70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[70kgman]

OKC shooting 2-22 from 3pt was the killer. After all the unders I have had screwed over in the final seconds by intentional fouls this year, I finally was set up for that reverse scenario to help me get a "lucky" last second win for once, and they missed 5 straight FT's at one point in the final minute.

Ive hit another patch of bad luck in general. The last three unposted 2H wagers I have made was an under that won easily in regulation but went to OT and got pushed over, an under I had covered by 11 points with 17 seconds left that somehow lost by one, and another under I had covered by 40 points with less than 7 minutes left, that lost by two points after a bunch of intentional fouls at the end and a meaningless 3 pointer at the buzzer. Kill me now!

[Nookx]

Gotta hang in there and keep working at your systems to make them even more sharp. Variance is part of the game! good luck

[70kgman]

1/18

Atlanta / Miami Over 190.5

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NBA: 57-42-2

[cint2cint]

I like it, good luck on ur pick

[Love The Action]

Im on the same play...good luck!

[70kgman]

1/19

1st Half: Phoenix / Cleveland Over 108

1st Half: Denver / Oklahoma City Over 110.5

1st Half: Detroit / Boston Over 96

Phoenix / Cleveland Over 214.5

Denver / Oklahoma City Over 219

New Jersey / Utah Over 192.5

Memphis / New Orleans Under 184.5

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NBA: 57-43-2

[dume walker]

GL on your plays tonight, K-Man. Let's hope all these shooters are dialed in.

[70kgman]

Hope so. I may add a late play or two. I originally voided a few because of line movement I didn't like that I am reconsidering.

[70kgman]

Adding Utah over and Boston 1H over. I hate playing overs in general, but that is what keeps showing up as plays in my model this week, so I guess I have to roll with it.

[70kgman]

Updated with one last addition, the under for Memphis/NO.

[Love The Action]

Looks like a lot of your games split. I feel your pain on the Hornets OT. I loved that under as a two unit play. I had already won 2 units with celtics under, and one unit with bucks under and magic under. The overtime just killed me because I had already lost on an earlier one unit NCAAB play. Under my model, I also have an under for the Clipper/Twolves game tonight. Therefore, that game is going to be a make it break it. Good luck with all your plays. Glad to see you back in the game.

[70kgman]

2-4-1 overall.

I just cant catch a break on these close ones. The only under I play wins in regulation but goes to OT. I lose the 1H Den/OKC under by a half of a point because Carmello misses a FT with 1 second left. The push on the Den/OKC should of been an easy win, they couldn't score those final few minutes. With even a tiny bit of luck, I go 6-1.

[70kgman]

1/20

Charlotte / Philadelphia Under 188

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NBA: 59-47-3

[70kgman]

If I lose again today, it might be time to for the season.

1/21

Atlanta / New Orleans Under 184.5

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NBA: 59-48-3

[Buried_PIRATE]

If I lose again today, it might be time to for the season. 1/21 Atlanta / New Orleans Under 184.5 ------ NBA: 59-48-3

Just noticed you were doing a model too... looks like only one of us will be right on this play

[70kgman]

Just noticed you were doing a model too... looks like only one of us will be right on this play

We have almost identical records as well. Kind of strange you came up with a projected total of 193. I came up with 169.8. 181.4 being an accurate total for these two teams based on season averages, and I have it going 11.6 under that number after I factor in short term stats/trends. I have been ice cold for weeks though, so you might be right.

[70kgman]

Already locked in these. Plan on adding the MIA/TOR 1H under whenever the line gets put up.

ATL/CHA Under 185
TOR/MIA Under 200.5
SA/NO Under 188
SA/NO Under 95.5 1H

[70kgman]

1/22

1st Half: San Antonio / New Orleans Under 95.5

1st Half: Toronto / Miami Under 102

Atlanta / Charlotte Under 185

Toronto / Miami Under 200.5

San Antonio / New Orleans Under 188

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NBA: 60-48-3

[Love The Action]

Good luck... my model has both of these games leaning slightly under as well. However, I am actually thinking about going with the overs.

Currently, SA is on 8 straight unders -- for a team that regularly scores 100 points and averages 205 B2B, it seems they are "due for" an over. Plus, if you look at the previous head to head matchups between SA and NO, they all have gone over 185 points (most around 190 or so). However, the under is always a good play here because NO will probably try to slow the pace down and because SA is tired, they will probably be inclined to follow.

In the ATL game, I like the over because ATL was thoroughly embarrassed after only scoring 59 points last night. If they have any pride at all, they should be pumped up to score some points. I think they will be angry and ready to score. I have overall and home/away totals set at 186.825 and 186.6 respectively. If you remove the 59 point game from their last five, I have a line for the last five games that is also set at 186. Plus, when you factor in that Charlotte will run more than they used to, especially at home, and the over sort of seems like the unorthodox play. Therefore, as long as this one stays at 185, I might pull the trigger on the over.

The public looks to be mixed on both these plays...slightly favoring the under in the ATL game and the over in the SA game. Not sure what I'm going to do but I wish you luck with your under plays!

[70kgman]

.

Good luck. I guess you can say my capping is pretty much the opposite of the "due factor".

[gtboy]

like mia under. should be wayyy under. gl

[70kgman]

1/24

1st Half: Chicago / Milwaukee Under 90.5

Phoenix / Philadelphia Under 206.5

Detroit / Orlando Under 192.5

Chicago / Milwaukee Under 178.5

New Orleans / Oklahoma City Under 192

Sacramento / Portland Under 193

New York / Washington Under 211

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NBA: 62-51-3

[70kgman]

added NY/WAS under. Big card but I like them all.

[Pauulzcappin]

I love the Chicago/Milwaukee UNDER but I suck on totals.

[erkanua]

Your last 18 plays are under, how about that?

[dume walker]

I missed the NY/Wash game so it was a 5-1 night for me. 5-2 night overall. Either way, that's some great picking. Thanks for the winners, K-Man.

[70kgman]

Should of stuck with my gut on NY/WAS one. I originally voided it for a couple different reasons. Then decided to change my mind late when I noticed a lot of books moving it down to 110.5 and Pinnacle juicing the U111 heavy shortly before tip off, which is usually a good sign. Too bad that Orlando game had whistle happy refs, pace set up that game to go at least 15 points under, but there were 67 combined FT's in that game, which is nuts for a game as slow paced as that one was.

[70kgman]

No plays tomorrow

[70kgman]

1/26

1st Half: Atlanta / Milwaukee Under 92

Atlanta / Milwaukee Under 180.5

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NBA: 67-53-3

[70kgman]

No plays today.

But I am going to be around all night capping 2H NCAAB plays, I will post them in here if anyone is interested. I am finding 2H totals are a lot easier to beat. This year is the first time I ever really paid any attention to 2H wagers, but I have been doing great with them all year. I am 8-1 last 4 days with 2H totals, at one point earlier in the year I had won 13 in a row.

[dume walker]

I appreciate your posting them. I'll be checking throughout the night. Good luck!

[70kgman]

la salle / st. Josephs Under 77.5 (0.5 unit)

[70kgman]

Ugh, that game fell into that dreaded 5-8 point lead range and stayed there throughout the final minute leading to non stop intentional fouls. 15 points were scored in the final 35 seconds.

.

[70kgman]

Arizona St. / USC Under 67.5

[70kgman]

CAL Poly / UC Santa Barbara Under 66 (0.5 unit)