70kgman NBA/NCAAB totals season long thread

[dume walker]

Another great night. Thanks, K-Man!

[70kgman]

Going to pass on the model plays today. The couple I liked are adjusted off average too many points to have much value left in them.

[Sunde91]

Good thread.

Love those NBA unders

Tonight I am considering LAL/ATL U 184, maybe Wash/Mil U 187.5.

[70kgman]

Good thread.

Love those NBA unders

Tonight I am considering LAL/ATL U 184, maybe Wash/Mil U 187.5.

I was close to playing the LAL/ATL under. My model has that game going around 176. Though 187 probably would of been the lowest number I would of considered playing it at.

[ManBearPig]

This is the only game my model picked today as I have this one around 180, but not sure I'll play. Both these teams have been low scoring as of late, especially the Lakers. They have really slowed down their pace as their D has picked up after the break. If this game is close I would worry about it going over at the end. Although I think LA should win by 8-12.

[dume walker]

I was close to playing the LAL/ATL under. My model has that game going around 176. Though 187 probably would of been the lowest number I would of considered playing it at.

Game came in at 188. Great analysis, K-Man. And great discipline.

[70kgman]

Game came in at 188. Great analysis, K-Man. And great discipline.

Statistically, an accurate total for those two teams going by season averages would be 189.8. My model just hypothetically predicts how many points off average the match-up on that specific day will go. I typically wont stray more than a 2-3 points off that average when making a wager, got to give myself a fair amount of leeway points just in case things happen to start trending back up toward "average", or to protect against a drastically off average shooting performance, or any of the unpredictable intangibles that could account for a few extra points (or vice versa) in the game along the way.

[70kgman]

3/9

1st Half: Toronto / Utah Over 103.5

Chicago / Charlotte Under 181.5

Cleveland / Milwaukee Under 187

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NBA Model: 98-64-3

[70kgman]

*2nd half wagers = 40-24

[70kgman]

Robert Morris / Long Island Over 77 2H

[Sunde91]

Harris is a POS

[70kgman]

Pace of that game is not what I expected, think the 2H goes under.

Toronto / Utah Under 103.5 2H

[70kgman]

Harris is a POS

Yup. Missed a layup with 30 seconds left, and then misses 2 of 3 free throws at the very end that could of won it.

[Sunde91]

Should have learned by now not to watch total bets. Two beats within last 20 secs

[70kgman]

2-3 overall. Model plays didn't pan out. Won both 2H plays.

Nothing tomorrow.

[dume walker]

Should we keep our eyes open for any 2H picks?

[70kgman]

I am around looking for 2H plays as these games go to halftime. Hopefully I find something I like. These 2H plays are becoming my favorite type of wagers to bet on now that I feel confident in what I am doing with them.

[ManBearPig]

Hey 70kg - Is it me or have you notice that the games seem to be higher scoring after the break? This makes modeling these extremely difficult since teams are not exactly playing to the averages and unless you can predict their pace for a given night, it's impossible. Just wondering if you had any take on this.

[70kgman]

Hey 70kg - Is it me or have you notice that the games seem to be higher scoring after the break? This makes modeling these extremely difficult since teams are not exactly playing to the averages and unless you can predict their pace for a given night, it's impossible. Just wondering if you had any take on this.

I have noticed a lot of games going over since the break. Although, from what I have seen it has had more to do with drastically above average shooting percentages than pace. Don't really have an explanation to why teams seem to be shooting much better in general all of a sudden.

Pace is actually one of the main aspects of my model, so I have to rely on teams shooting around average for them to pan out. Both the Chicago and Milwaukee unders that lost yesterday, I actually really liked the pace of both of them. In that Milwaukee/Charlotte game, you would expect the combined shooting for those two teams to be in the 43% FG / 33% 3PT range. They shot 50.6% FG / 47.8% 3PT in that game (FT shooting was above average as well). If they shot about average, that is roughly 25-30 points less in that game, and I cover the spread by double digits. It was a similar scenario in the Chicago/Charlotte game. The combined shooting was way over average in that one as well, and it only went over by 3.5 points, I still had the under covered until 14 seconds left in the game.

[70kgman]

Minnesota / Northwestern Over 72 2H

[70kgman]

St. Johns / Syracuse Over 72 2H

[ManBearPig]

That makes sense although I can't understand why all the sudden would just become better shooters. One thing to look at would be motivation I suppose. Teams looking to solidify their post season aspirations could have more focus and thus their efficiency rating would go up. They are, after all, pro and are capable of lighting it up on any given night. I'm just trying to figure out how to counteract this if you try to overcompensate to account for this, I can see it burning you the other way.

Since I'm still in the first season with my model, I think I still have a lot of data to pour through to try and find some angle's, because things that work one time don't the other....good times!!!

[70kgman]

That makes sense although I can't understand why all the sudden would just become better shooters. One thing to look at would be motivation I suppose. Teams looking to solidify their post season aspirations could have more focus and thus their efficiency rating would go up. They are, after all, pro and are capable of lighting it up on any given night. I'm just trying to figure out how to counteract this if you try to overcompensate to account for this, I can see it burning you the other way.

Since I'm still in the first season with my model, I think I still have a lot of data to pour through to try and find some angle's, because things that work one time don't the other....good times!!!

I am sure just variance. This is why I prefer having pace as an important part of my model. Pace is more consistent and predictable in my opinion. I find it is easier to predict pace than how well a team is going to shoot on a particular day.

[70kgman]

New Mexico / Colorado St. Under 73 2H

[70kgman]

NC State / Maryland Over 79.5 2H

[Not-A-Kid]

Hey 70kgman really respect your work. Sometimes I miss out on your 2H plays tho and was wondering if you are on Twitter at all to help those of us that arent around a computer?

[70kgman]

Hey 70kgman really respect your work. Sometimes I miss out on your 2H plays tho and was wondering if you are on Twitter at all to help those of us that arent around a computer?

Sorry, I don't use twitter at all.

[70kgman]

Marquette / Louisville Over 75 2H

[70kgman]

Going to call it quits today while I am still positive units. Should of quit after I went 3-0 on the early games. The last two turned into blowouts in the 2H, overs have almost no chance when that happens.

[70kgman]

3/11

Orlando / Golden State Under 207

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NBA Model: 98-67-3

[70kgman]

*2nd half wagers = 45-26

[70kgman]

Detroit / Oklahoma City Under 102.5 2H

[dume walker]

Detroit / Oklahoma City Under 102.5 2H

Nice call.

[dume walker]

Is there a record for OT bad beats? Cause I think we're closing in on it.

[Love The Action]

I've had six unders lost because of OT in the last two weeks, and tonight's game makes three this week alone. Unfreaking real...I am so pissed right now!