70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

70kgman · 06-23-11, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

I got into it because I notice that teams with leads in the 1H typically don't extend them in the 2H and in a lot of cases seem to lose these leads and barely hold on for the win. In only 36% of the games played this season has one team won both halves.

I have noticed that as well, but more as it relates to totals. In NBA, a good sized lead by the favorite at halftime was usually something that favored the under. But in WNBA, the team that is trailing large usually comes back, speeding up the 2H pace in the process. And those games with large halftime leads have been easily going over the 2H total, this afternoon's game being a perfect example of that trend.

ManBearPig · 06-23-11, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

I have noticed that as well, but more as it relates to totals. In NBA, a good sized lead by the favorite at halftime was usually something that favored the under. But in WNBA, the team that is trailing large usually comes back, speeding up the 2H pace in the process. And those games with large halftime leads have been easily going over the 2H total, this afternoon's game being a perfect example of that trend.

Haha...today's game was what got me thinking about this trend. I've noticed over the last couple weeks, while losing, that what seemed to be a win in the 1H would turn into a loss in the 2H due to the change of pace or the inability to hold the lead. So I wanted to see if there was any correlation with a low/high 1H vs low/high 2H. Glad to see I'm following a similar thought pattern that you are seeing how you're the resident expert on these types of plays

I think there is something there that may be able to be exploited short-term either way it's worth looking in to.

Love The Action · 06-23-11, 08:49 PM

My research shows the same. Lower 1h scoring and higher 2h scoring. I have always thought this because very often, 1h totals are often less than half the game total as though the books are inviting action on 1h overs. Now, we know why. 2h scoring killed my under in NY/Tulsa this morning and the Seattle/Tulsa under from a few days ago. Let's just hope it helps my game over for tonight's Chicago game.

Glad to see 70kg back in the game...good luck on everyone's plays tomorrow.

ManBearPig · 06-23-11, 09:26 PM

Yup, in both games today the 2H was higher scoring than the first. The team that outscored the other in the 1H won the 2H. Now, if I only had the half numbers...totals/spreads. I'm not sure if any/all books offer ML plays (I can't remember looking to be honest), but that seems like a small gold mine to make some cash. Just blindly betting the other side to win the 2H on the ML this season would cash out at 64%.

Edit: The Sky ended up outscoring the Sun in the 2H...although it took 2OT's. All those on the Sun took a bad beat.

70kgman · 06-23-11, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

Now, if I only had the half numbers...totals/spreads.

You can check past 2H totals/spreads at sbrodds. Just click on the calender icon to the right of "today", and select the day you want.

ManBearPig · 06-23-11, 11:42 PM

Thanks...I got em'. Didn't realize it was so obvious when I wrote it.

70kgman · 06-24-11, 02:06 PM

1st Half: Minnesota / Seattle Under 74.5

nickos86 · 06-24-11, 10:01 PM

Tip of the hat to you, sir

dume walker · 06-24-11, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

1st Half: Minnesota / Seattle Under 74.5

Strong call, K-Man. Thanks for the winner.

truanswer · 06-25-11, 11:06 AM

what is ur record so far with wnba

70kgman · 06-25-11, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by truanswer

what is ur record so far with wnba

5 - 5.

Got off to a bad start while I was getting used to a league I had never bet before, but have most of the kinks worked out and have won 4 of the last 5 now.

sharlataans · 06-26-11, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by 70kgman

5 - 5.

Got off to a bad start while I was getting used to a league I had never bet before, but have most of the kinks worked out and have won 4 of the last 5 now.

70kgman · 06-26-11, 10:32 AM

1st half: New York / LA Over 76.5

New York / LA Over 158.5

70kgman · 06-26-11, 04:05 PM

2H: Tulsa / Washington Over 78.5

70kgman · 06-28-11, 06:57 PM

2H: Phoenix / Indiana Under 88

70kgman · 06-30-11, 07:40 PM

2H: NY / Atlanta Over 84

70kgman · 07-01-11, 12:09 PM

1st Half: Seattle / Connecticut Under 73.5

dume walker · 07-01-11, 12:17 PM

GL tonight, K. Pissed off that I missed last night's winner.

70kgman · 07-01-11, 01:05 PM

Going to add one more.

1st Half: Chicago / Phoenix Under 86

70kgman · 07-01-11, 01:41 PM

It is going to suck if there is no NBA next season. Even a shortened season would be bad for me. Last season, it took two months or so before the numbers truly rounded out and my plays started winning on any kind of consistent basis and consistently profiting on a week to week basis. It was just kind of win some/lose some, hot streak/cold streak the first 8 weeks of the season. Luckily, I have been working on a NCAAB 1H ATS model or whatever you want to call it behind the scenes that looks pretty good. That could end up coming in handy next season if their is a extended NBA lockout.

Love The Action · 07-01-11, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

It is going to suck if there is no NBA next season. Even a shortened season would be bad for me. Last season, it took two months or so before the numbers truly rounded out and my plays started winning on any kind of consistent basis and consistently profiting on a week to week basis. It was just kind of win some/lose some, hot streak/cold streak the first 8 weeks of the season. Luckily, I have been working on a NCAAB 1H ATS model or whatever you want to call it behind the scenes that looks pretty good. That could end up coming in handy next season if their is a extended NBA lockout.

Good luck with your ncaab model...you are going to need it. The two negotiating sides are so far apart and the owners want such a radical change to the financial structure of the league that I would be shocked if they played any games next season. The owners are in this for the long haul and will try to bust the union. Unfortunately, there will not be any nba games next year...

70kgman · 07-01-11, 11:29 PM

Going to call it a day with this WNBA stuff. Waste of time. I cant figure it out, no consistency to this league at all.

dume walker · 07-01-11, 11:53 PM

Thanks for taking the time to give it a shot anyway, K. Let's hope you have a full NBA season in which to do your stuff. Have a great 4th, amigo.

70kgman · 07-02-11, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by dume walker

Thanks for taking the time to give it a shot anyway, K. Let's hope you have a full NBA season in which to do your stuff. Have a great 4th, amigo.

Have a nice holiday as well.

At least if there is no NBA next season, I felt like I had a good grasp on NCAAB 2H totals last season, and beat them at around a 2 of every 3 rate. So will have to fall back on.