70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[mrtsummit]

I have played all your hockey pick that I've seen. Today I went big on your first period over, and it hit again!!
You are the man !!!!

[Full-Grown]

Thanks for the hockey pick 70kgman.

[dume walker]

Great call on the NJ/Bos 1st period. Especially since they didn't score at all in the 2nd.

[70kgman]

I think you can count on some defense being played in this one.

Boston / Miami Under 89.5 2H

[70kgman]

New York / Indiana Over 108.5 2H

[70kgman]

I am done with basketball until the playoffs. Should of just shut it down last weekend like I originally planned on doing.

[dume walker]

Congratulations on and thank you for a stellar regular season, K-Man.

Looking forward to your playoff picks and any more hockey gems you care to throw our way.

But especially looking forward to your next season NBA model plays. Way to go, buddy.

[70kgman]

Congratulations on and thank you for a stellar regular season, K-Man.

Looking forward to your playoff picks and any more hockey gems you care to throw our way.

But especially looking forward to your next season NBA model plays. Way to go, buddy.

Was nice to have you around as from beginning until end. You were practically the only person posting in the thread for the first three months or so.

[70kgman]

Here are the final numbers on the "official" posted plays this regular season. Kind of tainted the percentages a bit this week by forcing some plays on unpredicatable last week of the season games my common sense told me to avoid but I didn't listen, but still pleased with the overall results. Should be better next year. It wasn't until about January this year when I really felt like I had the kinks worked out in my model and really knew what I was doing entirely.


Model plays: 122-79 (60.6%)
2H wagers: 71-39 (64.5%)
----------
overall: 193-118 (62%)

*Note: 9 of those 118 losses were unders that won in regulation, but went to OT. Only won 1 wager all year because of OT on the flip side of that.

[Soon2BRich]

thats a great record and congrats on a great season. Its just a shame that i found your thread late but hopefully you'll be back for the next NBA season or maybe even start dong the mlb games when you're ready. 62%?

[sharlataans]

Good man good work!!

[dude_bg]

70kgman, i have always admired your work, wish i could have some grounds on which i can build a model.

But i never realized that you were hitting over 60 %. This is huge, even on flat betting it would have meant like 60-70 units profit

Respect for that!

[aussieH]

Great thread. Only discovered late as well but seems to be a great capper and great bloke. Thanks for sharing and will be following in the future

[Etegus]

Fantastic stats dude

[greva]

Amazing!!

Will definately tune in next year

[cint2cint]

Congrats guy, keep up the good work

[Nookx]

Great job this year. Maybe in the offseason work on using a kelly betting system to increase your profits even more? Just an idea.

[70kgman]

hopefully you'll be back for the next NBA season or maybe even start dong the mlb games when you're ready. 62%?

If I am able to devote as much time to capping and being "around" to maintain a day to day thread next year as I was this year, I certainly will get another thread going.

And no guarantee's on the baseball prop model I mentioned. All it really is right now is something that I think looks good in concept and did pretty well in the 3 or 4 weeks I screwed around with it at the end of last baseball season. Only going to play and/or post the plays if I can gather enough evidence over the next couple months that would make me believe they will win a lot more than they lose long term.

Great job this year. Maybe in the offseason work on using a kelly betting system to increase your profits even more? Just an idea.

Around January, I did actually switch from flat betting to betting a percentage of my starting bankroll for each play that day instead. Ended up making a lot more that way.

[Cuno144]

are your official posts only NBA or do you include NHL also?

[70kgman]

are your official posts only NBA or do you include NHL also?

The records I posted are NBA only.

[nickos86]

Cheers for the $$ 70kgman. You did some very good work this year and the model is looking tip-top.

[cint2cint]

Good luck today, doing well.

[Dan Kelly]

Do you like Van in the series laying 2 - 1. Or is that too dear?

[70kgman]

Do you like Van in the series laying 2 - 1. Or is that too dear?

I thought it was a little steep. Vancouver play in by far the worst division in hockey, so their great regular season record and stats are a little misleading. And on the flip side, Chicago aren't your typical #8 seed. Defending cup champs and they come out of a very tough division. Vancouver certainly should be the favorite to win the series, but I just don't really see the value in the -200 to -240 series prices I have seen for Vancouver. They didn't have much success against Chicago in the regular season either, they split the 4-game regular season series, and Chicago's backup goalie was in net for both of Vancouver's wins.

[70kgman]

I am playing Tampa Bay to win series (+125), and Tampa Bay in game one (+135).

[cint2cint]

So with you on Tampa Bay. GL

[twelvejewelz]

thanks 70kg, What do you think about the over in the tampa bay game 1?

[70kgman]

thanks 70kg, What do you think about the over in the tampa bay game 1?

Don't have any strong opinion on the total. I don't play many O/U wagers outside Bruins games.

[ManBearPig]

I see all these games tonight and can't trust any of the stats I see because I don't have a clue who's gonna bring it - prob end up sittin most of them out I suppose.

[70kgman]

I see all these games tonight and can't trust any of the stats I see because I don't have a clue who's gonna bring it - prob end up sittin most of them out I suppose.

Yup. Exactly why I have already quit NBA until the playoffs. 90% of the games the past couple weeks have been one of the following...

a. Little to no defense. Basically equivalent to all star game defensive efforts where both teams shoot over 55%+ from start to finish. Early in the season you might see a team shoot 60% over a full game sample size maybe once a month. Lately I have been seeing it at least once a day.

b. Playoff teams rest their stars, and their reserves play the entire game and you see exactly why they are reserves. They shoot 30% for the game.

c. A combination of A and B within the same game. Sometimes involving one team, sometimes involving both teams.

So, basically a nightmare for a math capper. Pace becomes irrelevant. It is just Russian Roulette trying to predict totals over the last couple weeks of the regular season with stats or math. Probably would be wise to sit out the rest of the regular season like I am doing.

[mrtsummit]

Any thoughts on hockey tonight??

[70kgman]

Not going to play any of the hockey games tonight.

I am taking the under 5 in game 2 for NYR/WAS (+100) and ANH/NAS (+105) on Friday. Both those games were really tight defensively in game 1 with very few scoring chances. Should carry over to game 2.

And still deciding whether I want to take Tampa in game 2 at +120, or just take the updated series price of +190 instead.

[dume walker]

Around January, I did actually switch from flat betting to betting a percentage of my starting bankroll for each play that day instead. Ended up making a lot more that way.

Hey, K-Man. If it's not too much trouble could you describe how your percentage betting strategy worked?

[cint2cint]

Best of luck next days guys!

[70kgman]

Hey, K-Man. If it's not too much trouble could you describe how your percentage betting strategy worked?

I just started betting to win 3% of my starting available bankroll on that day for each play.

So hypothetically, if I had a bankroll of $10,000 and had 3 wagers that day. They would all be $330 to win $300. If all 3 won, new bankroll would be $10,900, and the next day my wagers would be $359.70 to win $327. If all 3 lost, new bankroll would be $9010 and the next day my wagers would be $297.33 to win $270.30. ect...

I really didn't put much thought into coming up with the 3% figure to be honest. Just kind of picked a number that seemed conservative enough given that I don't play too many games on a day to day basis. Was planning on going back to flat betting for the playoffs though, since I probably wont have many plays.

I guess that method is good if you don't have a lot of money to deposit into the book to begin with. And I guess it depends on how often you like to withdraw as well. If I had a ton a money to start with, I would probably prefer just to flat bet and cash out any profits at the end of each month or something along those lines. But I didn't have a lot of money to invest into getting started this season, so percentage betting and just waiting until the season was over to start withdrawing made more sense for me.