70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[tonyp0387]

i like your thread im an SJ hater because hes full of crap, your tread is great keep up with the winners

[dume walker]

Thanks for the points.

p.s After noticing the recent posts in SJ's thread, I am glad my thread is low profile with just a few cool people who post in it who see it for what it is.

I feel the same way as well and was going to mention it in an earlier post. In fact, one of the reasons I post after each win is to reinforce the fact that, though we may be only a few, there are people who are following you and very much respecting what you're doing.

If you do get "discovered", however, and the haters start to show up -- which seems inevitable from other hot threads I've tracked -- I hope you keep on going even if it means sending your picks by PM to your loyal fan base.

[dume walker]

Ya man I agree his thread is full of all these haters. But there on his cawk the minute he wins 2 in a row.... You are doing great here keep it up!! I just wish I had more totals in my book for college.... Might be time to find a new book...

If you want access to college totals, go with 5 Dimes. I've yet to see a college game they didn't have a totals line for.

[70kgman]

Like the 2H under 95 in SA/DAL game.

[70kgman]

If I can, I may as well start posting some 2H plays as unofficial recommended plays like I have occasionally done with the NCAA ML plays. Haven't kept track of any kind of record, but I would guess I am hitting around 80% on those so far (small sample size, but still). I wouldn't wait for them or anything, I don't cap 2H's every day, just when I am around and not busy at night.

[dume walker]

Like the 2H under 95 in SA/DAL game.

Nice call.

[EasyHustlin]

An sbr poster who posts his picks and uses a math model?! This seems too good to be true!

[jose21_us]

If you want access to college totals, go with 5 Dimes. I've yet to see a college game they didn't have a totals line for.

Thanks!!

[70kgman]

Already locked in WAS/IND Under 196.5 + 1H Under 99.5. Haven't looked at college yet.

[70kgman]

Sticking with that as my final card. Game starts at 3:00.

12/31

1st Half: Washington / Indiana Under 99

Washington / Indiana Under 196.5

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NBA: 46-32-2
NCAAB: 11-12
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Overall: 58-45-2

[dume walker]

GL on your picks today, K-Man. And best wishes for a very profitable New Year!

[jose21_us]

Nice start! Lets hope they keep playing like that to finish the game!

[gatorbait]

thanks for 2 more solid picks kgman

[betforbread]

Nice calls yesterday 70 kgman .Happy new year

[jose21_us]

Yes very nice hits and hope this year you make alot more cash!!!

[70kgman]

Already locked in Northern Iowa / Southern Illinois Under 115. I will lock in the over in the Valparaiso/Butler game whenever 5Dimes puts up a line. For some reason that is the only total they have off the board right now. Both games start at 2:00.

[dume walker]

5 Dimes now has Val/Butler over at 137. GL on your picks today.

[70kgman]

Have these three locked in now. Still looking at two NBA 1st Half plays. Will post later.

Northern Iowa / Southern Illinois Under 115

Valparaiso / Butler Over 137

Dallas / Milwaukee Under 179

[70kgman]

Final card. Closed 2010 on a 12-2-1 run. Lets hope that carries over into the new year.

1/1

Northern Iowa / Southern Illinois Under 115

Valparaiso / Butler Over 137

1st Half: New Orleans / Washington Under 95

Dallas / Milwaukee Under 179

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NBA: 48-32-2
NCAAB: 11-12
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Overall: 60-45-2

[70kgman]

Split yesterday. Going with these today...

1/2

1st Half: Boston / Toronto Under 100.5

1st Half: Memphis / LA Lakers Under 101

Boston / Toronto Under 198

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NBA: 49-33-2
NCAAB: 12-13
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Overall: 62-47-2

[dume walker]

GL on your plays today, K.

[Love The Action]

What's your reasoning on the Boston under? I already won on the Pacers under and have the Rockets over and Lakers under pending. I lean under in the Boston game with Bargnani out, but wanted to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

[70kgman]

What's your reasoning on the Boston under? I already won on the Pacers under and have the Rockets over and Lakers under pending. I lean under in the Boston game with Bargnani out, but wanted to hear your thoughts. Thanks.

It showed up in my model as a good play? Cant give any other reasoning than that. 197.5 is an accurate total for these two teams based on season averages, which is exactly where the line it is, and I have it projected to go up to 15 points under that number based on short term statistics.

[Love The Action]

My total based on the last five games is (182.1) (based on a deviation model that I put together incorporating trends, injuries, intangibles, etc.). I basically come up with three totals: (1) an overall total; (2) a home and away total; and (3) a total based on the last 5 games. If those numbers are above or below the posted total and all the other factors I mentioned above also correlate, I pull the trigger.

While I was hesitant to pull the trigger on this one, once I checked out the injury status of the Raptors I decided to take it. Most of the Raptors best players are out. Hoping for a score of Boston 100 - 92 (and no more points than that lol). Good luck with all of your plays!

[jose21_us]

A clean sweep today!!! Very nice kgman!!

[70kgman]

Stress free wins are always nice. All three won easy and were never in danger of projecting to come even close to the to total at any point in the game.

[jose21_us]

Yes those are really nice ways to win!

[dume walker]

Another strong night, K-Man. Thanks for the winners.

[70kgman]

Only play I am considering tonight is a 1H play in the DET/UTA game. Will probably make a late decision on that one.

If any of you are action junkies who want something to play in the meantime, I think Boston/Toronto Over 5 (even juiced up to -130) in NHL is a good play tonight. Probably a push at worst.

[70kgman]

1/3

1st Half: Utah / Detroit Under 96.5

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NBA: 52-33-2
NCAAB: 12-13
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Overall: 65-47-2

[70kgman]

0-1 tonight. Just this one for tomorrow...

1/4

Chicago / Toronto Under 198

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NBA: 52-34-2
NCAAB: 12-13
------
Overall: 65-48-2

[ugabooga]

On this play as well, BOL.

[Vince724]

Since the NFL is coming to a close here, I added money to my account at Sportsbook.com just to tail you for the next couple weeks. Your record seems to speak for itself, I hope it continues.

I'm sure you have your hands full with this, but do you know of or follow anyone who runs ML or Spreads with varying unit sizes?

[70kgman]

What a crappy loss that was. Loses in the final 10 seconds of the game. What the hell were Chicago even doing? They were up by 20+ points and kept running a fast up tempo offense in the final few minutes of the game, taking shots with 15+ seconds left on the shot clock almost every possession and running up the score. Anyone who had it at 199.5 lost on that meaningless 3 pointer with a couple seconds left that Chicago made no attempt to even defend.

[70kgman]

I'm sure you have your hands full with this, but do you know of or follow anyone who runs ML or Spreads with varying unit sizes?

I just occasionally browse other cappers threads on here. Don't really know enough about anyone else's capping to recommend anyone.