70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[70kgman]

Like Boston Bruins (+117) tonight. The score of game 2 was a lot closer than the game really was. Boston controlled most of the game. Tampa got two lucky bounce goals, and Thomas had a bad game in net and let in a couple soft ones. Thomas should get back on track tonight, he has been (as well as the team in general) excellent on the road all year, and Bergeron returns for Boston tonight who was their best player in the playoffs before getting hurt.

If the score is tied at the end of the second period, taking Boston on the live-in-game line would also be a good play. Boston have been an excellent 3rd period team all season, Tampa have been one of the worst 3rd period teams.

[ManBearPig]

Why don't you look at 5-inning lines? Less juice and you only have to concentrate on starters more than the pen. I think there's some value in these and I hardly ever see anyone here talking about them which makes me like them even more. I haven't spent much time figuring out how to play them though so I don't have a lot of information.

[70kgman]

Why don't you look at 5-inning lines? Less juice and you only have to concentrate on starters more than the pen. I think there's some value in these and I hardly ever see anyone here talking about them which makes me like them even more. I haven't spent much time figuring out how to play them though so I don't have a lot of information.

To be honest, when I cap MLB, I actually start with bullpen stats. I think it goes under the radar a bit and the lines are based too much off of the starters alone. Isolating the worst of the worst bullpens and waiting for a starting pitcher for that team to come up that usually walks a lot of guys and gets into a high pitch counts early is a good way to find value in my opinion. You know most of the time that starter wont last more than 5-6 innings, and their horrible bullpen will have to survive 3-4 innings of relief.

[70kgman]

Cleveland Indians (+120)

[Dan Kelly]

minimal factors

I am kind of having second thoughts about these 1st inning plays. Seemed like a good prop to find soft lines on beforehand, but the more I play these, the more I think it is a waste of time. Juiced up lines that seem to be getting inflated more by the day, and dealing with one inning sample sizes means just the tiniest bit of luck (or bad luck) will heavily affect or flat out decide the outcome. You can lose a wager on literally one bad pitch. Starting to think I should devote my time to capping something else for the summer.

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KeeLoe, I like cappin 1st inning Y/N's because you can minimize some factors - Whoever most accurately caps ALL of the pertinent factors wins - and the hard part isn't the cappin, it is comin up with ALL of the factors. 1st inning you only have to look at 4 batters on each side, 1 pitcher on each side, same ump ballpark defenses timeofday streaks - it really cuts down on the variables. Maybe the nature of these bets will just be much more streaky than other bets. I think you should stay with it, just cut the bet to 1/4 unit.
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I am with you on the Bruins, but I went to my first Tribes game 50 years ago this year and I can't bet on em or against em. GL
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Thanks for all your work.

[70kgman]

--
KeeLoe, I like cappin 1st inning Y/N's because you can minimize some factors - Whoever most accurately caps ALL of the pertinent factors wins - and the hard part isn't the cappin, it is comin up with ALL of the factors. 1st inning you only have to look at 4 batters on each side, 1 pitcher on each side, same ump ballpark defenses timeofday streaks - it really cuts down on the variables. Maybe the nature of these bets will just be much more streaky than other bets. I think you should stay with it, just cut the bet to 1/4 unit.
--
I am with you on the Bruins, but I went to my first Tribes game 50 years ago this year and I can't bet on em or against em. GL
--
Thanks for all your work.

I probably wont give up on them entirely. I am 8-3 the last 11 1st inning plays I have made. The books are just catching on and making it difficult to play most of the ones I would like to play. A few weeks ago 90% of the lines on "no run" were between -110 and -145, very quarantined generalized lines, now they are being juiced through the roof, certain games juiced almost up to -200. Even if it still makes sense probability wise at that price, it still isn't really worth the risk because they can lose with just a tiny bit of bad luck. An untimely error, one bad pitch, ect... So, wont completely remove the 1st inning plays from the arsenal, but probably wont spend much time on them anymore, just pick some good spots very sparingly. p.s Good thing you layed off Cleveland, Carmona was dreadful tonight.

[cint2cint]

Better today, Good luck

[70kgman]

CHW/LAD - Run in 1st inning? - NO (-120)

[Full-Grown]

You got your percentages on whether a run scores or not brotha?

[70kgman]

You got your percentages on whether a run scores or not brotha?

32.26%. Though I wouldn't take the percentages too literally. They are more a generalized percentage based on the black and white fact of how often those teams score 1st inning runs and how often those starting pitchers give up 1st inning runs. There are still plenty of factors for each particular match-up like weather conditions, career numbers the first few hitters have vs. starting pitcher, stadium, ect... that cant really be worked into the percentage.

[Full-Grown]

cool, thanks and gl.

[Dan Kelly]

I probably wont give up on them entirely. I am 8-3 the last 11 1st inning plays I have made. The books are just catching on and making it difficult to play most of the ones I would like to play. A few weeks ago 90% of the lines on "no run" were between -110 and -145, very quarantined generalized lines, now they are being juiced through the roof, certain games juiced almost up to -200. Even if it still makes sense probability wise at that price, it still isn't really worth the risk because they can lose with just a tiny bit of bad luck. An untimely error, one bad pitch, ect... So, wont completely remove the 1st inning plays from the arsenal, but probably wont spend much time on them anymore, just pick some good spots very sparingly. p.s Good thing you layed off Cleveland, Carmona was dreadful tonight.

Interesting, I always figured luck as a fairly constant factor. I don't know if luck is more of a factor in bets of a shorter duration (if that is what you're saying). Maybe - it has always seemed to me that there is less luck involved in betting futures (my favorite bet of the past year - I had the Cavs under 30.5 wins, won it the first week in March).

[70kgman]

Interesting, I always figured luck as a fairly constant factor. I don't know if luck is more of a factor in bets of a shorter duration (if that is what you're saying). Maybe - it has always seemed to me that there is less luck involved in betting futures (my favorite bet of the past year - I had the Cavs under 30.5 wins, won it the first week in March).

That last white sox 1st inning play pretty summed up everything I said the day before. Two outs, one strike away from winning the bet, and Humber gives up a two run home-run, then is pretty much perfect the rest of the game not surrendering another run. The sample size is so small that just one anomaly that happened to occur in the 1st inning decided the outcome. So yes, I do believe the smaller the sample sizes of whatever type of wager, the more luck plays a part in the outcome.

[cint2cint]

Let's have some winners today

[Dan Kelly]

That last white sox 1st inning play pretty summed up everything I said the day before. Two outs, one strike away from winning the bet, and Humber gives up a two run home-run, then is pretty much perfect the rest of the game not surrendering another run. The sample size is so small that just one anomaly that happened to occur in the 1st inning decided the outcome. So yes, I do believe the smaller the sample sizes of whatever type of wager, the more luck plays a part in the outcome.

Here is the important question - Doesn't luck for all bets, no matter the duration, eventually even out? If the work is good the winners must come - That is the theory behind using 'Kelly Criterion money management' (no relation), i.e., a percentage of the bankroll on each bet depending on that bets probability of winning, so that as the bank roll grows the bet goes up and as it shrinks the bet goes down. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

[70kgman]

Here is the important question - Doesn't luck for all bets, no matter the duration, eventually even out? If the work is good the winners must come - That is the theory behind using 'Kelly Criterion money management' (no relation), i.e., a percentage of the bankroll on each bet depending on that bets probability of winning, so that as the bank roll grows the bet goes up and as it shrinks the bet goes down. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

You are probably right. I guess the small sample size of the 1st inning hitting/pitching stats to cap those props with was the more relevant issue there.

[70kgman]

Boston Red Sox - Team total - Over 5.5 (+100)

With Garza getting scratched late, Cubs are forced to go with a by committee approach tonight on the mound. Hard to believe Red Sox not having a strong offensive game when at least 7 on the innings they will get nothing but middle and long relief pitchers throwing 1-2 innings a piece (not a very good bullpen either). And if any of the Cubs relievers struggle, they really wont have the luxury of being able to take them out early, they need innings more than production tonight. Red Sox have averaged 5 runs a game at home this season, and have been the best hitting team in all of MLB in average and runs scored in the month of May, and have averaged over 6 runs a game over the last week.

[70kgman]

Played/going to play all of these for Monday. Take it for whatever it is worth.

Boston Red Sox ML(-118), RL -1.5 (+140), first 5 ML (-115), TT Over 4 (-120), Team to score 1st (-150)

St. Louis Cardinals first 5 ML (-130)

[cint2cint]

good luck on your pick

[cint2cint]

Bad 8th inning for Boston!

[cint2cint]

Today I like Houston Astros
A. Rodriguez
+1.5 -145

[cint2cint]

And Houston cashed!! GL

[cint2cint]

waiting for your new picks

[70kgman]

Just want to take a break from posting plays for a little while. Not sure I even really know what I am doing when it comes to capping baseball anyway. Also on the fence about the offshore industry in general for US customers like myself with all these major books domain's getting seized by the US government. Thinking about just emptying my accounts.

[dume walker]

Just want to take a break from posting plays for a little while. Not sure I even really know what I am doing when it comes to capping baseball anyway. Also on the fence about the offshore industry in general for US customers like myself with all these major books domain's getting seized by the US government. Thinking about just emptying my accounts.

I understand your ambivalence, K-Man. I hope you do consider rocking on with you NBA and NCAAB totals next season. Maybe by then the dust will have settled re: all this offshore stuff. Perhaps, if it's not expecting too much, Congress will get its act together and legalize offshore betting so they can get the much-needed tax revenue and we can do what we like unimpeded.

In the meantime, enjoy your summer!

[70kgman]

I understand your ambivalence, K-Man. I hope you do consider rocking on with you NBA and NCAAB totals next season. Maybe by then the dust will have settled re: all this offshore stuff. Perhaps, if it's not expecting too much, Congress will get its act together and legalize offshore betting so they can get the much-needed tax revenue and we can do what we like unimpeded.

In the meantime, enjoy your summer!

I will surely be back for hoops totals again as long as the offshore industry hasn't folded for US customers by then. If I feel like I get a grip on capping MLB in the coming weeks, I will be back in due time to share some input on whatever I am playing to anyone who may be interested. In the meantime, it will just be nice to gamble at a mellow pace and not have to worry about posting all the plays on the forum for at least a little while. It gets mentally exhausting. Have a nice summer as well.

[aussieH]

Hope to see you again soon

[Qtip]

I will surely be back for hoops totals again as long as the offshore industry hasn't folded for US customers by then. If I feel like I get a grip on capping MLB in the coming weeks, I will be back in due time to share some input on whatever I am playing to anyone who may be interested. In the meantime, it will just be nice to gamble at a mellow pace and not have to worry about posting all the plays on the forum for at least a little while. It gets mentally exhausting. Have a nice summer as well.

Appreciate the work/totals this NBA season, take it easy KG.

[Dan Kelly]

Have a good summer KeeLoe

Just want to take a break from posting plays for a little while. Not sure I even really know what I am doing when it comes to capping baseball anyway. Also on the fence about the offshore industry in general for US customers like myself with all these major books domain's getting seized by the US government. Thinking about just emptying my accounts.

Have a good summer KeeLoe, Let's hope the US government stops treating its citizens like infants, but I doubt it. On any street in Europe or Las Vegas a grown man can walk into a bookie and make a bet, Canadian or Europeans or Asians can get online and make a legal bet - sadly, we live in a country run by cowards, crooks, losers, and idiots (except Barnie Frank - too bad he could never be president).
Finding you blog was like finding a gold nugget in the sewer.
Thanks for all your work and best of luck in everything you do.

[cint2cint]

I'm very interested
GL on MLB too!

[70kgman]

Was planning on starting WNBA this week. Probably will stick to 1H/2H totals. No previous experience betting WNBA, hoping a similar model/capping that I used for NBA will translate to success in WNBA as well.

[Not-A-Kid]

Good to see you back 70kg. Good luck.

[dume walker]

Was planning on starting WNBA this week. Probably will stick to 1H/2H totals. No previous experience betting WNBA, hoping a similar model/capping that I used for NBA will translate to success in WNBA as well.

BOL on this K-Man. From what I've gleaned from those who do follow and cap WNBA games, it's one wild-ass league. Good to see you back in play.

[ManBearPig]

I'll be interested to see how this does so hopefully it's as successful as NBA was for you.

[70kgman]

I'll be interested to see how this does so hopefully it's as successful as NBA was for you.

You wouldn't happen to have access to a source with a 1H/2H points breakdown for last WNBA season as well, would you? No big deal if it is something that would take a long time to get. I would guess it to be somewhere around 49.1% 1H / 50.9% 2H since that seems to be the general area the linesmakers have been setting the half totals so far this year, but an exact number would be helpful, if possible.