Horse Racing questions and answers

[Snowball]

You're the wildest poster though

never wreckless snow.

U talk the talk

walk the walk.

thanks BOA. And Nash. I just found out I also had Golden Tempo amongst my 4 futures picks. More Boom.
They were Paladin, Brandt, Dr Kapur and Golden Tempo.

[stevenash]

You're the wildest poster though

never wreckless snow.

U talk the talk

walk the walk.

[BOA12]

sorry for quoting myself but I feel good today. Watched it later on DVR. And the youtube stuff.
Race played out like I thought it would on the most serious bet which was Golden Tempo.
Good thing I put i some Ocelli on the Show also. But I wish two things...
1) I went even deeper on 19.
2) I put Remegade with the 19 (instead I put 6 others)

Will check my balance Monday as I get the +25% boost from BetAmerica/TwinSpires bonus they were running. Although that caps off at $50. Basically one every week they run now. Only on Win,Exacta,Tri,Super.
The biggest factor in this Derby was lack of experience especially at the 10 furlongs.
Also some bumping affected the Middle which helped Ocelli (he bumped Commandment who bumped Chief Wallabee)
But Golden Tempo was going past them in the final furlong anyway. Congrats to Jose and Cheri.
Congrats also to Renegade and Ocelli. Renegade is a beast at long distance and a closer fully established now. Ocelli is out of the weeds. Notes: Don't be lazy with your own work and opinions, what does that mean? It means watching Youtube videos and reading and podcasts in the biggest races GETS OUT OF HAND. Too many opinions and you might not think they affect you but they linger in your actions, like making me distribute to the main others too much. ALthough there were a few who picked the winner -- Emily Gullickson, Vosburgh Report, Nate Shepherd. Esp. Emily who made 19 her only pick. I had already settled on 19 without them but I still enjoy seeing what others say... it's a double-edged sword, though... and also I don't know how much to takeaway on the Rail at the Derby because Renegade's massive comeback was a lot more about him than about fading the Rail going wrong. It didn't go wrong at all, it was just that Renegade and Irad were beasts. Also Danon Bourbon impressive. Six Speed at 1m or less. On to the next day and thanks for letting me intrude into your thread again.

You're the wildest poster though

never wreckless snow.

U talk the talk

walk the walk.

[Snowball]

combination of serious and lotto plays
strongest opinion is the 19.

r11
db 6/18
db 7,10/6,12,19
db 10/6,7,12,18,19

r12
wn 15
pl 19
sh 19,22

sorry for quoting myself but I feel good today. Watched it later on DVR. And the youtube stuff.
Race played out like I thought it would on the most serious bet which was Golden Tempo.
Good thing I put i some Ocelli on the Show also. But I wish two things...
1) I went even deeper on 19.
2) I put Remegade with the 19 (instead I put 6 others)

Will check my balance Monday as I get the +25% boost from BetAmerica/TwinSpires bonus they were running. Although that caps off at $50. Basically one every week they run now. Only on Win,Exacta,Tri,Super.
The biggest factor in this Derby was lack of experience especially at the 10 furlongs.
Also some bumping affected the Middle which helped Ocelli (he bumped Commandment who bumped Chief Wallabee)
But Golden Tempo was going past them in the final furlong anyway. Congrats to Jose and Cheri.
Congrats also to Renegade and Ocelli. Renegade is a beast at long distance and a closer fully established now. Ocelli is out of the weeds. Notes: Don't be lazy with your own work and opinions, what does that mean? It means watching Youtube videos and reading and podcasts in the biggest races GETS OUT OF HAND. Too many opinions and you might not think they affect you but they linger in your actions, like making me distribute to the main others too much. ALthough there were a few who picked the winner -- Emily Gullickson, Vosburgh Report, Nate Shepherd. Esp. Emily who made 19 her only pick. I had already settled on 19 without them but I still enjoy seeing what others say... it's a double-edged sword, though... and also I don't know how much to takeaway on the Rail at the Derby because Renegade's massive comeback was a lot more about him than about fading the Rail going wrong. It didn't go wrong at all, it was just that Renegade and Irad were beasts. Also Danon Bourbon impressive. Six Speed at 1m or less. On to the next day and thanks for letting me intrude into your thread again.

[BOA12]

I can still close my eyes and smell that morning air. The closest to thing to heaven I suppose.

Paradise on Earth

Sunrise and a cup of coffee

watching talent and pure athletes

doing what they love.

[JBEX]

Chucky,

Back when I was 9-10 years old , we played in 2 yr. Increments for most sports . Every time we move up, especially early on, the difference in speed and strength was significant. At 9 you hung in there. At 10, you dominated. That held true for all 3 sports through high school.
With this race in early May, these horses are not yet fully mature. Just like us, some are clumsy, awkward, etc. Not all but probably most. All have high end talent or they would not be there.
I have not broken down the betting angle of the Derby based on age because it stopped being about betting for me when I was 19 years old.
But the reality of this and in living it, so as to fully understand it, demands a review of this angle for any serious player.
Maybe it’s a one off, but what if it’s not ?
My question is, with Andy’s, as well as others vast handicapping depth of knowledge, why isn’t this discussed. I mean, if a stupid ex horse trainer that left because illegal drugs we’re running rampant can understand this, why can’t the sharpest handicapping minds on the planet discuss this?

Hahaha. Don’t think I’ve mentioned that stuff much but when something (arrogance) gets thrown in your face and those chosen few want to try and talk down to you, I don’t forget that.
Oh, has Andy’s pick finished yet ?

I like this analogy applied to the foaling date of derby runners.. maybe around mid march is a good cutoff point with the preference of course being jan or feb.. guess there aren't nearly as many of the former .. when there starts to be at least a 1.5 month (my #) difference that often can indicate a significant amount of extra development for the elder

[BOA12]

Chucky,

Back when I was 9-10 years old , we played in 2 yr. Increments for most sports . Every time we move up, especially early on, the difference in speed and strength was significant. At 9 you hung in there. At 10, you dominated. That held true for all 3 sports through high school.
With this race in early May, these horses are not yet fully mature. Just like us, some are clumsy, awkward, etc. Not all but probably most. All have high end talent or they would not be there.
I have not broken down the betting angle of the Derby based on age because it stopped being about betting for me when I was 19 years old.
But the reality of this and in living it, so as to fully understand it, demands a review of this angle for any serious player.
Maybe it’s a one off, but what if it’s not ?
My question is, with Andy’s, as well as others vast handicapping depth of knowledge, why isn’t this discussed. I mean, if a stupid ex horse trainer that left because illegal drugs we’re running rampant can understand this, why can’t the sharpest handicapping minds on the planet discuss this?

Hahaha. Don’t think I’ve mentioned that stuff much but when something (arrogance) gets thrown in your face and those chosen few want to try and talk down to you, I don’t forget that.
Oh, has Andy’s pick finished yet ?

I still use speed rating/variant

over andy's figures for my # ratings.

Still running- vindicates you over one who irritates.

[str]

I think about all the time you guys put in with the horses at the crack of dawn.

Props to the winner at long-shot odds. Trifecta paid a handsome 5-figure amount. I have dreamt of getting a piece of the Derby long-shot exotic.

I can still close my eyes and smell that morning air. The closest to thing to heaven I suppose.

[str]

Chucky,

Back when I was 9-10 years old , we played in 2 yr. Increments for most sports . Every time we move up, especially early on, the difference in speed and strength was significant. At 9 you hung in there. At 10, you dominated. That held true for all 3 sports through high school.
With this race in early May, these horses are not yet fully mature. Just like us, some are clumsy, awkward, etc. Not all but probably most. All have high end talent or they would not be there.
I have not broken down the betting angle of the Derby based on age because it stopped being about betting for me when I was 19 years old.
But the reality of this and in living it, so as to fully understand it, demands a review of this angle for any serious player.
Maybe it’s a one off, but what if it’s not ?
My question is, with Andy’s, as well as others vast handicapping depth of knowledge, why isn’t this discussed. I mean, if a stupid ex horse trainer that left because illegal drugs we’re running rampant can understand this, why can’t the sharpest handicapping minds on the planet discuss this?

Hahaha. Don’t think I’ve mentioned that stuff much but when something (arrogance) gets thrown in your face and those chosen few want to try and talk down to you, I don’t forget that.
Oh, has Andy’s pick finished yet ?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

BTW. Golden Tempo was born on Feb. 5th
He is 11 days younger than Renegade.
I didn’t look up the other Feb. dates.

Hi, str. Saw some of your notes on horse-age. This is a variable that I've often referenced in Athletics:

*Hockey: the Juniors get an advantage if they are born in JAN/FEB.

*Hi-School Wrestling: the birth-date has a HUGE impact on results. Age-advantage wrestlers can be 19.5 by March of senior season.

*Most American sports: peak performance comes at age 27. A little later for MLB pitchers. GMs often wind up over-paying for mid-30 athletes that already peaked.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL Chucky. Thanks for checking in.

I think about all the time you guys put in with the horses at the crack of dawn.

Props to the winner at long-shot odds. Trifecta paid a handsome 5-figure amount. I have dreamt of getting a piece of the Derby long-shot exotic.

[JBEX]

paige turner (army mule) finished 2nd [6-5] in allowance at churchill yesterday. .$127k oaks undercard so you know that's a tough race

active day for horses by him at major tracks including R14 at churchill 9 big jake (8-1)..oaklawn races 10 and 11 .. 10 razorback army (20-1) and 10 master mule (5-2)

big jake .. 3rd/12 [7-5]

even factoring it was the last race and baffert pretty amazing to be bet like that with the pools there today and his morning line of 8-1


razorback army scratched


master mule WON easy @ 3-5 .. really big horse

[batt33]

Hats off to the winner. I thought we were all but home at the 1/4 pole. The winner ran great. Renegade ran super. No excuses. 2nd best today.
Oh, has Andy’s horse , Further Ado finished yet?? I know, he bounced. lolol.
I don’t usually get like that but Andy started it. Andy, You pick them and we will train them.

[JBEX]

BTW. Golden Tempo was born on Feb. 5th
He is 11 days younger than Renegade.
I didn’t look up the other Feb. dates.

chief wallabe 2/6 and a comfortable gap to all the others so the age angle you gave is really impressive !

[str]

BTW. Golden Tempo was born on Feb. 5th
He is 11 days younger than Renegade.
I didn’t look up the other Feb. dates.

[str]

Hats off to the winner. I thought we were all but home at the 1/4 pole. The winner ran great. Renegade ran super. No excuses. 2nd best today.
Oh, has Andy’s horse , Further Ado finished yet?? I know, he bounced. lolol.
I don’t usually get like that but Andy started it. Andy, You pick them and we will train them.

[str]

I would guess that's a high pressure spot with a horse of that caliber off a long layoff..can see that giving him a real confidence boost going forward


assuming they might be pointing for mile races down the road you think going 9f today like he did on the front is a good conditioner to cut back a furlong ?

An inner confidence that everyone needs to earn. Scratching and running back on his timeline gives him exactly that.

[JBEX]

Can’t begin to tell you how important that effort was in relation to the confidence that it will convey to the trainer. He is officially not “ Clements son” anymore. He’s a force from here out .
so happy for the family. His dad would be thrilled!!!

I would guess that's a high pressure spot with a horse of that caliber off a long layoff..can see that giving him a real confidence boost going forward


assuming they might be pointing for mile races down the road you think going 9f today like he did on the front is a good conditioner to cut back a furlong ?

[Snowball]

GL Snowball. Anything can happen. Thanks for checking in.

yw. I just added a few more. really didn't want Rhetorical to win, all I got from him was a dbl carry to r12 on the 18.
this is a wide-open race. i hit a cold pick 6 at Tampa last week. all 6 singles.
good luck. even though it feels unnatural to fight the discipline, the pools demand taking some wild shots.

[JBEX]

Another gear for sure. Push Button as well. Gotta be very athletic and not gauky to be able to do that.

I've heard that before (maybe from you) .. like that description

[JBEX]

It sure does. File that away for another day JBEX.

yeah but probably more useful here as possibly a bit of a downgrade (not eliminator) for the derby today .. sure he'll be back there for the fall meet or possibly the breeders cup mile or classic

be a fun time in the fall with the bc at kee (vs out west) and belmont park kicking off it's first meet

[str]

here's where i'm at right now
disregard the 9 he's scr.
combination of serious and lotto plays
strongest opinion is the 19.

r11
db 6/18
db 7,10/6,12,19
db 10/6,7,12,18,19

r12
wn 15,19,17,2,11
pl 19
sh 19,10,22,17
ex 6/2,18
ex 11/19,22
exb 6,9,19
exb 16,18,19
exb 5,7,8
exb 4,10
exb 4,11
exb 7,15
exb 2,21
tr 11/18/6,19
tr 18/9,17/9,17
tr 6,7/6,7/1,8,12,19
tr 19/18/1,6,8,10
su 6,12/6,12/3,10/3,10
su 5,16/5,16/7,8/7,8
shf 3/21/9/1/14
shf 18/4/19/12/11
j8 18/4/19/12/11/1/21/8
j8 19,18,8,6,1,12,14,10

r13
wsh 10
db 10/3,7,8,9

r14
wn 9,10,12
sh 7

GL Snowball. Anything can happen. Thanks for checking in.

[Snowball]

here's where i'm at right now
disregard the 9 he's scr.
combination of serious and lotto plays
strongest opinion is the 19.

r11
db 6/18
db 7,10/6,12,19
db 10/6,7,12,18,19

r12
wn 15,19,17,2,11
pl 19
sh 19,10,22,17
ex 6/2,18
ex 11/19,22
exb 6,9,19
exb 16,18,19
exb 5,7,8
exb 4,10
exb 4,11
exb 7,15
exb 2,21
tr 11/18/6,19
tr 18/9,17/9,17
tr 6,7/6,7/1,8,12,19
tr 19/18/1,6,8,10
su 6,12/6,12/3,10/3,10
su 5,16/5,16/7,8/7,8
shf 3/21/9/1/14
shf 18/4/19/12/11
j8 18/4/19/12/11/1/21/8
j8 19,18,8,6,1,12,14,10

r13
wsh 10
db 10/3,7,8,9

r14
wn 9,10,12
sh 7

[str]

little interesting to me that both of his keeneland races were freaky good .. made just a coincidence but does stick out in the pp's

It sure does. File that away for another day JBEX.

[str]

yeah he looked good batt .. not my expertise at all but he seems to be an easy mover so to speak .. really fluid and efficient stride

Can’t begin to tell you how important that effort was in relation to the confidence that it will convey to the trainer. He is officially not “ Clements son” anymore. He’s a force from here out .
so happy for the family. His dad would be thrilled!!!

[str]

Two token bets:

$2: 6 Comm - to Show
...I like playing the Favorite to hit the board in this race.

$2: 8 Emerg Mkt - to Win
...Might be a bias against the "3rd-time starter."

GL Chucky. Thanks for checking in.

[str]

maybe "another gear" is the right term .. have made this mistake before

Another gear for sure. Push Button as well. Gotta be very athletic and not gauky to be able to do that.

[str]

hey str

posted a link for the '86 derby in my thread (last post previous page) .. ferdinand the last horse to break from the rail to win the derby .. commented that shoemaker had him towards the outside of the pack coming out of the far turn but darted to the inside winning it coming up the rail ..do you have to be an athletic horse with a quick turn-of-foot to do something like that ?

Absolutely!! I remember that move. He found a spot towards the inside a second before he would have had to commit to 6 wide. Extremely athletic move especially for a three year old in May.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two token bets:

$2: 6 Comm - to Show
...I like playing the Favorite to hit the board in this race.

$2: 8 Emerg Mkt - to Win
...Might be a bias against the "3rd-time starter."

[JBEX]

hey str

posted a link for the '86 derby in my thread (last post previous page) .. ferdinand the last horse to break from the rail to win the derby .. commented that shoemaker had him towards the outside of the pack coming out of the far turn but darted to the inside winning it coming up the rail ..do you have to be an athletic horse with a quick turn-of-foot to do something like that ?

maybe "another gear" is the right term .. have made this mistake before

[JBEX]

hey str

posted a link for the '86 derby in my thread (last post previous page) .. ferdinand the last horse to break from the rail to win the derby .. commented that shoemaker had him towards the outside of the pack coming out of the far turn but darted to the inside winning it coming up the rail ..do you have to be an athletic horse with a quick turn-of-foot to do something like that ?

[JBEX]

Nice race!

yeah he looked good batt .. not my expertise at all but he seems to be an easy mover so to speak .. really fluid and efficient stride

[batt33]

5 deterministic (6-5) makes his 5 yo debut in the fort marcy stakes (grade 3) @ aqueduct R4 (2:28)

as most know this is a long time follow for str and me

Nice race!

[JBEX]

Yeah, I get it. He lives and dies on his figures. No question he is one of the top horses and looks to get a nice stalking trip fairly close up.
I don’t get how he runs 12 4/5s for the last 1/8th and earns a 106? In His race he went the last 3/8ths in 36 2/5ths
Renegade went 36 2/5ths from 7th with the last 1/8th in 11 4/5ths. And not all out . The Puma would pick Renegade as the Puma beat Further Ado but Renegade owned him.
Further Ado has about the best post he could have drawn for his style of running. Renegade has a lot of work to do with the 1 hole.
if Andy is right, he shines with his figures. If he loses, he blames the bounce.

I also have a history with Andy being in Md. my entire career. We are really different people. While I do respect his work with handicapping very much, I enjoy beating his opinions a lot. It’s friendly but… only somewhat. I have never cared for arrogance.

Good Luck Nasher !!!

little interesting to me that both of his keeneland races were freaky good .. made just a coincidence but does stick out in the pp's

[str]

Beyer says Further Ado all day.

Yeah, I get it. He lives and dies on his figures. No question he is one of the top horses and looks to get a nice stalking trip fairly close up.
I don’t get how he runs 12 4/5s for the last 1/8th and earns a 106? In His race he went the last 3/8ths in 36 2/5ths
Renegade went 36 2/5ths from 7th with the last 1/8th in 11 4/5ths. And not all out . The Puma would pick Renegade as the Puma beat Further Ado but Renegade owned him.
Further Ado has about the best post he could have drawn for his style of running. Renegade has a lot of work to do with the 1 hole.
if Andy is right, he shines with his figures. If he loses, he blames the bounce.

I also have a history with Andy being in Md. my entire career. We are really different people. While I do respect his work with handicapping very much, I enjoy beating his opinions a lot. It’s friendly but… only somewhat. I have never cared for arrogance.

Good Luck Nasher !!!