70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

70kgman · 03-23-11, 01:11 AM

*2nd half wagers = 61-35

70kgman · 03-23-11, 10:56 AM

Just re-posting this, since the first one kind of got hidden in the last post of the last page overnight.

3/23

Boston / Memphis Under 188

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NBA Model: 110-74-3

p00t13tan · 03-23-11, 01:32 PM

im on it thanx for the play. do u do baseball?

70kgman · 03-23-11, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by p00t13tan

im on it thanx for the play. do u do baseball?

Not really, other than the occasional spot play here and there. Had a few ideas/angles I tracked last season, but none of them really panned out how I thought they would.

70kgman · 03-23-11, 07:39 PM

Miami / Detroit Under 99 2H

70kgman · 03-23-11, 07:45 PM

WTF!!! ESPN had the halftime score as 51-44 Miami. Then I check back 10 minutes later and it says 55-53, and they took the box score down completely. I am not going to buy out of it and eat the juice, but I don't recommend playing that DET/MIA 2H play anymore. Hopefully it still hits.

p00t13tan · 03-23-11, 07:47 PM

why dont u like the play anymore?

Bluehorseshoe · 03-23-11, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

WTF!!! ESPN had the halftime score as 51-44 Miami. Then I check back 10 minutes later and it says 55-53, and they took the box score down completely. I am not going to buy out of it and eat the juice, but I don't recommend playing that DET/MIA 2H play anymore. Hopefully it still hits.

Pay the $99 for the basic Sports Options service. They alert you when a halftime is up and you get the right score. gl

70kgman · 03-23-11, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by p00t13tan

why dont u like the play anymore?

I capped the 1st half box score thinking there were 95 total points scored in that 1st half, when there were actually 108. That changes everything. And who knows what the real box score stats looks like, they took it down after they changed the score 10+ minutes into the halftime break. ESPN is usually the most reliable free real time box score, but they screwed up that game. I am just going to go with it, hopefully it still wins anyway.

p00t13tan · 03-23-11, 08:04 PM

gl with the bet

70kgman · 03-23-11, 08:05 PM

After looking through the box score with the real score, I still think that under is a pretty good play. I would project the 2H around 94.

70kgman · 03-23-11, 09:06 PM

Guess I have ESPN's negligence to thank for that easy 2H winner.

p00t13tan · 03-23-11, 09:07 PM

nice hit wish i didnt see ur post about the not to bet it first lol

p00t13tan · 03-23-11, 09:08 PM

but i did get the under bos

dume walker · 03-23-11, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

Guess I have ESPN's negligence to thank for that easy 2H winner.

That and the fact Detroit only scored 13 in 4Q. I track the ongoing scores on SBR's board. I was staring at that Memphis 90 Boston 87 with 4 seconds left for what felt like an eternity. I thought are we going to get another OT rectal exam once again. Just didn't want to have to rip my computer out. Thanks for that winner, K-Man.

70kgman · 03-23-11, 09:21 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

That and the fact Detroit only scored 13 in 4Q. I track the ongoing scores on SBR's board. I was staring at that Memphis 90 Boston 87 with 4 seconds left for what felt like an eternity. I thought are we going to get another OT rectal exam once again. Just didn't want to have to rip my computer out. Thanks for that winner, K-Man.

I thought it was destined for OT when the Memphis guy missed both intentional free throws with 4 seconds left and a 3 point lead. Pierce front rimmed a 3 pointer at the buzzer. I was watching it on TV.

70kgman · 03-23-11, 11:08 PM

No model plays tomorrow. Small card, only two games.

Wisconsin/Kansas ML parlay is a good spot play for Thursday/Friday in my opinion. I got it around -140 a few days ago.

cint2cint · 03-24-11, 02:46 AM

Good luck today, thank you

dume walker · 03-24-11, 10:21 AM

K-Man, I know you only do spot plays in baseball. Any MLB cappers you respect? I understand Beating Baseball is supposed to be top drawer. Paco also seemed to have some good runs last year. I figure I won't put anything down until the NBA is over. By that time the best cappers ought to have a handle on what's what in MLB.

70kgman · 03-24-11, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by dume walker

K-Man, I know you only do spot plays in baseball. Any MLB cappers you respect? I understand Beating Baseball is supposed to be top drawer. Paco also seemed to have some good runs last year. I figure I won't put anything down until the NBA is over. By that time the best cappers ought to have a handle on what's what in MLB.

I did browse the MLB forum just about every day last season, but I didn't really keep a keen eye on any of the season long threads to be honest. I did occasionally follow people who posted a one and done thread about a specific play, but I really cant remember who was good or not by name. You can usually tell if they know what they are doing just by the way they present their thread for the play.

I don't really do NBA playoffs, so I will probably get bored with little to no betting over the summer and revisit one of the irons i had in the fire. I had a few promising experiments/angles I never really followed through with completely. I will let you know if I do, if you are interested.

I do have one angle I plan on playing that I can let you know about now. In the month of May only, play under on any total 10 or higher if both teams record is .500 or better. I don't remember the exact record of this trend, I lost my gambling blackbook with all my random notes and experiments...but it is something along the lines of 68-17 over the last four years. I know it was 54-16 from 2008-2010, and I think I remember it going something crazy like 14-1 last season.

p00t13tan · 03-24-11, 12:36 PM

sounds like a good trend to me

dume walker · 03-24-11, 03:19 PM

Thanks, K. I will definitely be looking to give those May numbers a go. Sorry to hear you don't do NBA playoffs. If you do try to get some models going in other sports, please let me know. The only sport I pick myself is college football.

70kgman · 03-24-11, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Thanks, K. I will definitely be looking to give those May numbers a go. Sorry to hear you don't do NBA playoffs. If you do try to get some models going in other sports, please let me know. The only sport I pick myself is college football.

Just don't think my NBA totals model would translate well to the playoffs where they are playing the same team for 4-7 games in a row. I guess I will still probably look for 2H plays during the playoffs, though I expect the lines will be sharper.

And I will let you know if I end up with anything for baseball. I had a primitive version of a model that revolved around the prop bet "will there be a run scored in the 1st inning" that showed promise in the little tracking I did last year, I may want to revisit that. Going to need a couple months worth of stats accumulate before I would start looking for those plays though. Those would be good wagers to keep the stress levels down too, they are over with in 10 minutes. lol

sbearc820 · 03-24-11, 07:08 PM

You gonna have any second half plays?

70kgman · 03-24-11, 07:19 PM

I am going to look. Slim pickings tonight, so it is probably unlikely I will find something I like.

dume walker · 03-24-11, 07:32 PM

K-Man. Question about your May MLB strategy... Is this something you personally psyched out, or is it a phenomenon that's becoming more known in the gambling community? My point being, is this a trend the books are becoming aware of and will adjust in reaction to? Really looking forward to giving this a whirl.

70kgman · 03-24-11, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

K-Man. Question about your May MLB strategy... Is this something you personally psyched out, or is it a phenomenon that's becoming more known in the gambling community? My point being, is this a trend the books are becoming aware of and will adjust in reaction to? Really looking forward to giving this a whirl.

It was a somewhat public trend that has been slightly tweaked. So I cant really say if it is something the linemakers are aware of and may make adjustments to. I normally do not like playing blind trends like that, but I thought the percentages were strong enough to give it a go. It is hard to believe a trend that is over 80% over a 4 year sample size will suddenly be turn into a losing trend.

70kgman · 03-24-11, 10:57 PM

Wow. Wisconsin are pathetic. Shooting under 25% more than 3/4th of the way through the game? And this is supposed to be the best FT shooting team in the country and they are shooting 55% from the line to boot. What a choke job.

twelvejewelz · 03-24-11, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

Wow. Wisconsin are pathetic. Shooting under 25% more than 3/4th of the way through the game? And this is supposed to be the best FT shooting team in the country and they are shooting 55% from the line to boot. What a choke job.

Yea there looking lazy and looking like they shouldnt even be there. I took the under 2h and took wisky -4 2h. Atleast ill probably hit 1 out of 2.

twelvejewelz · 03-25-11, 03:22 AM

Have any plays for friday that fit your system?

70kgman · 03-25-11, 11:47 AM

Locked in these ones so far, still considering a couple others that I will make a decision on later.

1H NJ/ORL U95.5

1H PHO/NO O99

1H DEN/WAS O107.5

NJ/ORL U188

p00t13tan · 03-25-11, 12:23 PM

lets kill the books today gl

Dan Kelly · 03-25-11, 12:39 PM

Kilo, LOVE your work - I do something similar, I have been reading your posts for a few weeks. FWIW - I am posting now because my picks jive with yours tonight, EXCEPT for the Was/Den OVER - I believe it has to do with the Melo trade.

Thanks for all your work and your posts.

SparJMU · 03-25-11, 12:52 PM

Just a heads up David West was severely injured last night and is not playing tonight. Just in case that impacts your play today.

70kgman · 03-25-11, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by SparJMU

Just a heads up David West was severely injured last night and is not playing tonight. Just in case that impacts your play today.

Thanks for the heads up. I did notice that injury and looked into it a bit more. From the article I read on the injury, Landry will be West's replacement, who is a good scorer but terrible defensively, so sounds like it will probably even out if not favor the over even more.