70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

70kgman · 11-19-10, 04:32 PM

And I passed a little too soon. A recent drop in the line now qualifies these plays...Could get juiced back up before game-time, but I personally am locking it in now.

11/19

New York / Golden State Under 220.5

1st half: New York / Golden State Under 111

dume walker · 11-20-10, 12:52 PM

Bumping you up... Looking forward to your picks today.

GGZOLA · 11-20-10, 01:45 PM

good luck

70kgman · 11-20-10, 04:32 PM

I am playing these today. And yes, I realize they go against the line movement thing I mentioned the other day, but I don't want to be so black and white about that. I see value in all of these regardless if they moved a half of a point or a point in the other direction.

11/20

New Jersey / Denver Under 203.5

New York / LA Clippers Over 209.5

Orlando / Indiana Under 196.5

YTD:
Game totals: 9-7 (56.3%)
1H Totals: 10-6 (62.5%)

dume walker · 11-21-10, 12:55 AM

Congrats on another winning night, K-man. I've been tailing you at 1 unit per pick. Are you ever going to suggest larger wagers if your units show a stronger than usual mathematical disparity?

70kgman · 11-21-10, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by dume walker

Congrats on another winning night, K-man. I've been tailing you at 1 unit per pick. Are you ever going to suggest larger wagers if your units show a stronger than usual mathematical disparity?

Doubtful. I just flat bet all my plays for the same amount myself. I collected a bunch of notes and numbers with last seasons plays like if the team played the night before, how much or little the play mathematically qualified as a play by, and other stuff. and after going through it all after the season, I really couldn't find anything to make a conclusion that one system play is overwhelmingly stronger than any other play.

70kgman · 11-21-10, 01:27 AM

Only a few games Sunday, none of them qualify as a play.

11/21

pass

YTD:
Game totals: 11-8 (57.9%)
1H Totals: 10-6 (62.5%)

70kgman · 11-22-10, 02:49 PM

11/22

Orlando / San Antonio Under 196

Sacramento / Utah Under 198

1st half: Orlando / San Antonio Under 101

1st half: Sacramento / Utah Under 99.5

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YTD:
Game totals: 11-8 (57.9%)
1H Totals: 10-6 (62.5%)

dume walker · 11-22-10, 03:16 PM

K-man, got a question for you on your college football thread. Would appreciate if you could respond to it.

daneault23 · 11-22-10, 11:36 PM

Hey kgman, do you ever think about flat betting maybe 2 units or so on each bet instead of the standard one unit? I mean you seem to be consistently winning, and if u up the antey, you could make more. Just a thought.

70kgman · 11-22-10, 11:57 PM

2-2 tonight. Bit of bad luck on those two ORL/SA wagers. Lost the 1st half one in the final 10 seconds, and lost the game total in the final 30 seconds. The pace heavily favored the under but both teams shot way above their season averages and shot 60% from 3 point land. Nothing you can do about that. Just bad luck.

70kgman · 11-22-10, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by daneault23

Hey kgman, do you ever think about flat betting maybe 2 units or so on each bet instead of the standard one unit? I mean you seem to be consistently winning, and if u up the antey, you could make more. Just a thought.

I may increase the amount that 1 unit means to me as the bankroll grows.

dume walker · 11-23-10, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by 70kgman

2-2 tonight. Bit of bad luck on those two ORL/SA wagers. Lost the 1st half one in the final 10 seconds, and lost the game total in the final 30 seconds. The pace heavily favored the under but both teams shot way above their season averages and shot 60% from 3 point land. Nothing you can do about that. Just bad luck.

Only lost the vig. Small price to pay for having fun and learning along the way.

70kgman · 11-23-10, 01:56 PM

11/23

Atlanta / New Jersey Under 189.5

Philadelphia / Washington Under 196.5

Charlotte / New York Over 205

Chicago / LA Lakers Under 202.5

1st half: Charlotte / New York Over 103

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YTD:
Game totals: 12-9 (57.1%)
1H Totals: 11-7 (61.1%)

70kgman · 11-24-10, 02:07 AM

3-2. Should of been 4-1. ATL/NJ finished under in regulation, but game went to OT. Potential for a fairly large card tomorrow.

70kgman · 11-24-10, 02:55 PM

11/24

Dallas / Oklahoma City Under 196.5

New Orleans / Utah Under 193

Charlotte / New York Over 206.5

1st half: Dallas / Oklahoma City Under 100

1st half: Charlotte / New York Over 104

1st half: Chicago / Phoenix Under 104

YTD:
Game totals: 14-11 (56.0%)
1H Totals: 12-7 (63.1%)
--------------------
Overall: 26-18 (59.1%)

70kgman · 11-25-10, 12:42 AM

Tough night. Sorry. Guess that is the downside of playing the same wager on both the 1st half and full game of the same game. Most of the time on those, you are going to either win both or lose both, which will occasionally turn a bad night into a doubly bad night when the game doesn't go according to plan.

Going to pass tomorrow.

dume walker · 11-25-10, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by 70kgman

Tough night. Sorry. Guess that is the downside of playing the same wager on both the 1st half and full game of the same game. Most of the time on those, you are going to either win both or lose both, which will occasionally turn a bad night into a doubly bad night when the game doesn't go according to plan.

Going to pass tomorrow.

Hopefully in the near future that same system will turn a good night into a doubly good night. Enjoy your holiday, K-Man.

jose21_us · 11-25-10, 03:48 AM

wow this is my first time seeing this thread. Alot better than the college football one!! Keep up the great work.

70kgman · 11-26-10, 03:23 PM

So, just fyi, I made some tweaks to the math model and added a secondary filter. Like I mentioned in the FAQ in my original post, I removed my secondary filter that I used last season to increase the amount of plays for this season. I don't think it was a good trade-off in hindsight. I should start having ncaa plays by next weekend, and I thought the amount of plays needed to significantly reduced before then. I am not an action junkie and prefer just a few wagers a day max. This added filter I think should only weed out the strongest of the plays. These should be the last changes I make to my math model for a while, I am pretty confident the plays should get much stronger going forward now that I think I have a lot of the kinks in the details of the system worked out.

11/26

Indiana / Oklahoma City Under 205.5

YTD:
Game totals: 15-13 (53.6%)
1H Totals: 12-10 (54.5%)
--------------------
Overall: 27-23 (54%)

dume walker · 11-26-10, 06:23 PM

I like the idea of going with fewer but hopefully stronger plays. GL tonight.

70kgman · 11-26-10, 10:34 PM

Do I have the worst luck or what? Another easy cover in regulation, that is now probably going to lose in OT. Should of never went to OT in the first place.

dume walker · 11-26-10, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

Do I have the worst luck or what? Another easy cover in regulation, that is now probably going to lose in OT. Should of never went to OT in the first place.

Yep, OT screwed us once again. Still, it was a good pick. Looking forward to your next one.

70kgman · 11-27-10, 12:41 PM

Still no line on the CHI/SAC game, possible play on that as well if the total ends up being 198.5 or higher.

11/27

Washington / Orlando Over 194.5

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YTD:
NBA: 27-24
NCAAB: 0-0

jose21_us · 11-27-10, 12:46 PM

gl gman

70kgman · 11-28-10, 01:03 AM

1-0 tonight.

11/28

pass

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YTD:
NBA: 28-24
NCAAB: 0-0

dume walker · 11-28-10, 03:18 AM

Keep it rolling, K-man.

70kgman · 11-29-10, 02:16 AM

Passing again on Monday. That should be a pretty regular occurrence with the new secondary filter weeding out most plays that make it through the original qualifications now. But will start NCAA this weekend, so still should end up with some kind of action most days between college and pro once starting then.

70kgman · 12-01-10, 01:14 PM

Looks like I am going to have to start being more loose with that new filter or start playing "close enough" or somehting, or else it looks like that new filter will eliminate just about every play. I will work on it today. For now, here is a "close enough" I am playing.

12/1

Milwaukee / Denver Over 197

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YTD:
NBA: 28-24
NCAAB: 0-0

70kgman · 12-03-10, 12:35 PM

12/3

1st half: Minnesota / San Antonio Under 108.5

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YTD:
NBA: 29-24
NCAAB: 0-0

70kgman · 12-04-10, 12:48 AM

1-0 tonight. Been almost perfect since I made the final tweaks to the filters. 3-1 (the one loss being a win in regulation turned loss because of OT)

If I cant get to a computer before noon tomorrow, I plan on playing the under in the William + Mary / VCU game if the total ends up being 135.5 or higher, and the over in the Wright st. / Detroit game if the total ends up being 137 or lower. Both noon games.

70kgman · 12-04-10, 11:50 AM

12/4

1st half: Houston / Chicago Over 101

Wright State / Detroit Over 135.5

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YTD:
NBA: 30-24
NCAAB: 0-0

Richta Bean · 12-04-10, 02:12 PM

just wanted to say youre doing good work here and gl in the future man... congrats on your wright state winner

jose21_us · 12-04-10, 02:18 PM

sucks I couldnt get a total for the wright game...

70kgman · 12-04-10, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by jose21_us

sucks I couldnt get a total for the wright game...

Unfortunately, my main book hasn't starting listing totals on non-televised ncaab games yet either. I do use one book that has totals on all the games, but I have very little money in that book. So looks like I will be playing my ncaab totals for peanuts until my main book starts listing them. :/