Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

presque isle 6
#6 calvary cat (8-1)

Just another day at the office for Army Mule.

Horse in the 7th wins

Horse in the 6th finishes 2nd at 6-1

The favorite in the race won and the exacta was 50.00. INCREDIBLE !

This is the closest thing to a sure thing as you will ever get.

Army Mules show up every single time.

[str]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

By then that roan was all out and I do think the inside horse was out of gears and just running as best as it could. The problem was letting that roan horse get a jump on him in the first place. You have to keep that right eye clear and the outside horse took that away and the inside horse had no gear to gain it back.
Kind of a confusing ride IMO. I think that jockey would love anther chance to do things better.

[JBEX]

Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?

A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.

That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.

A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.

As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.

And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.

this is the jockey's 3rd full year ,low teens win % and over 1k mounts ..not really familiar with the colony but know a few names, main one being patrick husband's .. race was fairly deep with jock talent by the numbers

trainer josie carroll at it for a long time and I believe one of the best at that track so making the right adjustments likely


saw the running line and imo it's very similiar to the one he ran off the long layoff last year..didn't run bad in the following race considering the slow start and crawling pace

put all this together and as you said a good one to keep tabs on and I will

appreciate the feedback as always str

[str]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?

A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.

That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.

A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.

As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.

And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.

[JBEX]

added another



.

[JBEX]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

2nd off layoff (considering debut) , stretching out 1.5f .. both again

but an awful long breather prior to her last race and to lay off mid year off 3 straight wins there must've been a serious issue



.

[JBEX]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

presque isle 6
#6 calvary cat (8-1)

[JBEX]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

might have had just as much to do with the roan drifting out as the 7

[JBEX]

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

I think the alfred vanderbilt (grade 2) on 7/19 at the spa is the next logical spot for him..went from churchill to saratoga last year and won the amsterdam stakes for 3yo only (grade 2)

[JBEX]

Another side note to a side note. Lol.

Reason I said that , back in the day, when I was learning prior to being a trainer, I would watch the best trainers as to how they approached situations with their horses as 2nd time out in a life or first off time. . Now remember, these were STAR horses, not just maidens that won their first start . So I remember watching Ruffian. Yeah, the best female I ever saw . And while she did run in a stake after breaking her maiden, and of course, she won like she did every race she ever finished, when she ran back in her first race as a 3 year old, after winning all 5 races as a 2 year old, 4 of which were stakes, and her first race in about 6 months+/- she ran in an allowance race.
It was a prep to go on and win as a 3 yr. old. Won easily and the rest is history. You just don't see that anymore. I'm not sure why but you don't. That was all you saw with the good ones way back when. Times change I guess.

my guess would be the conditions for that type of alw race would attract a stakes quality field as it would have to be an appealing spot to start off a yearly campaign for that caliber of horse ..pretty sure,but not certain, they have done that in the not so distant past but possibly goes back a decade or two

[str]

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

Another side note to a side note. Lol.

Reason I said that , back in the day, when I was learning prior to being a trainer, I would watch the best trainers as to how they approached situations with their horses as 2nd time out in a life or first off time. . Now remember, these were STAR horses, not just maidens that won their first start . So I remember watching Ruffian. Yeah, the best female I ever saw . And while she did run in a stake after breaking her maiden, and of course, she won like she did every race she ever finished, when she ran back in her first race as a 3 year old, after winning all 5 races as a 2 year old, 4 of which were stakes, and her first race in about 6 months+/- she ran in an allowance race.
It was a prep to go on and win as a 3 yr. old. Won easily and the rest is history. You just don't see that anymore. I'm not sure why but you don't. That was all you saw with the good ones way back when. Times change I guess.

[str]

army mule ..sunday

woodbine 8 @ 4:45
#4 a little frisky (5-2)


woodbine 9
#11 midnight mascot (10-1)

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

[JBEX]

army mule ..sunday

woodbine 8 @ 4:45
#4 a little frisky (5-2)


woodbine 9
#11 midnight mascot (10-1)

[JBEX]

any feelings on the two above horses str; if you had a chance to look

stanley house

consistent efforts middle distance on artificial but usually its for 2nd or 3rd..wouldn't shock me at what will probably be overlay odds


world record

nice that he's finally drawn a far outside post and might be important with monster "skelly"
just inside of him ..I think he's got a decent shot to outhustle him for the lead which would put skelly at a big disadvantage..if posts were reversed wouldn't like his chances as much

of course not today..that comment included class level which I should have mentioned ..not talking 3 or 4 efforts but about last 7 prior to today

[JBEX]

Sure. Make the other riders abort any notion of relax from the beginning and hopefully it shows up at the 1/8th pole when they fade a bit and mine is coming on.
CJ was a star doing that when he had the bug.
an incredible edge sometimes.

All the little things JBEX. So lucky to learn from Dickie.
And Chris.

yes little things like that turn 2nds or worse into wins .. you had excellent teachers in those you mentioned

[str]

not sure if it's a good analogy but similiar to a pitcher throwing a change-up

Sure. Make the other riders abort any notion of relax from the beginning and hopefully it shows up at the 1/8th pole when they fade a bit and mine is coming on.
CJ was a star doing that when he had the bug.
an incredible edge sometimes.

All the little things JBEX. So lucky to learn from Dickie.
And Chris.

[JBEX]

That was the trick Dick Dutrow taught me about always saying to the rider to “ride away hard” but with your arms flailing not actually doing it. The rider either side that saw that with a speed horse would always overreact a stride or two out of the gate and over use their speed mounts. Lol.
it was always the first thing I said when giving instructions.
Thanks Dickie!

not sure if it's a good analogy but similiar to a pitcher throwing a change-up

[str]

That was the trick Dick Dutrow taught me about always saying to the rider to “ride away hard” but with your arms flailing not actually doing it. The rider either side that saw that with a speed horse would always overreact a stride or two out of the gate and over use their speed mounts. Lol.
it was always the first thing I said when giving instructions.
Thanks Dickie!

I have to learn how to post pictures again. Still have a set of programs from the meeting I won at Bowie in 79.
All the instructions I wrote on my program for every horse I ran starts with “ ride away”.
Even the closers. It was just elbows flailing around. Not actually pushing unless we wanted the lead. The hands stayed still on the reigns.

[str]

that's how it happened imo

That was the trick Dick Dutrow taught me about always saying to the rider to “ride away hard” but with your arms flailing not actually doing it. The rider either side that saw that with a speed horse would always overreact a stride or two out of the gate and over use their speed mounts. Lol.
it was always the first thing I said when giving instructions.
Thanks Dickie!

[JBEX]

Skelly maybe races 3-5 back was very poor from the gate and compromised in the rush to get lead. Not sure if that's been resolved?

I wouldn't say poor form..tough to break from the 11 post in the bc sprint ..other than that ,wins or close 2nd every time including the race in saudi arabia

sorry madison..I read it as "poor form" rather than poor from

[JBEX]

I would consider acting like I’m riding to make the r lead with WR and make Skelly burn early. Let him work to clear, go 21 and change , then stalk and get in his right eye at the top of the stretch.
easier said than done but at least you avoid a harsh duel.
of course everything is the break is everything so the rider needs to have more than one thought in his head.

that's how it happened imo

[str]

guess i should have mentioned skelly finished far back from the duel and a 33-1 won the race coming from off the pace

I assumed that. Kind of my point about crazy fractions early when you find that kind of setup. If you cherry pick those races you are going to find big pricing with closers .
same in the other direction with a pace less race or solo speed. Searching for those and finding them is awesome.
It would be a must try for me. You need patience but a few nice payouts will fix any doubts that it is not possible. It has to be I would think.

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

guess i should have mentioned skelly finished far back from the duel and a 33-1 won the race coming from off the pace

[str]

Lost track of time. Did not know it had just run.

[str]

#1 is out ..now it'll be a fistfight ..18 mtp

skelly .. even
WR .. 8-5

I would consider acting like I’m riding to make the r lead with WR and make Skelly burn early. Let him work to clear, go 21 and change , then stalk and get in his right eye at the top of the stretch.
easier said than done but at least you avoid a harsh duel.
of course everything is the break is everything so the rider needs to have more than one thought in his head.

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

[JBEX]

I know I said in my write-up above that I could see WR possibly making the lead but your scenario of #1 keeping SK honest certainly could happen..I think Prat will entertain the possibility of getting the lead with WR but adjust and stalk if he can't

#1 is out ..now it'll be a fistfight ..18 mtp

skelly .. even
WR .. 8-5

[JBEX]

He a nice one for sure but when I looked earlier, there was a solid early horse inside of him and I would be betting on a very heated duel to the 1/4 pole and World Record having a chance to run by them through the stretch.
Obviously if Skelly gallops around easily early, it will be a tall order to run him down but this race can set up for him and the inside speed to go crazy early which is basically what we are betting on.
Being partial to World Record makes the call easier for me.
But… something I want to mention to everyone. When you can surf through all these different races, you can cherry pick pace situations that create a big and in some cases almost unfair advantage for yourself.

if I was doing this daily I have to think that I would be setting up each race and gravitating towards the ones that had solo speed or a heck of a multi horse duel likely to happen.
Doing that will increase your overall advantage quite a bit. Seems like the first thing I would want to try.

Hope that helps..

I know I said in my write-up above that I could see WR possibly making the lead but your scenario of #1 keeping SK honest certainly could happen..I think Prat will entertain the possibility of getting the lead with WR but adjust and stalk if he can't

[JBEX]

Skelly maybe races 3-5 back was very poor from the gate and compromised in the rush to get lead. Not sure if that's been resolved?

I wouldn't say poor form..tough to break from the 11 post in the bc sprint ..other than that ,wins or close 2nd every time including the race in saudi arabia

[str]

Note vs Skelly, one if not the premier sprinters of the last 2 years.

He a nice one for sure but when I looked earlier, there was a solid early horse inside of him and I would be betting on a very heated duel to the 1/4 pole and World Record having a chance to run by them through the stretch.
Obviously if Skelly gallops around easily early, it will be a tall order to run him down but this race can set up for him and the inside speed to go crazy early which is basically what we are betting on.
Being partial to World Record makes the call easier for me.
But… something I want to mention to everyone. When you can surf through all these different races, you can cherry pick pace situations that create a big and in some cases almost unfair advantage for yourself.

if I was doing this daily I have to think that I would be setting up each race and gravitating towards the ones that had solo speed or a heck of a multi horse duel likely to happen.
Doing that will increase your overall advantage quite a bit. Seems like the first thing I would want to try.

Hope that helps..

[str]

constitution

Thanks EZ. Great to see you in here.was getting ready to send a wellness check to you.

This race is kind of frustrating to get a handle on. It looks to me that the two best speed horses are both Cassie’s horses. I cannot imagine he would allow those two to hook up and duel so the pace set up is a bit muddy in my opinion.
With a hot pace , that opens it up for several of these to run late, but why would there be a hot pace? Casse certainly does not want that. So it is hard for me without knowing how the race might set up to say that I like the army mule horse in here. Under certain situations there would be a chance that I could. But not the kind of race that I want to confidently say that I’d like anyone because truth be told, in set ups like this, My lean always has to go towards the speed if I think it is going to be solo and , or walk the dog scenario, meaning a slow early pace therefore helping the speed and hurting the closers chances.
Hope that makes sense.

[Madison]

any feelings on the two above horses str; if you had a chance to look

stanley house

consistent efforts middle distance on artificial but usually its for 2nd or 3rd..wouldn't shock me at what will probably be overlay odds


world record

nice that he's finally drawn a far outside post and might be important with monster "skelly"
just inside of him ..I think he's got a decent shot to outhustle him for the lead which would put skelly at a big disadvantage..if posts were reversed wouldn't like his chances as much

Skelly maybe races 3-5 back was very poor from the gate and compromised in the rush to get lead. Not sure if that's been resolved?

[Madison]

army mule..saturday

woodbine 9 @ 5:17
#6 stanley house (12-1)


_________________



one of our follow from the beginning horses like deterministic (neither by army mule)

world record (3-1)
cd 6 @ 3:18

Note vs Skelly, one if not the premier sprinters of the last 2 years.

[Easy-Rider 66]

With the inside and outside speeds, this could easily set up well for World Record. Makes sense too me.

Depending on the price, absolutely.

I'm struggling to find the pp's for Stanley House. Web... I can't find. Help if you can.

constitution