Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

would you say str that saffie joseph and irad were thinking things might unfold like this especially given the way irad warmed WA up prior to the race
.. have to think they were not totally surprised that they might wind up with the stalking trip

[str]

What a dream come true for White Abarrio. He warmed up with the full intention of settling on the front end early. So much so that while the other horses were lining up and walking to the gate, WA was still jogging in figure 8's back and forth to the gate and back to the other horses. That got the other riders attention late in the post parade and it got into their head that W.A. would be gunning for the lead. They assumed they would need to break and go just enough so as to not allow a 25-50 first couple of fractions. So, the gate opens, both former 3 yr. olds pay strict attention to W.A. and decide they would try and put a little pressure on him so that 25-50 fraction split scenario does not happen. Then, Irad, seeing the other riders using their horses just enough to lean on W.A., pulls the plug and takes back. Whoops !!

Within the next 5 strides, the setup was so perfect for W.A. to stalk 3rd with a totally clean right eye, and simply wait to pounce as they turned for home. Both Sov. and Journalism found themselves in the classic fish out of water scenario. Both riders had to be sick going down the backside. Only one thing was left to happen. W.A. simply had to respond when Irad asked him. That's it. Nothing else.
And, he did. Both Sov. and Journalism were left out of lung capacity and totally out of their element the last 1/8th of a mile.
A not so surprising " Welcome to 4 years old and upward guys".

I have to think both trainers were sick going into the 1st turn. I know I would have been. The 7 yr., old with a race under his belt who has won a BC Classic and 7+ Million gets the catbird seat against two just turned 4 yr. olds that have not run in months after a hard fought 3yr. old campaigns.

For those that played W.A., it really doesn't get much more fun than that. Wow !

[JBEX]

I think sovereignty and journalism just found themselves on the front end in a small field where there was really not a consistent front running type.. white abarrio is not a speed horse but looked most likely of the 3 of them to be able to get the lead if he wanted it .. I don't know if being on lead and pressing the pace respectively confused SOV and JOU or WA is just that good .. probably a combination of both and a great race and win for the latter

[JBEX]

Thanks J

buys a lot of hay.

I'm playing White Aborrio to " steal one " 2day.

no problem boa .. I like the low ml combined with str's view of how the race might unfold ..but as mentioned I do want to see WA played at ML or below .. might consider 4-1 but 9-2 too much and would scare me away .. hopefully we're both on the winner

[JBEX]

So this would be a bet that is all about position and the clock. We've certainly seen that before. Pace makes the race, right? In a race like this, I would think that Mott would not want to be laying 2nd early. He would be most likely uncomfortable with that. Why? Because Mott is not running for today. Mott is running for the year. This is the 1st race. So IMO, it's a mindset. It's a build that starts today. That is certainly how I would look at it.
He wants Sov to break and find a stride. Breath and find a relaxed, comfortable position. Now that could be 2nd... but... Mott's main objective is not winning today, odd as that might sound. Does he want to? Of course. But his number one job is to map out a season for this horse. It is not to win at all costs today like there is no tomorrow. So all of this becomes a mental approach. I do hope that makes sense to fans who are anxious to see this race today. Mott is looking for RELAX AND BREATH. Settle and go when asked.

In the NFL, the objective is to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Anyone remember the Seahawks first game of the season last year? I don't.
So admit it or not, like it or not, the mindset for a trainer HAS to be, the season. This might rub bettors the wrong way but it's the truth and the only practical way it can be professionally approached. And this happens every year. All the time. Please everyone, do not misconstrue what I say to be that the race if fixed, or someone might not be trying. That is ridiculous. But the honest reality is the season, not the day. I hope people can understand that.

So with all that said, in a race void of any true speed, if White Arbarrio breaks running, why NOT go to the lead? Nobody wants it. So sure, make the lead if it is available, slow down the pace and see what happens from the 3/8ths pole home. I also think 5-1 would be a solid play on price. Why? Because if that race on paper materializes, it seems too me that W. A. would likely win 2 out of 5 of those with a half mile in 48 and change relaxed and uncontested early. Maybe 2 1/2 times on average. So, 5-1 is value.

W. A. is running to make money. Period. So he is ready with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Sov. , Journalism are both getting their 4 yr. old campaign going. Neither horse should be geared up to the moon for today. It's a long season.
Either could win, heck why not? But the value is most likely in W.A. today. Of course, value doesn't pay the bills, winning does, . As long as the player approaches the race with those things in mind, they will be fine because they will have a true understanding of what they are watching.

Solid observation JBEX. It's always pretty cool when we all look at the same form and see things so differently. We see this the same.

Enjoy the race everyone. I'm off to Laurel for King T.'s celebration of life this morning at Laurel. I'll see the old crowd I assume. King was one of a kind. So glad I got to know him so well in his last years when we were not competing.

GL everyone.

if that scenario materializes and SOV does not press WA (as you said) he could be on an easy lead with comfortable fractions
.. maybe the ml maker sees that and feels some of the bigger money flowing in will also .. I thought it was optimistic to make him 7-2 in here off what he's done recently.. possibly the idea might be if he goes off around that it's a good sign that he's supported well and ditch the 5-1 odds minimum..I think I I have changed my mind and if WA is ml or below he would be my play

obviously we can't forget journalism but have to think his connections will probably view this race the same way as SOV's and he would also be compromised by a slow pace

i agree that the connections of WA can go into this with an underdog mentality.. everything to gain and if they run 3rd or worse that's what was supposed to happen

have a good time at laurel str and appreciate your input on the race

[BOA12]

usually 20% and don't think it'd be any different here.. about a half million dollar difference winning vs 2nd

Thanks J

buys a lot of hay.

I'm playing White Aborrio to " steal one " 2day.

[JBEX]

I never mind being 2nd best against the best.

What % of the purse for place if you know ?

usually 20% and don't think it'd be any different here.. about a half million dollar difference winning vs 2nd

[batt33]

Catching up on the threads! I've been dealing with the parents... Dad and I are good... He needs either 2 stents or open heart surgery... his choice... anyway taking a look at the Oaklawn race!

Just saw the Flight line colt when for 10.5 million at the OBS sale! Wholly smokes! Hopefully not another "green Monkey "for the buyers!

As far as my horses "closest to racing
Caldera ..My Kenttucky derby hopeful from last year... he has been training super well... looking for an allowance race... entered but races haven't been filling.

Caldera stretched his legs this morning at Palm Meadows through 3/8 in :36.95. He’s pretty much sitting on go at this point, so doesn’t need to do much as we wait for a race. The same race we were looking at as an extra is back in the new condition book for Apr. 30, so that will be the target for now.

Bacio ..The turf speed freak... is pointed to a race derby week at keenland
Bacio worked the bullet five furlongs yesterday(10days ago)at Keeneland in :59.80 and exited the move in good order. Trainer Wesley Ward has his sights set on an allowance race on Apr. 28 at Churchill Downs (Derby week) to start off your colt’s sophomore campaign. The hope is to use that race as a potential springboard to a trip to Royal Ascot if Bacio runs well and seems up to the task.

Nakoma Update



Nakoma has been entered again today in a new extra at Gulfstream going 5 1/2 furlongs on the Tapeta. If it goes today it’ll be for Apr. 24, but with it being an extra it could take longer than one day to fill. Note that our racing team will be traveling back from Ocala right around when tonight’s overnight is released, but we’ll be sure to provide more info as soon as we can if/when the race goes.

still have a few others getting back or winding up

Black Tie Optional Check In



We checked in on Black Tie Optional this morning at Los Alamitos. He’s looking good and likely two to three weeks or so away from returning to the work tab.

Your colt’s sire Not This Time was represented today by G1 Dubai World Cup hero Magnitude.

[BOA12]

So this would be a bet that is all about position and the clock. We've certainly seen that before. Pace makes the race, right? In a race like this, I would think that Mott would not want to be laying 2nd early. He would be most likely uncomfortable with that. Why? Because Mott is not running for today. Mott is running for the year. This is the 1st race. So IMO, it's a mindset. It's a build that starts today. That is certainly how I would look at it.
He wants Sov to break and find a stride. Breath and find a relaxed, comfortable position. Now that could be 2nd... but... Mott's main objective is not winning today, odd as that might sound. Does he want to? Of course. But his number one job is to map out a season for this horse. It is not to win at all costs today like there is no tomorrow. So all of this becomes a mental approach. I do hope that makes sense to fans who are anxious to see this race today. Mott is looking for RELAX AND BREATH. Settle and go when asked.

In the NFL, the objective is to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Anyone remember the Seahawks first game of the season last year? I don't.
So admit it or not, like it or not, the mindset for a trainer HAS to be, the season. This might rub bettors the wrong way but it's the truth and the only practical way it can be professionally approached. And this happens every year. All the time. Please everyone, do not misconstrue what I say to be that the race if fixed, or someone might not be trying. That is ridiculous. But the honest reality is the season, not the day. I hope people can understand that.

So with all that said, in a race void of any true speed, if White Arbarrio breaks running, why NOT go to the lead? Nobody wants it. So sure, make the lead if it is available, slow down the pace and see what happens from the 3/8ths pole home. I also think 5-1 would be a solid play on price. Why? Because if that race on paper materializes, it seems too me that W. A. would likely win 2 out of 5 of those with a half mile in 48 and change relaxed and uncontested early. Maybe 2 1/2 times on average. So, 5-1 is value.

W. A. is running to make money. Period. So he is ready with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Sov. , Journalism are both getting their 4 yr. old campaign going. Neither horse should be geared up to the moon for today. It's a long season.
Either could win, heck why not? But the value is most likely in W.A. today. Of course, value doesn't pay the bills, winning does, . As long as the player approaches the race with those things in mind, they will be fine because they will have a true understanding of what they are watching.

Solid observation JBEX. It's always pretty cool when we all look at the same form and see things so differently. We see this the same.

Enjoy the race everyone. I'm off to Laurel for King T.'s celebration of life this morning at Laurel. I'll see the old crowd I assume. King was one of a kind. So glad I got to know him so well in his last years when we were not competing.

GL everyone.

I never mind being 2nd best against the best.

What % of the purse for place if you know ?

[str]

hey str

I think on paper white abarrio will be the speed in the big race but what good is it to have sovereignty sitting right off your flank .. how about throwing a bit of a curveball , take back after the break , "possibly" getting SOV to do something he's never done and wind up on the lead .. be the pressee vs being the pressed .. like to know what your thoughts are on the race besides
that

So this would be a bet that is all about position and the clock. We've certainly seen that before. Pace makes the race, right? In a race like this, I would think that Mott would not want to be laying 2nd early. He would be most likely uncomfortable with that. Why? Because Mott is not running for today. Mott is running for the year. This is the 1st race. So IMO, it's a mindset. It's a build that starts today. That is certainly how I would look at it.
He wants Sov to break and find a stride. Breath and find a relaxed, comfortable position. Now that could be 2nd... but... Mott's main objective is not winning today, odd as that might sound. Does he want to? Of course. But his number one job is to map out a season for this horse. It is not to win at all costs today like there is no tomorrow. So all of this becomes a mental approach. I do hope that makes sense to fans who are anxious to see this race today. Mott is looking for RELAX AND BREATH. Settle and go when asked.

In the NFL, the objective is to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. Anyone remember the Seahawks first game of the season last year? I don't.
So admit it or not, like it or not, the mindset for a trainer HAS to be, the season. This might rub bettors the wrong way but it's the truth and the only practical way it can be professionally approached. And this happens every year. All the time. Please everyone, do not misconstrue what I say to be that the race if fixed, or someone might not be trying. That is ridiculous. But the honest reality is the season, not the day. I hope people can understand that.

So with all that said, in a race void of any true speed, if White Arbarrio breaks running, why NOT go to the lead? Nobody wants it. So sure, make the lead if it is available, slow down the pace and see what happens from the 3/8ths pole home. I also think 5-1 would be a solid play on price. Why? Because if that race on paper materializes, it seems too me that W. A. would likely win 2 out of 5 of those with a half mile in 48 and change relaxed and uncontested early. Maybe 2 1/2 times on average. So, 5-1 is value.

W. A. is running to make money. Period. So he is ready with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Sov. , Journalism are both getting their 4 yr. old campaign going. Neither horse should be geared up to the moon for today. It's a long season.
Either could win, heck why not? But the value is most likely in W.A. today. Of course, value doesn't pay the bills, winning does, . As long as the player approaches the race with those things in mind, they will be fine because they will have a true understanding of what they are watching.

Solid observation JBEX. It's always pretty cool when we all look at the same form and see things so differently. We see this the same.

Enjoy the race everyone. I'm off to Laurel for King T.'s celebration of life this morning at Laurel. I'll see the old crowd I assume. King was one of a kind. So glad I got to know him so well in his last years when we were not competing.

GL everyone.

[JBEX]

I'd want at least 5-1 on white abarrio and think he will be higher than the 7-2 ml

[JBEX]

hey str

I think on paper white abarrio will be the speed in the big race but what good is it to have sovereignty sitting right off your flank .. how about throwing a bit of a curveball , take back after the break , "possibly" getting SOV to do something he's never done and wind up on the lead .. be the pressee vs being the pressed .. like to know what your thoughts are on the race besides
that

[BOA12]

Chief all in, road trip/poker game.

Can't justify one w/out the other.

[BOA12]

How about we split it 4 ways.

MIA bound- GP or bust 4US.

4-horse lover brothers

on a quest like no others.

[str]

Ball is my court,

might drag J and the Chief of AC

2 split the gas 3ways - first leg of a possible

odyssey of 3.

It would be my pleasure to make that occur.

Tazmania out-law line;


30-1

How about we split it 4 ways.

[BOA12]

B12: That would be Laurel Park. It would be my pleasure if that occurred.

Ball is my court,

might drag J and the Chief of AC

2 split the gas 3ways - first leg of a possible

odyssey of 3.

It would be my pleasure to make that occur.

Tazmania out-law line;


30-1

[str]

If I made my way to str land,

what is the closest oval or otb

someone would bump into you, a chance meeting ?

B12: That would be Laurel Park. It would be my pleasure if that occurred.

[str]

I agree str and can't see facing sovereignty right off the bat .. start off with an easier assignment, hopefully win and establish some positive momentum going forward .. that's might be along the lines of what deterministic's connections are thinking but no way to know for sure

Give your horse a chance to experience winning and try to build from that. This is not to say it is impossible for him or the others to win , but the whole world will give Sovereignty a pass if he loses. It just seems to me that the cons outweigh to pros right now. And if an upset does occur, pretty good chance that winning horse would have won somewhere else as well.

I always tried to avoid break even or lose situations.

[JBEX]

You can almost feel the pressure now being totally OFF of Deterministic. Just like that, he is now left alone to run when he is ready. Bold move by his trainer and I applaud it. That took guts as well as an aura of confidence to not bow to the pressure. His dad would be so very proud. Well done !

All this made up pressure is so over hyped. So on that subject, I have to ask why would you want to run against Sovereignty first back after losing to him multiple times the year before? I don't get it. I suppose a cynic would say something detrimental about it but who gives a damn. That cynic has zero time or money invested in this. If a horse wins, they start liking it. Loving it. And in plenty of cases it can change their effort and personality in a positive way. Personally, I would have no interest in running a nice race and being 3rd or 2nd. And if you were going to beat Sovereignty, the first thing said would be excuses why you beat him . I mean, Breeders Cup, Travers, that kind of race, sure. But Oaklawn Handicap in April? I don't care what grade it is. You play to win the game. Herm Edwards was spot on IMO.

I agree str and can't see facing sovereignty right off the bat .. start off with an easier assignment, hopefully win and establish some positive momentum going forward .. that's might be along the lines of what deterministic's connections are thinking but no way to know for sure

[BOA12]

If I made my way to str land,

what is the closest oval or otb

someone would bump into you, a chance meeting ?

[str]

churchill has a listed stakes at a mile on the turf on 4/30 with a $350k purse .. bet that's where we see him next and a little class relief vs the kee G1 first off the long layoff

You can almost feel the pressure now being totally OFF of Deterministic. Just like that, he is now left alone to run when he is ready. Bold move by his trainer and I applaud it. That took guts as well as an aura of confidence to not bow to the pressure. His dad would be so very proud. Well done !

All this made up pressure is so over hyped. So on that subject, I have to ask why would you want to run against Sovereignty first back after losing to him multiple times the year before? I don't get it. I suppose a cynic would say something detrimental about it but who gives a damn. That cynic has zero time or money invested in this. If a horse wins, they start liking it. Loving it. And in plenty of cases it can change their effort and personality in a positive way. Personally, I would have no interest in running a nice race and being 3rd or 2nd. And if you were going to beat Sovereignty, the first thing said would be excuses why you beat him . I mean, Breeders Cup, Travers, that kind of race, sure. But Oaklawn Handicap in April? I don't care what grade it is. You play to win the game. Herm Edwards was spot on IMO.

[JBEX]

Does seem odd. The good news is, going forward, there is no race to " point" towards in particular. That is code for, he can run wherever he wants and whenever the time is right. Advantage Deterministic. Always a better percentage play to run when the horse tells you instead of when the condition book does. Probably better for it in the long run as long as he is healthy.

churchill has a listed stakes at a mile on the turf on 4/30 with a $350k purse .. bet that's where we see him next and a little class relief vs the kee G1 first off the long layoff

[batt33]

Munny Problems ran MUCH better yesterday and was a different horse. He is still learning but what helps that learning curve is running against horses that you are most likely as good as or better, allows small things that happen to not be as consequential.
He got pinched a little leaving the gate. Probably the best thing that happened to him. It allowed the horse to gather himself up, and also to realize early down the backside that he belonged with that quality of horse. He was certainly 2nd best and probably will improve to be as good as the winner ran in his next race or two. That's not to say that the winner will not also improve and might end up a little better, but whatever. This horse needs to find his niche and gain fitness and confidence along with experience and yesterday did exactly that. You could see it going down the backside early. It's like the lightbulb went off. Soooo cool to see that. ( One of the things I will never stop missing about training).
I think there is some more improvement ahead, as he will be fitter next out and this time he will know what he is there for. Look for a different demeanor in the paddock and warming up.
He will be fine. He will win real soon. He got a bit tired but it was a healthy tired NOT an overwhelming tired. Huge difference. Mike's got him and he is in great hands. Good job Batt !

Thanks STR!
From the post race interviews right in line with what you observed!


Both jockey Mychel Sanchez and trainer Mike Trombetta provided feedback in line with our own observations: Munny Problem clearly has significant talent, but is still a young horse who’s figuring things out. Mike said he had been toying with adding blinkers for this start, but wanted to give Munny Problem one more try without them first. After today, he plans to add them in training and will likely use them for Munny Problem’s next race. Mike noted he’s always thought highly of the winner, and expects your colt to be very tough in his next outing in a similar spot.

[str]

This was from awhile back..

Munny Problem has remained on a normal training routine at Gulfstream Park since his debut and had his first work back this morning breezing a very easy half mile in :51.34.

After speaking with trainer Mike Trombetta further, we have decided we will be moving your colt to Fair Hill this coming week. In speaking with Mike, he feels that the Laurel Park turf course will suit him much better as it has a bit more give to it versus the very firm Gulfstream Park turf course. In addition, Fair Hill is a tremendous place for a horse to train and be stabled with the various courses to train over (dirt, synthetic, and turf gallops), along with the potential for turn-out time as well. While the turf season does not begin until about mid-April at Laurel, Mike said he would not be afraid look at a MSW on dirt either if Munny Problem trains forwardly enough over it in the coming weeks. This time of year, the dirt maiden special weights typically go with light and short fields, which is a bonus. We will let Mike make those final determinations of where and when exactly he wants to run, but we wanted to inform you of our current plan and thought process.

Munny Problems ran MUCH better yesterday and was a different horse. He is still learning but what helps that learning curve is running against horses that you are most likely as good as or better, allows small things that happen to not be as consequential.
He got pinched a little leaving the gate. Probably the best thing that happened to him. It allowed the horse to gather himself up, and also to realize early down the backside that he belonged with that quality of horse. He was certainly 2nd best and probably will improve to be as good as the winner ran in his next race or two. That's not to say that the winner will not also improve and might end up a little better, but whatever. This horse needs to find his niche and gain fitness and confidence along with experience and yesterday did exactly that. You could see it going down the backside early. It's like the lightbulb went off. Soooo cool to see that. ( One of the things I will never stop missing about training).
I think there is some more improvement ahead, as he will be fitter next out and this time he will know what he is there for. Look for a different demeanor in the paddock and warming up.
He will be fine. He will win real soon. He got a bit tired but it was a healthy tired NOT an overwhelming tired. Huge difference. Mike's got him and he is in great hands. Good job Batt !

[batt33]

BTW... I spoke to Mike at an awards luncheon a few of weeks ago that I went to with a friend of mine. Had not talked to him since I left 25 years ago. It was great to catch up for a few minutes. He is the same guy he was when he and his dad had 2 horses at Pimlico. Just a great guy.
Told him how happy I was for all his success and to keep it up. I'm sure he will. He's a class act from humble beginnings. A really good horseman to say the least. All the best my friend.

That's pretty cool! Thanks STR!

[batt33]

I have always felt that a 3 yr. old maiden is most likely going to be better than a 4 yr. old maiden. Main reason is, why is a 4 yr. old still a maiden? Usually it is a lack of talent or speed or soundness. Then they have to carry much more weight going long. Huge edge for the 3 yr. old maidens in my book. Once there out of the maiden category it is usually a different story. But, it's a case by case thing.

As for today, IMO, the ONLY thing to watch is the horse himself. Period. Forget the winning, forget everything, just watch the horse. This horse needs to catch on to the plan of HOW to run, that being, attentive in the gate, break well, respond immediately to the riders commands, fall into a breathing pattern, THINK, listen to the bit and the subtle communication with the rider, be in snyc as a team.
All this is the key to becoming whatever it is you can become. But it starts with mental control and communication. If the horse just runs off and wins with his eyes on fire, nice win, but what the hell was that? This has to be a build of 2-3 races that can help shape this horses overall demeanor and career. That is WAY more important than todays purse. Do we want it to win? Of course ! But the number one thing here, IMO, is HOW this horse will warm up, break, settle, respond, finish and most importantly, learn that understanding the game can be more difficult that winning a race.
He needs to give himself a chance to build on something today. It's not about a race. It's about a career. And that career will go as far as his brain and demeanor will take him.

Good luck Batt ! Have a safe trip.

As always enjoy your thoughts and delving deeper besides trying to win a race!

[JBEX]

found another (AM) @ kee in R4 ..#4 weekend reveille (15-1) .. it's a maiden claiming so not impossible and will be balloon odds

came across another at oaklawn .. R5 #10 saving heart (5-2) .. also a maiden claimer

WON $4.80

[JBEX]

found another (AM) @ kee in R4 ..#4 weekend reveille (15-1) .. it's a maiden claiming so not impossible and will be balloon odds

out [63-1] think he needs mcl at a minor track to have a shot

[JBEX]

california burrito (army mule) going in R5 at keeneland (3:08) .. he's #10 @ (12-1)

mistake .. going next week sorry

[JBEX]

california burrito (army mule) going in R5 at keeneland (3:08) .. he's #10 @ (12-1)

[JBEX]

thanks str

yes I often feel when I see this that the horse is well meant and wound up ,hardened for a top effort vs lesser .. generally like the exiting race to be 3-6 lengths faster by figures (more is fine but starts to become too obvious) to establish it was a better race..I agree when it's done by upper echelon trainers some or all the value is gone and you're more likely to do better with mid pack or lower ones spotting their horses right

one analogy might be you're running high school track and go compete at the state level (so you're well above average) .. you put in solid efforts vs tough competition but you're not quite with the best ones .. when you return to compete on the school team even vs above average runners you will probably be primed to do well .. some of that conditioning and the feel that the same effort put forth here has you within your comfort zone hanging with these runners
.. I never ran track so possibly I'm wrong but I think you get the idea

[str]

hey str

do you feel the race a horse had prior to a win can have an effect on it repeating ?

an even run or slow fade vs better (faster) company might propel a horse more than a win or competitive effort in the race prior to the win .. along the lines that there might be more of a tightening effect that carries forward exiting the faster race vs a good finish in the slower one .. like winning via feeling the relief of the class drop might be more likely to carryover for one more race

Here is the question with a hundred answers. It's a good one.

This is where you get into the thought process of the trainer and what they are trying to achieve off that last effort. One quick note. I always will be a big proponent of concentrating on one particular meet instead of following 6 different tracks. I'm just an old guy now. Set in my ways and what worked for me and I get that. But... my reasoning is sound.
So past opinions, and likes or dislikes, if there is a proven method to anything, in any arena, for me... I'm riding that as long as it works, which is usually forever because it is proven and lasted the test of time. The hardest test of them all.

Not all, but many trainers fall into a pattern. Usually from prior success with that thought process attached to that pattern. So the slow fade vs. faster or better company shows a winning effort from the horse who seems to be a top shape in order to have that last effort be so good. Some trainers will just try it again in the same race. I get that. And there are a multitude of reasons why that might happen. But when you see a trainer take that horse off that nice effort where they just were not quite good enough, and work the horse a couple of times, and then place it aggressively downward slightly, and most likely that trainer is an over bet trainer because they win frequently, that is almost a gift for you. That trainer is there to win. Period. There are so many trainers that will try again and see what happens because of pressure not to lose the horse in the claim box from the owner or even themselves. But when you see the trainer almost jam that horse in to it's next start knowing that if the effort is repeated, it is most likely a winner, that is an edge you don't normally feel with a bet you make in any normal race. It's like you know as much as the trainer does.
As a rule, I don't really care for betting favorites. But in this case, unless the horse is way over bet, I think it is value. There is no guessing if the horse is good enough in general. Off that last race, it certainly appears so in the form. That is just one of several scenarios we will discuss. I'll do others in the coming days on the same subject. In the meantime, see if this makes sense albeit watching or betting. We don't always know all the info the trainer does, but we know the ability of the horse and if the race setup is favorable, often times those races are over half way through the race. Something to keep an eye on and see a race from another angle. Hope that makes sense for starters.

[str]

BTW... I spoke to Mike at an awards luncheon a few of weeks ago that I went to with a friend of mine. Had not talked to him since I left 25 years ago. It was great to catch up for a few minutes. He is the same guy he was when he and his dad had 2 horses at Pimlico. Just a great guy.
Told him how happy I was for all his success and to keep it up. I'm sure he will. He's a class act from humble beginnings. A really good horseman to say the least. All the best my friend.

[str]

Munny problem is making his second start at STR's Stomping grounds
Munny Problem: Entered



Munny Problem has been entered to run on Sunday, Apr. 12 in race 9 at Laurel Park. Your colt will break from post 3 of 7 with Mychel Sanchez aboard. Trainer Michael Trombetta saw that this option in the condition book seemed to be coming up a tad light and opted to enter your son of Munnings in this three-and-up, two-turn turf maiden special weight event. We will be back in the coming days with a closer look at the race.

Munny Problem: Race Overview



Munny Problem is set to make his second career start in race 9 on Sunday, Apr. 12 at Laurel Park. He will break from post 3 in a 7-horse field with Mychel Sanchez in the irons. Post time will be at 3:51 p.m. ET.

Your son of Munnings has posted two fast works at Fair Hill since he shipped north from Florida and seems to be doing very well coming into this start. In his debut, he was a bit tardy out of the gate and was hung out very wide throughout, making the task of debuting around two turns that much more difficult. Though her will face older horses for the first time, he will have a nice weight allowance and we expect a much-improved effort from him with a race under his belt.

the competition:

#1 Rosie’s Word: Missed by a head for the $30K tag at Turfway last out. He was competitive on synthetic, though his figures are a bit slow. He will try turf for the first time, but lacks any real turf pedigree.

#2 Copper Ghost: Fellow Trombetta trainee and past workmate of Munny Problem who will have to carry 126lbs (9lbs more than Munny Problem) due to being a year older. Makes his turf debut after four decent tries on synthetic.

#4 Roktar: Was well beaten on debut at Turfway Park in an auction price-restricted maiden event. Faces a tougher group here and will seek improvement switching to the turf.

#5 Zencat: Has been beaten a combined 39 3/4 lengths in his two starts this year. Goes back to the turf in hopes of improvement.

#6 Chatbot: Well beaten in both career starts. Will try turf in what seems to be a bit of desperation. This gelding lacks any real turf pedigree.

#7 Free Refills: Sports 9 works on the year coming into this debut with a bit of an irregular work pattern and will debut around two turns, making this a tall task.

I have always felt that a 3 yr. old maiden is most likely going to be better than a 4 yr. old maiden. Main reason is, why is a 4 yr. old still a maiden? Usually it is a lack of talent or speed or soundness. Then they have to carry much more weight going long. Huge edge for the 3 yr. old maidens in my book. Once there out of the maiden category it is usually a different story. But, it's a case by case thing.

As for today, IMO, the ONLY thing to watch is the horse himself. Period. Forget the winning, forget everything, just watch the horse. This horse needs to catch on to the plan of HOW to run, that being, attentive in the gate, break well, respond immediately to the riders commands, fall into a breathing pattern, THINK, listen to the bit and the subtle communication with the rider, be in snyc as a team.
All this is the key to becoming whatever it is you can become. But it starts with mental control and communication. If the horse just runs off and wins with his eyes on fire, nice win, but what the hell was that? This has to be a build of 2-3 races that can help shape this horses overall demeanor and career. That is WAY more important than todays purse. Do we want it to win? Of course ! But the number one thing here, IMO, is HOW this horse will warm up, break, settle, respond, finish and most importantly, learn that understanding the game can be more difficult that winning a race.
He needs to give himself a chance to build on something today. It's not about a race. It's about a career. And that career will go as far as his brain and demeanor will take him.

Good luck Batt ! Have a safe trip.

[str]

about half the field is scratched including deterministic and it's a firm turf .. not sure what's going on there .. very disappointed

Does seem odd. The good news is, going forward, there is no race to " point" towards in particular. That is code for, he can run wherever he wants and whenever the time is right. Advantage Deterministic. Always a better percentage play to run when the horse tells you instead of when the condition book does. Probably better for it in the long run as long as he is healthy.