70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[mrtsummit]

Im with you . Portland dominates LA at home like my chances with 3.

[phongmaxim]

Dallas dominated that 1st period. Colorado only had 2 shots on goal. I don't think I have ever seen a shot total for a period that low before. Lets hope they keep playing the rest of the game like they did that 1st period.




Nope. Lines on the totals looks really sharp to me.

BOL!

[phongmaxim]

you did it again! I wish u can cheer a real beer with u

[dume walker]

Another 2 great calls. Thanks for the winners, K.

BTW, do you expect your 2H calls during the playoffs will be as strong as they were during the regular season, or is there something in the nature of the playoffs that can throw that assessment off just as playoff formats don't quite fit your math model?

[ManBearPig]

Ya..that Denver game...total 193...10 pts on the dot which happens to be Denver's 5 gm avg. I think if I could generate pace for recent games I would get a solid line. I think there's a filter in there somewhere though so good to know these things. The things with Denver is the change of guard and they are a completely different team right now with Carmelo gone. I suppose if you paid attention to certain teams that were active at the trade deadline you would see some different tendencies emerge. I ended up laying off that game so I didn't blow my load...thanks

[NYSportsGuy210]

Anyone thinks this Lakers-Blazers game actually stays UNDER 185?

[ManBearPig]

Anyone thinks this Lakers-Blazers game actually stays UNDER 185?

I do cuz that's what my money is on

[NYSportsGuy210]

Lakers on a 12-0 run the last 2:00....not good.

Yea me too....I took the UNDER for $115.

So far they have 136 combined after three quarters.

[Love The Action]

I pray it stays under and Portland covers.

[70kgman]

Another 2 great calls. Thanks for the winners, K.

BTW, do you expect your 2H calls during the playoffs will be as strong as they were during the regular season, or is there something in the nature of the playoffs that can throw that assessment off just as playoff formats don't quite fit your math model?

I expect them to be just as strong, since the 2H wagers are based solely on the flow/shooting/score/projected win margin of that specific game. I do expect the game lines to be sharper in the playoffs though, especially the deeper into the series it gets, which will indirectly make the 2H lines sharper as well. So I doubt there will be too many plays I fancy. But who knows? We'll see.

[70kgman]

Ya..that Denver game...total 193...10 pts on the dot which happens to be Denver's 5 gm avg. I think if I could generate pace for recent games I would get a solid line. I think there's a filter in there somewhere though so good to know these things. The things with Denver is the change of guard and they are a completely different team right now with Carmelo gone. I suppose if you paid attention to certain teams that were active at the trade deadline you would see some different tendencies emerge. I ended up laying off that game so I didn't blow my load...thanks

Taking pace numbers vs. the expected pace from each individual game to insert into a model, and finding short term peaks and valleys off average in those numbers would be wise.

[cc440unn]

any pick for 2d 70kg ??

[70kgman]

Going to pass on the model plays again. Lines have seemed razor sharp lately.

[Soon2BRich]

hey 70kgman, hows the trial baseball system coming along?

[70kgman]

hey 70kgman, hows the trial baseball system coming along?

Need some stats to accumulate and for the starting pitchers to get at least 5+ starts before I start testing it out. Even if it ends up panning out the way I hope, it probably wont be until June at the earliest that I would start playing them.

[skm39]

Now that's good discipline

[p00t13tan]

cant wait for your baseball picks

[mrtsummit]

Do you like any of the hockey games tonight?

[70kgman]

Do you like any of the hockey games tonight?

Leaning towards taking the TB +1.5 PL. Carolina are in a situation where if they win they make the playoffs, if they lose they are out. And this is basically a meaningless last game for TB, they have the #5 seed locked up no matter what happens. So the public is pounding Carolina as expected, and juicing the line a lot higher than it should be. This should give some good value to the TB PL in particular. Motivation can only get you so far. Getting good value for Tampa to keep it a 1 goal game at worst. The line should only get better closer to game time.

[apalm8]

Good luck with your baseball model.

[70kgman]

Utah / San Antonio Under 101.5 2H

[Pete0]

Awesome job man

[70kgman]

Guess I should of stuck to my no more unders policy on these last couple week games. SA shot 80% in the 3Q, and UTA 62%. That is ridiculous. How is that even possible?

[Dan Kelly]

I disagree - It wasn't that bad of a bet. Sometimes you get beat, that's all. You have to keep fighting the good fight. Thanks for putting your work out there.

[70kgman]

It was a good bet mathematically under normal NBA game circumstances, but I feel like I am playing Russian roulette every time I take an under during these last few weeks of mostly meaningless games. So many games with no defense, which basically throws the variance and law of average angles out the window.

[Crazygamble]

good luck my friend

[dume walker]

Well, at least you got your TB bet which came through in big fashion. I didn't get down on it. -175 juice scared me away. Playing them straight up to win would have got you +175. And you're right. Motivation only takes you so far. When a team "has to" win it's because they werent' able to for a good part of the season.

[Nookx]

Your gonna just have to back test to see how your system does in these so called "meaningless situations" at the end of the season. It will affect Overs as well as Unders in the long run but you may be getting hit a little bit by the variance bat as well.

[70kgman]

Well, at least you got your TB bet which came through in big fashion. I didn't get down on it. -175 juice scared me away. Playing them straight up to win would have got you +175. And you're right. Motivation only takes you so far. When a team "has to" win it's because they werent' able to for a good part of the season.

It dropped to -155 at a lot of places right before start time like I expected. Ended up getting it at -155 at one book, and -160 at another. I don't mind laying the juice on occasion, value is value...that line should of been closer to -250 or higher.

1st period Over 1.5 in the Boston/NJ game should be pretty good value tomorrow afternoon. I expect the price to open in the +100 to +110 range.

[aussieH]

Thanks mate.

What is your favorite sport to bet on by the way. Your hockey bets seem to be pretty good

[70kgman]

Thanks mate.

What is your favorite sport to bet on by the way. Your hockey bets seem to be pretty good

I find basketball totals to be the easiest type of wagers to beat and make money off of, so I guess that would make it my "favorite sport to bet on". Hockey is the only sport I really follow, bet it sparingly nowadays, but usually win when I do.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Sunday Play: Sacramento vs. Golden State - OVER 217

[aussieH]

Really enjoy this thread. Keep up the good work.

[cint2cint]

Best of luck with your picks

[70kgman]

Not going to play any model plays once again today. Linesmakers have seemed extra sharp/quick at adjusting lines all of a sudden these past few weeks. I cant "catch the wave before it breaks" anymore.

And that Boston/NJ 1st period over 1.5 opened at +135. A lot better than I thought. That is really good value. Big Z will most likely get the day off to rest for the playoffs. Once that becomes confirmed, that +135 line should worsen.