70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[phongmaxim]

Cleveland / Sacramento Under 104.5 2H

GREAT CALL FOR U105 2H, I ALSO WENT UNDER 215 FOR GAME>

[70kgman]

5-0 tonight. No model plays tomorrow.

[Shifty107]

nice hits kg as always.

[70kgman]

Kansas (+135) to win southwest, and Pittsburgh (+175) to win Southeast are two good future wagers in my opinion. I know, they are both #1 seeds so I am not exactly going out on a limb there, but I think they are the two most balanced teams in the two softest brackets. I am sure at least one of them will hit.

[70kgman]

Kansas (+135) to win southwest

The fact that Louisville lost this afternoon already mathematically makes this one a +EV wager, before Kansas even has to play a game.

[dume walker]

The fact that Louisville lost this afternoon already mathematically makes this one a +EV wager, before Kansas even has to play a game.

That's the best I could get it at was even money. No lines for the SEast yet. And Pitt is playing now, so I'm guessing that number will come down as well.

[sbearc820]

Will you have any halftime plays?

[70kgman]

That's the best I could get it at was even money. No lines for the SEast yet. And Pitt is playing now, so I'm guessing that number will come down as well.

After the Louisville loss, If Kansas end up having to play the best possible opponents going forward to win the bracket, I would probably put the line in the +110'ish range. That is worst case scenario though. As long as there is at least one somewhat significant upset in the bracket that eventually ends up having to play Kansas, your bet at EVEN will be good, at least as far as mathematically having an edge over the number you got.

[70kgman]

Will you have any halftime plays?

I will be looking at them throughout the day. Cant guarantee I will find anything I like.

[70kgman]

Memphis / New York Under 106.5 2H

[twelvejewelz]

looks like douglas and his 3's may screw our under. Hope they relax the 4th, good luck!

[70kgman]

What were New York doing taking three pointer after three pointer in the final minute up by 20? Screwed on a last second three pointer.

Oh well, good pick, bad luck...they hit 15 three pointers in that 2nd half and I still only lost by 1.5 points.

[twelvejewelz]

yea they beat the franchise record in that game. oh well let me know if you have any other 2h and ill try to make it up thanks!

[70kgman]

Locking in Charlotte / Oklahoma City Under 194.5 on the overnight line.

[twelvejewelz]

What do you think of a 4 point teaser of okc under 198.5 , and okc -5.5?

[dume walker]

Still no lines for the SouthEast regional. Any reason why that might be?

[70kgman]

What do you think of a 4 point teaser of okc under 198.5 , and okc -5.5?

No opinion. I don't deal in spread wagers, or teasers.

Still no lines for the SouthEast regional. Any reason why that might be?

Which book? DSI currently has them up. That is the book I used for those future wagers. Although, the Pitt line is down to +150 now. Maybe whatever book you are using will put them back up after today when the 1st round is over? Those future wagers were kind of last second things I decided to look into, so that is why I originally posted them kind of late.

p.s Just Locked in Houston / Boston Under 197

[dume walker]

I use 5 Dimes and Sportsbook. 5 Dimes doesn't offer those futures and Sportsbook is offering all the others except for the Southeast. Oh well, I'll just keep checking. Hopefully I'll be able to get it for plus money.

[ManBearPig]

Dam...your on the under of the Boston game...my numbers have it close, but I favored the over and like the fact that the refs are favoring the over...especially with the total between 195 - 204. Gonna have to watch the line on this one. I'm thinking it will be driven down due to the fact that the public thinks all Boston's games are unders.

I've also noticed that when two teams from opposite conferences play, a lot of times they go over the total, but this is an observation and I haven't run any queries to check that. I guess the good news is - one of us will be a winner

I ain't got nothing on your half bets though...straight cash those are GL 2-Day

[70kgman]

Dam...your on the under of the Boston game...my numbers have it close, but I favored the over and like the fact that the refs are favoring the over...especially with the total between 195 - 204. Gonna have to watch the line on this one. I'm thinking it will be driven down due to the fact that the public thinks all Boston's games are unders.

I've also noticed that when two teams from opposite conferences play, a lot of times they go over the total, but this is an observation and I haven't run any queries to check that. I guess the good news is - one of us will be a winner

I ain't got nothing on your half bets though...straight cash those are GL 2-Day

Boston are definitely unpredictable, not much in between with them. They usually go way over or way under. Sometimes they adapt to the other teams pace and run and gun right along with them, and sometimes they set their own pace (Slow). Lately it has been the latter.

[70kgman]

Possible I may add a play later.

3/18

1st Half: Washington / Toronto Over 104

1st Half: Charlotte / Oklahoma City Under 99

1st Half: Boston / Houston Under 100

Houston / Boston Under 197

Charlotte / Oklahoma City Under 194.5

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NBA Model: 100-69-3

[70kgman]

*2nd half wagers = 56-31

[70kgman]

Added the Washington / Toronto Over 104 1H.

[70kgman]

Texas San Antonio / Ohio State Under 72.5 2H

[70kgman]

Edited in one more model play to the card, going to play the 1st half under in that Boston game as well.

Houston / Boston Under 100 1H

[mrtsummit]

Thanks !! Looking good today.

[70kgman]

New York / Detroit Under 106.5 2H

[phongmaxim]

New York / Detroit Under 106.5 2H

awesome!

[70kgman]

Going to call it a night and not look for any more 2H plays.

6-1 on the night. Still kind of pissed though, should of been 7-0. That Boston 1H under was one my worst bad beats of the year. Crybaby zebra's calling non stop technical/flagrant fouls at the end of the half, and a long 3 pointer at the buzzer to push it over the total.

[twelvejewelz]

Your going real strong man, What does your system consist of? I was on the okc under cashed lovely! Any early leans for tomorrow before the lines move out of our favor? GL!!

[70kgman]

Your going real strong man, What does your system consist of? I was on the okc under cashed lovely! Any early leans for tomorrow before the lines move out of our favor? GL!!

It is an original model that is a hybrid of lots of different angles.

I always post my plays in this thread right after I make the wager myself. Not comfortable posting leans.

[dume walker]

I saw the Boston/Houston highlights and can understand why you're pissed. Still... A 6-1 night. Bring 'em on, buddy. I'm pissed that I missed your Knicks 2nd H pick.

[twelvejewelz]

It is an original model that is a hybrid of lots of different angles. I always post my plays in this thread right after I make the wager myself. Not comfortable posting leans.

Sounds good with me, what i meant was if you had any early plays for tomorrow to get the best line like you did lastnight with the okc play because it went down a couple points over night but since you locked it in early you got the best number i said it wrong i think sorry. Either way your on fire and i wish you continued success. I played the miami under last night to which was a bad call on my part but i couldnt foresee lebron finally stepping up and scoring 43 points that thing should have cashed but oh well on to tomorrow !

[70kgman]

Locked in Miami / Denver Under 205.5. There are a few others I am looking at. Will decide on later.

[70kgman]

Locked in Miami / Denver Under 104.5 1H and Cleveland / LA Clippers Under 102.5 1H.