Once the playoffs start and teams get back to playing defense, do you think your 2H plays will be as strong as before, or will there be some other playoff-particular element that might throw things off and would be a cause for proceedingly cautiously? I'm asking so I'll know how to adjust unit size.
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keep up the good work 70 we appreciate it!Comment -
I don't really see any reason why I would feel any less confident in the 2H plays during the playoffs and still expect them to be strong plays. Although, my 2H record (since I decided to start posting them all and keeping a record of them) is 65.7% over a 105 game sample size. It certainly would be nice to continue to win 2 of every 3 going forward, but I don't know how realistic that would be. I would expect the lines to be a bit sharper, especially the deeper into the series it gets, so the volume of plays I like might be limited.Originally posted by dume walkerComment -
Great call on the Vancouver under kg.Comment -
Great call, K-Man. Thanks for the spot winner.Originally posted by 70kgman
Bos/SA blew past the under tonight and LA/Dallas is in the process of doing the same. For reasons you said earlier, you think it's a good idea to lay off all unders till we get into the playoffs?Comment -
Yeah. Yesterday I mentioned "cautiously continuing through the weekend, and then sitting out the last 8 days of the regular season". That pretty much can be translated into "still looking for model/2H plays through the weekend, but definitely avoiding any under wagers except for maybe rare exceptions".Originally posted by dume walker
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Man, I was beginning to think the Over in this Lakers game was never going to hit. Dallas has a HS team out there...zero ability to hit a shot...now an airball make that a JV HS squad...geez.
I just looked and Dallas called a TO at 4:54 with a 105-82 score...5 more points were scored the rest of the game and the over hits by 1...wowComment -
it seemed like no one could hit a shot good thing pau could hit ft's lolComment -
4/1
1st Half: San Antonio / Houston Over 107.5
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NBA Model: 118-78-3
2H wagers: 69-36Comment -
BOL on your plays todayComment -
thx for the pick dudeP.S. Im not good in english. I apologize for any error in my post.Comment -
I wish I found your thread earlier in the season! Thx for your plays.Comment -
Thanks for everything you do 70kgman!Comment -
how you feel bout lakers 2nd half??? got the over 94.5Comment -
thanks for the spurs/houston pick won me pretty big tonight.Comment -
I don't think you need to be weary of all unders, just the matchups where the teams involved are out of the playoffs and have nothing more to play for.Originally posted by 70kgmanYeah. Yesterday I mentioned "cautiously continuing through the weekend, and then sitting out the last 8 days of the regular season". That pretty much can be translated into "still looking for model/2H plays through the weekend, but definitely avoiding any under wagers except for maybe rare exceptions".
For example, I cashed on the Pacers/Bucks under, Magic/Bobcats under and Celts/Hawks under yesterday. The common thread between all of those plays is that each team still has motivation to play defense in order to reach the playoffs or get a better seed. On the other hand, I did not play the Wizards/Cavs under, even though both teams' trends and my projected line pointed under, because I knew neither team had any reason to play defense and the game would be nothing more than streetball.
Therefore, I would recommend that if your model has a play on a game where the teams are still playoff-motivated, I think you should play that game or risk losing out on a great investment opportunity. Let's just hope we don't have anymore unders lost to overtime (I think the only person in the world that lost more of those than you, was me
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Good luck and congrats on the great season!
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nice pick yeesterday dudeP.S. Im not good in english. I apologize for any error in my post.Comment -
any picks today ?Comment -
Yeah, that might be a better way of looking at it. Although, since my model heavily relies on recent play, I am still kind of Leary that my numbers could end up skewed over these last couple weeks of the season because of all the "street ball" games in general lately. So still leaning towards stopping after tomorrow, and sitting out until the playoffs.Originally posted by Love The ActionI don't think you need to be weary of all unders, just the matchups where the teams involved are out of the playoffs and have nothing more to play for.
For example, I cashed on the Pacers/Bucks under, Magic/Bobcats under and Celts/Hawks under yesterday. The common thread between all of those plays is that each team still has motivation to play defense in order to reach the playoffs or get a better seed. On the other hand, I did not play the Wizards/Cavs under, even though both teams' trends and my projected line pointed under, because I knew neither team had any reason to play defense and the game would be nothing more than streetball.
Therefore, I would recommend that if your model has a play on a game where the teams are still playoff-motivated, I think you should play that game or risk losing out on a great investment opportunity. Let's just hope we don't have anymore unders lost to overtime (I think the only person in the world that lost more of those than you, was me ).
Good luck and congrats on the great season!Comment -
Not going to have any model plays tonight. Nothing on the card looks good to me.Comment -
So no picks for me too. Thank youComment -
Wise words 70kg, play offs not too far off, so may as well wait for games that both teams will give 100% in.Comment -
VCU / Butler Over 69.5 2HComment -
Ha have to be quick to catch you
I remember to check now. GL
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no man.. sorry.. i fell under. BOL anyway...Comment -
Poor shooting 1H, esp 3 attempts will correct. VCU keeping it close - they can only do that with fast tempo b-ball and threes. If still there at the end = fouls.
Good play.Comment -
PS then who the hell knows in CBB anyway! Not me so don't listen hehe.Comment -
i dont know why still offer 132 in live bets.. maybe cause of fouls at thee end maybe ??Comment -
Excellent both teams in the penalty with ~5:00 left. C'mon free throws.Comment -
Thanks for that Butler/VCU 2nd Half OVER - that was an easy WComment -
God I love VCU's coach. Like the Mighty Ducks over there. His stupid never say die, lets hold hands and gets some positive energy attitude pushed them to cover 13 points in the last 57secs + a frustration 3pt made with 12 secs left. Bad luck herbi - looked like you were on the right side of this one. Hope I haven't used all my good karma my big plays are yet to come!Comment -
Eazy over???. It took a 3 in the final 15 sec to cover. I had it at 70 though so i was lucky.Comment -
i still cant bellive that.. But still thank you guys that i did not go BIG for this one..Comment -
More like a bad pick by herbi that he got lucky he only lost by 0.5 point on. lol. Over was the good play regardless of the lucky way it ended up going over in the end. Both teams shot a combined 37% in that 2nd half and it still went over the total.Originally posted by nickos86Comment -
Cover by a 1/2 point. Great freakin' call, K-Man!Originally posted by 70kgmanComment
