70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

TheAntFather · 05-04-11, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

Yeah. In the regular season, between NBA and NCAAB I had at least 50+ games a day to choose from, now I am limited to 2 or less games a day with sharp playoff lines. I don't expect to find very many NBA 2H totals I like going forward.

The MLB May system...I have a feeling there wont be too many games that fit the system this year. Last year was "the year of the pitcher". So the totals in general this season seem slightly lower than in years past, and that system only deals with certain totals that are set at 10 or higher.

As far as the MLB "run in first inning" model I mentioned I was working on months ago...So far so good. I guess I can start posting those plays starting this weekend to get some action in this thread. Though if you follow, I would start out with a conservative unit size. It is still in an experimental phase and I am still working out some of the details as I go along. But I like the results I have got so far.

I don't know if this will help 70K. I've been betting all season on No Score 1st Inning and I noticed Left Handed Pitchers more times than not give up a boatload of runs in the 1st Inning. I tend to stay away from a LHP vs. LHP matchup unless they are having Cy Young years. Just my 2 cents.

70kgman · 05-04-11, 08:16 PM

Chicago / Atlanta Over 89 2H

70kgman · 05-04-11, 10:13 PM

Before that game, 8 of the last 9 playoff games where one team was up by 9+ points at halftime ended up going over the 2H total, most of them with ease. I jump on board and it goes 16 points under. Predictable.

I think that is my cue to quit basketball until next season. That is how the playoffs have been going for me so far. I wasn't even planning on betting NBA playoffs in the first place, just felt almost obligated to once a lot of people started showing up in the thread late in the season. Just going to focus on my MLB 1st inning model from now on. Will post them in this thread.

truanswer · 05-04-11, 11:06 PM

how did ur first innings bets do last year?

70kgman · 05-04-11, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by truanswer

how did ur first innings bets do last year?

It is brand new. Tail at own risk.

skm39 · 05-04-11, 11:44 PM

The lines are sharp and it's increasingly difficult to find an edge. Good on you to have discipline and know when to stop. A lot of cappers would continue on and try to win it back but end up losing even more.

Qtip · 05-05-11, 03:58 AM

Originally posted by 70kgman

Before that game, 8 of the last 9 playoff games where one team was up by 9+ points at halftime ended up going over the 2H total, most of them with ease. I jump on board and it goes 16 points under. Predictable.

I think that is my cue to quit basketball until next season. That is how the playoffs have been going for me so far. I wasn't even planning on betting NBA playoffs in the first place, just felt almost obligated to once a lot of people started showing up in the thread late in the season. Just going to focus on my MLB 1st inning model from now on. Will post them in this thread.

Atlanta is a different animal, you could tell they wouldn't get past the 70's after the first half. They aren't really a team that turns it on second half, if they suck in the first they suck in the second. So unless, the bulls were gonna hit 105+... Glad I bet the under before I saw you on the over though or I wouldn't have played it.

cint2cint · 05-05-11, 04:46 AM

BOL on your plays today

70kgman · 05-05-11, 08:41 PM

May MLB system play: New York / Texas Under 10.5

dume walker · 05-05-11, 09:37 PM

BOL on your May MLB plays, K-Man. Let's hope the percentages hold up from previous years.

Qtip · 05-05-11, 10:37 PM

KG, you have a lean on the memphis/okc game total? Trends seem strong towards Over but the 4th q last few games has been very fluky and the lines telling me the Under is the right play. Thoughts?

70kgman · 05-05-11, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by Qtip

KG, you have a lean on the memphis/okc game total? Trends seem strong towards Over but the 4th q last few games has been very fluky and the lines telling me the Under is the right play. Thoughts?

I thought the pace set up for a game in the low to mid 190's in game 2. It was just good shooting, a lot of offensive rebounds, and a lot of fouls that pushed it way over the total. And the linesmakers adjusted the total up another few points to 200 for game 3. So, on one hand, the pace will likely slightly favor the under, but on the other hand, they have been combining to shoot around 48% in the series so far, so can you count on the shooting percentages coming down 4% or so back to averagish, or worse in game 3? Who knows? Line is probably right where it should be considering those two things.

aussieH · 05-06-11, 03:52 AM

Originally posted by 70kgman

May MLB system play: New York / Texas Under 10.5

Is this game tomorrow. Thanks for the pick either way

aussieH · 05-06-11, 03:55 AM

Is that baseball pick for tomorrow. Thanks either way

aussieH · 05-06-11, 04:01 AM

Tomorrow the game is. Keys see how we go. Thanks

cint2cint · 05-06-11, 06:27 AM

Good luck everyone on your bets!

70kgman · 05-06-11, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by aussieH

Is that baseball pick for tomorrow. Thanks either way

It is for Friday, today.

asiangambler · 05-06-11, 11:53 AM

good luck 70kgman thanks for the picks

70kgman · 05-06-11, 11:54 AM

LAD/NYM - Run in 1st Inning - NO (-125)
Projected probability: 39.93%

kingofmonash · 05-06-11, 01:07 PM

wow..nice to see mlb here ..good luccck

mrtsummit · 05-06-11, 02:58 PM

Thank KG Man, always love your plays.

aussieH · 05-06-11, 04:45 PM

Just so I am clear as do not follow baseball. you are suggesting 0 runs in the 1st innings

mrtsummit · 05-06-11, 04:47 PM

Yes the play is no runs in first inning.

aussieH · 05-06-11, 04:52 PM

Thanks mr summit. Are you not allowed to receive points

70kgman · 05-06-11, 05:03 PM

5Dimes seems to have the best prices I could find for that type of prop bet. That is the book I will be using for those wagers. I will include my projected probability of a run being scored in the 1st inning along with all the plays, so you can convert that into odds and decide how much value is left in the play if you cant get the same number I got.

mrtsummit · 05-06-11, 05:34 PM

Do you know a trusted site that shows what the public is playing? Meaning where there money is.

70kgman · 05-06-11, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by mrtsummit

Do you know a trusted site that shows what the public is playing? Meaning where there money is.

For those prop wagers? Or in general?

mrtsummit · 05-06-11, 05:55 PM

In general

70kgman · 05-06-11, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by mrtsummit

In general

sportsbook spy.

mrtsummit · 05-06-11, 06:03 PM

thanks

dume walker · 05-06-11, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by mrtsummit

Do you know a trusted site that shows what the public is playing? Meaning where there money is.

Where the public is playing and where the money is can often be two different things. This is what's behind RLM.

dume walker · 05-06-11, 09:59 PM

Scary first inning, but an auspicious debut for the May model. Thanks for the winner, K-Man.

70kgman · 05-06-11, 10:05 PM

The 1st inning plays should turn around, they won 5 of the last 6 before that play when I was only tracking and not playing them. I will have two 1st inning plays tomorrow.

70kgman · 05-06-11, 10:06 PM

May MLB system play: New York / Texas Under 10 (Saturday)

---
ytd: 1-0

dume walker · 05-06-11, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

The 1st inning plays should turn around, they won 5 of the last 6 before that play when I was only tracking and not playing them. I will have two 1st inning plays tomorrow.

I didn't mean the first inning play Mets/Dodgers game was scary. Per your suggestion, I went lighter on that. What I meant was the first inning of the May Model play was scary when Yanks went up a fast 3-0 just a half inning into the game.