70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[70kgman]

Not playing anything tomorrow.

[dume walker]

Bad beat with Atlanta only winning by one, 3-2. Atlanta should of had at least 10 runs in that game. Stranded bases loaded twice, had a guy at 3rd base with less than two outs and didn't score 3 times, had at least one base runner on with one out or less in every single inning except one, Prado hit into 3 double plays alone. So frustrating.

Didn't realize it was that bad of a beat. Had the graphics up on one computer while I worked on the other. Seemed like every time I glanced over Atlanta had men on based. I'd glance over again and see the bases cleared with no runs scored. Now I see why. 3 DP's. Kind of like the MLB equivalent of those NBA totals that were comfortably under then would go into OT and screw us.

Once again, good call, bad beat. As Don Corleone so aptly said, "This is the life we've chosen." On to the next...

[Boxing Champ]

Haha..it's been on the news...some people think that the world is coming to an end next week in what's known as the rapture or the end of times.

If you already play a low amount of games then you should lower your betting amounts or take a couple days of to clear your mind and start fresh. If you really can't do that then you should tail Rogues soccer totals those things are money $$$.

Can you PM me the link to his thread please?? I can't find it...
I don't wanna disrespect 70kgman...
Thanks

[aussieH]

Can you PM me the link to his thread please?? I can't find it...
I don't wanna disrespect 70kgman...
Thanks

Same for me please

[cint2cint]

I like Dallas. Nothing for you?

[ManBearPig]

Can you PM me the link to his thread please?? I can't find it...
I don't wanna disrespect 70kgman...
Thanks

Just look for his $500 to $5000 thread in here...he's also got a WNBA thread as well.

[truanswer]

Who is rogue? I couldn't find him in the soccer thread

[dume walker]

Confusion is in the spelling. His site name is Roag Bettor. Thread is $500 to $5000 in 6 months.

[dume walker]

Actually, a correction to the above post. Roag had to change his name to BoagRettor for who knows what reasons. But that's where you'll find him.

Sorry for clogging up your thread, K. Hopefully, this is all cleared up and we're now back to business.

[70kgman]

Have a couple ideas for the 1st inning prop plays. Did some math with the numbers from my model, came up with...

Overall, individual teams score a 1st inning run 26.8% of the time, which gives a generalized chance of a run being scored in the 1st inning 46.41% on average, which converts to roughly +115 odds.

"No run" lines seem to be juiced a bit higher than they should in general by the books, thinking of possibly isolating all the "YES" bets that are +120 or higher, and coming up with a few basic filters to weed out the most probable ones of the bunch.

What does everyone think? Test it out for a while? Give it a blind trial run? Scrap the idea?

[dume walker]

I'd like to see you post the picks -- stating this model is in beta -- and leave it up to us if we want to get down on them, which I might do for very low units. This way we can all get a sense of how it's working as you take it for a test drive.

Also, does this mean you won't be making "no" bets because of the disproportionately high juice?

[ManBearPig]

Have a couple ideas for the 1st inning prop plays. Did some math with the numbers from my model, came up with... Overall, individual teams score a 1st inning run 26.8% of the time, which gives a generalized chance of a run being scored in the 1st inning 46.41% on average, which converts to roughly +115 odds. "No run" lines seem to be juiced a bit higher than they should in general by the books, thinking of possibly isolating all the "YES" bets that are +120 or higher, and coming up with a few basic filters to weed out the most probable ones of the bunch. What does everyone think? Test it out for a while? Give it a blind trial run? Scrap the idea?

Since there probably isn't any real way to test this from past seasons you have no simple way of validating this. I would simply track them in a spreadsheet right now for at least 50 plays but 100 would probably be better. With 10 gms/day you could get this in a week or two easy. It might be some work, but since these types of plays can't really be looked up you're somewhat limited.

I may be able to play around with some SDQL and find some additional stats on 1st inning scoring, but I'll have to think about it.

[Full-Grown]

Since there probably isn't any real way to test this from past seasons you have no simple way of validating this. I would simply track them in a spreadsheet right now for at least 50 plays but 100 would probably be better. With 10 gms/day you could get this in a week or two easy. It might be some work, but since these types of plays can't really be looked up you're somewhat limited. I may be able to play around with some SDQL and find some additional stats on 1st inning scoring, but I'll have to think about it.

I think this sounds like a great idea. Since I'm a degenerate and I'd probably bet them if you posted them, lol, I think it would be better if you tested it out for a couple weeks and give us your results. Thanks 70kgman.

[aussieH]

Sounds like a good play. I like the fact you are always looking for a system.

[70kgman]

Also, does this mean you won't be making "no" bets because of the disproportionately high juice?

I will still make the usual "NO" wagers. I just meant "NO Run" wagers generally speaking are juiced on the high side with most being in the -120 to -145 range when a generalized "average" converts to -115, there are still plenty of opportunities where laying wagers in that price range are good plays.

Since there probably isn't any real way to test this from past seasons you have no simple way of validating this. I would simply track them in a spreadsheet right now for at least 50 plays but 100 would probably be better. With 10 gms/day you could get this in a week or two easy. It might be some work, but since these types of plays can't really be looked up you're somewhat limited.

You typically only see a few games a day with YES lines +120 or higher. I guess isolating NO wagers that are -110 or lower would also apply under the same concept. After added filters you might get 1-2 plays a day from it. For makeshift filters, probably something involving the two starting pitchers 1st inning WHIP needing to be averagish or worse, and coming up with a rough percentage involving the two teams 1st inning offense which I already have set up in my model anyway.

I guess the idea is sort of similar to what I was doing with 1H totals in hoops. On average, 50.6% of the total points in NBA were scored in the 1st half, so the number on the 1H total being 50.6% of the game total or higher for unders was one of my requirements before I even started to cap it. That way every 1H total I would play would start with at least a hypothetical mathematical edge based on "average".

Like manbear and full-grown said, probably will be better to just track behind the scenes for at least a short while before sending it on a blind test drive, since I probably need some time to come up with filters and then tweak them on the fly.

[ManBearPig]

You are right...I guess it would take a little longer to get enough games to notice any sort of viable pattern. I do like the way you're thinking with this and this sparked something that could maybe be pursued for 5inning or half-game bets,which I think can be exploited. Using simple mathematical approaches to find an edge is fun

[70kgman]

You are right...I guess it would take a little longer to get enough games to notice any sort of viable pattern. I do like the way you're thinking with this and this sparked something that could maybe be pursued for 5inning or half-game bets,which I think can be exploited. Using simple mathematical approaches to find an edge is fun

p.s That 50.6% of total points for NBA scored in 1H detail is a couple seasons old. I don't have a clue where I can find 1H/2H numbers seperately. I would love to get an updated 1H/2H total points breakdown of this NBA season for next year. You wouldn't have access to that info, would you?

[ManBearPig]

p.s That 50.6% of total points for NBA scored in 1H detail is a couple seasons old. I don't have a clue where I can find 1H/2H numbers seperately. I would love to get an updated 1H/2H total points breakdown of this NBA season for next year. You wouldn't have access to that info, would you?

Actually I do know where I can pull that. I can get it by season probably too. Let me see what I can find, it might be a little work.

[70kgman]

Brad Marchand Over 2.5 shots (+120) (5dimes) is a good play tonight in my opinion. Marchand has been averaging pretty much 3 shots per game throughout the playoffs. And Peverly is moving up to the second line with Marchand and Recchi for tonights game, which will make that 2nd line a much faster and more offensive minded line, as opposed to the defensive shut down line it was with Bergeron/Kelly centering it. Also, even though I have no evidence to support it, I have a feeling Julien mixes up his Powerplay units tonight, and think there is a small chance Marchand might be put on the 2nd powerplay unit which would add tons of value to that wager if it happens.

[ManBearPig]

...so here's the last 4 seasons - Pretty consistent across the board.

1H
2010=50.6%
2009=50.8%
2008=50.1%
2007=50%

Obviously the 2H would just be 1-1H. Let me know if that works for you.

[70kgman]

...so here's the last 4 seasons - Pretty consistent across the board.

1H
2010=50.6%
2009=50.8%
2008=50.1%
2007=50%

Obviously the 2H would just be 1-1H. Let me know if that works for you.

Awesome! Thanks. The 50.6% I was using as a general point of reference this year ended up being right on the button.

[aussieH]

So do you use the Over/ Under score at the start of the game to judge how the game is tracking?

[cint2cint]

Good luck for today plays.

[70kgman]

So do you use the Over/ Under score at the start of the game to judge how the game is tracking?

Not really sure what this question is asking. Are you referring to the 1st inning plays? And asking if I take into considering the full game O/U number? If that is what you meant, then the answer is no.

[70kgman]

OAK/MIN - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)
Projected probability: 29.6%

FLA/CHC- Run in 1st Inning? - YES (+100)
Projected probability: 54.03%

---------
1st inning model: 6-6 (-1 units)

[Nova0387]

any stats on todays no score 1st 70? w/e you play gl to you my man

[70kgman]

any stats on todays no score 1st 70? w/e you play gl to you my man

Mccarthy: 1st inning - 0.00 ERA / 0.50 WHIP / allowed 1st inning run 0 of 8 starts

Pavano: 1st inning - .222 BA against - 6 straight games without allowing 1st inning run

Minnesota: .260 OBA, .163 BA in 1st inning (both worst in MLB)

Oakland: Only 12 1st inning runs scored all season (2nd worst in MLB) / 7 straight games without a 1st inning run

------------------

Demster - 1st inning - 12.96 ERA / 2.52 WHIP / Allowed 1st inning run 3 of last 6 starts

Nolasco - 1st inning - 6.75 ERA / Allowed 1st inning run 2 of last 6 starts

Chicago - .359 OBA (3rd best in NL), .293 (2nd best in NL) in 1st inning

Florida - Scored 1st inning run 7 of last 17 games

[Kryptonite]

OAK/MIN - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)
Projected probability: 29.6%

FLA/CHC- Run in 1st Inning? - YES (+100)
Projected probability: 54.03%

---------
1st inning model: 6-6 (-1 units)

Florida cashes

[mrtsummit]

You the man always appreciate the info.

[cint2cint]

good luck today, 70kg

[70kgman]

SF/LAD - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-160)
Projected probability: 26.9%

---------
1st inning model: 7-7 (-1 units)

[70kgman]

I am kind of having second thoughts about these 1st inning plays. Seemed like a good prop to find soft lines on beforehand, but the more I play these, the more I think it is a waste of time. Juiced up lines that seem to be getting inflated more by the day, and dealing with one inning sample sizes means just the tiniest bit of luck (or bad luck) will heavily affect or flat out decide the outcome. You can lose a wager on literally one bad pitch. Starting to think I should devote my time to capping something else for the summer.

[Love The Action]

I cap every sport except hockey....I love mlb. Why not do full game mlb totals? Also, I will be capping my first year of wnba totals this summer, so you may want to look at that as well. Bol...

[sharlataans]

I am kind of having second thoughts about these 1st inning plays. Seemed like a good prop to find soft lines on beforehand, but the more I play these, the more I think it is a waste of time. Juiced up lines that seem to be getting inflated more by the day, and dealing with one inning sample sizes means just the tiniest bit of luck (or bad luck) will heavily affect or flat out decide the outcome. You can lose a wager on literally one bad pitch. Starting to think I should devote my time to capping something else for the summer.

I could not agree more. You have a bit more chance that ODD/EVEN if you do it right

[70kgman]

I cap every sport except hockey....I love mlb. Why not do full game mlb totals? Also, I will be capping my first year of wnba totals this summer, so you may want to look at that as well. Bol...

Yeah. Will probably just stick to the basic MLB wagers from now on. I will post them in here if anyone is interested. Not going to make any claims of being a great MLB capper, but should win more than I lose. More or less just something to keep myself busy and maybe make a few units here and there in between basketball regular seasons.

Do books have 2nd half totals for WNBA games? That could be intriguing.