Chicago / Indiana Over 94.5 2H
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Over was the right play on that 1H play. I had the pace right. Just pathetic shooting in that 1st half. 38% FG, 25% 3pt, ect... Should of finished 15+ points higher than it did.Comment -
was thinking the same thing. i just dont trust indiana to put up 40 points though .Comment -
I agree with the over, looks like the obvious play. If they shoot a normal % this should easily hit.
Already up to 95,5 at most places.Comment -
Wooohooo!!! Wowsers... lmaoComment -
Lucky win, but I will take it. It should of went over a lot easier. Shooting in that 2nd half was almost as bad as the 1st half. Combined FG% for the game was 40%.Comment -
Another easy one.
It's funny that those that work harder seem to be luckier!Comment -
Some of the luck have been evening out a bit lately. Earlier in the season, it seemed like I was losing unders because of OT, a shot at the buzzer, or unnecessary intentional last second FT's at a phenomenal rate.Comment -
Very similar pace in that game as game 1, which is way off line with even the adjusted game 2 total. Hopefully the fact that game 2 went under drags the opening number on the total of game 3 down to 190 or so. Will present a good opportunity for a 1H and/or game over wager on game 3.Comment -
Nice work once againComment -
Game 3: Chicago / Indiana Over 189Comment -
any thing for today?Comment -
Most plays I make in the playoffs will be 2nd half plays.Originally posted by nmodiComment -
Love this play a lot, we went under last game due to turnovers. 38 in the last game!!! Also a lot of missed tips in and layups. Waiting for my book to have a line up. Thanks 70kgman!Originally posted by 70kgmanComment -
Atlanta / Orlando Over 91 2HComment -
Ouch, they just shot a combined 26% in that 3rd quarter. Will need OT for it to hit.Comment -
If you can get under 184 or better live betting at any of the 2Q commercials for POR/DAL, I think it is a good play. I got 184 at the end of the 1Q.Comment -
70kgman - isn't the pace of this portland-dallas game pretty fast? it seems like it is up and down, at least these last few minutes (i just started watching). what draws you to the under based on what you've seen so far? thanks a lot for your postsComment -
plz share 2h for portland if u u gonna playComment -
The pace has picked up a bit in the 2nd, but it was pretty slow in the 1st quarter. Refs weren't calling many fouls, It was mostly some great 3 point shooting that pushed it up to a 46 point quarter. That was only based on a 1Q sample size, my opinion may be different at halftime.Originally posted by hoyas2007
edit: Didn't get a good number at all. Lots of scoring the last few minutes (8 of last 10 shots went in) which bumped the live line to 189.Comment -
No longer recommend playing the under on the live bet. Pace has changed a lot. Running into some extreme variance in the wrong direction on the shooting percentages today too. They must of shot about 66% in the final 9 minutes of that 2nd quarter.Comment -
any?Comment -
Nope. Don't see any value there.Comment -
They had about 89 possessions and are scored 1.14ppp between them in the 1H, you have to think they'll normalize a bit in the 2H and come back down to earth a little...especially if the game is close coming down the stretch. I'm not going to touch this one but you can see how efficient they were in the 1H.Comment -
That one seemed like a crapshoot at halftime to me. The 1Q was slow as molasses. The 2Q quarter was significantly faster. No continuous flow. Could only make a guess at the 2H pace.Originally posted by ManBearPigComment -
ya the flow in this game was very hard to peg. It was a lot higher as both teams shot better...especially Dallas. I'm curious what the numbers looked like.Comment -
BOL with your plays todayComment -
Going 3 ways on the Chicago over 70 kg manComment -
What do you think of this post? I thought this was some solid analysis, but I noticed that your model puts you on the other side of the NO-LA game tonight... http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-no-under.htmlComment -
I respect their opinion. We just clearly have different styles of capping. Most of his reasoning seems to be based on hypotheticals. I don't bet on the defenses hypothetically tightening up because it happened in game 2 of a few other games, or bet on the pace hypothetically slowing down because those two teams had lots of unders in the regular season. His math might be off too, NO shot 51.9% in game 1, not 60%. He very well may be right, but I just bet on facts, not hypotheticals. And in game 1 I saw a pace that was significantly off line with the total, and still pretty well off from the game 2 total which has been adjusted 5 points upwards from game 1's closing line. I am going to play that pace to continue until I see otherwise, which I like to set up a game in the upper 190's if it stays relatively close and the shooting percentages are at least averagish.Originally posted by hoyas2007Comment -
I guess the big question is will the pace stay where it was in game 1 or will it slow down? I looked at the 4 regular season matchups, and I calculated total possessions of 184, 172, 166, and 175. Game 1 had 182 possessions, so it certainly seems possible that it will drop down to what we've seen this season between these two teams, particularly since one would think that defense will be a priority tonight given the high total last game. If the pace slows down, then the PPP for both teams will need to be quite high to push the total over. It's a lot of if's though. Have you found that you have a better advantage making plays before the games start or using live betting during the game once you have a sense of the pace that the teams are playing at?Comment -
I guess they both have their pros and cons. I haven't done much live in game betting before this playoffs. My live in game wager recommendations or more just early leans that I am playing, trying to get an early jump on a potential 2H play, sometimes I post them in here in case anyone is interested, sometimes I don't. My plays in red are the plays I guess you can call my "official" playoff wagers. Probably will lay off posting any of the live in game stuff anymore, kind of pointless since the number I got will pretty much never align with the number it will be at during any of the following commercial breaks.Originally posted by hoyas2007Comment -
Do you know that there are books that allow to live bet anytime during game, not only during commercials. I believe you would likely own themComment -
70kg...you were right about the shooting %. That was a typo. The hornets shot 60% for the first half and 52% fir the game. I think they return to earth and shoot in the low 40s tonight. Good luck...but not too much lol!Comment -
Which ones? Some of the books I use have the spread wager listed the entire time on the live betting page, but the totals usually only come out during the commercial breaks.Originally posted by sharlataansComment
