Horse Racing questions and answers

[batt33]

Thanks Batt.
For whatever reason I can’t get the video to load.

see if this one works
https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...1650427715.mp4

[JBEX]

did saturday army mule's ..post 10927

[str]

Okay here ya go!

Black Tie Optional Workout Report

Black Tie Optional breezed four furlongs in :48.80 this morning at Los Alamitos. Your son of Not This Time worked on the outside of his usual workmate, Cherokee Nation. While Black Tie Optional was slightly second best coming past the camera, he did respond when asked in the late stages and actually galloped out in front of his mate, as you will see in the video above. The fractions of this breeze were 12.20, 24.60, 48.80 and he galloped out in 1:02.60. He is continuing to make steady progress.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...715.mp4

Thanks Batt.
For whatever reason I can’t get the video to load.

[batt33]

Here is another one ....
Misstrial Workout Report



As expected, Misstrial breezed a half mile in :48.60 while on the outside of her stablemate Nezha. Your daughter of Constitution worked very well yet again, doing it all on her own. We had the fractions of this work in 12.80, 24.20, 48.60 and the duo galloped out in 1:02.20. Assistant trainer Mark Marlow remains very high on Misstrial.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/MyMovie31_1751650739709/MP4/MyMovie31_1751650739709.mp4

[batt33]

Hey Batt,

It’s hard to put in to words but our boy has a chance to be special. The little things I see are jumping through the screen.
Please keep me posted.

Oh my !

Okay here ya go!

Black Tie Optional Workout Report

Black Tie Optional breezed four furlongs in :48.80 this morning at Los Alamitos. Your son of Not This Time worked on the outside of his usual workmate, Cherokee Nation. While Black Tie Optional was slightly second best coming past the camera, he did respond when asked in the late stages and actually galloped out in front of his mate, as you will see in the video above. The fractions of this breeze were 12.20, 24.60, 48.80 and he galloped out in 1:02.60. He is continuing to make steady progress.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/MyMovie32_1751650427715/MP4/MyMovie32_1751650427715.mp4

[batt33]

Want to give a big heads up to anyone that bets horse racing.
That new bill passed by Congress will make winning money at the races much more difficult unless you avoid the bets affected.
it is my advice to never bet any multi horse or multi race exotics bet again. Ever !
I strongly recommend betting to win, and if you must, place or show, ( I don’t personally do that ever),or exactas. I would avoid all other plays unless you are sure they will not payoff at 300-1 or more.

What was a difficult bet before will now be far more difficult to come out ahead in.
Please remember, the more they advertise a particular wager, the less chance you have of ever being + EV in It. That is because the takeout is outrageous and now will be even worse still.

Hope that makes sense to everyone.

Please folks, think about this.

Thanks STR! puts a damper on having fun.....

[Jellymancan]

That bill destroyed gambling. I don't see any other way around it.

[JBEX]

Apparently. Have not read it but that is what I am told. Losing tickets will not offset it apparently.
Double check but it sounds like a real slap in the players face.

bad enough it was that way for so long but to go back to it again after it was righted is ridiculous..totally unfair

[str]

so it's back to not taking into account how much you invested on a 300-1 exotic and just that it paid over that amount ?

Apparently. Have not read it but that is what I am told. Losing tickets will not offset it apparently.
Double check but it sounds like a real slap in the players face.

[JBEX]

Want to give a big heads up to anyone that bets horse racing.
That new bill passed by Congress will make winning money at the races much more difficult unless you avoid the bets affected.
it is my advice to never bet any multi horse or multi race exotics bet again. Ever !
I strongly recommend betting to win, and if you must, place or show, ( I don’t personally do that ever),or exactas. I would avoid all other plays unless you are sure they will not payoff at 300-1 or more.

What was a difficult bet before will now be far more difficult to come out ahead in.
Please remember, the more they advertise a particular wager, the less chance you have of ever being + EV in It. That is because the takeout is outrageous and now will be even worse still.

Hope that makes sense to everyone.

Please folks, think about this.

so it's back to not taking into account how much you invested on a 300-1 exotic and just that it paid over that amount ?

[str]

Want to give a big heads up to anyone that bets horse racing.
That new bill passed by Congress will make winning money at the races much more difficult unless you avoid the bets affected.
it is my advice to never bet any multi horse or multi race exotics bet again. Ever !
I strongly recommend betting to win, and if you must, place or show, ( I don’t personally do that ever),or exactas. I would avoid all other plays unless you are sure they will not payoff at 300-1 or more.

What was a difficult bet before will now be far more difficult to come out ahead in.
Please remember, the more they advertise a particular wager, the less chance you have of ever being + EV in It. That is because the takeout is outrageous and now will be even worse still.

Hope that makes sense to everyone.

Please folks, think about this.

[str]

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...1582586299.mp4


Black Tie Optional Update



We checked in on Black Tie Optional this morning during an owner barn visit at Los Alamitos. Your son of Not This Time looks tremendous in the flesh, and has made a lot of progress physically since shipping into the Baffert barn. He still has plenty of growing and maturing to do, which is no surprise, but we were very pleased with how he looks. He is on schedule to return to the work tab tomorrow and we will follow up after his breeze.

Hey Batt,

It’s hard to put in to words but our boy has a chance to be special. The little things I see are jumping through the screen.
Please keep me posted.

Oh my !

[batt33]

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG6553_1751582586299/MP4/IMG6553_1751582586299.mp4

Black Tie Optional Update



We checked in on Black Tie Optional this morning during an owner barn visit at Los Alamitos. Your son of Not This Time looks tremendous in the flesh, and has made a lot of progress physically since shipping into the Baffert barn. He still has plenty of growing and maturing to do, which is no surprise, but we were very pleased with how he looks. He is on schedule to return to the work tab tomorrow and we will follow up after his breeze.

[batt33]

moving on here ya go STR

[batt33]

no problem batt .. good to see you checking in

thanks!

[batt33]

Hope she does well Batt.
GL

well dissapointing.... but not unexpected ..... never ran a lick.....
Sweet Voyage turned in quite the head scratcher this afternoon at Presque Isle Downs. She was NOT claimed.

Dropping to the back of the pack early, she was asked for more turning for home, but had lots of work left to do. Jockey Willie Martinez opted to attempt to split horses rather than swing wide, and she just didn’t quicken while never finding a truly clear path. She also struggled with her leads, but that’s normal for her.

We certainly expected a much better run today. We’ll let trainer Jeff Hiles get her home and go over her to rule out any physical issues, but it may have just come down to tactics and trip. Jeff did also note that she might not have liked the humid weather today.

[JBEX]

str said it'd be ok to put up notifications .. only 1 going tomorrow covering all 3 tracks and that was posted a few hours ago ..post 10927

[str]

Hope she does well Batt.
GL

[JBEX]

Wow much appreciated!

no problem batt .. good to see you checking in

[batt33]

I have been busy... and now fire season..... ugh.....
I have a horse running today race 6 number 1 (sweet voyage...)

Jeff reports that Sweet Voyage has continued to train well out of what was a demanding effort over the dirt last time out. She worked well yesterday, in preparation for this race, posting a three-furlong bullet yesterday at HighPointe in :37.65 (1/5), which can be seen in the video above. She should find this field a touch friendlier than the competition which she has faced as of late, and will get back over a synthetic surface on which she sports her lone career win. There are a few horses in here that match up with her in the figure department, so it will not be an easy race per se, but with another step forward we are hopeful that she can compete for a win in this race.




More on the competition:

#2 Quill Pen: Comes into this race second off the layoff after being defeated by more than 25 lengths in an off-turf starter allowance event at Delaware. Will need to improve off what is a career-best Beyer of 56 to compete for top placing in this group.

#3 Wonder Wave: Broke her maiden at the $20K level at Lone Star Park last time out. Will switch into a new barn here, which sports a 26% win rate with horses going out for them for the first time. Another in here who will need a step forward, especially as she will face winners for the first time in here, but she seems to be in decent form.

#4 Nelida: Was third in a five-horse field at this level last time out. Best efforts have come against lesser competition, but her career-high Beyer is 67. If replicated, can put her in contention.

#5 Claramente: Was an easy winner last time out over this track for maiden $15K, earning a career-best 68 Beyer. She got loose and brave on the lead in that event. Not so sure she gets the same race shape in here as the horse drawn outside of them all will likely press her, but has to be respected off that recent figure.

#6 Peaches Point: Was the beaten favorite at this level last time out in a race that lacked pace, which certainly put her up against it being that she is a closer. Will have to improve off her best figures to compete in here.

#7 Cocktail Kisses: Will be forced to go from this outside draw and will play a significant role in how this race shape will play out. Has the class and figures to be labeled a contender in here.

[batt33]

starting beginning of the saratoga meet (officially next week but having some kind of racing festival that goes july 3rd-6th) i will be posting entries and results with final odds (if in the money) for army mule progeny at 5 (mostly) summer meets ..sar and ellis will be done by end of august ..dmr , mth and colonial by mid sept .. was considering delaware but it ends mid october and figured I'd give myself a break from doing a 6th track.. will not be looking for them at smaller tracks during this period

saratoga (thursday)
del mar (july 18)
monmouth (started)
ellis (thursday)
colonial (july 9)

1 weekly post and I will add entries to it throughout the week..new page and I will forward it .. no notifications when a new day's entries are put up or results are posted ..will try mostly to get the days entries up before noon or sometimes night before .. if not the same day results will be up by the following day and on occasion may do it in bunches a few days later .. see how it goes

Wow much appreciated!

[JBEX]

week 1 .. 7/3 -7/6
opening day sar to last day dmr (mid sept)
army mule progeny at ...

saratoga/del mar/monmouth/ellis/colonial
(del mar and colonial haven't begun yet)

everything for this week will be in this post
will be a notification when I post


7/3 thursday

nothing


7/4 friday (done)

saratoga 3 @ 2:14
#4 shadow dragon (4-1)

out @ 7-1


7/5 saturday (done)

monmouth 6 @ 3:24
#2 molly's a bullet (8-1) 4yo
#6 bel pensiero (4-1) 5yo

full siblings !


half field was scratched including little sis and it wasn't off the turf..don't get it

3rd (4 horses) @ 4-1 ..well beaten
.

horseshoe 11 @ 5:55
drf Indiana oaks .. grade 3
#4 top (5-1)

if i find or know of one's scheduled to run in stakes outside of the 5 tracks I'll post it

los alamitos 8 @ 7:54
#4 barbara t (20-1)
grade 2 stakes


.
forwarded

[JBEX]

Wow. That’s a lot of work JBEX. Really appreciate it.

no problem str

it's really not that bad limiting it to 5 tracks and thought it'd be nice to do it coinciding with saratoga and del mar .. mth always decent and ellis park and colonial downs product has improved a bunch in recent years ..be interesting to keep tabs on them for a couple of months

[str]

starting beginning of the saratoga meet (officially next week but having some kind of racing festival that goes july 3rd-6th) i will be posting entries and results with final odds (if in the money) for army mule progeny at 5 (mostly) summer meets ..sar and ellis will be done by end of august ..dmr , mth and colonial by mid sept .. was considering delaware but it ends mid october and figured I'd give myself a break from doing a 6th track.. will not be looking for them at smaller tracks during this period

saratoga (thursday)
del mar (july 18)
monmouth (started)
ellis (thursday)
colonial (july 9)

1 weekly post and I will add entries to it throughout the week..new page and I will forward it .. no notifications when a new day's entries are put up or results are posted ..will try mostly to get the days entries up before noon or sometimes night before .. if not the same day results will be up by the following day and on occasion may do it in bunches a few days later .. see how it goes

Wow. That’s a lot of work JBEX. Really appreciate it.

[JBEX]

starting beginning of the saratoga meet (officially next week but having some kind of racing festival that goes july 3rd-6th) i will be posting entries and results with final odds (if in the money) for army mule progeny at 5 (mostly) summer meets ..sar and ellis will be done by end of august ..dmr , mth and colonial by mid sept .. was considering delaware but it ends mid october and figured I'd give myself a break from doing a 6th track.. will not be looking for them at smaller tracks during this period

saratoga (thursday)
del mar (july 18)
monmouth (started)
ellis (thursday)
colonial (july 9)

1 weekly post and I will add entries to it throughout the week..new page and I will forward it .. no notifications when a new day's entries are put up or results are posted ..will try mostly to get the days entries up before noon or sometimes night before .. if not the same day results will be up by the following day and on occasion may do it in bunches a few days later .. see how it goes

[JBEX]

26 months old and runs that professionally?

Two turns, turf, the crowd and announcer noise, the camera flashes... It's incredible.

absolutely.. maybe we'll see him final week at saratoga when the lone 2 turn turf stakes for 2yo's goes ..be an interesting follow the rest of the year

[str]

wasn't thinking about the foaling month which as you said adds more to it.. was bet very well also for a big venue track and I've noticed over at least the last few months that they seem to be in general..have heard at least 3 mentions on televised media this year that they like army mule as a sire including joe bravo last week on the fox show ..I'd say it's definitely not a secret anymore although to the general betting public (and that's not unimportant) it probably still is to a degree

26 months old and runs that professionally?

Two turns, turf, the crowd and announcer noise, the camera flashes... It's incredible.

[JBEX]

I sure did !!

And I don't care about the time. Probably hard as a rock.

But from the mental side of things...A monster effort. An April foal, in June, two turns and turf for it's 1st start and runs like a seasoned 5 year old. Easy win, extremely professional, and never set down all the way. Unbelievable JBEX.
The horse that finished 2nd ran extremely well. This one though, It's hard to put that into words. That was ridiculous.

wasn't thinking about the foaling month which as you said adds more to it.. was bet very well also for a big venue track and I've noticed over at least the last few months that they seem to be in general..have heard at least 3 mentions on televised media this year that they like army mule as a sire including joe bravo last week on the fox show ..I'd say it's definitely not a secret anymore although to the general betting public (and that's not unimportant) it probably still is to a degree

[str]

hey str

did you happen to catch the gulfstream race ? what a professional race for a 2 year old going 2 turns on the grass first time out in june ! time was 2 seconds of the track record so it must've been extremely hard surface..have to think he might turn into something good down the road

I sure did !!

And I don't care about the time. Probably hard as a rock.

But from the mental side of things...A monster effort. An April foal, in June, two turns and turf for it's 1st start and runs like a seasoned 5 year old. Easy win, extremely professional, and never set down all the way. Unbelievable JBEX.
The horse that finished 2nd ran extremely well. This one though, It's hard to put that into words. That was ridiculous.

[JBEX]

hey str

did you happen to catch the gulfstream race ? what a professional race for a 2 year old going 2 turns on the grass first time out in june ! time was 2 seconds of the track record so it must've been extremely hard surface..have to think he might turn into something good down the road

[str]

Looked at all 3 horses.

This one kind of jumps off the page.

I would have to consider this one a lot.

Just love the box here. Last one in, first one out? Good chance for that.

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut[/QUOTE]

I have not seen the replay yet. This horse finished 2nd. The winner, another first time starter was obviously the better horse. The chart does show that this Army Mule broke on top and ran great , simply losing to a better horse.
The takeaway though is, there was about a 70% +/- chance that this AM was going to load last and break 1st with the box ( outside post with a good run to the turn), in this spot. That is exactly what happened according to the charts. I will watch the replay, but here is the takeaway from that.

We knew there was an above average chance that this AM would load last and break first. That DID happen. Was that an edge most people did not know? Yes. So while this horse was 2nd best, we had an edge. That folks, is all you can ask for in a game of chance that betting horses is. This was a solid play.
Limit your plays to having an edge and you will be plus in the end most likely. It takes discipline, understanding situations, and the will to not play just to play.
OK, want to play to have action, fine, maybe a very reduced amount, but keep the edge plays consistently higher. Keep score. This can and will work.

[JBEX]

lone star unless you have RTN best you can do is a replay the following day..no tvg

[JBEX]

double l's army is #9..forgot in intial post

[Easy-Rider 66]

Well, yeah, too bad.

But, from the handicappers mental state, it has to feel good that you analyzed that race, identified the speed, the pace was slowed as best she could, and your horse ran great at 13-1 . Very well done EZ !

Confidence is as important as execution .

Gauge your ability now vs. a few years ago. Understand what you see now that you did not see then.

That tough beat should propel you forward. You can't win them all, but finding gems like that take more than luck.

Keep up the great work.

THX for the good words sir.

[JBEX]

I cannot think of another stallion where I see the offspring and instead of handicapping the race to see if it can win, I look through the race to see if it can lose. I've never seen anything like that before. OK, maybe Hoist The Flag way back in the day.

I had an extremely sentimental connection with him .

i remember going back to the 80's or 90's (former early for me with capping ) that hoist the flag was considered a top broodmare sire..one of the only one's I recognized for that outside of buckpasser

Looked at all 3 horses.

This one kind of jumps off the page.

I would have to consider this one a lot.

Just love the box here. Last one in, first one out? Good chance for that.

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut

good to see the 2yo's starting to show up and started off with a bang with pinky finger who looks like he might become something special ..at lone star a sire like army mule Is definitely above avg for that level of track..the two veterans at mth and baq definitely have a decent shot imo