I guess that all means no runs in the first innings
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Nice win
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Originally posted by 70kgman
Outstanding call, K-Man!
Thanks for the winner.
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Nice work once againComment -
CHW/OAK - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-130)
Projected probability: 27.75%
BAL/TB - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-120)
Projected probability: 44.94%
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1st inning model: 3-4 (-1.95 units)Comment -
With the projected probabiltydoes the higher the % mean you like it more.?Comment -
That is my projected probability of a run being scored in the 1st inning. So on NO wagers, lower the percent, the better the play. On YES wagers, the higher the percentage, the better.Originally posted by aussieH
27.75% on the CHW/OAK game converts to -260 odds for NO. I got it for -130, lots of value there.
44.94% on the TB/BAL game converts to -122 odds for NO. I got it for -120, so there is value there, but very little, and I probably would not of played it if the line was any higher than -120.
Currently working on strength of play filters to assign different plays different values (unit size). Just playing them all for the same amount to start.Comment -
Thanks for explaining. The first one hit and you like the second one more based on your probability. Good to see maths used for good lol.Comment -
two winners tonight!! system is positive and hopefully this winning continues, thanksComment -
Good stuu kgmanComment -
Runs in the 2nd innings but not in the first. Whew! Thanks, K-Man!
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Looks like it is back on track now. I was getting nervous when it lost the first four plays I posted to start. Five winners in a row since. Wasn't even a single base runner in either of tonight's games.
Nothing looks good tomorrow. Going to pass.
Thanks for the points Dume & not-a-kid.Comment -
BOL on your plays tomorrowComment -
how are ya 70k? got anything for the early mlb games?Comment -
Any plays tomorrow on the MLB.
Also be interested in your leans on the NBA & NHL finals.Comment -
Best of luck today on your playsComment -
STL/CIN - Run in 1st Inning? - YES (-105)
Projected probability: 58.26%
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1st inning model: 5-4 (+0.05 units)Comment -
any stats for NO scores?Comment -
Was leaning toward CLE/SEA NO score, but it is juiced way too high. Not taking it at -145 plus.Comment -
Carpenter - 1st inning - 7.88 ERA / 2.13 WHIP / Allowed 1st inning run in 3 straight and 4 of last 6
Wood - 1st inning - 11.25 ERA / 2.25 WHIP / Allowed 1st inning run in 3 of 8 starts
Cincinnati - .378 1st inning OBA (best in national league)
St. Louis - Scored 1st inning run 7 of last 13 gamesComment -
ouchComment -
If Bergeron is able to come back from his concussion in the next game or two for Boston, I think Boston come back in the series and beat TB, and their updated series price of +155 would be a good play. But like I said, only if Bergeron is back soon, I am still waiting for some kind of status update on him.Originally posted by aussieH
No strong opinion on the Western conference final. Seems like a toss up. Whichever team comes out of the west will likely win the cup in my opinion. Though being from the Boston area, I of course will be rooting for Boston to win it.
And I really don't know enough about the NBA to be giving any kind of opinion.Comment -
Runs ended being scored in 7 of the 9 innings in that game, just not the first.
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Good call. Bad outcome. On to the next. And thanks again for all your effort on these, K-Man.Originally posted by 70kgmanRuns ended being scored in 7 of the 9 innings in that game, just not the first.Comment -
Better today. But good work, tyComment -
CHW/TEX - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-115)
Projected probability: 39.9%
SD/ARI- Run in 1st Inning? - NO (+100)
Projected probability: 37.4%
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1st inning model: 5-5 (-1 units)Comment -
Think ATL -1.5 (+100) is a good play today also.Comment -
so r u locking ATL -1.5?Comment -
Yeah, I wouldn't post a play or recommendation or whatever in here if I wasn't playing it myself.Comment -
Like the Atlanta Braves TT Over 4 as well.Comment -
Bad beat with Atlanta only winning by one, 3-2. Atlanta should of had at least 10 runs in that game. Stranded bases loaded twice, had a guy at 3rd base with less than two outs and didn't score 3 times, had at least one base runner on with one out or less in every single inning except one, Prado hit into 3 double plays alone. So frustrating.Comment -
I lost Atl RL..also.Faking Prado was paid off..no other way to explain it...
I'm going through unbelievable loosing streak..I don't know what todoanymore..
It's mathematically impossible to be 1-13..
One win coming on a lucky walk off in the bottom the 9th...
Is it possible to loose that bad?? I mean I should have won a couple by now on luck, error..whatever...
It's some kind of a curse...I don't know how to get rid of this shit..
Anyone I follow looses those picks..as soon as i stop tailing they win 3, 4 in a row....
Any suggestions???What do I have to do?? How is this even faking possible????
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It will probably be hard because you want to get it all back at once but I would limit your plays to 3 a day. Play 3 and try to win 2 playing only 1 at a time. If you win 2 stop (don't be greedy) otherwise play the 3rd and if you lose then the worst you do is go 0-3.
What you are forcing yourself to do in this situation is play the best plays possible because you have only 3 plays so you will be more inclined to use them wisely. I would employ a betting unit strategy like 1-2-4. As you can see you can lose up to 7 units at most. This sounds like a lot but if you're losing 10 plays in a day how many unit losses is that. The nice thing about this is you get money back if you lose and can still come out ahead if you end up getting to the 3rd play. This is my personal preference in this and others may have their own ways..i.e flat betting, but I don't see how you can win much flat betting so little.
Everyone goes through bad streaks and you just have to be patient...don't force it and cut back as hard as it is, is your best bet. There is always tomorrow...of course unless the rapture comes next week then it won't matter much anyways.
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Thanks man....I appreciate your help..Originally posted by ManBearPigIt will probably be hard because you want to get it all back at once but I would limit your plays to 3 a day. Play 3 and try to win 2 playing only 1 at a time. If you win 2 stop (don't be greedy) otherwise play the 3rd and if you lose then the worst you do is go 0-3.
What you are forcing yourself to do in this situation is play the best plays possible because you have only 3 plays so you will be more inclined to use them wisely. I would employ a betting unit strategy like 1-2-4. As you can see you can lose up to 7 units at most. This sounds like a lot but if you're losing 10 plays in a day how many unit losses is that. The nice thing about this is you get money back if you lose and can still come out ahead if you end up getting to the 3rd play. This is my personal preference in this and others may have their own ways..i.e flat betting, but I don't see how you can win much flat betting so little.
Everyone goes through bad streaks and you just have to be patient...don't force it and cut back as hard as it is, is your best bet. There is always tomorrow...of course unless the rapture comes next week then it won't matter much anyways.
I don't play allot of games each day..1 to 3 games...Max 4....
What do you mean rapture???Comment -
Haha..it's been on the news...some people think that the world is coming to an end next week in what's known as the rapture or the end of times.Originally posted by Boxing Champ
If you already play a low amount of games then you should lower your betting amounts or take a couple days of to clear your mind and start fresh. If you really can't do that then you should tail Rogues soccer totals those things are money $$$.Comment
