CFP is expanding in an effort to give more teams an opportunity to compete for the national title. This comes on the heels of an undefeated power conference champion (Florida State) being left out last year.
Expansion will also guarantee at least on Group of Five program a playoff spot - just one G5 school was selected to the four-team playoff during its 10 years. This theoretically makes the season that much more meaningful for all 134 teams, given that every program has at least a sliver of a chance to make the playoff.
Which 12 teams would have been in the College Football Playoff bracket last year with expansion?
Using last year's College Football Playoff rankings, we can see which 12 teams would have qualified for the CFP if expansion had taken place a year earlier. The four power conference champs that would have received byes would have been Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama with Liberty being the G5 champion automatic qualifier.
The other seven teams based on the CFP rankings following conference championship weekend would have been Florida State, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Missouri, Penn State, and Ole Miss.
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