70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[nickos86]

Nice. I had some already and topped up 0.25 units at the break. Surprisingly Portland is playing much slower than I thought.

[70kgman]

I think the Dal/Por under 91 2H is a pretty good play.

I am not playing it because I already indirectly have under 102.5 2nd half with the live bet I put in earlier. But I would normally play that 2H under.

[dume walker]

I think the Dal/Por under 91 2H is a pretty good play. I am not playing it because I already indirectly have under 102.5 2nd half with the live bet I put in earlier. But I would normally play that 2H under.

How were you able to get 102.5 when the game total is 186?

[70kgman]

How were you able to get 102.5 when the game total is 186?

I put in a live bet (post #1120) late 1st quarter on under 186.5 for the game. There were 84 1st half points, so in a roundabout way, I technically have under 102.5 for the 2nd half from my earlier live bet.

[nickos86]

We both got live bet @ 186.5. (Well I had pregame and topped it up).

For some reason offering 180.5 - 182.5 with 3mins left, with heavy beatting on the over, then 90.5 at the half lol.

Check again in play maybe get a better deal.

[dume walker]

I put in a live bet (post #1120) late 1st quarter on under 186.5 for the game. There were 84 1st half points, so in a roundabout way, I technically have under 102.5 for the 2nd half from my earlier live bet.

Gotcha. I had already had a bet on the under at 186 based on BL's recommendation this morning. When you did that earlier 1Q post the best I could find was 183 so I laid off adding more. However, I did take the 2H at under 91 on your recommendation. Since I also have 102 in the same way you have 102.5, was taking the 2H at 91 a not so bright thing to do?

[70kgman]

Gotcha. I had already had a bet on the under at 186 based on BL's recommendation this morning. When you did that earlier 1Q post the best I could find was 183 so I laid off adding more. However, I did take the 2H at under 91 on your recommendation. Since I also have 102 in the same way you have 102.5, was taking the 2H at 91 a not so bright thing to do?

I wouldn't call it "not so bright". The live betting for me is basically just the replacement for what would of been my usual 2H wager. I already knew I would most likely have a 2H under play on that game late 1st quarter, so if I think I can use live betting early to get a better number than I would at halftime, I will.

[70kgman]

Going forward I will just start posting the good 2H plays the same way I was before for the people following, even if I am not personally playing it because I got a better number on an earlier live bet. Some people who are following the thread may not have played the two 2H plays today because the way I worded them.

[Sunde91]

Liked U 91 +105 before, played with confidence after your post. Great finish to reg season as well. 311 plays 62% just unheard of

[70kgman]

Liked U 91 +105 before, played with confidence after your post. Great finish to reg season as well. 311 plays 62% just unheard of

Funnily enough, both building a 1H version of my full game totals model and getting into 2H capping were both spontaneous things I decided to try out a few weeks into the season for the first time, and those two things turned out to be by far my strongest plays combining to go over 65%. It was the full game totals that only hit around 56% and dragged the overall percentage down.

Thanks for the points.

[dume walker]

Thanks for the 2 winner tonight, K-Man.

[Dan Kelly]

Funnily enough, both building a 1H version of my full game totals model and getting into 2H capping were both spontaneous things I decided to try out a few weeks into the season for the first time, and those two things turned out to be by far my strongest plays combining to go over 65%. It was the full game totals that only hit around 56% and dragged the overall percentage down.

Thanks for the points.

Thanks for the work - I think the reason you can better beat the 1H and 2H lines is the books don't work as hard on those lines as they do on the game lines. But I did notice that as the season wore on it seemed that the books were putting more effort into Quarters and Halfs.

[70kgman]

The 203 total points in game 1 was a pretty accurate end result of the pace of that game. Ride the current until the pace slows down in the series, or until the linesmakers adjust the total to an unplayable number. Thought the 1H total had a little more value than the full game total with the spread being 12, a potential blowout could slow down the second half.

Game 2: 1st half: Indiana / Chicago Over 97

[70kgman]

I am playing Washington/New York Under 5 (-140) and Anaheim/Nashville under 5 (+100) tonight in NHL.

Even juiced to -140 the Washington under has good value. Very few shots, very few scoring chances, and great goaltending in the first two games of that series. If it keeps going like that, all the games in the series will be 2-0, 2-1 type games.

And the 8 goals in game two of the Nashville series was just a fluke. Lots of penalties/power plays in that game. There were four powerplay goals, a 5-on-3 goal, and an empty netter at the end. Even strength shots and scoring chances were pretty limited. Bobby Ryan is also suspended for tonight's game.

[Full-Grown]

u 98 second half spurs 70kg?

[70kgman]

u 98 second half spurs 70kg?

I would lean that way. Don't like it enough to play it though.

I was able to snag the Under 196 for the game with live-in-game-betting at the end of the 1st quarter which looks good right now. Sorry, was too busy to come post it here afterwards. I think it was 189.5 at the next commercial anyway.

[nickos86]

I have it calculated at under 98 2H (though my secondary model would say exactly 98).

I got U196 live bet instead (thanks to wiz for tipping me off - didn't even know game had started).

[nickos86]

HA looks like we are on the same page again seventy-kg. GL to us.

[Full-Grown]

Well I bet the under 2nd half before you said anything. Bet over for the game before game started. Hoping the defenses kick ass this half. Hope I get even.

[cint2cint]

best of luck today !!

[apalm8]

BOL on your 1st half over play

[70kgman]

New York / Boston Under 98 2H

[Full-Grown]

Let's get it baby!

[fbragasilva]

New York / Boston Under 98 2H

good call m8

[Kryptonite]

Nice call
Am I correct these 2H plays include OT? So if this game went to OT you could still lose it.

[70kgman]

Nice call
Am I correct these 2H plays include OT? So if this game went to OT you could still lose it.

Yes. Lost quite a few during the regular season like that.

[nmodi]

how bt okc/den game??? are we gonna look at another upset for today?

[70kgman]

Posted this yesterday morning. Just re-posting in case anyone missed it.

Game 2: 1st half: Indiana / Chicago Over 97

[cint2cint]

OK, Thank you, Reminder OK.

[70kgman]

Game 2: New Orleans / LA Lakers Over 187.5

[Full-Grown]

Who you got in hockey today 70kgman?

[70kgman]

Who you got in hockey today 70kgman?

Don't think I am going to bet the NHL playoffs anymore. Maybe just very sparingly. I did good in the regular season because I was very picky and more of a situational capper, isolating very specific situations where I could find under the radar value. None of those are really applicable in the playoffs.

[aussieH]

Thanks mate. The bulls over surprise a little. I will go with the expert though

[Noropin]

thx for your picks... with you on the 1st half over , got it at 98

[nmodi]

same here chi 1H over 98