Horse Racing questions and answers

[Madison]

Would appreciate some help please.

Bel @ Big A, R7 #4 Strong Quality. ML 6-1. 5th choice out of 7.

Past year all Turf mostly upper class than this. Last is a mystery to me, other than drawing a line though it, as it was not only dirt but about as sloppy as it gets. Looked totally out of sorts throughout?

Also Mr STR. Summers upon us. Would you kindly give us your brief thoughts on the effect of heat and humidity. I had one of the worst gambling nightmares of my life, with the Belmont, and Big brown burnt forever in my brain. Heat was oppressive that day.

Thanks!!

[str]

I have been watching each result on these AM's closer now for a week straight. I've seen every chart. There is a common theme here. Every one has been focused and ready to run when the gates opened. My question is, is every horse you bet on run focused and are ready to run? If so, you are doing a great job of identifying horses that are either well spotted or are primed for a solid effort. If not, look no further than the Army Mule horses and go from race to race and see how they fit, or not, and how the flow of the race will set up. I that flow fits well into the AM that is running, you are on to something.

These horses are the casual players dream come true. Can you blindly just bet? NO. Of course not. But can you bank on a solid effort and then pare those down to perfect trips or the opportunity to get one? Yes. Can you see if the odds justify a play? Yes. And you get overlays because the public has not caught on yet? Yes.

This is a gamblers delight. An edge almost everyone when you are at the track and looking around, does NOT know. You are playing against THEM. Not the track. So do yourself a favor and track this and see what I m talking about. And of course, if there are any questions , let me know. Folks, you just do NOT see this all the time at the track. It is an opportunity well worth exploring.

GL.

[JBEX]

brooklynn drew

class relief she needs ..good spot

since I reported AK this one got caught up in a wicked fast (sub 21) to the quarter and gave it up last eighth ..off at 4-5

[JBEX]

army kitten

a good example..even at the lower levels consistent as they come with good efforts

how bout a 60-1 on the lead ,is passed (not by AK) at the 3/8th's pole and fights back to win beating army kitten by a neck..the latter had a very slow start and was very wide on turn..AK went off 7-2

[JBEX]

brooklynn drew

class relief she needs ..good spot

[JBEX]

army kitten

a good example..even at the lower levels consistent as they come with good efforts

[JBEX]

army mule .. weds

churchill 1 @ 12:45
#3 brooklynn drew (7-2)

thistledown 2 @ 1:20
#3 army kitten (3-1)

parx 6 @ 2:59
#2 fast mule (9-2)

assiniboia * 3 @ 9:25
#1 burn jakey burn (8-1)
* canada

[JBEX]

my biggest concern is the 7 being speed of the speed and has back numbers ..I like that MM is the lone 3yo at a 2nd level track mid-year in an allowance race and obviously the talent is there off his last race..2nd in the slop debut, then patch adams and at churchill is no easy task and his chances were reflected with the odds ..expensive horse and gets the rail again ..like him ..wouldn't frown on a small hedge (33% of the 1) on the 7

realize it didn't unfold this way .. impressed the 3 was able to get the lead being he wired a cheap group of maiden claimers winning his debut last out ..maybe the 7 just likes to run with horses on the front even though he might be capable of getting the lead ..worked out nicely if you adjusted to an exacta based on MM being odds-on

[JBEX]

my biggest concern is the 7 being speed of the speed and has back numbers ..I like that MM is the lone 3yo at a 2nd level track mid-year in an allowance race and obviously the talent is there off his last race..2nd in the slop debut, then patch adams and at churchill is no easy task and his chances were reflected with the odds ..expensive horse and gets the rail again ..like him ..wouldn't frown on a small hedge (33% of the 1) on the 7

Sounds about right too me.
Seems like a pretty solid group for that track.

1-9 MM and 15-1 (7)with 8 mtp lol

[str]

my biggest concern is the 7 being speed of the speed and has back numbers ..I like that MM is the lone 3yo at a 2nd level track mid-year in an allowance race and obviously the talent is there off his last race..2nd in the slop debut, then patch adams and at churchill is no easy task and his chances were reflected with the odds ..expensive horse and gets the rail again ..like him ..wouldn't frown on a small hedge (33% of the 1) on the 7

Sounds about right too me.
Seems like a pretty solid group for that track.

[JBEX]

This race is kind of neat, in that if you want to know if the 1 horse is good enough, the trainer of the 2 horse knows without question.
A 3 year old against olders which often time's might favor the 3 yr. old as to quality of horse but in here, there were some promising 3 yr. olds that had to be stopped it looks like and anything could happen without me having a better understanding of the true quality of these different tracks.

All that said, often times playing an AM somewhat blindly, which I am at these less popular or known by me, tracks, I would watch and learn in here. But don't put anything past an Army Mule.

More later. Got a meeting now.

my biggest concern is the 7 being speed of the speed and has back numbers ..I like that MM is the lone 3yo at a 2nd level track mid-year in an allowance race and obviously the talent is there off his last race..2nd in the slop debut, then patch adams and at churchill is no easy task and his chances were reflected with the odds ..expensive horse and gets the rail again ..like him ..wouldn't frown on a small hedge (33% of the 1) on the 7

[str]

army mule .. tuesday

horseshoe 4 @ 3:43
#1 master mule (5-1)



.

This race is kind of neat, in that if you want to know if the 1 horse is good enough, the trainer of the 2 horse knows without question.
A 3 year old against olders which often time's might favor the 3 yr. old as to quality of horse but in here, there were some promising 3 yr. olds that had to be stopped it looks like and anything could happen without me having a better understanding of the true quality of these different tracks.

All that said, often times playing an AM somewhat blindly, which I am at these less popular or known by me, tracks, I would watch and learn in here. But don't put anything past an Army Mule.

More later. Got a meeting now.

[JBEX]

So here is the thing about this . I realize that "dead on the board" can tell a story sometimes. But... Do not think for a minute that the "Barn" doesn't like the horse this time. That is complete nonsense. Who in that barn is betting more than 20 bucks ? Seriously. The answer is nobody. And thinking that the "barn" has inside information is another fairy tail that fans thinks exists. It's all B.S. folks.

How on earth does a white hot trainer and jockey team up on solo speed and not get bet on?? That's insanity.

I only point this stuff out to try and help with a bettors mindset. This makes no sense whatsoever.

have questioned the validity of this approach also over the years and land somewhere in the middle on it .. obviously you would know better ,pun intended lol, on the mechanics of this than me .. I think with me also it's the thought of more sophisticated handicapping tools and simulcasting that might bring some more smart capping money into it also .. glad to know your opinion on it though as it's an absolutely crucial perspective to have right when you're betting .. do you feel differently about it with first time starters str ?

an aside ; part of the reaon imo you got that price on him with that trainer is he had no dirt route form and others did ..as I stated earlier while,to me anyway, it was possible he might be out there by himself it but it wasn't something that was glaring in his pp's ..feel the combo of both contributed to the high odds on him

[str]

3rd race in 26 days ..just missed by a nose in start 2 vs mcl $10k and finished 2nd in debut also at that same level..maybe too much too soon especially up in class to a msw today .. can understand not wanting to risk him though after his first two starts .. i would think there's a good chance they'll drop him back into a mcl next out

Totally agree. Where this horse is entered next will tell the story. They played their hand though by raising the horse up so high. Maybe nowhere in between md. 10k and MSW.? I don't know.

I should probably watch that race and see if once the horse was not going to be able to keep up, if the rider took a hold of him to get beat far enough to be able to justify running him back at the previous level.
I do understand that if the horse could not finish better than 4th. Although, in todays world, 4th still matters in the wagering sometimes. Yet another reason beyond the ridiculous high takeout to not play supers. IMO of course.

[str]

finished out of the money stalking the horse written about below




trainer and jockey white hot individually and hooking up as a tandem at the meet ..4-1 ml , goes off 10-1 (not a good sign considering connections) wires them and wins by a bunch .. not totally crazy to think he might have been the lone speed and ultimately that's what got it done for him

So here is the thing about this . I realize that "dead on the board" can tell a story sometimes. But... Do not think for a minute that the "Barn" doesn't like the horse this time. That is complete nonsense. Who in that barn is betting more than 20 bucks ? Seriously. The answer is nobody. And thinking that the "barn" has inside information is another fairy tail that fans thinks exists. It's all B.S. folks.

How on earth does a white hot trainer and jockey team up on solo speed and not get bet on?? That's insanity.

I only point this stuff out to try and help with a bettors mindset. This makes no sense whatsoever.

[JBEX]

army mule .. tuesday

horseshoe 4 @ 3:43
#1 master mule (5-1)



.

[JBEX]

Sgt. York: 2nd as the seconmd choice. 3-5 shot won it. Solid effort.

Trojan Mule: Finished 6th as the 5th favorite. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd.
Had the 1 post, got outside , was 3,4,5 wide around the far turn. If this horse can get a little class relief, play it next out. Just needs a little less group of maidens to win.

Come On Mulitch : 9;30 tonight. Ill look tomorrow.

finished out of the money stalking the horse written about below




trainer and jockey white hot individually and hooking up as a tandem at the meet ..4-1 ml , goes off 10-1 (not a good sign considering connections) wires them and wins by a bunch .. not totally crazy to think he might have been the lone speed and ultimately that's what got it done for him

[JBEX]

Sgt. York: 2nd as the seconmd choice. 3-5 shot won it. Solid effort.

Trojan Mule: Finished 6th as the 5th favorite. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd.
Had the 1 post, got outside , was 3,4,5 wide around the far turn. If this horse can get a little class relief, play it next out. Just needs a little less group of maidens to win.

Come On Mulitch : 9;30 tonight. Ill look tomorrow.

3rd race in 26 days ..just missed by a nose in start 2 vs mcl $10k and finished 2nd in debut also at that same level..maybe too much too soon especially up in class to a msw today .. can understand not wanting to risk him though after his first two starts .. i would think there's a good chance they'll drop him back into a mcl next out

[str]

army mule.. monday




thistledown 7 @ 3:50
#2 sgt york (9-5)

finger lakes 8 @ 4:23
#2 trojan mule (7-2)

prarie meadows 14 @ 9:31
#3 come on mulitch (8-1)

Sgt. York: 2nd as the seconmd choice. 3-5 shot won it. Solid effort.

Trojan Mule: Finished 6th as the 5th favorite. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd.
Had the 1 post, got outside , was 3,4,5 wide around the far turn. If this horse can get a little class relief, play it next out. Just needs a little less group of maidens to win.

Come On Mulitch : 9;30 tonight. Ill look tomorrow.

[str]

army mule.. monday




thistledown 7 @ 3:50
#2 sgt york (9-5)

finger lakes 8 @ 4:23
#2 trojan mule (7-2)

prarie meadows 14 @ 9:31
#3 come on mulitch (8-1)

They are all worth a long hard look.

[str]

thanks str..here's today's army mule's

baq 3 @ 2:05
#6 army proud (3-1)


mth 8 @ 4:20
#7 molly's a bullet (4-1)


mth 9
#1 bel pensiero (12-1)



monmouth are anthony margotta trained full siblings and in consecutive races..seen both before



.

Army Proud 2nd as the third choice in the field. Favorite won the race.




Molly's Bullet wins and pays 9.80 4.80 3.40

A 2.00 Exacta with the co favorite 2nd paid 43.20.

Horse in the 9th was scratched.....


I really hope some of you are taking advantage of this.

That payout is crazy. This is as close to having an edge as a player can ask for.

I have so many questions in here about understanding horses for a profit or an edge.

Those reading this are witnessing it daily.

I really hope this helps.

[str]

Hey EZ,

I remember you about asking "if blinkers off was not so popular back in the day"? Some trainers did but Dickie never did.
I think I said that I never took them off, just adjusted the cups as far as a 1 inch cup, so basically nothing. Remember I told you that we were taught all that ?

Here is Ricky Dutrow talking about adding blinkers to MacAfee last race and not getting the desired effect.

Quote: Dutrow had equipped McAfee with blinkers for the Peter Pan, and while he plans to keep them on for the Ohio Derby, Dutrow said he will cut them back a little bit.

“That’s what Johnny [Velazquez] said to do,” Dutrow said. “He was a little bit aggressive so we’ll cut them back to where he can settle better.”

Watch for an improved effort this time.

[JBEX]

army mule.. monday




thistledown 7 @ 3:50
#2 sgt york (9-5)

finger lakes 8 @ 4:23
#2 trojan mule (7-2)

prarie meadows 14 @ 9:31
#3 come on mulitch (8-1)

[JBEX]

bel pensiero scratched

[JBEX]

thanks str..here's today's army mule's

baq 3 @ 2:05
#6 army proud (3-1)


mth 8 @ 4:20
#7 molly's a bullet (4-1)


mth 9
#1 bel pensiero (12-1)


off turf .. scratched


monmouth are anthony margotta trained full siblings and in consecutive races..seen both before



.

just moving forward

[JBEX]

when you think about it she runs on both surfaces ,relatively early in the meet and a statebred ..nice show of confidence running her in an open stakes vs the boys

[JBEX]

absolutely..goes back to the 80's



bit of a step-up in class but she's a gamer and will probably offer value in here..like most and based on her last 3 turf sprints he seems like a battler when challenged

should be noted girl running against the boys

[JBEX]

I remember talking about Anthony Margotta.
A Monmouth Park stalwart

absolutely..goes back to the 80's

I think Bel Pensiaro will run better than 12-1 in there.
She is picked to run next to last.
She might, but that is ridiculous .
Other than two horses, the field is something like 2-35 on the turf.

bit of a step-up in class but she's a gamer and will probably offer value in here..like most and based on her last 3 turf sprints he seems like a battler when challenged

[str]

I think Bel Pensiaro will run better than 12-1 in there.
She is picked to run next to last.
She might, but that is ridiculous .
Other than two horses, the field is something like 2-35 on the turf.

[str]

thanks str..here's today's army mule's

baq 3 @ 2:05
#6 army proud (3-1)


mth 8 @ 4:20
#7 molly's a bullet (4-1)


mth 9
#1 bel pensiero (12-1)



monmouth are anthony margotta trained full siblings and in consecutive races..seen both before



.

I remember talking about Anthony Margotta.
A Monmouth Park stalwart

[JBEX]

thanks str..here's today's army mule's

baq 3 @ 2:05
#6 army proud (3-1)


mth 8 @ 4:20
#7 molly's a bullet (4-1)


mth 9
#1 bel pensiero (12-1)



monmouth are anthony margotta trained full siblings and in consecutive races..seen both before



.

[str]

they've done very well with him earning almost $300k on a $32k auction purchase .. great example of you can get a real nice horse at a reasonable price with this sire and we've certainly seen quite a few others like this ..this was one of those specialty alw conditions as he's been through all the core ones..maybe they'll have another or might have to expose him for a high tag ..that was an option in here if he didn't qualify on the time and distance part

Allowance races conditions are everything as we talked about last year when we were discussing running against Debby’s Turn with a claimer I had. Learned my lesson in one race as a freshman trainer.
Any slight class relief would be huge for this horse.
A perfect trip might do it but combine the two and it makes for a great opportunity to win.
Good comment on the allowance conditions.

[JBEX]

they've done very well with him earning almost $300k on a $32k auction purchase .. great example of you can get a real nice horse at a reasonable price with this sire and we've certainly seen quite a few others like this ..this was one of those specialty alw conditions as he's been through all the core ones..maybe they'll have another or might have to expose him for a high tag ..that was an option in here if he didn't qualify on the time and distance part

[str]

here's another

lone star 8 @ 5:51
#5 u. s. army (15-1)


.

This horse went off 11-1. He ran hard, ( no surprise), finishing 6th. Got beat 2 lengths for,3rd and 5 1/2 lengths for everything. Was 5 wide around the turn trying to rally and was within a length and a half will widest of all around the turn. All this horse needs to do is train lightly and drop a notch and if it gives the same effort, will be right there next out. Could run fine in this race next out with a better setup but hopefully the trainer will use that wide trip as a reason to give this one some class relief. Solid follow horse folks.

Clearly a horse to put in to your stable for next out.

[JBEX]

here's another

lone star 8 @ 5:51
#5 u. s. army (15-1)


.