70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[ManBearPig]

Do you know a trusted site that shows what the public is playing? Meaning where there money is.

I like to use 2-min warning...it's a little cryptic but they use the sportsinsights software and it seems to be pretty accurate.

Hope this shows... http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

[cint2cint]

BOL to everyone with their bets tonight

[70kgman]

DET/TOR - Run in 1st Inning? - YES (+115)
Projected probability: 72.43%

CHW/SEA - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)
Projected probability: 31.93%

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1st inning model: 0-1 (-1.25 units)

[Love The Action]

I like to use 2-min warning...it's a little cryptic but they use the sportsinsights software and it seems to be pretty accurate.

Hope this shows... http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

It's ok, but it doesn't give you totals info.

You're best of paying for the sportsinghts access. That depends on your BR and the amount you are playing. You could always do I like I did in the past and split the password with a friend. Makes it cheaper. BOL...

[ManBearPig]

It's ok, but it doesn't give you totals info. You're best of paying for the sportsinghts access. That depends on your BR and the amount you are playing. You could always do I like I did in the past and split the password with a friend. Makes it cheaper. BOL...

True but it's a resource.

[Love The Action]

True but it's a resource.

True...thanks. For free ones, I like checking ss, scores odds, bet us off covers and 5d off sbr. Thanks

[aussieH]

No good on the MLB play. On for the second play.

Good hit on the under 10.5 in yesterdays game

[aussieH]

1st innings plays struggled today. stoick to it though rewards will come

[70kgman]

I cant believe the White Sox scored a run in that 1st inning. They hadn't scored a 1st inning run in 15 straight games, and they were facing a pitcher tonight with completely dominant 1st inning stats so far this season. Just my luck. -6 units is the key number for when I pull the plug on the 1st inning model experiment.

[dume walker]

Just my luck. -6 units is the key number for when I pull the plug on the 1st inning model experiment.

So no more first inning plays? Or is it a unit a play, which means we have 3 more attempts to go? Seem to remember your NBA and NCAAF models hitting a couple bumps in the road which you got straightened out to great success. Wish you the best on this, amigo.

[Full-Grown]

I cant believe the White Sox scored a run in that 1st inning. They hadn't scored a 1st inning run in 15 straight games, and they were facing a pitcher tonight with completely dominant 1st inning stats so far this season. Just my luck. -6 units is the key number for when I pull the plug on the 1st inning model experiment.

Its all good 70kgman, things will turn around. Keep your head up and get em tomorrow.

[70kgman]

So no more first inning plays? Or is it a unit a play, which means we have 3 more attempts to go? Seem to remember your NBA and NCAAF models hitting a couple bumps in the road which you got straightened out to great success. Wish you the best on this, amigo.

I guess I have a tendency to give up on things pretty quickly when they don't pan out right away. Probably more quickly knowing other people are playing these and losing money. I feel bad enough losing my own money on the plays. We'll see. Hopefully it never gets to that point. And hopefully it is just some early bad luck, I thought both plays tonight looked great statistically. I was baffled to see them both lose quite easily.

[dume walker]

I appreciate your sensitivity to other people tailing, but I hope it doesn't cramp or inhibit your insights and creativity. You fairly warned all of us to tail lightly on the first inning plays while you got this ramped up. I've been doing that (going at less than a 1/3 of what I'm putting on May Model plays) so from my point of view your due diligence toward others and disclaimers are all in order. Hope that frees you up to do what you do so well... Find the winning trends in all those numbers. Have at it, K-Man.

[cint2cint]

good luck today, 70Kg

[aussieH]

As per what dume walker posted win lose or draw it is up to us to follow or not and we all should bet responsibly with what we can afford

Keep the plays coming as I have faith in your abilities and your sensitivity is great

[Dan Kelly]

I guess I have a tendency to give up on things pretty quickly when they don't pan out right away. Probably more quickly knowing other people are playing these and losing money. I feel bad enough losing my own money on the plays. We'll see. Hopefully it never gets to that point. And hopefully it is just some early bad luck, I thought both plays tonight looked great statistically. I was baffled to see them both lose quite easily.

C'mon KeeLoe, You know that statistically you have to let the size of the play grow - cut unit size (to a ridiculously small number if need be) before giving up on something you have backtested and think will work - you have to give the system a chance.

Thanks for all of your time and energy.

[70kgman]

LAD/NYM - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)
Projected probability: 36.00%

CLE/LAA - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)
Projected probability: 23.43%

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1st inning model: 0-3 (-3.60 units)

[Full-Grown]

LAD/NYM - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)
Projected probability: 36.00%

CLE/LAA - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)
Projected probability: 23.43%

---------
1st inning model: 0-3 (-3.60 units)

Thanks 70kgman, have a feeling you're gonna go 2-0 today. We're both due.

Both my books had them at -145 though. Where you bet at?

[70kgman]

Thanks 70kgman, have a feeling you're gonna go 2-0 today. We're both due.

Both my books had them at -145 though. Where you bet at?

5dimes is the ideal book for those prop bets. Every other book I have looked at juices the gap in the line on those props 10 cents higher than 5dimes.

[stc9357]

5dimes is the ideal book for those prop bets. Every other book I have looked at juices the gap in the line on those props 10 cents higher than 5dimes.

Hey 7kgman I do first inning props as well, you should stop by the no in 1st inning thread in the baseball forum, everybody who does the props is welcome to post.

[70kgman]

I feel especially good about that LAA/CLE one. Haren's 1st inning stats this season is 0.00 ERA 0.14 WHIP, against a team that has a 1st inning BA of .237 and hasn't scored a 1st inning run in 8 straight games. Carmona also has very good 1st inning pitching stats against an angels offense that hasn't scored a 1st inning run in nearly a month.

[70kgman]

Hey 7kgman I do first inning props as well, you should stop by the no in 1st inning thread in the baseball forum, everybody who does the props is welcome to post.

Great, thanks. Looks like you are on the same 2 plays. I probably would of moved over to the baseball subforum eventually. Just wanted to make sure I am going to stick it out with these first.

[cint2cint]

Angels good, Dodgers bad. GL today

[EasyHustlin]

Those 1st inning props are awfully hard to handicap. I think ultimately it's basically a 50/50 prop so I wouldn't ever want to play with high juice on them.

[70kgman]

CHW/LAA - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)

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1st inning model: 1-4 (-3.95 units)

[Full-Grown]

CHW/LAA - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-135)

---------
1st inning model: 1-4 (-3.95 units)

What's your projected probability on this one bud?

[70kgman]

What's your projected probability on this one bud?

I came up with 14.4% for that game, obviously that is a really extreme number because the current sample size is fairly small and the fact LAA haven't scored a 1st inning run in 21 straight games, and CHW have only scored a run in the 1st inning once in the last 18 games, and two very good 1st inning pitchers are starting.

[70kgman]

Nothing tomorrow.

[dume walker]

I came up with 14.4% for that game, obviously that is a really extreme number because the current sample size is fairly small and the fact LAA haven't scored a 1st inning run in 21 straight games, and CHW have only scored a run in the 1st inning once in the last 18 games, and two very good 1st inning pitchers are starting.

Thanks for this winner, K-Man.

[cint2cint]

best of luck today !

[cint2cint]

And today? Good luck!

[70kgman]

Nothing today either. Certain I will have one play tomorrow.

Looks like that May system is outdated as of this season. The totals in general have been getting lower and lower the past few years as the pitching has gotten better. Especially this season after last years "year of the pitcher". Probably will be lucky to see five totals 10 or higher all month, let alone have it meet the other criteria for a play.

[cint2cint]

good luck on ur pick

[70kgman]

SEA/BAL - Run in 1st Inning? - NO (-130)
Projected probability: 36.00%

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1st inning model: 2-4 (-2.95 units)

[70kgman]

Britton - 1st inning - 0.00 ERA / 0.43 WHIP / allowed 1st inning run 0 of 7 starts
Vargas - 1st inning - 1.29 ERA / 0.57 WHIP / allowed 1st inning run 1 of 7 starts

Baltimore 1st inning OBA = .255 (last in American league) / 5 straight games without a 1st inning run

Seattle 1st inning OBA = .273 (3rd worst in American league) / 6 straight games without a 1st inning run