70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

Bbr · 11-10-10, 04:15 AM

Interesting thread. Will keep a close eye. Keep it up.

70kgman · 11-10-10, 11:57 AM

Quite a few games fit the parameters of a play tonight...

11/10

Utah / Orlando Under 194

Houston / Washington Over 212.5

Golden State / New York Under 215

Dallas / Memphis Under 197.5

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YTD:
5-1 (+3.90 units)

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Additional 1st half system plays (YTD: 1-1):

Utah / Orlando Under 96

Charlotte / Toronto Under 97

Cleveland / New Jersey Over 97.5

Nookx · 11-10-10, 12:36 PM

Thanks for posting as always. I had a couple of the same thoughts as your system. GL today! Thanks for the 1st half plays.

70kgman · 11-10-10, 02:47 PM

Line movement on these are making me nervous. They are all moving in the wrong direction. Last season this system was very sharp at beating closing lines. Hasn't been too good in that department so far this year (even though the plays have still been winning regardless). Hopefully it is just an abundance of square money coming in on them, or some kind of oddsmakers trick to fool the steam chasers and line movement bettors.

70kgman · 11-10-10, 10:47 PM

Went 1-3 on game totals. 2-1 on 1H totals. Should of been 2-2 on the game totals. I cant believe that bad beat with Orlando, game was projected to end around 150 all game long, and then they score like crazy right at the end. Still should of covered easily, Orlando kept intentionally fouling Utah at the very end down by double digits...wtf? That is the kind of bad beat that makes you want to quit gambling. Anyway...

11/11

Pass

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YTD:
Game totals: 6-4 (+1.60 units)
1H Totals: 3-2 (+0.80 units)

70kgman · 11-12-10, 12:11 PM

11/12

Game totals:

Pass

1st half totals:

Toronto / Orlando Under 99.5

Philadelphia / Dallas Over 98

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YTD:
Game totals: 6-4 (+1.60 units)
1H Totals: 3-2 (+0.80 units)

70kgman · 11-13-10, 12:28 PM

11/13

Toronto/Miami Over 199.5

1st Half: Chicago / Washington Under 100

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YTD:
Game totals: 6-4 (+1.60 units)
1H Totals: 4-3 (+0.70 units)

70kgman · 11-13-10, 06:32 PM

Minnesota/Atlanta Under 206 and Detroit/Sacramento under 202.5 are going to be two plays for tomorrow (Sunday), if you want to get them in early to (hopefully) beat the line movement.

Geschwindigkeit · 11-13-10, 06:39 PM

thanks man
Best of Luck

70kgman · 11-14-10, 11:12 AM

11/14

Minnesota / Atlanta Under 206

Detroit / Sacramento Under 202.5

1st Half: Detroit / Sacramento Under 101

1st Half: Oklahoma City / San Antonio Over 103.5

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YTD:
Game totals: 7-4 (+2.60 units)
1H Totals: 5-3 (+1.70 units)

Nookx · 11-14-10, 01:17 PM

The spurs play @ OKC on 11/4 Not New Orleans @ SA. Is that what you meant for your 1st half play?

70kgman · 11-14-10, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Nookx

The spurs play @ OKC on 11/4 Not New Orleans @ SA. Is that what you meant for your 1st half play?

Oops, yeah, that was a typo. SA/OKC over 103.5 is the play.

dume walker · 11-14-10, 09:33 PM

Thanks for the winners, K-man.

Any chance you'll be posting your college totals here as well? Or do we need to go to the college section for those?

70kgman · 11-14-10, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Thanks for the winners, K-man.

Any chance you'll be posting your college totals here as well? Or do we need to go to the college section for those?

Yeah, I am going to post them in here, make it a combo thread. Wont have any plays until early December though. Need some stats to accumulate. And the books don't start listing totals on all the games for probably a couple more weeks.

70kgman · 11-14-10, 10:41 PM

3-1 today. Easily could of been 4-0. Kind of a bad beat on the Atlanta/Minnesota under...non-stop intentional fouls in the final minute of that game, leading to a ton of last second garbage points pushing it over.

No game totals tomorrow. Probably will have a 1st half play on the DAL/NO game depending on the line. Will post tomorrow.

Thanks for the points dume.

Updated YTD:
Game totals: 8-5 (61.5%)
1H Totals: 7-3 (70%)

70kgman · 11-15-10, 12:28 PM

11/15

1st Half: New Orleans / Dallas Under 92.5

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YTD:
Game totals: 8-5 (61.5%)
1H Totals: 7-3 (70%)

70kgman · 11-16-10, 11:42 AM

0-1 yesterday. Tonight...

11/16

1st Half: Chicago / Houston Under 100.5

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YTD:
Game totals: 8-5 (61.5%)
1H Totals: 7-4 (63.6%)

dume walker · 11-16-10, 09:53 PM

Nice call on tonight's under, K-man. Thanks for the winner.

70kgman · 11-17-10, 12:17 AM

Thanks dume. 1-0 tonight. The two game totals for tomorrow are LAC/MIN Over 208.5 and LAL/DET Over 203, if you want to lock them in early. Will post full card with 1st half plays tomorrow.

Updated YTD:
Game totals: 8-5 (61.5%)
1H Totals: 8-4 (66.6%)

dume walker · 11-17-10, 12:25 AM

I do appreciate the early heads-up. Couple times I've had to buy points because the lines had already moved. Paid off in the end though. BOL tomorrow.

70kgman · 11-17-10, 11:39 AM

11/16

LA Clippsers / Minnesota Over 208.5

LA Lakers / Detroit Over 203

1st Half: Toronto / Phhiladelphia Over 104.5

1st Half: Houston / Oklahoma City Over 107

1st Half: LA Clippers / Minnesota Over 107

* With all these over showing up in a system/math model that produces mostly under plays, tonight might be a good night to play the grand salami over if your book has that.

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YTD:
Game totals: 8-5 (61.5%)
1H Totals: 8-4 (66.6%)

dume walker · 11-17-10, 10:54 PM

Another night in the black.

Thanks, K-man. Hope your Grand Salami hit. My books didn't offer it.

70kgman · 11-18-10, 12:09 AM

thanks again dume. 3-2 tonight. 1-1 on game totals. 2-1 on 1h totals.

11/18

Pass

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YTD:
Game totals: 9-6 (60.0%)
1H Totals: 10-5 (66.6%)

6figure · 11-18-10, 10:32 AM

Bump....

Duby · 11-18-10, 10:34 AM

Nice start to the year! Keep it up

70kgman · 11-18-10, 11:45 AM

Random fact...

On my game totals (9-6), they are 8-1 when the line movement moves in the same direction I am taking from the opening line to closing line. They are 1-4 when the line movement goes in the opposite direction. Something to keep an eye on, and something to think about for anyone seeing the plays late who are planning on following.

dume walker · 11-18-10, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by 70kgman

Random fact...

On my game totals (9-6), they are 8-1 when the line movement moves in the same direction I am taking from the opening line to closing line. They are 1-4 when the line movement goes in the opposite direction. Something to keep an eye on, and something to think about for anyone seeing the plays late who are planning on following.

So is there any merit to your adding another layer to your process... Making your picks... Holding off on them for a while... Seeing which way the line goes... Using that as a last qualifier... Then making those adjustments and posting... Or is that way too complex and going to far against the grain of your core models.

I mean, are you telling us to fade some of your picks if -- by the time we see them and go to make our wagers -- the line has moved against your choices?

Nookx · 11-18-10, 04:22 PM

No, hes telling us it's something to think about.

70kgman · 11-18-10, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

So is there any merit to your adding another layer to your process... Making your picks... Holding off on them for a while... Seeing which way the line goes... Using that as a last qualifier... Then making those adjustments and posting... Or is that way too complex and going to far against the grain of your core models.

I mean, are you telling us to fade some of your picks if -- by the time we see them and go to make our wagers -- the line has moved against your choices?

Like nook said, just an early observation to keep an eye on. Way too small of a sample size to come to any final conclusion.

My math model is always unfinished and a work in progress. I collect a whole assortment of different stats and numbers and stuff on all my plays, once the season is over and have an even larger sample size of data, I can analyze those random things I kept track of in hindsight and tweak the filters and parameters to ideally make it even stronger for the next season.

70kgman · 11-19-10, 01:40 AM

I was curious about that trend I mentioned earlier. I lost last seasons results but remembered I had a couple months of the plays saved in a old email. After going through them and comparing them to the closing lines, I actually saw pretty similar results. So I am going to make an on the fly change and start using that as a final filter. So I will start posting the games each afternoon instead of overnight.

dume walker · 11-19-10, 02:11 AM

Thanks for the extra work, K-man. And letting us in on your process. Fascinating stuff. Looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

HappyWinner · 11-19-10, 10:02 AM

GL man, looking forward to your plays!

70kgman · 11-19-10, 02:08 PM

That same line movement filter applied to my 1st half plays turns it's 10-5 record into an 8-2 record. I think I am onto something. So just that one filter applied to all my plays so far this season turns it's 19-11 overall record into a 16-3 record.

anyway, I am going to pass again tonight. Now with these tightened up filters, I should have less plays going forward and pass a lot more often, but be able to weed out just the cream of the crop when I do come up with plays.

11/19

Pass

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YTD:
Game totals: 9-6 (60.0%)
1H Totals: 10-5 (66.6%)

dume walker · 11-19-10, 03:05 PM

[quote=70kgman;7515179]That same line movement filter applied to my 1st half plays turns it's 10-5 record into an 8-2 record. I think I am onto something. So just that one filter applied to all my plays so far this season turns it's 19-11 overall record into a 16-3 record.

anyway, I am going to pass again tonight. Now with these tightened up filters, I should have less plays going forward and pass a lot more often, but be able to weed out just the cream of the crop when I do come up with plays.

11/19

Pass

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YTD:
Game totals: 9-6 (60.0%)
1H Totals: 10-5 (66.6%)[/quote

So first half plays would have shown 6 units of profit out of 10 risked units this new way instead of 5 units of profit from 15 risked units. And overall, 13 units of profit from 19 risked units the new way vs. 8 units of profit from 30 risked units.

Very exciting. Let's hope this you're on to something here.

70kgman · 11-19-10, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

So first half plays would have shown 6 units of profit out of 10 risked units this new way instead of 5 units of profit from 15 risked units. And overall, 13 units of profit from 19 risked units the new way vs. 8 units of profit from 30 risked units.

Very exciting. Let's hope this you're on to something here.

Yes, minus juice.

Basically what it comes down to is the question "what has the most value?". Continuing to play all the games on the opening line and getting the best number possible roughly 60%+ of the time versus using the line movement as a final filter and sacrificing a point or two on all the plays and occasionally losing a game that I would of won on the overnight number. Right now I see more value with the line movement filter.