Horse Racing questions and answers

[BOA12]

It’s a home game for me today. Couldn’t get All the guys together. Obviously will skip the Preakness zoo but we are all trying to make the Belmont happen.

I hear you're tough at home.

My first choice was #1,

being butt stubborn researched more

and chose #6.

I'd Be Happy 1-6.

Yard bound with hounds

hope all your need want and desires are met today my friend.

[stevenash]

Beyer says Further Ado all day.

[JBEX]

Pigpen & known associates

razorback army

i'm on it.

Go J Go

he's a speed horse and there's not a lot of it in there .. the 9-5 favorite is the main one and RA breaking outside of him so nice edge positionally

[str]

In my final look, I am finding it difficult to be a worthy exercise. Narrow minded is never good when handicapping. But I find myself there. I just do not see any horse who can outperform Renegade on paper. His final 1/8th mile time is 4-5 lengths faster than everyone else. In doing that, we was running hard but not fully asked. A repeat of that should win this race all day long. So it comes down, IMO, to racing luck if everyone runs what I can see as their anticipated race. Nothing you can do about bad racing luck but you have one of the very best on him trying to avoid that.
I am concerned that the perceived 5-1, now 4-1 and with the latest scratch most likely 7-2 or 3-1, the value is declining rapidly. That does not change my mind but it does change the betting angle.
I will not bet against him. He is well ahead of these horses on paper IMO. Without trouble I feel this horse has Triple Crown ability but will need pace to achieve that. That’s the tough thing about closers.

Hope everyone enjoys the race.

[BOA12]

paige turner (army mule) finished 2nd [6-5] in allowance at churchill yesterday. .$127k oaks undercard so you know that's a tough race

active day for horses by him at major tracks including R14 at churchill 9 big jake (8-1)..oaklawn 10 and 11 .10 razorback army (20-1) and 10 master mule (5-2)

Pigpen & known associates

razorback army

i'm on it.

Go J Go

[str]

Track side or yard side 2 day ?

It’s a home game for me today. Couldn’t get All the guys together. Obviously will skip the Preakness zoo but we are all trying to make the Belmont happen.

[JBEX]

paige turner (army mule) finished 2nd [6-5] in allowance at churchill yesterday. .$127k oaks undercard so you know that's a tough race

active day for horses by him at major tracks including R14 at churchill 9 big jake (8-1)..oaklawn races 10 and 11 .. 10 razorback army (20-1) and 10 master mule (5-2)

[BOA12]

The Puma is a late scratch.

Track side or yard side 2 day ?

[str]

The Puma is a late scratch.

[JBEX]

5 deterministic (6-5) makes his 5 yo debut in the fort marcy stakes (grade 3) @ aqueduct R4 (2:28)

as most know this is a long time follow for str and me

[Jellymancan]

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

[batt33]

Haven’t had time to watch CD this week, can anyone tell me how the track has been playing? Thanks.

I haven't been paying that much attention ..sorry

[str]

Haven’t had time to watch CD this week, can anyone tell me how the track has been playing? Thanks.

With seemingly a clear forecast for today and tomorrow, the track should be exactly the way they want it to be. I have not been looking either but have to assume it will be fast and fair. Sure hope so.

[str]

So I put the race together as a best guess scenario. Nobody knows what will actually happen. And it only means something now because when the gates open, it is what it is. Which horses catch a flyer, or are left flat footed, cannot be predicted except for the last couple to load most likely would break better than then first few to load and have to wait a couple minutes to break. But again, a total guess. And because of that, I always do this for a race I am considering betting so as to identify big speed duels, solo speed, etc. But in this cavalry charge to the 1st turn, no way to predict much of anything with certainty.
As a result, I look at this pace scenario for THIS race, wanting to be comfortable with the first and 2nd quarter splits. 45 and change will most likely hand the race over to closers. 46 and change will allow more horses to have a legit shot. 47 and change will make life really tough for the 6 or 9 horses in the back early, and 48 and change would be optimal for the front 6 or 7 horses. In the Derby, it's usually 46 and change or quicker but it is still uncertain.
( Back in the 80's I think, there was an owner who ran a horse in the Derby every year just to see his colors, red and gold, be in front going into the 1st turn. And they were. But that horse was always in the back through the stretch. Some people with money are friggin CRAZY. )

For this running I do see an honest pace (hope I'm right). Forty six and change I would assume. For who I will land on, the faster the better but... that can cut both ways.

I will go through this race one more time with no prejudice tomorrow but as of now, actually the first time through, Renegade looks too me as though he is superior to this group. I cannot identify a horse that is better or, as good. Of course the trip, pace, luck, etc. will all play a huge role in who wins.
Only one other horse has finished within 5 lengths through the last 1/8th of a mile as he did in his last race and that horse was within a 1/2 length at the 1/8th pole and drew off late. That is more about the other horse backing up than it is about the winner I think. And... that was at Colonial which I have not stepped foot in for the last 26 years but it was notorious for being a speed favoring ,especially through the last 1/8th of a mile, track back then. No clue about now.

Because I have not given much attention to these races building up to tomorrow, I will listen to the talking heads I respect and see what they are saying. That will educate me some more but I doubt it would change my mind. But... maybe. You never know.

I do think if this was a 10 horse field and all things were equal, Renegade would be 6-5. I also think being the oldest horse by a decent margin to most, is very significant in the Derby. And, Irad is as good as they come.

Looking forward and trying to gauge value, if Renegade wins, I assume he would be 4-5 for the Preakness, if he runs, and the same or less in the Belmont assuming he wins in Baltimore. Not sure who or what beats him.

Now if he was 2-1 , no way I play him. No value for all that can go wrong. But when you give me 5-1 on a horse that runs 5 or more lengths faster than any horse in the race going the last 1/8th, I will play that horse.
My math tells me that if he ran in this race 6 times, he would win twice with a chance to win more than that which factors all the things that can go against him. Maybe more, but twice with all things considered. That is 3-1. I get 5-1. For me, that is worth a play.

He is the oldest horse, the fastest horse the last 1/8th by 4-5 lengths at least, has the top rider on him, and should save as much ground as the trip allows.

Hate to land on the favorite but 5-1 doesn't really feel like a favorite. And going into tomorrow, I do not see anyone better or even as good, on paper.

[BOA12]

Haven’t had time to watch CD this week, can anyone tell me how the track has been playing? Thanks.

Been playing me jelly.

.
Maybe J or $bill might have a better insight.

[Jellymancan]

Haven’t had time to watch CD this week, can anyone tell me how the track has been playing? Thanks.

[batt33]

oops

[batt33]

And THIS, is exactly how you do it. Let the horse have his best shot to win while growing. The purses mean nothing. It’s about building over the next 3-4 races and seeing where you are.
“ Training horses is about, a matter of placement “.
I can still hear John Tammaro Sr. saying that to me when I first started out. Just try and build, one race at a time.
This is excellent race management !

pretty cool interview after the race... and if Dewayne is true to his thoughts .... this could get fun!

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG2893_1777580813441/MP4/IMG2893_1777580813441.mp4

[batt33]

Just had time to do my 2nd go through with the Derby field. I still have 2 more parameters to see but let me say this as of now:

Actually , I will let AI say it:

At 40 months, a horse is generally more physically robust, better muscled, and mentally more mature than at 36 months.
Substack +3
Physical Development and Growth

• Height: By 36 months, most horses have achieved 95% of their mature height. By 40 months, they are very close to their final height, though they may still gain minor height (1-2 cm) up to 5-6 years old.
• Weight & Muscling: A 40-month-old horse typically "fills out" more, losing the high-crouped, lean appearance common in younger horses. They are gaining weight and developing better muscle density.

Food for thought folks.

We all know that racing luck plays a huge role in winning this race. No way to predict that ahead of time. So you use what you can and hope for the best.
Later today or tomorrow morning: Setting the race up like the pace predictor does so as to see what the field might look like into the 1st turn as well as into the stretch.

everytime I read your post ( okay 99%) I gain knowledge! Thanks STR for taking the time to post your insights!

[batt33]

BOL team batt.

Find some shades for your BC dash for the cash.

[batt33]

well after some time off... and then being entered and races not filling "Caldera " makes his return to the track! He has been training super well!

2026-04-24	0:49.30	14/32	PMM	4F	Dirt
2026-04-17	0:36.95	7/12	PMM	3F	Dirt
2026-04-05	0:49.70	9/15	PMM	4F	Dirt
2026-03-27	0:47.25	1/42	PMM	4F	Dirt
2026-03-20	0:48.70	9/67	PMM	4F	Dirt

From 8 days ago

Caldera Breeze Report

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/Untitled_1776459360520/MP4/Untitled_1776459360520.mp4

Caldera stretched his legs this morning at Palm Meadows through 3/8 in :36.95. He’s pretty much sitting on go at this point, so doesn’t need to do much as we wait for a race. The same race we were looking at as an extra is back in the new condition book for Apr. 30, so that will be the target for now.

Yesterday..

Caldera: Workout

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/CalderaApr242026_1777048244679/MP4/CalderaApr242026_1777048244679.mp4

Caldera worked four furlongs in :49.30 this morning at Palm Meadows. We are still waiting to see if the allowance race fills that your colt was entered in yesterday. Entries for the day were extremely light, therefore the racing office has kept entries for the Apr. 30 card open until today. We will report back once the race goes.

Ran like he has been training!
Seizing the lead from the get-go while taking a bit of pressure from second choice and eventual runner-up Skellig Michael, your grey posted legitimate splits of :23.73 and :46.10. He began to inch away from his pursuer leaving the turn, but did shift out sharply into the lane when given a left-handed reminder by pilot Nik Juarez. Caldera still had a pretty good buffer on Skellig Michael, and righted the ship quickly to kick clear and report home 6 1/4 lengths to the good in 1:37.53.

As mentioned beforehand, the plan was to get this first start back under Caldera’s belt before wading back into deeper waters. We’ll see how he exits this effort and huddle up soon with trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr.--who was quick to give much of the credit to Mr. Lukas--to pick a next target.

[BOA12]

Just had time to do my 2nd go through with the Derby field. I still have 2 more parameters to see but let me say this as of now:

Actually , I will let AI say it:

At 40 months, a horse is generally more physically robust, better muscled, and mentally more mature than at 36 months.
Substack +3
Physical Development and Growth

• Height: By 36 months, most horses have achieved 95% of their mature height. By 40 months, they are very close to their final height, though they may still gain minor height (1-2 cm) up to 5-6 years old.
• Weight & Muscling: A 40-month-old horse typically "fills out" more, losing the high-crouped, lean appearance common in younger horses. They are gaining weight and developing better muscle density.

Food for thought folks.

We all know that racing luck plays a huge role in winning this race. No way to predict that ahead of time. So you use what you can and hope for the best.
Later today or tomorrow morning: Setting the race up like the pace predictor does so as to see what the field might look like into the 1st turn as well as into the stretch.

Interesting indeed.

Renegade out of the one hole the senior citizen.

I see 5 Febu-babies.

[str]

Just had time to do my 2nd go through with the Derby field. I still have 2 more parameters to see but let me say this as of now:

Actually , I will let AI say it:

At 40 months, a horse is generally more physically robust, better muscled, and mentally more mature than at 36 months.
Substack +3
Physical Development and Growth

• Height: By 36 months, most horses have achieved 95% of their mature height. By 40 months, they are very close to their final height, though they may still gain minor height (1-2 cm) up to 5-6 years old.
• Weight & Muscling: A 40-month-old horse typically "fills out" more, losing the high-crouped, lean appearance common in younger horses. They are gaining weight and developing better muscle density.

Food for thought folks.

We all know that racing luck plays a huge role in winning this race. No way to predict that ahead of time. So you use what you can and hope for the best.
Later today or tomorrow morning: Setting the race up like the pace predictor does so as to see what the field might look like into the 1st turn as well as into the stretch.

[str]

pretty cool article about Caldera Lukas and his new trainer Joseph.
https://www.drf.com/news/caldera-car...year-old-debut

And THIS, is exactly how you do it. Let the horse have his best shot to win while growing. The purses mean nothing. It’s about building over the next 3-4 races and seeing where you are.
“ Training horses is about, a matter of placement “.
I can still hear John Tammaro Sr. saying that to me when I first started out. Just try and build, one race at a time.
This is excellent race management !

[batt33]

pretty cool article about Caldera Lukas and his new trainer Joseph.

https://www.drf.com/news/caldera-carries-lukass-legacy-4-year-old-debut

[str]

BTW, Wisconsin Girl.
I'm all in on wanting to closely follow her now for the new trainer. I'm licking my chops thinking about her from back in the day. She will feel like she has new life if things go the way they can in these situations.

[str]

I owe a few more responses to other posts but wanted to say that I went through the Derby pp’s for the first time. Today, The 20 minute first run through.
I will do that again everyday until Saturday. I read them from the rail to the outside, then outside to in, then put the pace together and lay out the field, then one more time putting it all together. Less than an hour total unless something jumps out.
Just reviewing once can’t lock me in on a play but it does give me an opinion. So far, a pretty solid one.

[JBEX]

That’s fantastic !!!

yes .. solid KY based seems mostly claiming trainer.. Troy Newton.. perfect fit and they paid $50k so they must see something .. probably a lot of overlap to the things you did .. sure you would agree seems like a good refresh and reset candidate but no way to know obviously without first hand knowledge.. will keep an eye out str

[BOA12]

Thanks guys!

BOL team batt.

Find some shades for your BC dash for the cash.

[str]

claimed out of this race

That’s fantastic !!!

[JBEX]

Poor Wisconsin girl. She had a lot of fight in her.
A truly embarrassing job managing her from the start. Very sad to see.

claimed out of this race

[batt33]

Trainer Wesley Ward sent us this great video of Bacio enjoying a post-win swim this evening at Wesley’s farm. Your colt appears to have exited his race in great order thus far.

That's a first for me!

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG2942_1777422856165/MP4/IMG2942_1777422856165.mp4

Jockey's thoughts on the race

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG6110_1777412043272/MP4/IMG6110_1777412043272.mp4

[batt33]

impressive win .. journey to the bc turf sprint underway

That’s great Batt !!!

Thanks guys!

[str]

wisconsin gal (army mule for those who don't know) entered in R4 (2:14) at churchill today..it's a good spot for her clm 50k n2L .. her two best efforts were dropping from stakes races which she's doing today .. shes #6 and ml is 7-2

out [9-2]

Poor Wisconsin girl. She had a lot of fight in her.
A truly embarrassing job managing her from the start. Very sad to see.

[str]

Winner! half second off the track record... galloped out nicely!

That’s great Batt !!!