Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

Awful jockey accident in Australia today

"Queensland country jockey Shane McGovern is facing the devastating prospect of losing both legs after being trapped beneath a dead horse for six agonising hours at Charters Towers on Wednesday."

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/quee...ident-20260410

This is tragic. I sure hope his legs can survive with the blood blockage. Riding alone and no eyes on you is always risky. We all know that but it does seem safe enough until it isn't. So sorry to hear this. Fingers crossed.

[str]

Going to try and catch up tomorrow. Sorry folks.

[JBEX]

army mule has an even money favorite in R4 @ kee saturday which is a msw race .. #4 shewontbudge

[JBEX]

Awful jockey accident in Australia today

"Queensland country jockey Shane McGovern is facing the devastating prospect of losing both legs after being trapped beneath a dead horse for six agonising hours at Charters Towers on Wednesday."

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/quee...ident-20260410

and what he had to endure for that many hours .. awful incident

[JBEX]

just saw an army mule miss by a neck at oaklawn (R9) .. an allowance race ($125k) .. just happened to notice the name as the race was being run .. wasn't looking for them

[batt33]

I like your horse at laurel batt .. even better than the trainer's other one

This was from awhile back..

Munny Problem has remained on a normal training routine at Gulfstream Park since his debut and had his first work back this morning breezing a very easy half mile in :51.34.

After speaking with trainer Mike Trombetta further, we have decided we will be moving your colt to Fair Hill this coming week. In speaking with Mike, he feels that the Laurel Park turf course will suit him much better as it has a bit more give to it versus the very firm Gulfstream Park turf course. In addition, Fair Hill is a tremendous place for a horse to train and be stabled with the various courses to train over (dirt, synthetic, and turf gallops), along with the potential for turn-out time as well. While the turf season does not begin until about mid-April at Laurel, Mike said he would not be afraid look at a MSW on dirt either if Munny Problem trains forwardly enough over it in the coming weeks. This time of year, the dirt maiden special weights typically go with light and short fields, which is a bonus. We will let Mike make those final determinations of where and when exactly he wants to run, but we wanted to inform you of our current plan and thought process.

[JBEX]

I like your horse at laurel batt .. even better than the trainer's other one

[batt33]

Honestly, I have no problem with the race at all. I saw enough to know that he will win. He got very tired. Makes sense. All that kickback from a wet track? Never happened to him before most likely. He was understandably confused and burned a ton of energy from the gate to the 5/8ths pole, finally took a breath, actually responded for about 6 jumps when asked but was clearly out of gas and leg weary at the 3/8ths pole area.
So what now? He needs to pick himself up, and he will, work a bit behind some horses and learn to split them or go by and finish up NOT out of air. Once he gets the hang of that, he will be ready to run back where he will improve. Of course Mike knows all of this.
He will be just fine, and now the expectations are low. Perfect time to get better. No pressure.

Munny problem is making his second start at STR's Stomping grounds
Munny Problem: Entered



Munny Problem has been entered to run on Sunday, Apr. 12 in race 9 at Laurel Park. Your colt will break from post 3 of 7 with Mychel Sanchez aboard. Trainer Michael Trombetta saw that this option in the condition book seemed to be coming up a tad light and opted to enter your son of Munnings in this three-and-up, two-turn turf maiden special weight event. We will be back in the coming days with a closer look at the race.

Munny Problem: Race Overview



Munny Problem is set to make his second career start in race 9 on Sunday, Apr. 12 at Laurel Park. He will break from post 3 in a 7-horse field with Mychel Sanchez in the irons. Post time will be at 3:51 p.m. ET.

Your son of Munnings has posted two fast works at Fair Hill since he shipped north from Florida and seems to be doing very well coming into this start. In his debut, he was a bit tardy out of the gate and was hung out very wide throughout, making the task of debuting around two turns that much more difficult. Though her will face older horses for the first time, he will have a nice weight allowance and we expect a much-improved effort from him with a race under his belt.

the competition:

#1 Rosie’s Word: Missed by a head for the $30K tag at Turfway last out. He was competitive on synthetic, though his figures are a bit slow. He will try turf for the first time, but lacks any real turf pedigree.

#2 Copper Ghost: Fellow Trombetta trainee and past workmate of Munny Problem who will have to carry 126lbs (9lbs more than Munny Problem) due to being a year older. Makes his turf debut after four decent tries on synthetic.

#4 Roktar: Was well beaten on debut at Turfway Park in an auction price-restricted maiden event. Faces a tougher group here and will seek improvement switching to the turf.

#5 Zencat: Has been beaten a combined 39 3/4 lengths in his two starts this year. Goes back to the turf in hopes of improvement.

#6 Chatbot: Well beaten in both career starts. Will try turf in what seems to be a bit of desperation. This gelding lacks any real turf pedigree.

#7 Free Refills: Sports 9 works on the year coming into this debut with a bit of an irregular work pattern and will debut around two turns, making this a tall task.

[batt33]

about half the field is scratched including deterministic and it's a firm turf .. not sure what's going on there .. very disappointed

That is strange at first glance with all the scratches I thought it was weather related.

[JBEX]

deterministic ( R9 , #10 , 5-1 ) is scheduled to make his 5yo debut in the maker's mark mile (grade 1) at keeneland on Friday .. the favorite is last year's breeders cup mile winner

about half the field is scratched including deterministic and it's a firm turf .. not sure what's going on there .. very disappointed

[Optional]

Awful jockey accident in Australia today

"Queensland country jockey Shane McGovern is facing the devastating prospect of losing both legs after being trapped beneath a dead horse for six agonising hours at Charters Towers on Wednesday."

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/queensland-country-jockey-shane-mcgovern-facing-the-prospect-of-having-both-legs-amputated-after-trackwork-accident-20260410

[JBEX]

deterministic ( R9 , #10 , 5-1 ) is scheduled to make his 5yo debut in the maker's mark mile (grade 1) at keeneland on Friday .. the favorite is last year's breeders cup mile winner

[JBEX]

Its a wide ranging question for sure. I like it though. What I will explain is how I saw and see different scenarios. It m ight make sense or not really register with everyone. That's fine. Certainly more than one way to handicap. But if people wanted to see how I made certain judgements about things, if that helps, I'm all for it. This entire thread has been about helping people see from other directions what others ( me) ,(I) saw. I hope it helps.

look forward to see how you view this or maybe more accurately different types of scenarios involving this situation .. I will hold off on my example for now so we can focus on what you have to say about it

[str]

apologize if I opened up a can of worms str lol ..no need to bother if you'd rather not and it makes sense to me that it's not a straightforward one size fits all answer .. I will (not right now) give you one example that I like and set parameters for variables like time in-between,distance and class..
appreciate you offering to do it either way

Its a wide ranging question for sure. I like it though. What I will explain is how I saw and see different scenarios. It m ight make sense or not really register with everyone. That's fine. Certainly more than one way to handicap. But if people wanted to see how I made certain judgements about things, if that helps, I'm all for it. This entire thread has been about helping people see from other directions what others ( me) ,(I) saw. I hope it helps.

[JBEX]

Really important question for me to try and relay my thoughts correctly without screwing it up. So I think I might approach this question by breaking it down. Because there are so many scenarios to that last win, I really do not want to type something that is not fully explained.
Let me figure out how to break this down into shorter responses over several posts instead of one long rambling mess which I would otherwise end up typing.

The early answer is it depends on too many scenarios when you talk about the race BEFORE the win to give one answer. I will try and put together a few scenarios over a few different answers. This one will keep me busy for a while. Lol.
I'll be back to start ASAP. Thanks JBEX.

apologize if I opened up a can of worms str lol ..no need to bother if you'd rather not and it makes sense to me that it's not a straightforward one size fits all answer .. I will (not right now) give you one example that I like and set parameters for variables like time in-between,distance and class..
appreciate you offering to do it either way

[str]

hey str

do you feel the race a horse had prior to a win can have an effect on it repeating ?

an even run or slow fade vs better (faster) company might propel a horse more than a win or competitive effort in the race prior to the win .. along the lines that there might be more of a tightening effect that carries forward exiting the faster race vs a good finish in the slower one .. like winning via feeling the relief of the class drop might be more likely to carryover for one more race

Really important question for me to try and relay my thoughts correctly without screwing it up. So I think I might approach this question by breaking it down. Because there are so many scenarios to that last win, I really do not want to type something that is not fully explained.
Let me figure out how to break this down into shorter responses over several posts instead of one long rambling mess which I would otherwise end up typing.

The early answer is it depends on too many scenarios when you talk about the race BEFORE the win to give one answer. I will try and put together a few scenarios over a few different answers. This one will keep me busy for a while. Lol.
I'll be back to start ASAP. Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

hey str

do you feel the race a horse had prior to a win can have an effect on it repeating ?

an even run or slow fade vs better (faster) company might propel a horse more than a win or competitive effort in the race prior to the win .. along the lines that there might be more of a tightening effect that carries forward exiting the faster race vs a good finish in the slower one .. like winning via feeling the relief of the class drop might be more likely to carryover for one more race

[JBEX]

I agree with all your takes JBEX. I think you are seeing things well. Or, if you are wrong, so am I. Lolol.

glad you agree with both of them str..I think we might see him trying the preakness next as a fresh horse vs those returning from the derby in 2 weeks .. might turn out being a blessing in disguise for him

[BOA12]

Wonderful to hear from you sir ! All is well here B12 . Not so sure about Pimlico though. Haha. This place has been pretty quiet lately. Real glad to see you check in. I hope all is well with you. Happy Easter Sunday to you and everyone.

Back at ya and all is well.

[str]

he was done entering the 1st turn (relative to having anything left at the end) because of the 10 who in my opinion had little chance in this race .. I have a hunch if not interfered with IH might've been able to settle in behind the 2 speeds , gotten a real nice trip and had a good shot at winning or at least running well in this race .. definitely be looking out for his next start

looking at the pp's of the winner ,to ship all the way here from palm meadows off what he'd done the connections must've thought a lot of him and I think that's an excellent angle to consider when capping ..honestly not something I thought about with him going into the race but it'll be on my radar more going forward

I agree with all your takes JBEX. I think you are seeing things well. Or, if you are wrong, so am I. Lolol.

[str]

Checking in from boa town- hope all is well in Pimlico country str

Wonderful to hear from you sir ! All is well here B12 . Not so sure about Pimlico though. Haha. This place has been pretty quiet lately. Real glad to see you check in. I hope all is well with you. Happy Easter Sunday to you and everyone.

[BOA12]

After that irritating and frustrating meeting with Md. high ups, I have licked my wounds, energized my pride and have decided to take this National so enough people can see it for what it should be and not have singular agendas . I’m not mad at anyone in Md. I am disappointed though. It was one thing to be in my 20s and 30s training horses and not having a true understanding of how the world works. But I’m 71 and they are all older than me so no excuses in my book.

I’m planning on going to Saratoga in June or July , probably before the meet to visit the Dutrow family as well as other friends. I am going to work for an opportunity to speak with some people up there that truly get it. We will keep our fingers crossed that I can shed light on a situation that should not exist.
Again I I’ll say that , no trainer, no jockey and no owner wins a single race without the hard work of all involved. It’s high time they are recognized for who they are and the contributions they make to the game. I’m going to give it my best shot. That’s my next step. We will know soon enough.

A working class hero is hard to find is a famous line.

Nice to see a true horse/people lover brother, the Best Of All fountain of youth- that's God's Honest Truth.

Just noticed your join date is my birthday.

[JBEX]

hey str

thought you might find this interesting.. iron honor the ml favorite in the wood memorial traveling a very similar path to this race as deterministic did 2 years ago .. believe DM got out bad and rushed up and finished out of the money .. you thought he might have came out of the left stirrup and was out of it mentally by the time he hit the first turn (or something like that if I remember correctly) IH won the Gotham last out and broke his maiden first out in the start before that .. has to break from the 13 post today so that adds something extra to the challenge .. first turn comes up very quick there also .. be interesting to see how he handles it

he was done entering the 1st turn (relative to having anything left at the end) because of the 10 who in my opinion had little chance in this race .. I have a hunch if not interfered with IH might've been able to settle in behind the 2 speeds , gotten a real nice trip and had a good shot at winning or at least running well in this race .. definitely be looking out for his next start

looking at the pp's of the winner ,to ship all the way here from palm meadows off what he'd done the connections must've thought a lot of him and I think that's an excellent angle to consider when capping ..honestly not something I thought about with him going into the race but it'll be on my radar more going forward

[batt33]

After that irritating and frustrating meeting with Md. high ups, I have licked my wounds, energized my pride and have decided to take this National so enough people can see it for what it should be and not have singular agendas . I’m not mad at anyone in Md. I am disappointed though. It was one thing to be in my 20s and 30s training horses and not having a true understanding of how the world works. But I’m 71 and they are all older than me so no excuses in my book.

I’m planning on going to Saratoga in June or July , probably before the meet to visit the Dutrow family as well as other friends. I am going to work for an opportunity to speak with some people up there that truly get it. We will keep our fingers crossed that I can shed light on a situation that should not exist.
Again I I’ll say that , no trainer, no jockey and no owner wins a single race without the hard work of all involved. It’s high time they are recognized for who they are and the contributions they make to the game. I’m going to give it my best shot. That’s my next step. We will know soon enough.

Props for taking this on STR! Hopefully at Saratoga you can gain some backing with the bigger names and influential people in the horse racing industry.

[BOA12]

Checking in from boa town- hope all is well in Pimlico country str

[JBEX]

hey str

thought you might find this interesting.. iron honor the ml favorite in the wood memorial traveling a very similar path to this race as deterministic did 2 years ago .. believe DM got out bad and rushed up and finished out of the money .. you thought he might have came out of the left stirrup and was out of it mentally by the time he hit the first turn (or something like that if I remember correctly) IH won the Gotham last out and broke his maiden first out in the start before that .. has to break from the 13 post today so that adds something extra to the challenge .. first turn comes up very quick there also .. be interesting to see how he handles it

[str]

It has to be so so frustrating STR.. Keep fighting for the "heros " on the backstretch... They know they have someone who cares speaking up for them. Batt,

After that irritating and frustrating meeting with Md. high ups, I have licked my wounds, energized my pride and have decided to take this National so enough people can see it for what it should be and not have singular agendas . I’m not mad at anyone in Md. I am disappointed though. It was one thing to be in my 20s and 30s training horses and not having a true understanding of how the world works. But I’m 71 and they are all older than me so no excuses in my book.

I’m planning on going to Saratoga in June or July , probably before the meet to visit the Dutrow family as well as other friends. I am going to work for an opportunity to speak with some people up there that truly get it. We will keep our fingers crossed that I can shed light on a situation that should not exist.
Again I I’ll say that , no trainer, no jockey and no owner wins a single race without the hard work of all involved. It’s high time they are recognized for who they are and the contributions they make to the game. I’m going to give it my best shot. That’s my next step. We will know soon enough.

[str]

oaklawn race 10 9 horse in the gate at 3-1... goes off at 3/2... played the 9 of course.... computer stuff has to stop... even the announcers made the comment...

In a game that is on life support at most tracks, management allowing this stuff to continue is them deciding on a long slow death or... make things fair and hope the result is not the same.
Nobody enjoys being ripped off and these late plunges in prices indicate to all bettors, that others have more of a chance than they do. The attitude of " even when we win, we lose", kills all feelings of enjoyment over time.

The tracks are in serious trouble. Greed will get you every time.

[batt33]

had to mention and a pick .. nice betting race

gulfstream 11 (4:40)
army mule stakes (listed) @ 7f
3 scotland (9-2)

I was hoping for an "army mule" in the Army Mule!
I like the 3 ,4,8,

[JBEX]

had to mention and a pick .. nice betting race

gulfstream 11 (4:40)
army mule stakes (listed) @ 7f
3 scotland (9-2)

[batt33]

oaklawn race 10 9 horse in the gate at 3-1... goes off at 3/2... played the 9 of course.... computer stuff has to stop... even the announcers made the comment...

[str]

two slight things I noticed with saving heart and by no means was he going to win this race ..

saw the jock use the whip on him at least twice (while I could see the close-up) in the first furlong

looked like when the eventual winner shifted paths,came out a bit and passed SH on the inside it might have caused him to switch back to his left lead

Can’t Win doing that. If the horse is thinking which it must have been, then it is not focused on running. It’s a fine line between focus and distraction. The focus of the horse has to be the mental discussion it haves with the rider.

[JBEX]

I thought saving heart was in the right spot along the backstretch but just didn't have it turning for home


the private Debbie race.... as STR has said plenty of times ... she wasted alot of energy early...

Missed the last two

two slight things I noticed with saving heart and by no means was he going to win this race ..

saw the jock use the whip on him at least twice (while I could see the close-up) in the first furlong

looked like when the eventual winner shifted paths,came out a bit and passed SH on the inside it might have caused him to switch back to his left lead

[batt33]

copy and pasted from my thread minus the other picks I made



oaklawn 1 (1:30)
7 saving heart (5-2) army mule
out [1-1]



oaklawn 3 (2:34)
7 private debbie (20-1) army mule
out [13-1]
extremely rank early part of the race



oaklawn 7 (4:45)
9 army's marauder (4-1) army mule
3rd/7 [9-2]

oaklawn 8 .. feature stakes
7 soldier n diplomat (8-1) army mule
2nd/4 [9-5]

thought this and the previous race both of them didn't have the sharpest starts .. essential in the 4 horse field (R8) with baffert on the rail with a speed horse @ 2-5..broke a little tardy in his last race also so possibly a bit of an issue for him .. think this race is an aberration .. interesting to see what the next move will be

I thought saving heart was in the right spot along the backstretch but just didn't have it turning for home


the private Debbie race.... as STR has said plenty of times ... she wasted alot of energy early...

Missed the last two

[JBEX]

copy and pasted from my thread minus the other picks I made



oaklawn 1 (1:30)
7 saving heart (5-2) army mule
out [1-1]



oaklawn 3 (2:34)
7 private debbie (20-1) army mule
out [13-1]
extremely rank early part of the race



oaklawn 7 (4:45)
9 army's marauder (4-1) army mule
3rd/7 [9-2]

oaklawn 8 .. feature stakes
7 soldier n diplomat (8-1) army mule
2nd/4 [9-5]

thought this and the previous race both of them didn't have the sharpest starts .. essential in the 4 horse field (R8) with baffert on the rail with a speed horse @ 2-5..broke a little tardy in his last race also so possibly a bit of an issue for him .. think this race is an aberration .. interesting to see what the next move will be