Ya I thought I had some great value at 199.5 That 3 at the end really pissed me off....
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I was lucky enough to get the o/u at 200. That three pointer still F'd me. I guess I won't hold that against you 70kg.
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I bought a bit more at 199.5 too. Afterwards, I seemed to remember you had some stat from way earlier that showed when the line moved against your original pick it was generally not a good sign. So much so that for a while (if I remember correctly) you held off locking in your pick until you saw how the lines were moving. And that if the line moved significantly against you, you sometimes switched your pick.
Anything we should keep in mind about that? In other words, if a line moves away from your original pick -- like last night -- should we think about buying some more for the extra value, or should we just be cautious and stay with what we have, not load up on any more?Comment -
I have started using line movement tracking as the final filter with my picks. Mainly to decide when the best time to lock in a pick is, but to occasionally void a play. As a stat/math capper, you have to respect some line movement, or at least be able to read the difference between the market rejecting a number and a line just "settling", which I think I do have a good grasp on now after repetition.Originally posted by dume walker
With that Toronto game, the line dropped from 199.5 to 198 early, I thought I would take a chance and lock it in right then on the overnight line in case it continued going down...didn't work out, it ended up going back up to the original opening line.
In hindsight, I would of still taken that under on that game the next day after the line moved back up to 199.5. It was clearly just the line "settling" into a 50/50 scenario for the books. And I still think it was a good play, just bad luck. Pace favored the under, Chicago shot 53%, and the combined shooting numbers for both teams were well above season averages, refs had quick whistles and that game had more fouls than you usually see in a game, and if you replayed the final 2 minutes of that game, I think it would go under 9 out of 10 times. It happens. Was a tough one to swallow though. Especially watching Chicago make no effort to run out the clock in the final minutes up by 20+, with quick possessions and still driving hard to the basket taking fouls right until the very end. Every other team in that situation would just run the shot clock to 5 and then take some low percentage outside shot. I really have to stop watching the end of close games I bet on. lol
But to answer your question, I probably wouldn't recommend playing it any bigger or doubling up on the better line later in the day. Well, I never do it myself anyway, though I tend to be a bit more conservative.Comment -
hey, 70kgman. sorry to bother but what do you think about the new orleans/gsw total tonight?Comment -
Thanks for the info, K. Looking forward to your next picks.Comment -
That game will most likely be my only NBA play tonight. Going under. Just waiting a little longer before I make a definite decision on it.Originally posted by PauulzcappinComment -
1/5
Golden State / New Orleans Under 199.5
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NBA: 52-35-2
NCAAB: 12-13
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Overall: 65-49-2Comment -
I have the same play for a good ammount of cash, hopefully we'll nail this one. Line going the other way.Comment -
0-1 yesterday. Hopefully get back on a winning streak today. I seem to be much better at these 1st half totals.
1/6
1st Half: Denver / Sacramento Under 105
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NBA: 52-36-2
NCAAB: 12-13
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Overall: 65-50-2Comment -
0-1 yesterday.
1/7
1st Half: New Orleans / LA Lakers Under 96
Portland / Minnesota Under 199
Wichita St. / Illinois St. Over 128.5
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NBA: 52-37-2
NCAAB: 12-13
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Overall: 65-51-2Comment -
Any totals today?Comment -
Needed a break from gambling today after the way this week has gone. Somehow I managed to lose 7 in a row. A few of them were bad beats but still pathetic! These roller coaster results I have been getting is mentally draining. Last year I was pretty consistent all season on a week to week basis, this year it is win every game for a week, then lose every game the next week, and repeat. Anyway, only playing this tomorrow...
1/9
Iowa / Purdue Over 132.5
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NBA: 52-39-2
NCAAB: 12-14
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Overall: 65-54-2Comment -
Any clue why that might be -- why this season's patterns are different from last season's? Just random variance?Comment -
I would say it is random variance that has just happened to pan out in that pattern.Originally posted by dume walker
Most of the recent losses I would categorize as bad luck. I know that sounds like a bad excuse but if you look at the losses, almost every one of them both teams shot over 50%, a good 5%-10% above average on both ends, and two of the games had close to 70 combined free throws in them. The main stat in my capping is pace and projecting pace, so no matter how slow the pace is, the unders (which is almost all my wagers) have no chance with combined shooting numbers that far above average, or if the refs are calling 35 fouls in the game. It is gambling, it happens, just frustrating that it seems to be happening on every game I touch lately.Comment -
Hang in there...the thing about variance is that, if you do the work, the breaks will end up coming your way sooner or later. Keep plugging away, I enjoy checking my plays against yours. With the recent overs, I needed to adjust. I did that and correctly hit the Pistons over last night. I won today with the Clip under and have the Heat over pending. I really like the Suns over, but I just can't bring myself to trust the Cavs to break 100. However, there are some very strong trends pointing over in that game. I don't see Suns going five unders in a row, and with Cavs on four straight overs, I like that trend to continue If you have any leans, I am sure there are more out there that would like to see them. Thanks and good luck.Comment -
Sacramento/Washington Over 197Comment -
bol today broComment -
1/11/11
Sacramento / Washington Over 197
Boston College / NC State Over 144
Illinois / Penn St. Over 135
Florida / Tennessee Over 137
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NBA: 52-39-2
NCAAB: 12-15
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Overall: 65-55-2Comment -
Glad to see your still posting. Thought maybe you decided to take a bit of a sabbatical.
GL on your picks today.Comment -
Was on a mini break, mainly because it is hard to stay motivated to continue to update the spreadsheet of stats and stuff every day when you are continually losing. At least I should have the tides start turning in my favor now and win 16 of the next 20 if this pattern of heavy peaking and plummeting in succession in week and half intervals continues to repeat itself.
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Man, if only you predict those peaks and valleys and how long each one would last. You'd be the richest guy in wherever the hell it is you live. And I'd be your best bud forever.Comment -
Guess it is time to pull the plug on the NCAA plays. They just aren't working out with this model. Sticking with NBA going forward. Those plays are still hitting at 58% even after the bad last couple weeks.Comment -
1/13
1st Half: Miami / Denver Over 101.5
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NBA: 53-39-2Comment -
Don't know how injuries factor into your models, but you do know that LeBron hurt his ankle and is likely out for tonight, right?
GL on your play.Comment -
I noticed. I will usually void a play if someone significant is out of coming back for the first time.Originally posted by dume walker
The article I read said..." but he probably won't be too fond of the idea of missing a matchup with Carmelo Anthony, so the safe money is on him playing". So I felt comfortable locking it in now.
And even if he doesn't play tonight, I still see value in the line, the linesmakers seem to set this one well on the safe side. And finding a 1H total set well under 50% of the game total on a match-up I have projected to have a high scoring 1H is a rare find, there is value in that number alone even without any kind of angle.Comment -
Good call.
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1/14
Sacramento / New York Over 218.5
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NBA: 54-39-2Comment -
1/15
Toronto / Washington Over 209
Charlotte / New Orleans Under 185
1st Half: Miami / Chicago Over 93.5
1st Half: New Jersey / Portland Over 93
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NBA: 54-40-2Comment -
3-1. Nice night. Thanks for the winners.Comment -
The plays that have passed through my first filter that I eventually voided because I didn't like the number or whatever other reason have been 7-0 the last four days. Sucks I didn't play them, but I guess a good sign that the spreadsheet model is in shipshape working order.
Thanks for the points. Only two games tomorrow. Not playing either one.Comment -
Not looking to make more work for you, but as the season goes on and you're able to assess the success rate of your various filters, is there any value in assigning a half-unit to plays that pass your first filter, a full unit to plays that pass your second and so on?Originally posted by 70kgmanComment -
I haven't kept track of games that passed through filter 1 that I eventually voided. They are on a good run now but I don't see much value in playing those games over the long term. My first filter weeds out games that should hypothetically go over/under a specified amount based on short term trends, my secondary filter comes up with a projected total for that game based on season averages, so I only play games that have little to no adjustment by the linesmakers. I void the others because the linesmakers have made a big enough adjustment to where there really isn't any value in playing it at that number.Originally posted by dume walker
For example, the MIL/PHI game from Friday...the OVER for the 1st half and game passed through my first filter as a play, which basically means it should hypothetically go 5+ points over an accurate 1H total, and 10+ points over an accurate game total. My secondary filter says an accurate game total for that match-up would of been 180.8, which would make an accurate 1H total around 91.3. The game total was set at 185.5, and the 1H line was set a 95 by the linesmakers. Both heavily adjusted toward the over because of recent play just like my model predicted. Both still won, but I guess my point is the line was adjusted enough to basically just make it a coin flip, or just a hair better than a coin flip at best. I only would of seen value in taking them if the line was better, at, or only minimally adjusted from my secondary filters projected total for that game.Comment -
1/17
Oklahoma City / LA Lakers Over 203
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NBA: 57-41-2Comment -
113 point first half, 82 point second half. Bad friggin' beat.Comment