70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

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  • 70kgman
    SBR MVP
    • 01-31-10
    • 4354

    #1261
    Would of liked the 2H over if this game didn't turn into a likely blowout. The score may alter the flow to a clock management pace in the 4th quarter.
    Comment
    • hoyas2007
      SBR High Roller
      • 03-24-10
      • 106

      #1262
      Game 3 was a blow out and there were 60 points in the fourth quarter. Maybe that means they will keep up the fast pace the whole way through. I agree with you that it is risky though - it's too bad because this would be a great play given the pace
      Comment
      • cint2cint
        SBR High Roller
        • 09-17-10
        • 190

        #1263
        Good luck with your picks.
        Comment
        • apalm8
          SBR High Roller
          • 10-12-09
          • 125

          #1264
          Any action tonight?
          Comment
          • 70kgman
            SBR MVP
            • 01-31-10
            • 4354

            #1265
            Portland / Dallas Under 91.5 2H
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #1266
              Good luck on your 2h under play in the Por/Dal game. I'm on the game under. BOL
              Comment
              • SlaytheBook
                SBR High Roller
                • 10-05-10
                • 128

                #1267
                i hope you hit this 70kgman...looking for a little recovery. thanks for the play either way.
                Comment
                • aussieH
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-04-11
                  • 1188

                  #1268
                  4q may save you on the portland game
                  Comment
                  • phongmaxim
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 03-13-11
                    • 137

                    #1269
                    Congrats n thanks for the trailblazers 2h pick
                    Comment
                    • 70kgman
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-31-10
                      • 4354

                      #1270
                      Thanks for the points.

                      Updated playoff record: 6-6. 6-2 on 2H plays, which is all I am playing going forward.
                      Comment
                      • Love The Action
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-08-10
                        • 10952

                        #1271
                        Nice call on the 2h under...
                        Comment
                        • apalm8
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-12-09
                          • 125

                          #1272
                          Damn I asked you if you had action then I missed your play...lol...thanks for the picks keep up the good work!
                          Comment
                          • aussieH
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-04-11
                            • 1188

                            #1273
                            Any thoughts on NHL the Tampa by series bet is down to game7
                            Comment
                            • 70kgman
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-31-10
                              • 4354

                              #1274
                              Originally posted by aussieH
                              Any thoughts on NHL the Tampa by series bet is down to game7
                              I think Tampa has a good chance to win game 7. One of the main reasons I liked Tampa in the series to begin with is Pitt's lack of depth. It is two forward lines and four defensmen getting the bulk of the ice time for Pitt out of necessity. Those top players should be pretty fatigued by game 7 logging that kind of ice time every game. Tampa has outscored Pitt 21-14 in the series, and 10-4 last 2 games...Clearly Tampa has had no problem scoring, and it looks like that series long fatigue has already set in for Pitt.

                              Have a chance to wrap up the series bet on Boston tonight in game 6 too. I took the updated series price after they lost game 1. Not sure if anyone followed on that one.
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #1275
                                What about the blackhawks...don't you feel they are in luongos head? I like getting + money on that play. Thoughts? Thanks...
                                Comment
                                • dume walker
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 04-08-10
                                  • 971

                                  #1276
                                  Per your recommendation, I got down on Boston for -130. Not sure if that was the updated price. I think not.
                                  Comment
                                  • 70kgman
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-31-10
                                    • 4354

                                    #1277
                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                    What about the blackhawks...don't you feel they are in luongos head? I like getting + money on that play. Thoughts? Thanks...
                                    Luongo has never really been a good playoff goalie, all the way back to his days in junior. Chicago has looked much faster the last few games, winning most of the 1 on 1 battles within the game. I don't think I personally am going to bet on the game, but I think the value is defintely on Chicago at +155. The pressure of home ice has seemed like more of a detriment than an advantage so far in the NHL playoffs in general. Vancouver's line of -170 is juiced a lot higher than it should be.
                                    Comment
                                    • 70kgman
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-31-10
                                      • 4354

                                      #1278
                                      Originally posted by dume walker
                                      Per your recommendation, I got down on Boston for -130. Not sure if that was the updated price. I think not.
                                      It was. I Should of waited one more game. Could of got them for the series at +230 after they lost game 2 as well.
                                      Comment
                                      • daneault23
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-08-09
                                        • 3873

                                        #1279
                                        Any thoughts for LAL/NO 2nd half? Thinking under with that great shooting 1st half.
                                        Comment
                                        • 70kgman
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-31-10
                                          • 4354

                                          #1280
                                          Originally posted by daneault23
                                          Any thoughts for LAL/NO 2nd half? Thinking under with that great shooting 1st half.
                                          I would lean under, but don't like it nearly enough to consider playing it. I tend to just avoid those games where the variance on the 1H shooting percentages are drastically off average.
                                          Comment
                                          • Kryptonite
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 09-25-10
                                            • 164

                                            #1281
                                            I don´t know about the the under, 1st H 105 points but shooting % should go down. 91 is still a pretty low number for an under, especially with the risk of a close game and fouling in the last 30 seconds...
                                            Comment
                                            • 70kgman
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-31-10
                                              • 4354

                                              #1282
                                              San Antonio / Memphis Under 95.5 2H
                                              Comment
                                              • nmodi
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 03-28-11
                                                • 278

                                                #1283
                                                with u as always locked 95 under
                                                Comment
                                                • 70kgman
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-31-10
                                                  • 4354

                                                  #1284
                                                  Denver / OKC Under 102.5 2H
                                                  Comment
                                                  • nmodi
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 03-28-11
                                                    • 278

                                                    #1285
                                                    locked same
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Full-Grown
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 12-15-10
                                                      • 243

                                                      #1286
                                                      Originally posted by 70kgman
                                                      Denver / OKC Under 102.5 2H
                                                      Let's get it!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • nmodi
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 03-28-11
                                                        • 278

                                                        #1287
                                                        mem one just missed it ....
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 70kgman
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-31-10
                                                          • 4354

                                                          #1288
                                                          Ouch. 13 points in final 13 seconds of the game. That is the life on an under bettor. lol.

                                                          If SA could of stopped Memphis on that possesion that ended with 13 seconds left, there never would of been any intentional free throws, and it would of covered easily.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • nickos86
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 03-08-11
                                                            • 400

                                                            #1289
                                                            My Bet was "cancelled" with no explanation yet..... That's just horsesh*t. (Have money back obviously but WTF). GL guys - no live totals been put back up since 1H over here.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • dume walker
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 04-08-10
                                                              • 971

                                                              #1290
                                                              Pissed that I missed your OKC/Den under while out to dinner. But we did cash on both hockey series, right? Thanks for that, K-Man.

                                                              And in that same vein, why are the Canadiens called the Habs? (Like I said before, I am not a hockey guy.)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • nmodi
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 03-28-11
                                                                • 278

                                                                #1291
                                                                i hope we r not seeing another OT here plz no
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 70kgman
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-31-10
                                                                  • 4354

                                                                  #1292
                                                                  Originally posted by dume walker
                                                                  Pissed that I missed your OKC/Den under while out to dinner. But we did cash on both hockey series, right? Thanks for that, K-Man.

                                                                  And in that same vein, why are the Canadiens called the Habs? (Like I said before, I am not a hockey guy.)
                                                                  Yes. Won both the Tampa Bay (+125) and Boston (-130) series bets tonight.

                                                                  Habs is an abbreviation of "les habitants", which is a term that has to do with the original settlers of that area of Canada.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ManBearPig
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-04-08
                                                                    • 2473

                                                                    #1293
                                                                    Man my A system plays are killing it in the playoffs...not a lot of plays but it's 9-3-1 including the Miami over which I never thought would hit. Wasn't really expecting this for the playoffs and not even sure how to view it but I may be on to something though because it did fairly well in the reg season too. Backtesting is a bitch though so I'll have to figure something out.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • 70kgman
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-31-10
                                                                      • 4354

                                                                      #1294
                                                                      Originally posted by ManBearPig
                                                                      Man my A system plays are killing it in the playoffs...not a lot of plays but it's 9-3-1 including the Miami over which I never thought would hit. Wasn't really expecting this for the playoffs and not even sure how to view it but I may be on to something though because it did fairly well in the reg season too. Backtesting is a bitch though so I'll have to figure something out.
                                                                      Sounds good. Did you make any playoff adjustments to your model? I got off to a rough start in the playoffs, mostly because I was still using regular season averages in my capping as a general baseline for a couple different areas. Took me a little while to notice the flaw and make adjustments. If you look at at the shooting in the playoffs, the FG percentage averages are down 2%-4% in just about every series to where they would of projected to be for those two teams in the regular season. That is very drastic.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • cc440unn
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 03-18-11
                                                                        • 737

                                                                        #1295
                                                                        Youre not playing that much play everyday. So not alot of profit for poeple who are playing little $$$ on each unit. But still a good way to make good money.

                                                                        thks alot
                                                                        P.S. Im not good in english. I apologize for any error in my post.
                                                                        Comment
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