70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[70kgman]

Already locked in 1st half: Orlando / Dallas Under 95.5. Will post full card w/ college plays later.

I am personally cutting back the unit size of my college plays until January. I am a stat capper, and use short term trends/stats as the primary focus of my capping, and December is the month where most teams have at least a few games against horrid D1AA teams, I just have a feeling those games might be skewing the numbers which might explain why my college plays have gone down the toilet over the last couple weeks.

[jose21_us]

I like the play especially since earlier it was at 95.

[70kgman]

12/21

1st Half: Dallas / Orlando Under 95.5

Long Beach St. / Arizona St. Over 139.5

Youngstown St. / Kent State Under 137

UNLV / Kansas St. Under 138

Cal Poly SLO / Pepperdine Under 126

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NBA: 36-30-1
NCAAB: 7-8
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Overall: 44-39-1

[jose21_us]

good call with the under in dallas game.

[70kgman]

3-2 overall. A disappointing 3-2 though. Should of been 4-1. The Cal Poly / Pepperdine under was another one of those bullshit games that was projected to go 20 points under the total with a few minutes left, then non stop intentional fouls and 5 second possessions in the last couple minutes because the game stayed in the 5-8 point range.

[70kgman]

Already locked in ATL/CLE 1H Under 96. Haven't looked at NCAA yet.

[jose21_us]

Gl today!

[70kgman]

12/21

1st Half: Atlanta / Cleveland Under 96

1st Half: New Orleans / New Jersey Under 93.5

Louisville / Western Kentucky Under 137

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NBA: 37-30-1
NCAAB: 9-10
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Overall: 47-41-1

[dume walker]

GL tonight, K-Man.

[70kgman]

p.s Also like the 1H under in the NO/NJ game. A little hesitant to play it because the game line opened at 182 and went up to 185. But if the game line happens to start dropping late, I will probably add it to the card last minute.

[dume walker]

p.s Also like the 1H under in the NO/NJ game. A little hesitant to play it because the game line opened at 182 and went up to 185. But if the game line happens to start dropping late, I will probably add it to the card last minute.

I understand you're using line movement to help you make your decision. But if you really like this line shouldn't we lock in the under while the total is higher?

[70kgman]

I understand you're using line movement to help you make your decision. But if you really like this line shouldn't we lock in the under while the total is higher?

If it was the game total, I would say yes. But I have noticed the game and 1H totals don't usually move in unison. So I think I could still grab the 1H total at 93.5 even if the game line goes down a point or so.

Okay, I am just going to go for it. New Jersey hasn't gone over a 1H total in 6 straight games, and New Orleans haven't gone over a 1H total in 3 straight games. Yesterday I let the 3 point line movement toward the over in the NJ/NO game scare me away from taking the 1H under, which ended up winning quite easily. Don't want to regret it again.

Edited that play into my other post.

[70kgman]

Guess I should of controlled myself with that NJ/NO game. huh? That one is ugly. NO shot 80%, and NJ 62% in that first quarter. Aren't these supposed to be a couple of the worst shooting teams in the league? lol

[70kgman]

I see a great opportunity for a 2nd half under bet in this NJ/NO game though. The pace is ridiculously slow in this game despite the score, a lot slower than even the Boston game which is projected to go in the low 160's at halftime despite both teams shooting about their average. NO and NJ are just shooting way over their head in this first half, they will come back to earth. Refs aren't calling too many fouls either. Should be a very low scoring 2nd half.

[incomeraise]

did you take a break 70kgman?

[70kgman]

did you take a break 70kgman?

Fell behind a little getting my spreadsheet current because of bad weather knocking my internet connection out for most of a couple days. Got it up to date now. Will be back tomorrow.

[70kgman]

Already locked in 1st half: PHI/GS under 104. Will probably add the 1H under in DET/CHA later (despite the sketchy LM toward the over). Think I may be able to get a better number if I wait a little longer on that one.

[70kgman]

12/27

1st Half: Detroit / Charlotte Under 98

1st Half: Philadelphia / Golden State Under 104

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NBA: 38-31-1
NCAAB: 9-11
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Overall: 48-43-1

[jose21_us]

wow I could have sworn we were going to get that under in the philly game... I missed your detroit play...

[70kgman]

yeah. Still got the push though. Looked like an easy win with a couple minutes to go, and then Golden State kept hitting three pointers on basically every possession to close the half.

[dume walker]

Cutting both of them about as close as you can get. Thanks for the winner, K-Man.

[70kgman]

I already locked in BOS/IND Under 191.5 + 1H Under 99, and Long Beach St. / UC Santa Barbara Over 140. Still looking at a couple other potential plays.

[jose21_us]

Jumping on all 3!! GL!

[70kgman]

Here is my full card. A lot of games, I know. But I like them all. Hopefully playing both the 1H and game total on two of the games doesn't backfire. Today's card probably sets up for a potential big night, or a slaughter. Hopefully the aforementioned.

12/28

1st Half: Boston / Indiana Under 99

1st Half: New York / Miami Under 105

Boston / Indiana Under 191.5

New York / Miami Under 204.5

Milwaukee / Chicago Under 180

Long Beach St. / UC Santa Barbara Over 140

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NBA: 39-31-2
NCAAB: 9-11
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Overall: 49-43-2

[dume walker]

BOL tonight, K-Man.

[70kgman]

5-1 tonight. Just lost the college game. Maybe I should take a break from college, for whatever reason my college picks have sucked so far, 4-12 last 16. Killing my overall record.

I am going to lock in Boston/Detroit Under 188.5 now on the overnight line. I See it starting to go to 188 at a few books, so may as well jump on it now.

[dume walker]

Great night last night, K-Man. Thanks for all the winners.

[70kgman]

Also locked in the BOS/DET U94.5 1H.

Still on the fence with one game. Mathematically, the game and 1H under in the IND/WAS game fit my criteria for a play and look good to me, but the line movement kind of gives off a bad vibe. Going to wait that one out instead of impulsively just locking it in anyway, like usual.

[70kgman]

Locked in Creighton/Illinois St. Under 121.

Changed one detail with my college math model, NCAA plays should be stronger going forward.

[70kgman]

Final card. Didn't want to commit two wagers to that IND/WAS game, so just decided on the 1H. That line is over 51% of the game total which is pretty high regardless.

12/29

1st Half: Boston / Detroit Under 94.5

1st Half: Indiana / Washington Under 100

Boston / Detroit Under 188.5

Creighton / Illinois St. Under 121

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NBA: 44-31-2
NCAAB: 9-12
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Overall: 54-44-2

* Would recommend taking Indiana St. ML -190 (or -4.5) tonight too.

[dume walker]

Another strong night. Thanks for the winners.

[70kgman]

Only playing this one today...

12/30

Wisc-Milwaukee / Wright St. Under 129

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NBA: 46-32-2
NCAAB: 10-12
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Overall: 57-45-2

[dume walker]

I'm digging on your new college filters. Thanks for the winner.

[70kgman]

Thanks for the points.

p.s After noticing the recent posts in SJ's thread, I am glad my thread is low profile with just a few cool people who post in it who see it for what it is.

[jose21_us]

Ya man I agree his thread is full of all these haters. But there on his cawk the minute he wins 2 in a row.... You are doing great here keep it up!! I just wish I had more totals in my book for college.... Might be time to find a new book...