70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[nickos86]

Yeh I got juiced -114 to get that +0.5 but worth it.

You are right 70kg, Over was the correct call %wise as I said.
I meant it looked like he was on the winning side the whole way we were chatting, just condolences.

[70kgman]

I know I said I was going to avoid playing any more unders on games involving non-playoff teams, but the number on this 1st half line is too good to pass up. Still a good play at 102.5 where most books have it at. That is the only game I am going to play today. The lines opened out of my comfort zone on the others I was thinking of playing.

4/3

1st Half: Orlando / Toronto Under 103

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NBA Model: 119-78-3
2H wagers: 70-36

[GarbageMan]

Can only get 102, would that still make it a play?

[70kgman]

Can only get 102, would that still make it a play?

I would still feel comfortable playing it at 102.

[GarbageMan]

Cheers mate

[70kgman]

Voided the 1H over in the PHO/SA game (which looked great statistically) because Nash being out. Still easily went over.

[Soon2BRich]

hey 70kgman, great record with the totals, keep it up bro . i was just wondering is this your first season capping on this site?

[70kgman]

hey 70kgman, great record with the totals, keep it up bro . i was just wondering is this your first season capping on this site?

It is the first time I have a created a season long thread on this site, yes.

[Dan Kelly]

I know I said I was going to avoid playing any more unders on games involving non-playoff teams, but the number on this 1st half line is too good to pass up. Still a good play at 102.5 where most books have it at. That is the only game I am going to play today. The lines opened out of my comfort zone on the others I was thinking of playing.

4/3

1st Half: Orlando / Toronto Under 103

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NBA Model: 119-78-3
2H wagers: 70-36

KeeLoe,
Another great handicapping job -
Thanks again - u da MAN

[nickos86]

Cheers!

[NEOHsports4life]

Nice job! 70kgman

[70kgman]

Thanks for the points Nick.

Ended up voiding 6 plays today that passed through my model as good plays because the number on the line was slightly past my cutoff number, or injuries. Looks like all 6 of them are going to win as well (assuming NY/CLE goes over, which it should easily). Doh'. Bittersweet when that happens, which has been a lot lately.

[p00t13tan]

good job once again! i never get tired of saying that 70

[Soon2BRich]

hey 70kgman, do you cap baseball totals as well or just nba?

[70kgman]

hey 70kgman, do you cap baseball totals as well or just nba?

Only do hoops totals. I did start building and tweaking a MLB model that revolved around the prop bet "will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?" last season that seemed promising but I never really followed through with. I will probably revisit that model this year. If the early season results pan out well, I would probably start playing them for real money and consider opening a thread to post them in.

[p00t13tan]

i hope it does pan out so we can get money in baseball too

[70kgman]

I like Boston/NY Rangers under 5 (+100) tonight. Both these teams play a similar defensive neutral zone trap style of play. Every time these two teams play it always ends up in a boring low scoring game with very few quality scoring chances. Both their powerplay's are running ice cold at the moment as well. I would wait to get confirmation that Thomas is in goal before locking it in though (he most likely will be). Rask has been giving up way too many softies this year to trust in any under 5 situation.

[dume walker]

When and how can we know who's locked in as goalie?

[70kgman]

When and how can we know who's locked in as goalie?

The "Bruins Blog" on the right side of this page usually lists who the starting goalie is before any other source. http://www.boston.com/sports/hockey/...ortsNav_Bruins

If not, I can post a confirmation of who is in goal at 7:00 when the pre-game show starts. edit: Actually, cant do this. Game is on VS tonight, not the local channel.

[dume walker]

Thanks, K. I'm not a hockey fan. Though my goddaughter is quite the star. Started for Middlebury and I believe is currently on a Swedish pro team.

I'll check this out before game time. BOL tonight.

I also assume you're going to be watching Butler/UConn for a possible second half play. I'll be checking in on that.

[70kgman]

Thanks, K. I'm not a hockey fan. Though my goddaughter is quite the star. Started for Middlebury and I believe is currently on a Swedish pro team.

I'll check this out before game time. BOL tonight.

I also assume you're going to be watching Butler/UConn for a possible second half play. I'll be checking in on that.

That is awesome. Hockey was the sport I played, hung up the skates after a couple years of college hockey. One of the guys that was on my high school team ended up getting signed by the NY Rangers, and later the Montreal Canadiens. I think he has spent the last few years playing over in Germany.

[dume walker]

FWIW... There's a nice little cafe in Malibu that I like to go to for Sunday morning breakfast called Coogies. Real low profile but some fun customers from time to time. Adam Sandler and his kids were in one of the corner booths the other day. Reason I mention it, one time I saw Gretzky there having breakfast with his wife Janet Jones and their kids. Another time there were two guys -- had to be LA Kings when they won the championship -- who brought the Stanley Cup in with them. Just had it there at their table and let people come up and pose for snapshots with it. Life in LA...

[mrtsummit]

Sounds pretty good!!!

[70kgman]

FWIW... There's a nice little cafe in Malibu that I like to go to for Sunday morning breakfast called Coogies. Real low profile but some fun customers from time to time. Adam Sandler and his kids were in one of the corner booths the other day. Reason I mention it, one time I saw Gretzky there having breakfast with his wife Janet Jones and their kids. Another time there were two guys -- had to be LA Kings when they won the championship -- who brought the Stanley Cup in with them. Just had it there at their table and let people come up and pose for snapshots with it. Life in LA...

LA has never won the cup so had to be a player from the Stanley cup winning team who resides in the LA area. I think every player from the winning team gets to take it home with them for a few days each or something like that in the offseason.

p.s Thomas confirmed as Boston's starting goalie.

[sbearc820]

70kgman do you have any opinion on the National Championship game?

[70kgman]

70kgman do you have any opinion on the National Championship game?

Couldn't find any value or even a lean on the 1H or game total. The lines seemed really spot on. Don't really have any kind of strong opinion on the spread/ML either.

[mrtsummit]

Do you have any plays today?

[70kgman]

Was planning to take this final week of the season off from the model plays, but I feel pretty good about playing these two tonight.

4/5

1st Half: Memphis / LA Clippers Under 101

Toronto / New York Over 221

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NBA Model: 120-78-3
2H wagers: 70-36

[mrtsummit]

Thanks !!

[cc440unn]

thx

[nickos86]

[cint2cint]

Good luck today .

[JOHON8]

I'll tail you on the 1st half line, GL.

[Sunde91]

70kgman wins every single time before the ball is even tipped.

I have never seen someone consistently KILL the closer like he does.

[Soon2BRich]

I'll tail you on the 1st half line, GL.

yeah me too. 221 is alot of points even though its 2 teams that dont partucularly play defence but good luck on both play 70kgman