70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[ManBearPig]

Hey, ManBear. I'm flattered you'd like to know the name of my ex-mom-in-law's book (she's actually written a couple), but I'd prefer not to i.d. her in a gambling forum. Not looking to complicate anything in that area of my life. Good luck with your BJ career. I never learned to count myself. Seems the casinos now have so many guards against it, it would be near impossible to pull it off. You'll find when you go to an increasingly rare single deck game they will not let you sit down mid-deal. You have to wait for a new shuffle. And they re-shuffle nearly halfway through the deck. That's to prevent "wonging". You can thank Stanford for that. Quite honestly, I think what K-Man is doing is some of the most exciting stuff going. That's why I'm hoping it stays low profile. I find myself walking a tightrope between wanting him to know how appreciated his hard work and results are while at the same time -- and very selfishly -- not wanting to alert others to it. These threads seem to warp with increased attention. So, K-Man, I hope you keep at it no matter what happens here and let those of us who couldn't psyche out your models if you laid them all in front of us piece by piece tag blindly along.

Oh...I didn't consider that but I see where you're coming from and respect your desire, I just thought it would be worth looking into as some extra literature.

As far as my BJ career, I wouldn't call it that, I'm just interested in the nuances of the game and just like to see how the pros approach it to see if I can find any extra edge. I'm only interested on counting in concept as it's much too difficult to do at the tables because I usually drink and do everything a counter won't do so I guess I wouldn't be very successful even if I tried.

[70kgman]

Do you look at it game to game basis (i.e 5, 7 games) or do you just consider a specific time frame more useful. I prefer a time-frame, but am looking at developing 5/10 game numbers to use, but I don't want to saturate it either.

I use last 3 games as my "short term" time frame. That way it is long enough to be relevant, yet short enough to be able to catch soft lines before the linesmakers make adjustments to recent play. And the secondary filter stuff incorporates season averages into the mix. So the finished product is a short term trends/season long averages hybrid.

Anyway, I am finished capping for the night. Won the math model play. Split the two 2H plays. Unfortunately that NJ/SA game turned into a blowout altering most of that 2nd half into a clock management "lets get this over with" pace.

[dume walker]

Another profitable night. Thanks, K-Man. I am digging on those math models.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Liking any whole game totals for tomorrow in NBA or NCAA?

[70kgman]

2/15

1st Half: Sacramento / Oklahoma City Under 108

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NBA: 84-55-3

[70kgman]

Liking any whole game totals for tomorrow in NBA or NCAA?

Nope. Only that one 1st half total.

[70kgman]

St. Johns / Marquette Over 77 2H

[70kgman]

Phoenix / Utah Under 105 2H

[70kgman]

2/16

Golden State / Utah Under 207.5

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NBA: 84-56-3

[Pauulzcappin]

k-man, what was your model's lean on the pacers/pistons game?

[70kgman]

k-man, what was your model's lean on the pacers/pistons game?

199.4. Exactly where the line is.

[Pauulzcappin]

199.4. Exactly where the line is.

Sick. Thanks for the info. I took into consideration how the Pacers have been playing lately in the last few games since the coaching change and I don't see it hitting less than 205.

Good luck tonight.

[70kgman]

Sick. Thanks for the info. I took into consideration how the Pacers have been playing lately in the last few games since the coaching change and I don't see it hitting less than 205.

Good luck tonight.

Good luck with that play. The 1st half over for that game passed through the first filter of my math model as a potential play. But the number the linesmakers set it at is a few points higher than I would of felt comfortable playing it at.

[70kgman]

Wisconsin / Purdue Over 67 2H

[dume walker]

Wisconsin / Purdue Over 67 2H

Strong call. Pissed that I missed it.

[70kgman]

Cut that GS/UTA under as close as possible. Barely won. No plays tomorrow. If anyone wants a good spot play tomorrow. I really like Boston Bruins / NY Islanders over 5.5. Hockey is the only sport I really follow, I watch all the Bruins games. I am confident that game goes over.

[dume walker]

Can't believe we dodged that bullet on the under. Total was 207 with something like 30 seconds to go. It was definitely 207 with 15 seconds to go. I had already written it off. Thanks for the 2 winners, K, even though I only got down on one of them. GL with your hockey play.

[dume walker]

If anyone wants a good spot play tomorrow. I really like Boston Bruins / NY Islanders over 5.5. Hockey is the only sport I really follow, I watch all the Bruins games. I am confident that game goes over.

Score is 6-3 and the game's not even over. Thanks, K-Man.

[70kgman]

Definitely an easy one. It went over the 5.5 in the first couple minutes of the second period. Since there are no NBA model plays for a while, if anyone wants another good spot play...I really like North Florida ML (-145) in college basketball today. Spread is -3, I would feel comfortable taking that as well, ML's are just my preference when it comes to NCAAB sides.

[dume walker]

Thanks for the pick, K. BTW, since hockey is your sport, do you keep a separate hockey thread going? If so, how are you doing this season? Or do you just post occasional spot plays like yesterday's?

[Nookx]

Looks like your kicking some ass 70kgman

[EddieMony]

Great NHL call!

[EddieMony]

Anything at all today?

[70kgman]

Thanks for the pick, K. BTW, since hockey is your sport, do you keep a separate hockey thread going? If so, how are you doing this season? Or do you just post occasional spot plays like yesterday's?

Hockey is my favorite sport, I have a good knowledge of all the teams, and usually watch all the Bruins games, but I actually don't bet it too often. Sort of the paradox to this thread.

These math model and 2H plays make up the bulk of my action right now. I usually make a couple spot hockey plays, and a couple spot NCAAB spot ML plays a week on top of those whenever I come across a line that seems glaringly soft. That's all. I have been keeping those ones to myself and not posting them anywhere, I have just occasionally posted a few of them in here when the math model plays have been in a dormant stretch.

[70kgman]

Anything at all today?

See post #439.

[Ambrucio]

North Florida Ml or -3?

[70kgman]

I played the ML.

[70kgman]

edit: hopefully nobody saw this. Box score I was checking gave out completely wrong information that they changed 5 minutes later. I bought out of it.

[70kgman]

Oklahoma St. / Texas A&M Over 68 2H

[dume walker]

Congrats on the winner, K. Wish I'd seen it in time.

[70kgman]

Old Dominion / Cleveland St. Over 68.5 2H

[70kgman]

Clemson / Miami Under 70.5 2H

[70kgman]

This one better win. I accidentally bet it twice. The screen froze on "loading" after I hit confirm, so I hit refresh, and it made the wager twice.

[KJ90]

67

[70kgman]

This one better win. I accidentally bet it twice. The screen froze on "loading" after I hit confirm, so I hit refresh, and it made the wager twice.

Good double click. 2-0 +3 units on the two 2H plays yesterday.

There are some books out there that have LA Kings +1800 to win Western Conference. I would recommend throwing a unit on that wager if your book has it. Kings were my dark horse to come out of the western conference anyway, but with the trading deadline coming up and the Kings with far more cap space than any other playoff contender, as well as one of the most stock-piled farm systems with prospects (ranked #2 on hockeyfutures.com), I can see them making a big move at the deadline. You may see LA kings odds to win the Western Conference down to +500 or worse a week from now.