70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[dume walker]

I will have to do more research into my results another time to see if the results pan out how I think that will, but in theory...playing 1H unders and game total overs for 2 units, and 1H overs and game unders for 1 unit sounds like a possible good idea for next season.

What's wrong with trying it out for the remainder of this season, or if not a full unit, pumping those 1st half unders and game total overs for a bit more than a unit?

[70kgman]

What's wrong with trying it out for the remainder of this season, or if not a full unit, pumping those 1st half unders and game total overs for a bit more than a unit?

Well, the theory behind possibility altering the units isn't really anything more than something that sounds good in my head right now. The results may say something entirely different. I would prefer a much larger sample size, but I will try to at least look through this season's results so far to see what it looks like. May take a little while, I am far from up to date on my record keeping.

[70kgman]

This is what I came up with:

1st half under: 34-16-2 (68.0%)

1st half over: 14-7 (66.6%)

Game under: 30-28 (51.7%)

Game Over: 11-8-1 (57.8%)

Probably too small of a sample size to make any conclusions. Just interesting to know what the breakdown of the plays looks like. Do what you will with the information.

[dume walker]

Thanks for the extra work, K-Man, giving us that info.

[dume walker]

Not sure what's going on. I tried to leave you points twice now but they just wouldn't transfer. I'll try it again some other time.

[70kgman]

One other reason why I think the 1H plays are stronger in general is because they have one additional filter I use for those that cant be applied to game totals. The league average for points scored in the NBA breaks down to roughly 50.6% scored in the 1H, 49.4% in the 2H. So I try to mostly play Unders that also have a 1H total over 50.6% of the game total, and vice versa.

And I am definitely done with using line movement as one of my filters to void plays after today. Voided a perfectly good play on the ATL/POR 1H under tonight because the game total moved 1.5 points up despite the consensus being around 50/50. It won by double digits. Seems like my math model trumps confusing line movement in the other direction almost every time.

Not too sure sure why the points didn't transfer. I received my points for logging in tonight.

[dume walker]

Tried 2 more times to leave points. Still got nothing. Watch. It's probalby on some sort of delay and tomorrow you'll get 40 points.

[70kgman]

Tried 2 more times to leave points. Still got nothing. Watch. It's probalby on some sort of delay and tomorrow you'll get 40 points.

Oh yeah, I forgot. They changed the rules. I think you are only able to transfer 2 points at a time, or 2 points a day, or something like that now.

Anyway, no plays tonight.

[dume walker]

Okay. So 2 points it is...

[70kgman]

There are some books out there that have LA Kings +1800 to win Western Conference. I would recommend throwing a unit on that wager if your book has it. Kings were my dark horse to come out of the western conference anyway, but with the trading deadline coming up and the Kings with far more cap space than any other playoff contender, as well as one of the most stock-piled farm systems with prospects (ranked #2 on hockeyfutures.com), I can see them making a big move at the deadline. You may see LA kings odds to win the Western Conference down to +500 or worse a week from now.

sportsbook moved this line from +1800 to +1200 a few days after I posted this. Should drop even more now after LA picked up Penner at the deadline this afternoon and the other Western conference contenders made no deadline additions. Not sure what the line was before at Bookmaker, but LA are just +675 at that book right now.

[dume walker]

Yeah, per your suggestion I jumped on it at +1800. Now let's keep our fingers crossed...

BTW, it seems you can only give 2 points per day. I tried leaving another deuce for the Kings post and it wouldn't go through.

[Shifty107]

Any thoughts on the redwings tonight kg. Think there is some value there.

[70kgman]

Yeah, per your suggestion I jumped on it at +1800. Now let's keep our fingers crossed...

BTW, it seems you can only give 2 points per day. I tried leaving another deuce for the Kings post and it wouldn't go through.

If they make it through 2 rounds, I will probably hedge it. In that scenario we will likely be able to hedge to set up a minimum of 7 units won regardless of who wins the conference finals, possibly more.

Any thoughts on the redwings tonight kg. Think there is some value there.

LA match-up well against the Red Wings, they have beat them in every meeting so far this season, the last time 5-0. Plus, Rafalski and Franzen are injured for Detroit.
No strong opinion on the game either way. I am not playing it, but I think the under 5.5 in that game would be the best bet on the NHL card tonight, assuming it is Howard vs. Quick in net, I haven't checked.

[Shifty107]

Cheers mate

[70kgman]

New Jersey / Phoenix Under 100.5 2H

[70kgman]

What a F-ing joke. Another easy winner screwed by OT, in a game that never should of even came close to going to OT in the first place. I have had 3 of the worst bad beats you will ever see in 3 consecutive days now. And to rub it in, I still had the under covered in the final 10 seconds of OT.

[70kgman]

Kansas St. / Texas Over 72.5 2H

[70kgman]

No plays today either.

[70kgman]

Late change of mind on something I voided earlier in the day.

3/1

1st Half: LA Lakers / Minnesota Over 103

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NBA: 90-60-3

[70kgman]

Dallas / Philadelphia Under 98.5 2H

[70kgman]

New Orleans / Toronto Under 94 2H

[dume walker]

After a monster 3Q we come within a half point of catching the under on the Dallas/Philly game. Sucks...

[70kgman]

Yeah, 7 points in a 15 second span in final 40 seconds of the game, mostly on intentional fouls. Another bad beat.

And guess I should of kept that Laker 1H over voided. Bad pick on that one. I only changed my mind because the line movement shot up 3 points late, making the 1H line just 50% of the game total, which is decent value in itself. Though I guess you cant really predict the Lakers shooting 29% against the worst defensive team in the NBA.

[70kgman]

Houston / Portland Under 99 2H

[70kgman]

Already locked these ones in. Will post rest later.

OKC/IND U210.5
NY/NO U201.5
POR/SAC 1H U100

[70kgman]

May add one more later.

3/2

1st Half: New York / New Orleans Under 102.5

1st Half: Portland / Sacramento Under 100

New York / New Orleans Under 201.5

Oklahoma City / Indiana Under 210.5

Atlanta / Chicago Under 182.5

Boston / Phoenix Under 199.5

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NBA Model: 90-61-3

[70kgman]

2nd half wagers record since February 1st = 28-19

[70kgman]

Added the Boston under. Now I am finished.

[70kgman]

UAB / SO Miss Over 69 2H

[70kgman]

Golden State / Washington Over 106 2H

[70kgman]

Portland St. / Northern Arizona Under 78 2H

[dume walker]

What happened to your post about Portland State/N. Az under 77.5 for the 2nd half, or am I dreaming things?

[70kgman]

Hmm, I know I posted it. I actually still have my thread opened in another tab from right after I hit submit post, and I see it in that one. Then I hit refresh and it was gone. Mod deleted it? Weird.

[dume walker]

Obviously, it's back now. But for a while there it disappeared. Fortunately (I hope) I was able to get down on it in time.

[70kgman]

Model plays went 4-2. 2H plays 2-1.

No model plays tomorrow.