70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[Soon2BRich]

bet365 is great when it comes to live betting

[sharlataans]

bet365 is great when it comes to live betting

Yes, you can bet totals anytime in bet365. Also totals/team totals of each quarter, spreads also up to each quarter..

[marzenabudzinska]

notbody wins at bet 365,,better not touch that book.

[dude_bg]

notbody wins at bet 365,,better not touch that book.

lol, how come? the lines are the same, so what exactly are you saying? that it is a bad carma?

[sharlataans]

lol, how come? the lines are the same, so what exactly are you saying? that it is a bad carma?

Guy is a loser. In my opinion if you are someone like 70kgman, it is quite easy to exploit their full live betting. It is not nearly perfect.

[dude_bg]

Guy is a loser. In my opinion if you are someone like 70kgman, it is quite easy to exploit their full live betting. It is not nearly perfect.

it's not a guy, it is a girl, marzena is polish name, anyway i have troubles picking the right moment for live bet there, as it always changes. i often miss it even

[70kgman]

I have heard good things about Bet365, especially their live betting options. But it is a Euro book, so not an option for me. I am actually pretty surprised at the large amount of European NBA cappers there seem to be in the forum.

[marzenabudzinska]

it's not a guy, it is a girl, marzena is polish name, anyway i have troubles picking the right moment for live bet there, as it always changes. i often miss it even

of course i am a girl and you are right,, from polska....i do win and lose just like all of you do,, but if i say that is because i have this book for 4 years,,and all i do is lose all the time,,, they are against us the players, like no other book is,,, all my books settle my bet as a win,,, but ahh,,bet 365,,is a lost,,so call them,,their stupid music all over your ears for 20 minutes,,10 days later they solve the issue,, if you win 3-5 days in a row,, they cut down yr bets or do not take it at all,,you cannot bet when they know you caught them,,their live bet odds sucks, compare them to the ones you get at pinny during commercials..
all they do is to try to get that we bet with stress and emotions,,they ake us to be worst player,,,i do win at the other books

by the way,,i will like to know if anyone here in this forum,, makes regular money live betting at bet 365?,, OR ANY OTHER LIVE BETTING BOOK?... i am tired of my boring legendz account,,i will take a chance if there is anyone?,,,, very simple,, betting at legendz or usa books i win,,, but when betting live at 365 i lost,,,i try to help only that,, and i have been with them for 6 years,,,,
why do you think,,they have all those 100 games,, included small sports markests with wise guys ready to beat them?',, is because they know the more you bet with them the more you lose,, they are not afraid of anyone....... i hated this book!!!! but the thrill is the thrill.................

[sneakerhead]

of course i am a girl and you are right,, from polska....i do win and lose just like all of you do,, but if i say that is because i have this book for 4 years,,and all i do is lose all the time,,, they are against us the players, like no other book is,,, all my books settle my bet as a win,,, but ahh,,bet 365,,is a lost,,so call them,,their stupid music all over your ears for 20 minutes,,10 days later they solve the issue,, if you win 3-5 days in a row,, they cut down yr bets or do not take it at all,,you cannot bet when they know you caught them,,their live bet odds sucks, compare them to the ones you get at pinny during commercials.. all they do is to try to get that we bet with stress and emotions,,they ake us to be worst player,,,i do win at the other books by the way,,i will like to know if anyone here in this forum,, makes regular money live betting at bet 365?,, OR ANY OTHER LIVE BETTING BOOK?... i am tired of my boring legendz account,,i will take a chance if there is anyone?,,,, very simple,, betting at legendz or usa books i win,,, but when betting live at 365 i lost,,,i try to help only that,, and i have been with them for 6 years,,,, why do you think,,they have all those 100 games,, included small sports markests with wise guys ready to beat them?',, is because they know the more you bet with them the more you lose,, they are not afraid of anyone....... i hated this book!!!! but the thrill is the thrill.................

I do agree with you that their lines suck, they are heavily juiced, usually -120/-120 live lines or sometimes worse and you can grab better lines at other books.
It is just a good recreational book for action junkies IMO. Their diverse live market is nice for small league games though.
Sometimes their customer service is pretty rude as well, not really a big fan of the book. Never got limited there though, maybe cause I don't bet a lot there.

[fishtot]

what was whe 2h line in the okl/den game?

[70kgman]

Sorry. That was just a flat out bad pick on the over. The pace of this game is painful to watch. Both teams walking up the court and letting the shot clock get to single digits before they even start running any kind of play almost every possession, no fouls being called either. Like I mentioned, I went from the pace and gameplay of game 1, and this isn't even anything close to the pace of the first game. Night and day. The 2H under was something I would of played if I wasn't already committed to the game over.

[Love The Action]

Sorry. That was just a flat out bad pick on the over. The pace of this game is painful to watch. Both teams walking up the court and letting the shot clock get to single digits before they even start running any kind of play almost every possession, no fouls being called either. Like I mentioned, I went from the pace and gameplay of game 1, and this isn't even anything close to the pace of the first game. Night and day. The 2H under was something I would of played if I wasn't already committed to the game over.

Don't forget about the zig zag theory in the playoffs. This applies to totals as well. When teams play abnormally above their average range as to shooting percentage and pace -- such as the Lakers and Hornets last game -- the next game they play typical reverts to the mean. This concept can be used to make some big cash in the playoffs.

[sharlataans]

Don't forget about the zig zag theory in the playoffs. This applies to totals as well. When teams play abnormally above their average range as to shooting percentage and pace -- such as the Lakers and Hornets last game -- the next game they play typical reverts to the mean. This concept can be used to make some big cash in the playoffs.

well well, it is just a guess that may work or may not 50/50.

[Love The Action]

well well, it is just a guess that may work or may not 50/50.

Well, well, I believe all capping is a "guess" to some extent. No matter what data you have to back up your play, nothing is 100% so I'm not sure what you are getting at.

As a capper, you should try to take everything into account. That means to look at situational angles that have historically hit, as well as math-based plays. If you only use one or the other, you are not looking at a play as comprehensively as you could.

Go through the last twenty years of playoff games. What you will find is exactly what I said for a winning hit rate. Where two teams play above average as to shooting percentage, pace, etc., the next game typically reverts their mean averages.

I'm not saying always, however, it's a concept you might want to keep in mind when making your plays in the playoffs.

Good luck to all!

[70kgman]

I feel good about these overs hitting. Even though the total score drastically dropped from game 1 to game 2 in both, the pace stayed the same, which is significantly more up tempo than the line.

Thursday: Chicago / Indiana Over 189

Friday: Orlando / Atlanta Over 181

----------
Playoffs: 4-3

[70kgman]

As a capper, you should try to take everything into account. That means to look at situational angles that have historically hit, as well as math-based plays. If you only use one or the other, you are not looking at a play as comprehensively as you could.

This is good advice. My plays stem from math, but I certainly do plenty of post math/stats capping before I finalize any play.

My personal style of capping is finding spikes and valleys in teams pace and gameplay, and riding those trends until the numbers start to equalize, or until the linesmakers adjust the number out of the comfort zone. In the case of that Lakers series, it was a very short ride. It happens.

[Love The Action]

I feel good about these overs hitting. Even though the total score drastically dropped from game 1 to game 2 in both, the pace stayed the same, which is significantly more up tempo than the line.

Thursday: Chicago / Indiana Over 189

Friday: Orlando / Atlanta Over 181

----------
Playoffs: 4-3

I lean to both of these overs as well, but have not looked at them close enough to lock anything in yet. Good luck!

[sharlataans]

of course i am a girl and you are right,, from polska....i do win and lose just like all of you do,, but if i say that is because i have this book for 4 years,,and all i do is lose all the time,,, they are against us the players, like no other book is,,, all my books settle my bet as a win,,, but ahh,,bet 365,,is a lost,,so call them,,their stupid music all over your ears for 20 minutes,,10 days later they solve the issue,, if you win 3-5 days in a row,, they cut down yr bets or do not take it at all,,you cannot bet when they know you caught them,,their live bet odds sucks, compare them to the ones you get at pinny during commercials..
all they do is to try to get that we bet with stress and emotions,,they ake us to be worst player,,,i do win at the other books

by the way,,i will like to know if anyone here in this forum,, makes regular money live betting at bet 365?,, OR ANY OTHER LIVE BETTING BOOK?... i am tired of my boring legendz account,,i will take a chance if there is anyone?,,,, very simple,, betting at legendz or usa books i win,,, but when betting live at 365 i lost,,,i try to help only that,, and i have been with them for 6 years,,,,
why do you think,,they have all those 100 games,, included small sports markests with wise guys ready to beat them?',, is because they know the more you bet with them the more you lose,, they are not afraid of anyone....... i hated this book!!!! but the thrill is the thrill.................

Man, 6 years there 4 years there. You are a vet

My take on this is that you don't have to bet on each and every live game there.
I use bet365 almost exclusively for live betting and sometimes for games that are not available to bet on in other places.

I just looked in my account and I have 20 wins and 10 losses in last period with odds at about 2.0 (some 1.83, but not lower). Was it luck? For me I would say mostly yes, but there is probably something more.

For live betting:
1. I bet on basketball, tennis, table tennis (they have it rarely) and sometimes hockey (KHL). These are the types of games where games may go in waves and you can find very good offers. In other types of games like soccer, leave live betting out. They are highly juiced and not worth it.
2. You have to know the sport well
3. Watch the game live
4. You have got to know the teams involved WELL. Don't go betting some Kuwait games just looking at scores and time remaining. You will lose. Knowing the teams, how they play is what you can exploit. Their live system has initial leans and then adjusts steadily. But they do not or can not know the psychology of the game. Is this game important for the team? If one team is better, they might give up 10 points and not worry in the beginning, since they know they will get it back. This is were you get a good spread offer.
Or in tennis if you watch the game, you may tell when some player is getting tired, broken or down mentally. This is also where to bet on spread.

Their program is good, but not unbeatable. Learn the sport and be picky. You will not get rich, but you can win.

[cint2cint]

Best of luck today on your plays

[Bluehorseshoe]

Just a heads up and I believe someone brought this point up. Every time there's been a line move going "against" your pick, the line move was right. When I saw that total drop last night, I went and dumped my bet. gl

[hoyas2007]

Regarding the Bulls game, the first game in this series was slower paced but better offense, so the total went over. The second game in the series was faster paced but worse offense, so the total went under. If we believe in the zig zag theory, then the pace might slow back down, but I also expect a better offensive effort from both teams. They are both coming off very poor shooting nights, and the Bulls had a ton of turnovers (I think it was the most they've had all season), so I expect both teams to be more focused on offense. 189 is a pretty low total, particularly for Indiana. In their last 30 games, they have only faced 11 totals under 200, and 7 of those 11 went over, including all 3 that were below 190. This is a fast paced team that wants to pick up the pace, and I expect that they will shoot better after only shooting 41% last game. I am with you on the Bulls. We'll see where the line moves, but I think the over is the right play.

[hoyas2007]

kgman, what do you think about the philly total? Both of the games in that series have been very slow paced - do you think that pace continues? If so, then the under would seem like a decent play since I do not trust Philly's offense at all right now - they are having a lot of trouble scoring their last 10 games. Unless the pace really picks up and they start getting out more in transition, then I don't see that changing much tonight. In the last game, the Heat were totally content to run the shot clock down on every possession - if Philly has trouble scoring, then I expect Miami would maintain that same, slow pace. Thoughts?

[hoyas2007]

Wow, looks like people just jumped on the Miami-Philly under. Line just moved from 187 to 185.5. Hopefully it will go back up a bit.

Love the Action, when you were looking up how much of the public was betting on different sides, what site were you using for that? thespread.com doesn't show totals. Covers gives some sense of it - is that what you look at? Where is the public leaning on the totals plays tonight?

[eazymoney]

70kgman, do you post your picks on Twitter, if it's yes can you give your name

Thank you

[marzenabudzinska]

Man, 6 years there 4 years there. You are a vet

My take on this is that you don't have to bet on each and every live game there.
I use bet365 almost exclusively for live betting and sometimes for games that are not available to bet on in other places.

I just looked in my account and I have 20 wins and 10 losses in last period with odds at about 2.0 (some 1.83, but not lower). Was it luck? For me I would say mostly yes, but there is probably something more.

For live betting:
1. I bet on basketball, tennis, table tennis (they have it rarely) and sometimes hockey (KHL). These are the types of games where games may go in waves and you can find very good offers. In other types of games like soccer, leave live betting out. They are highly juiced and not worth it.
2. You have to know the sport well
3. Watch the game live
4. You have got to know the teams involved WELL. Don't go betting some Kuwait games just looking at scores and time remaining. You will lose. Knowing the teams, how they play is what you can exploit. Their live system has initial leans and then adjusts steadily. But they do not or can not know the psychology of the game. Is this game important for the team? If one team is better, they might give up 10 points and not worry in the beginning, since they know they will get it back. This is were you get a good spread offer.
Or in tennis if you watch the game, you may tell when some player is getting tired, broken or down mentally. This is also where to bet on spread.

Their program is good, but not unbeatable. Learn the sport and be picky. You will not get rich, but you can win.

this forum as far as i concerned is to help each other become better players and that is why i wrote this.....i do win when i bet in my normal aacounts,,pinnacle,,legendz,and some others books.... but i keep losing and losing in two books,,,mi apuesta.com,,which i already cancelled,,,, and bet 365 which i did not cancelled yet because i hate them so much,, i want to get some of my losses back,, but deep inside i know i cannot do it,,,they will do whatever it takes to get you out of yr plan, and eventually lose,, this is what i have asked,,,does anyone here makes money at live betting at bet 365?,,no 20 wins and 10 losses in a month,,,i also began winning with them but sooner than later they will caught you up,,,pinny lines are normally above 10% better than this crazy book with subliminal advertisetment in all european soccer games,,,, they are good at their business but against us the players,,,,, tell me in the future...
a decent english book is eurobet, and williams hill,,, any other suggestions?

[70kgman]

kgman, what do you think about the philly total? Both of the games in that series have been very slow paced - do you think that pace continues? If so, then the under would seem like a decent play since I do not trust Philly's offense at all right now - they are having a lot of trouble scoring their last 10 games. Unless the pace really picks up and they start getting out more in transition, then I don't see that changing much tonight. In the last game, the Heat were totally content to run the shot clock down on every possession - if Philly has trouble scoring, then I expect Miami would maintain that same, slow pace. Thoughts?

I thought the pace of the last game was pretty spot on, even though it went way under. So I don't have much of an opinion on that one.

Love the Action, when you were looking up how much of the public was betting on different sides, what site were you using for that? thespread.com doesn't show totals. Covers gives some sense of it - is that what you look at? Where is the public leaning on the totals plays tonight?

sportsbookspy is decent.

[70kgman]

70kgman, do you post your picks on Twitter, if it's yes can you give your name

Thank you

Don't use twitter.

[nickos86]

Just a heads up and I believe someone brought this point up. Every time there's been a line move going "against" your pick, the line move was right. When I saw that total drop last night, I went and dumped my bet. gl

I have noticed this also. And I have held off recently when late money is against me because it seems to be right more often than me these playoffs

[Full-Grown]

Wow, looks like people just jumped on the Miami-Philly under. Line just moved from 187 to 185.5. Hopefully it will go back up a bit. Love the Action, when you were looking up how much of the public was betting on different sides, what site were you using for that? thespread.com doesn't show totals. Covers gives some sense of it - is that what you look at? Where is the public leaning on the totals plays tonight?

Go to pregame.com, click on numbers on the left and then sportsbook spy. Pretty damn cool. GL.

[Not-A-Kid]

Bulls shooting 46% and only have 33 points halfway through the 2nd quarter. Hopefully the pace picks up. This is some frustrating shit.

[Full-Grown]

sportsbookspy is decent.[/quote]

Oops, didn't see that you already said that.

[70kgman]

Wasn't a bad pick pace wise. Those dopes just combined to shoot 38% for the game.

I have at least found the flaw in my capping. The defense is much much better than the regular season. I expected that to an extent, but not to this degree. Those 16 teams combined to shoot 46.51% during the regular season. In the playoffs the average shooting percentage is 43.6%, and that is not even including the horrible shooting in tonight's CHI/IND game, which will bring that down even more. 3% is the difference between like 10-15 points over a full game sample size. Pace is the main aspect of my capping, so I rely on something close to season average shooting percentages to make them good wagers, obviously I can not do that in the playoffs.

So, in short...no more (or a very select amount of) overs for me. All of my losses this playoffs have been on over wagers. Plays should get stronger going forward.

[70kgman]

I make a post about how the defense seems to be much tighter in the playoffs and the shooting percentages are going way down, and now Dallas and Portland make me look pretty stupid not 40 minutes later. Halfway through the 2Q and they have combined to shoot 65% so far. lol

[nmodi]

let me know what do u think abt dallas 2H?

[70kgman]

let me know what do u think abt dallas 2H?

I don't bet sides. Have no opinion.