70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[nmodi]

i thought u r gud at 2H

[70kgman]

i thought u r gud at 2H

totals

[nmodi]

how bt total?

[apalm8]

Don't use twitter.

I think using Twitter would be great for all of us who tail you...and it could even be easier for you to keep track of things...just a thought. Keep up the good work! BOL with your plays tomorrow.

[marzenabudzinska]

painful loss,, we will get orlando over,,, and buffalo under today!!.. your thoughts on nh???

[cint2cint]

Good luck to everyone tonight on their plays.

[70kgman]

I think using Twitter would be great for all of us who tail you...and it could even be easier for you to keep track of things...just a thought. Keep up the good work! BOL with your plays tomorrow.

Had a lot of people ask for a twitter. Something I would consider doing next season.

[70kgman]

painful loss,, we will get orlando over,,, and buffalo under today!!.. your thoughts on nh???

nh?

[dume walker]

Is there a Buffalo under pick that I missed?

[70kgman]

Is there a Buffalo under pick that I missed?

Not from me. Not sure why they said that.

[dude_bg]

hmm, would you recommend betting on the under to middle? i mean losing the juice only

[70kgman]

hmm, would you recommend betting on the under to middle? i mean losing the juice only

I am kind of on the fence with that one. Like I mentioned yesterday, I have never bet playoffs before, and I made the bad assumption season shooting averages both for and against would stay relatively the same in the playoffs, but they have been drastically lower. It is no coincidence I am 3-0 on unders (all easy wins), and 1-4 on overs (a lucky win, and a few bad losses). I have been plugging in corrupted numbers into my projected pace total (which are only a detriment to over wagers).

I think I personally am going to keep my wager on the Orlando over. Even after I make my adjustments in the math, the total still seems on the low side to me if a similar pace from game 2 carries over into game 3. The line movement disagrees though. I will just leave it up to you whether you want to hedge out or not. Another option of hedging out if you decide to do that is taking the chance that the game starts out high scoring to get a higher number with live betting, you would at least have the small opportunity of middling it and winning both the original wager and the hedge that way.

[nmodi]

what is ur pick for today?

[rafa martin]

i stick with yr bet,,,over,,at least one game over please, high percentage of games under,,law should changed tonight.

[eazymoney]

what is ur pick for today?

It's Orlando/Atlanta (O181)

I think the total drop to 180

[dume walker]

You'd think just one time this season we could get an OT to work for us. Oh, well, onto the next...

[70kgman]

Cant catch a break with the shooting percentages. They are currently shooting over 50% in the 3Q of the Lakers game, they shot over 47% and over 50% from 3 pt range in the celtics game, and I choose the one game where they shoot 42%, and are below average in their 3pt and FT percentages as well. And tonight is the best shooting I have got on any of my over wagers so far.

The Orlando game and the Boston game had a very similar pace, yet the Boston game ended 37 points higher than the Orlando game. lol

I think I have all the unexpected playoff kinks worked out in my math now though. Should go back to winning around 2 of every 3 from this point forward.

[eazymoney]

just take your time, i have confidence in your next picks

[dume walker]

Impressive win by the Lightning today. You still think there's a chance they could pull off the series?

[phillybadboy]

just heard about you

[70kgman]

Impressive win by the Lightning today. You still think there's a chance they could pull off the series?

Hopefully. Pittsburgh don't have much depth and there top players have been logging huge minutes every game in the series, so I can definitely see Pitt getting tired the further along into the series it gets. Tampa's two wins were 5-1 and 8-2, and two of their 3 losses were tough 1 goal losses. So you could probably argue TB have been the better team despite still being down 3 games to 2.

[truanswer]

chicago under 2h?

[70kgman]

chicago under 2h?

Not much of an opinion on that one. Nothing unusual about the pace. If Indiana blow them out, it will likely go under. If Chicago come back and make a game of it, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go over.

[marzenabudzinska]

oops, you will hit the next over, i know you wil be picking yr spot corrrectly and the laws of averages should also be on our side, so i am confident in you,,keep up your nice job and do not worry, we, at least, AND MANY OTHERS trust you very highly,,tks bro!!!!

[70kgman]

Portland / Dallas Under 91.5 2H

[Soon2BRich]

i know its very early 70kgman but what do you think of the celtics/knicks game tommorow?

[ManBearPig]

Thanks to POR for not playing defense in the 3rd and DAL in the 4th..that was nice of you.

[marzenabudzinska]

Portland / Dallas Under 91.5 2H

what`s wrong kgman,,,, i hate nba for betting,,next day we will cash an easy one<'' luck to you we needed we are getting kill in these playoffs

[70kgman]

Didn't watch the 2nd half of that game after I made my wager, but just checked the box score/play by play. Portland shot 75% in the 4th quarter (78.9% if you don't count the crazy shot with 3 seconds left)? And they combined to go 18 for 19 from the free throw line in the 2nd half? Unreal. Variance is killing me so far in the playoffs.

[70kgman]

i know its very early 70kgman but what do you think of the celtics/knicks game tommorow?

I am going to abandon betting on full game totals in the playoffs. I am not using my model (not applicable for playoffs) as a springboard to bet full game totals like I was during the regular season, and I don't feel like I have much of a good read projecting full game totals without it.

[aussieH]

Will you still be playing 2nd half plays

[70kgman]

Will you still be playing 2nd half plays

Yes. My 2H playoff picks are still 4-2, so they are still right on par. 2H plays were all I originally were planning on playing in the playoffs. Capping full game playoff totals without a model was just a failed experiment (0-4) that I regret, and will pull the plug on.

[70kgman]

Miami / Philadelphia Under 94 2H

[aussieH]

easy winner well done

[70kgman]

If the pace of this Celtics game doesn't slow down in the 2nd quarter, grabbing the over on the live line looks good if you can get it within a few points of the closing line.