70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[dume walker]

Another great night, K-Man. Thanks for the winners.

[GarbageMan]

Cheers for the pick 70kg, just found your thread and wish I'd found it earlier

[sbearc820]

Thanks for the plays!

[70kgman]

3/28

1st Half: Indiana / Boston Under 96

1st Half: Charlotte / Milwaukee Over 89

Indiana / Boston Under 188

------
NBA Model: 117-75-3
2H wagers: 65-35

[GarbageMan]

Cheers for the picks mate will be tailing
Do you flat bet all your picks btw?

[70kgman]

Cheers for the picks mate will be tailing
Do you flat bet all your picks btw?

I don't necessarily flat bet, but I do not assign different values to my wagers, they all get played for the same amount on each individual day.

[cc440unn]

thx for the 2d picks dude. im playing them all

[p00t13tan]

thanx for the picks

[Nerekuzey7]

Celtics 2Q D killed that BOS-IND 1H total. The Celtics D hasn't been the same since the trade.

[70kgman]

Both teams shot around 60% in that 1st half. Pace was good, set up for roughly an 85 point 1st half or so. Nothing you can do about shooting percentages that extreme. Game under is probably toast too.

[cc440unn]

1/ 3 tonight....not a problem. will be winner with you on the long term for sure.


gl tomorrow

[70kgman]

1-2 tonight. Picked a bad night to commit two under wagers to one fluky shooting game. I read that was the highest FG% against Boston's defense has allowed all season, and their own FG% was even higher than what they allowed. No model plays tomorrow. Wednesday is a big card, should have something then.

[cc440unn]

good....see you wednesday

gl

[phongmaxim]

good night 70kgman

[cc440unn]

but in fact. you only made one error. becozz if the 1H under 96 is looser. the all game under 187.5 will probably be looser too

[Dan Kelly]

1-2 tonight. Picked a bad night to commit two under wagers to one fluky shooting game. I read that was the highest FG% against Boston's defense has allowed all season, and their own FG% was even higher than what they allowed. No model plays tomorrow. Wednesday is a big card, should have something then.

? - How dynamic is your model, i.e., does your modeling account for recent cataclysmic changes in team personnel (e.g., Duncan Parker Ginoblli OUT, Kendrick Perkins tough 'D' is gone, Melo brings no D and poorer offensive spacing, Ty Corbin v. Jerry Sloan, etc.) - maybe raise the exponent on the exponential moving average when drastic changes occur. Is there a non-technical way to decide which model picks not to play? Or maybe there is just no way to get fundamental analysis melded into technical analysis and if the model hits +60% then you just don't mess with it.

Thanks for all your work and insight. You should probably charge for access to your thread - I would pay $1 or $2 a month for it.

[70kgman]

? - How dynamic is your model, i.e., does your modeling account for recent cataclysmic changes in team personnel (e.g., Duncan Parker Ginoblli OUT, Kendrick Perkins tough 'D' is gone, Melo brings no D and poorer offensive spacing, Ty Corbin v. Jerry Sloan, etc.) - maybe raise the exponent on the exponential moving average when drastic changes occur. Is there a non-technical way to decide which model picks not to play? Or maybe there is just no way to get fundamental analysis melded into technical analysis and if the model hits +60% then you just don't mess with it.

Thanks for all your work and insight. You should probably charge for access to your thread - I would pay $1 or $2 a month for it.

I take into account all that stuff. My model isn't so black and white, "model based wagers" would be a more accurate term for my plays. It more or less just recommends potential good plays that I research further, crunch the numbers, and make a decision on. I actually end up voiding over half the plays my model recommends for one reason or another. The 1H over in the GS/OKC game showed up as a good play today on my model, but I wouldn't touch it at 110.5. Way too adjusted. No value left in it at that number. Other things concern me about that game going over as well.

Boston and Indiana both had averaged barely over 40% shooting in each of their last two games combined, so it was just fluky bad luck both teams suddenly shot 55% each in that game. The pace favored the under. It happens, it's just variance. As long as I keep playing games where the percentages are in my favor, I will keep winning a lot more than I lose. My 62% winning percentage over a 295 game sample size in this thread speaks for itself.

[Dan Kelly]

bet analysis

I enjoy discussing this stuff - but if you are busy that's fine, I learn something just typing my thoughts out.

One of the reasons I asked that previous post is that I am keeping an excel spreadsheet of all nba quarters and I'm coming up with pretty good bets lately (not so good earlier in the season - blame it on sample size), and like I mentioned once before a lot of times my picks jive with yours. Last night my charts had Bos/Ind Under in the 2nd half but not the the 1st half or the game, so I was rooting for a big 1st half (nothing personal) so I could get a good line - like they say 'be careful what you wish 4' because I lost a strong play on that 2nd half eventhough I got my set up. I know a bettor has to take the losers with the winners, but I was trying to figure if I missed something there - your reply is very helpful.

Tonight I have a strong play on Mia (-3.5) in the 2nd Quarter - it's about as strong as that 2nd half last night.

ALWAYS BOL

[Sunde91]

I believe this to be one of, if not thee, best threads I've seen over any sports betting forum, and it is grossly unappreciated.

I have not consistently tailed (mostly cause I don't see in time or would have to play a # that's moved 2 points, which is common with 70kg beating closer with sharp #s), but should/will, and those who have and have been given 62% winners should be donating decent points for this...62% for 300 plays is insane.

How many years have you done this? Have you gotten over 55% consistently with a comparable # of plays?

Keep up the excellent work

[Dan Kelly]

My 62% winning percentage over a 295 game sample size in this thread speaks for itself.

There are many qualities that recommend your thread. Of course, it is great because of the winning pct., but what makes it the best one I've seen on SBR is its clarity and integrity - most of the threads I have read through are silly, or the handicappers are shills for the books, or they're full of b.s. Are there any blogs or threads that you frequent?

[70kgman]

Last night my charts had Bos/Ind Under in the 2nd half but not the the 1st half or the game, so I was rooting for a big 1st half (nothing personal) so I could get a good line -

A high scoring 1st half isn't really going to get you a better 2nd half line on the under. 2nd half total lines are rarely adjusted more than a point or so off what they were before the game started. If a 2H line is 96 pre-game (game total minus the 1H total), then no matter what happens in the 1st half, it is still likely going to open at 96 when the 2H lines come out at halftime, maybe 95.5 or 96.5 depending on the book.

[70kgman]

Are there any blogs or threads that you frequent?

I browse the forum every day and keep an eye on some of the other cappers that seem to be doing well to see what they are playing, mainly out of curiosity, doesn't really affect what I play or do not play myself though.

[GarbageMan]

I believe this to be one of, if not thee, best thread I've seen over any sports betting forum, and it is grossly unappreciated.

I have not consistently tailed (mostly cause I don't see in time or would have to play a # that's moved 2 points, which is common with 70kg beating closer with sharp #s), but should/will, and those who have and have been given 62% winners should be donating decent points for this...62% for 300 plays is insane.

How many years have you done this? Have you gotten over 55% consistently with a comparable # of plays?

Good Work

[Dan Kelly]

A high scoring 1st half isn't really going to get you a better 2nd half line on the under. 2nd half total lines are rarely adjusted more than a point or so off what they were before the game started. If a 2H line is 96 pre-game (game total minus the 1H total), then no matter what happens in the 1st half, it is still likely going to open at 96 when the 2H lines come out at halftime, maybe 95.5 or 96.5 depending on the book.

More like I was hoping for regression to a shooting pct mean (I wonder how often that happens between halves...) than getting a better line - My spreadsheet has all the 2nd half lines and the formula is pretty simple to figure for when I don't get to input them.

The simplicity of that 2nd half line formula is one reason why bettors can get an advantage on 2nd halves - the book seldom strays from it and might not have time to take into account pertinent 1st half info.

[70kgman]

I believe this to be one of, if not thee, best threads I've seen over any sports betting forum, and it is grossly unappreciated.

I have not consistently tailed (mostly cause I don't see in time or would have to play a # that's moved 2 points, which is common with 70kg beating closer with sharp #s), but should/will, and those who have and have been given 62% winners should be donating decent points for this...62% for 300 plays is insane.

How many years have you done this? Have you gotten over 55% consistently with a comparable # of plays?

Keep up the excellent work

Thanks for the compliment.

Been gambling for 6 years or so. Started out mainly was a hockey capper. Used to post my hockey plays on the covers forum 3-4 years ago.

Got into model building a few years ago. Last season was my first year I started using this NBA model (at least an early version of it, I tweak it as I go along), finished just over 60% with it last season, though the sample size was only about 70 games or so. I didn't play 1st halfs last season. Building a 1H version of my model was a spur of the moment thing I decided to try out a few weeks into this season, which turned out good, my 1H plays are 62-34 (64.5%).

This is my first year capping 2H totals, and they are becoming my favorite type of wagers to bet on. Easy to find soft lines, and there is very little work involved (unlike my model), basically just reading and analyzing halftime box scores combined with some common sense and knowledge gained through repetition. Looking forward to a full season of 2H totals next season, I didn't really start playing them seriously or consistently this year until late January.

Hoops totals make up the bulk of my gambling nowadays. Mainly a spot bettor in other sports. Never really kept a record of those plays. I am sure I win more than I lose though.

Have some irons in the fire with other models and stuff in other sports I am working on, but nothing I feel confident playing for real money yet.

[sharlataans]

70kgman, good work pal.

I started building hoops betting helper tool, but I am short of quality time so now it is on hold.
For now it is very simplified version, and only European basketball.
I was looking for guys with knowledge who could help me to build the AI.

http://labako.lv/hoopspredictor

If it says there are not active games, try refreshing after 2 minutes or so. If still no games, you are probably in wrong time zone

I have also started an analysis tool for MLB over/under bets. I hope I get something done some day.

[ManBearPig]

This is no disrespect to SJ because he's doing a service to a lot of people, but I think his thread soaks up a lot of the clowns and let's this thread work in peace so that real conversations can take place. I think most casual gamblers, for the lack of a better phrase, aren't interested in system plays and especially system plays involving totals so they don't really pay too much attention here although 70k has been spitting out winners since I've come across this.

I don't post much here but I like this thread because it's peaceful and there's not a ton of clutter from people carrying on all day about every little thing that just becomes a dick-wagging contest anyways. I do browse the Think Tank at times, but those guys come off so brash that they turn me off to even trying to engage them. They think they're so "elite" or something and don't have time for people's dumb questions and they are some really smart guys, but they have no people skills whatsoever and don't really seem to care so I don't waste my time.

When I started getting into this again this year I gravitated towards the model approach and so I've been trying to get the modeling thing down to try and develop my own totals model. I find it fascinating to hear about what other people doing a similar things think. By their own admission, the books acknowledge that their totals can be exploited and aren't as sharp as their sides, so why not try to find ways to exploit them. I think totals are a good place to start and will probably expand to other sports and areas as I gather more and more data, but right now I'm in an information gathering stage and need a jumping off point. If I've learned anything it's that I have a ton of books to read and some statistical methods to catch up on because this isn't as easy as you may think and it takes a lot of work to get something useable.

[Shifty107]

GL today KG. Liking the under in NJ.

[p00t13tan]

i read alot of the other cappers threads and find some of them ridiculous! this is the only thread like manbear said that is peacefull with no idiots flooding it with their little rants about nothing. keep up the good work 70kg i appreciate the time and effort you put into helping us bettors out.

[70kgman]

Miami / Cleveland Under 97.5 2H

[phongmaxim]

gosh i got it at u97 so push... good call 70kgman

[70kgman]

gosh i got it at u97 so push... good call 70kgman

Tough break. It shouldn't of even reached 97. Miami kept intentionally fouling in the final minute down by 10-12, ended up being 10 points scored in that final minute of the game.

[Dan Kelly]

Miami / Cleveland Under 97.5 2H

Thanks again.

[phongmaxim]

Tough break. It shouldn't of even reached 97. Miami kept intentionally fouling in the final minute down by 10-12, ended up being 10 points scored in that final minute of the game.

it was a relief that it didnt went over...

[Qtip]

That 3 at the end of the third was a joke... Lebron took what, 4 or 5 steps? Drives me nuts how they won't call a travel on Lebronze, almost ruined the under.