70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

70kgman · 12-05-10, 12:02 PM

1-1 yesterday. CHI/HOU total lost by 1 point.

Here is what I am playing today. Technically, the under 214 for the game qualifies as a play too, but this match-up makes me a little nervous and I don't feel comfortable committing two wagers to the game. So I am just playing the 1st half, I think that number has more value than the game total.

12/5

1st half: Oklahoma City / Golden State Under 108.5

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YTD:
NBA: 30-25
NCAAB: 1-0

jose21_us · 12-05-10, 11:08 PM

Wow its amazing how many times a half a point screws us...

70kgman · 12-05-10, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by jose21_us

Wow its amazing how many times a half a point screws us...

Are you talking about the Houston 1H total from yesterday? Today's play won easy, covered by 12.5 points.

jose21_us · 12-05-10, 11:50 PM

That and also in CFB... The play is right but just hate when you lose by half or 1 point...

70kgman · 12-06-10, 11:38 AM

Nothing today. Only lean was on the MEM/UTA 1H over, but I don't really like the number the books put out there, seems adjusted a few points toward the over. I only liked it at 101 or less.

12/6

pass

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YTD:
NBA: 31-25
NCAAB: 1-0

70kgman · 12-07-10, 12:09 PM

Fresno/SD under seems to be getting hit hard based on line movement, already dropped 4 points in less than two hours. But I still really like the over despite that red flag. I am still playing it. I had let some opposing heavy line movement scare me away a few winners recently, not this time.

12/7

1st Half: Houston / Detroit Over 99

1st Half: Golden State / Dallas Under 102.5

Fresno St. / San Diego Over 126.5

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YTD:
NBA: 31-25
NCAAB: 1-0

dume walker · 12-07-10, 01:13 PM

GL tonight, K-Man.

incomeraise · 12-08-10, 05:13 AM

good job man!!

70kgman · 12-08-10, 12:52 PM

2-0-1 yesterday.

12/8

1st Half: Golden State / San Antonio Under 107.5

Gonzaga / Washington St. Under 142.5

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NBA: 32-25-1
NCAAB: 2-0
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Overall: 34-25-1

incomeraise · 12-08-10, 03:28 PM

70kg man in the first page it says u dont really rememebr ur record, but it was about 60% for the nba...what about college if u dont mind....good job so far, liking ur plays and keep it up

70kgman · 12-08-10, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by incomeraise

70kg man in the first page it says u dont really rememebr ur record, but it was about 60% for the nba...what about college if u dont mind....good job so far, liking ur plays and keep it up

I didn't document a proper NCAAB record last season like I did with my NBA plays. With so many college games, I wasn't really able to keep up with them all last season and just ended up capping a couple days a week or so whenever I had time. But from memory, I am certain I did better at college than NBA on the games I did play. Lines aren't nearly as sharp.

NYSportsGuy210 · 12-08-10, 04:44 PM

Any thoughts or opinions on full game OVER-UNDER?

Especially the Detroit-Hornets game or the Bulls-Cavaliers games?

70kgman · 12-08-10, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Any thoughts or opinions on full game OVER-UNDER?

Especially the Detroit-Hornets game or the Bulls-Cavaliers games?

I would put the DET/NO game at about 183, and CHI/CLE at about 206. Though the exact number on my projections lean a little toward best case scenario projections, so give them a few points of leeway.

NYSportsGuy210 · 12-08-10, 05:16 PM

Why so high for Chicago/CLE?

Bulls will probably put the game away early and Cleveland is terrible on offense.

70kgman · 12-08-10, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Why so high for Chicago/CLE?

Bulls will probably put the game away early and Cleveland is terrible on offense.

Don't really have an explanation. I am just a math and statistics capper and that is the number I came up with. The center-point of my math model involves short term trends, so I am sure the fact Cleveland has gone over the total in five straight and Chicago has gone over the total in two of their last three has a lot to do with my seemingly "high" projection.

NYSportsGuy210 · 12-08-10, 05:37 PM

I see. I looked at the numbers and averages and I got the Cavaliers averaging about 89.5-90 points at home this year and the Bulls averaging 95.5 points on the road this year (not including overtime numbers for three road games)

With Carlos Boozer back I think I should add a couple more points at least to that total should be more efficient on offense.

sweetjones55 · 12-08-10, 06:10 PM

Good luck on your plays tonight.

daneault23 · 12-09-10, 01:07 AM

OMG, I was about to be sooo pisssed if we lost that Gonzaga/Washington State under. Made me sweat that one out. 86 points in that second half.

dume walker · 12-09-10, 01:11 AM

Amazing with the WSU game. 54 points in the first half. 86 in the second. Just snuck under the total. Great night, K-Man.

70kgman · 12-09-10, 02:10 AM

Yeah, ended up having to sweat that one out after it was projected to go way under basically all game long up until the final 5 minutes or so. I cant watch these games on tv that I bet on anymore, I will have a peptic ulcer by Christmas.

On a nice 9-2-1 run now ever since making the final tweaks to the filters.

Thanks for the points justcover.

Marigold HD · 12-09-10, 04:50 AM

nice job

JustCover · 12-09-10, 11:56 AM

Looks like those tweaks have made a big difference. Keep up the good work!

70kgman · 12-09-10, 04:38 PM

Only potential play I am looking at is a 1st half wager in the BOS/PHI game today. I think the longer I wait, the better number I will get. So I am waiting until closer to game time before I (maybe) lock it in. So if anyone is waiting for a play, check back after 7ET or so.

70kgman · 12-09-10, 07:18 PM

Going to pass tonight. Was thinking about the 1H over in the Celtics game. The game total dropped over 4 points, I was hoping the 1H total would drop along with the game total, but it stayed put all at at 97 all day. Not going to play it at that number.

dume walker · 12-09-10, 07:22 PM

Admire your discipline, K-Man.

70kgman · 12-09-10, 09:22 PM

I knew that was going to happen. Would of been an easy stress free winner. I was so close to locking that in too, had my wager typed in and everything, but couldn't bring myself to hit "submit". 96 I would of, but just couldn't at 97.

70kgman · 12-10-10, 12:46 PM

12/10

1st Half: Miami / Golden State Under 102.5

Orlando / Utah Under 192

Wyoming / UC Irvine Over 143

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NBA: 33-25-1
NCAAB: 3-0
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Overall: 36-25-1

incomeraise · 12-10-10, 12:58 PM

like the picks and good luck....a little concerned about miami game tho, i think miami will score tons of point on them..but hope u cash!

dume walker · 12-10-10, 02:05 PM

GL on your picks tonight, K-Man.

dume walker · 12-10-10, 11:59 PM

3-0 for the night. I'm digging on these new filters, K-Man. Thanks for the winners.

70kgman · 12-11-10, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by dume walker

3-0 for the night. I'm digging on these new filters, K-Man. Thanks for the winners.

2-1. My Orlando under was a stinker.

Still a good night.

dume walker · 12-11-10, 12:10 AM

Sorry about the confusion, K-Man. I was a bit distracted this morning and booked the Orlando/Utah bet as an over. (Actually, I'm not sorry about that part the way things turned out.) That's why I thought you went 3-0.

Still, I'll take 2-1 every damn night. Thanks again, my friend. I left points in appreciation on your earlier post.

70kgman · 12-11-10, 12:25 AM

Thanks. Appreciate the points.

70kgman · 12-11-10, 01:02 PM

Already locked in my NCAA plays. There are two NBA 1H plays I am looking at as well, but want to wait closer to game time before I make a decision on them. Check back later for those. And just a heads up, the Miss/Ark-LR game starts at 3:00.

Kind of strange I keep coming up with overs on the NCAA plays, last year it was under dominant.

12/11

Mississippi / Arkansas-Little Rock Over 142

Colorado St. / Kansas Over 152

San Diego / San Diego St. Over 134

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NBA: 34-26-1
NCAAB: 4-0
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Overall: 38-26-1

Pauulzcappin · 12-11-10, 01:21 PM

Great job so far.