Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

In a discussion about the Preakness and the no change or penalty in the finish or to any riders I had this back and forth with someone. I thought I would share it for you all to see.




Him: Yes, the people who bet on him should get screwed, but it wasn't unnecessarily. It should be because the horse/rider broke the rules.

You shouldn't adjust the outcome based on the bettors. Why have rules?

So you can cheat?


ME: If the penalty was to be issued, why involve the betting public when the horse to be put up was clearly beaten?

It wasn't like those others involved were going to catch the eventual 2nd place horse. So DQ' ing the horse does exactly what? Obviously the horse was the best horse in the race.

Give the rider days but don't DQ a horse that was clearly best and put others up that clearly were not.

Don't screw the public. Give the rider days . That's my take.



Him: Its a little thing called consistency. Either you have rules or you don't.


Me. Being consistently wrong is ridiculous. Rules can be seen and judged with different interpretations and penalties. There is no reason to DQ the horse .
He was the winner and no other horse was going to win that race on its own effort ,bump or no bump.

Penalize the guilty party, in this case, the rider.
Just because a rule has been judged a certain way for years doesn’t mean it was judged as well as it could have been. That’s how I see it.



Me following up :

I thought I would add something to this:

For many a decade before I was born and the number of decades I have lived, horse racing rarely took into consideration the people that make all this work. The customer.

Many a rule was made to police and regulate the game but do any of those rules recognize and consider the fans, who without them there would be no revenue to allow the game to function? The answer is very close to, if not , No.

Consistency is needed in all sports for understanding the rules but horse racing better recognize those that support it in a hurry.

I spent my entire career stabled in Md. I ran out of town sometimes but not too often. I left the game for reasons not pertinent to this story but since leaving I have been able to clearly see where racing had and in certain circumstances still does fail the customer. Maybe being a little inconsistent and changing the narrative somewhat is what is required to help recognize that you don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
Just my opinion.



Question for everyone:

Wouldn't you guys be all for this? Please let me know if you think I am missing something.

Thanks

realize this is a side point but as many times as I watch the replay I don't understand what rispoli did wrong ..to me his postion was established between the 1 and the 8 .. former bore in , journalism was in tight quarters and the chain reaction affected the 8.. around 4:15 of the NBC sports replay on you tube is the best view of it (head-on) imo

[str]

Guy won like it was a morning breeze. ML 5/2? Off 1-1.

Quality horses usually do not “ need” a race to be fit enough to win. Especially if they have shown an ability to win with time off previously or win as a first time starter.
Combine that with the trainers stats off 90+ days and that usually provides the answers.
Good eye Madison.

[Madison]

Str, or others, would appreciate thoughts on Tip Top Thomas today. BEL R3 #4.

Seems to me I've seen him more than 3 times. Last was his first since 10/24/24.

You might notice a few familiar names in his prior starts as well.

Kind of how I handicap (by sight) but watch his first start 8/24/24. Watch the run from the horse that ran 4th. You may remember him. I added him to my stable that day as one to watch as he matured and the races got longer. Watch the head down drive in the last eighth or so.

Guy won like it was a morning breeze. ML 5/2? Off 1-1.

[Madison]

Thank you Str. Lifes winding road is surely fascinating.

[str]

Str, you are incredibly well spoken for a person who spent a large portion of their life in a barn. Where were you educated?

Also, the volume of your typing. Personally, I failed typing despite being top of my class and circa mensa. How can you pen so much thought?

Wishing you and yours a great holiday weekend.

Gotta go now and see if I can dredge up a winner. LOL.

With the assassination of Martin Luther King in 1968, the D.C. public school system was a train wreck with overreaction and mistakes made within. Politics suggested that busing the African American kids from NE or SE to NW Wash DC which was predominantly white was a way of showing everyone there was no prejudice in Wash. DC. Of course there was a ton of prejudice there but that's a story for another day that I can share if someone wants to know about it.

It was a political stunt to try and quell the riots that were taking place in Wash. DC. Only 13-14 at the time, I had no clue what was up. But because of this, and my father being born and raised in Mississippi, and was inherently prejudice through what he was told and taught.( All that is code for poorly educated and from deep poverty.), he allowed me to transfer to a private school.
(His father died when he was 5 years old from the Spanish Flu in 1919 so I do cut my dad plenty of slack for his upbringing.)

All that said, my dad got pissed about what was going on and I had friends that were planning on going as freshmen to a private school 2 blocks from the US Capital. So, I asked if I could and my parents said yes. That high school was an all boys school named Gonzaga College High School. Renowned as one of the top schools in the Washington area, that is where I went. I guess I owe the priests, brothers, and laymen that taught there a big thank you for 4 years of putting up with my " got to be on the spectrum somewhere" butt.

By that I mean, I was all in on anything I decided I wanted to do. ALL IN. First was baseball. Then came horse racing . When I left that game, I became a home builder. Main reason for it helping me in the building business was that I could not and still cannot drive a nail without hitting the board more than I hit the nail. Lol.
But what I did do, was apply what I did know about business, people, employees, and of course math. Good ole math, the tool that's never wrong .
So even though I fell out with my varsity baseball coach after playing for him in my freshman year as a starting pitcher and walked away from the game and left two college offers behind at the age of 15, I found horse racing, went all in as I do, and the rest is history Madison.

Fast forward 10,years and I was lucky enough to become the first horse trainer not named Dutrow, Delp or Leatherbury to win a leading training title in the last 10 years at Bowie Race Course at the ripe old age of 25 years old. Pretty sure that is the youngest age to ever win a training title in Md.

Long story long, if I really liked something, I poured everything into it. Guess that's why this thread is still going after 14 years.

All the best Madison. And...Top of the class !! WOW, I mean...All the best SIR.

[JBEX]

army mule ..monday



mth 3 @ 1:54
#6 mission first (15-1)



churchill 5 @ 2:45
#8 hope restored (4-1)



baq 5 @ 3:06
#6 ferris muler (15-1)




lone star 11 @ 7:37
#4 us army (20-1)

I like "mission first" (factoring value) the best of the 4 ..in the baq race can't see that one at all but I think #1 stormy birthday (15-1) is interesting at a price

[JBEX]

army mule ..monday



mth 3 @ 1:54
#6 mission first (15-1)



churchill 5 @ 2:45
#8 hope restored (4-1)



baq 5 @ 3:06
#6 ferris muler (15-1)




lone star 11 @ 7:37
#4 us army (20-1)

[JBEX]

he certainly did a great job with deterministic along with countless others .. one of the best in his profession in my opinion and passed way too young .. will be missed

[Madison]

59. Oh my, hopefully a typo. Feeling older and older.

Seems like he lived a wonderful life, unfortunately way to short.

[str]

It is with a heavy heart that I tell everyone that Christophe Clement has passed away at the age of 59.
I am stunned. I only met him once about 11 years ago but that was all it took to realize what a talented and special human being he was.
Wow. What terrible news.
Some people we meet just have “ it”. He was one of those few.
My deepest condolences to his family and friends.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/trainer-christophe-clement-passes-at-59/

[str]

I’m sorry Madison, I am unable to look at your inquiry today.
I thank you for the kind words and will respond soon

[Madison]

Str, or others, would appreciate thoughts on Tip Top Thomas today. BEL R3 #4.

Seems to me I've seen him more than 3 times. Last was his first since 10/24/24.

You might notice a few familiar names in his prior starts as well.

Kind of how I handicap (by sight) but watch his first start 8/24/24. Watch the run from the horse that ran 4th. You may remember him. I added him to my stable that day as one to watch as he matured and the races got longer. Watch the head down drive in the last eighth or so.

[Madison]

Str, you are incredibly well spoken for a person who spent a large portion of their life in a barn. Where were you educated?

Also, the volume of your typing. Personally, I failed typing despite being top of my class and circa mensa. How can you pen so much thought?

Wishing you and yours a great holiday weekend.

Gotta go now and see if I can dredge up a winner. LOL.

[str]

In a discussion about the Preakness and the no change or penalty in the finish or to any riders I had this back and forth with someone. I thought I would share it for you all to see.




Him: Yes, the people who bet on him should get screwed, but it wasn't unnecessarily. It should be because the horse/rider broke the rules.

You shouldn't adjust the outcome based on the bettors. Why have rules?

So you can cheat?


ME: If the penalty was to be issued, why involve the betting public when the horse to be put up was clearly beaten?

It wasn't like those others involved were going to catch the eventual 2nd place horse. So DQ' ing the horse does exactly what? Obviously the horse was the best horse in the race.

Give the rider days but don't DQ a horse that was clearly best and put others up that clearly were not.

Don't screw the public. Give the rider days . That's my take.



Him: Its a little thing called consistency. Either you have rules or you don't.


Me. Being consistently wrong is ridiculous. Rules can be seen and judged with different interpretations and penalties. There is no reason to DQ the horse .
He was the winner and no other horse was going to win that race on its own effort ,bump or no bump.

Penalize the guilty party, in this case, the rider.
Just because a rule has been judged a certain way for years doesn’t mean it was judged as well as it could have been. That’s how I see it.



Me following up :

I thought I would add something to this:

For many a decade before I was born and the number of decades I have lived, horse racing rarely took into consideration the people that make all this work. The customer.

Many a rule was made to police and regulate the game but do any of those rules recognize and consider the fans, who without them there would be no revenue to allow the game to function? The answer is very close to, if not , No.

Consistency is needed in all sports for understanding the rules but horse racing better recognize those that support it in a hurry.

I spent my entire career stabled in Md. I ran out of town sometimes but not too often. I left the game for reasons not pertinent to this story but since leaving I have been able to clearly see where racing had and in certain circumstances still does fail the customer. Maybe being a little inconsistent and changing the narrative somewhat is what is required to help recognize that you don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
Just my opinion.



Question for everyone:

Wouldn't you guys be all for this? Please let me know if you think I am missing something.

Thanks

[str]

So my last thoughts on the Preakness are as follows.

Should there have been a DQ in the race ? My opinion is No.
Should any riders have been asked to review the films with the Stewards. In my opinion , Yes. The winning rider should have been asked to explain what happened. Unless he told me something I have not considered, I would have given him days for that incident.
Reason being, this time next year when the riders show up to ride in the Preakness, they will show up with the mindset that what took place in that race is Ok. It is Not ! But what else are they supposed to think if there was no problem with what happened?
Riders are like little kids when it comes to this stuff. Behind closed doors most would admit that.

It is not impossible to fix this however and Adam , the chief steward knows exactly how to deal with this. I would bet a nice chunk that he goes to the jocks room before the races start next Preakness day and warn all the riders that what happened last year will not be tolerated moving forward. Adam actually did that a few years ago after an incident in the Derby and it worked. I would love to have a bet on if he does it next year. If he drops by the reunion next year in April, like he did this year, I’ll ask him.
He is a sharp guy and he does get it.

That’s my take.

[JBEX]

agree with you on both horses str ..if WG could get 2nd or 3rd would be very impressed with the quality of this field

or maybe should be viewed in a different way ..we like AM to exceed pp expectations,did win at this track as a 2yo and finished 2nd at this level at kee 2 back .. not the most ridiculous thing by any means .. would feel better about it if she was rested instead of going to ny and returning in 2 weeks

[JBEX]

Shewontbudge looks like she fits in that race. I can't say I really like her but you know she will be trying.

And poor Wisconsin Gal.
You know she will give her all. Now if her trainer only had something to give when it comes to choosing races, things would be just fine. And if it is the owner choosing the races, , shame on that trainer for tolerating it.
I guess another blood and guts 5th for her today?

agree with you on both horses str ..if WG could get 2nd or 3rd would be very impressed with the quality of this field

[str]

army mule saturday



churchill 1 @ 12:45
#6 shewontbudge (7-2)


churchill 7 @ 3:50
#1 wisconsin gal (15-1)





.

Shewontbudge looks like she fits in that race. I can't say I really like her but you know she will be trying.

And poor Wisconsin Gal.
You know she will give her all. Now if her trainer only had something to give when it comes to choosing races, things would be just fine. And if it is the owner choosing the races, , shame on that trainer for tolerating it.
I guess another blood and guts 5th for her today?

[JBEX]

army mule saturday



churchill 1 @ 12:45
#6 shewontbudge (7-2)


churchill 7 @ 3:50
#1 wisconsin gal (15-1)





.

[JBEX]

so if we go by about 1.5 secs or 7 lengths then you would add 11 points to his 98 beyer giving him a very respectable 109 ..if you factor in cruising to the wire way in front that might lower it to 106-107 ..he ran a 108 in the santa anita derby so that falls in line nicely with this adjusted effort .. these are very solid figures for a 3yo at this stage

think this is too generous .. 4 +/- more like it to me

[Snowball]

Did you folks see Michael Buffer at the Preakness? IMO, about 2 sentences of him is awesome. But several minutes seemed painful.
I don’t know you guys. I’m really worried about Md. racing as we move forward. I will get to discuss this with a new friend I made who is the chairman of the racing commission fairly soon.
A very knowledgeable man who has been in racing for a long time. I’m hopeful for success but have to admit I am nervous about the future. I do know he will do everything he can to keep it viable.

Im not from the area, but I was disappointed to hear that they will be consolidating Laurel and Pimlico into the new Pimlico only.
I don't think the problem has anything to do with horse racing per se. It has to do with lack of "affordable housing", and the real estate values of where these tracks around the country are located, especially those in residential areas. The astronomical real estate values make it very tempting to cash out rather than commit land for tracks. Plus, there's the older (still only a couple decades) problem of casinos taking over where both horse and dog tracks used to be.

The way things are today, it is more possible than ever to bet online and use all the information and video feed which an OTB provides. Of course, it's not the same as being there, but for the vast number of casuals, unless the wife or buddies want to go, you're (our) desires as active handicappers can feel like solo endeavors. Anyway, it is good to see some younger interest in the sport, and I expect this to stay good, but the physical imprint of tracks probably isn't going to grow, maybe ever. I'm thankful that Fanduel supports the industry and I hope that doesn't change. I have come to rely on their channel (formerly TVG) for live races (better than watching a computer screen), and also FS2 has been contributing, but they have more commercial interruptions.

[JBEX]

army mule

finger lakes 6 @ 3:25
#8 trojan mule (8-1)

[mrginandtonic]

Hi Mr. GandT ! Great to see you in here.

The main takeaway here is that everyday , normal, average riders cannot do what the top 1% can. That is no knock, it is just the very best of the best is what I mean. I fully expected what occurred to happen when the winning rider decided to stay inside. With those top riders, you just do not get the holes the way you do with everyday riding. He did however take it one step to far. The analysis from Jerry Bailey was spot on. It was just the last move that went too far. Up until then, it was fair game.
You do not see that very often on a normal day at a normal track. There is almost always room to get through on the fence in day to day races. But not the best of the best, and not in Grade 1's for sure.

Did you hear the name drop by Mike Tirico when he mentioned the head Stewart Adam Campola when talking about the incident. Adam is an old friend of mine. He galloped horses for me way back in the day and has made a career out of the track and climbed to the top as the head Stewart. Really nice, classy guy. Good for him!

Thank you very much for your insight. Much appreciated. What he did just reminded me of Maximum Security when he was disqualified from the Derby win. If I had to bet it over again, I still would have picked Journalism for the Derby. I think he was the best horse; I just think that Rispoli may have moved a little too soon. If he goes to Belmont, my money will be on him again. He is the best horse for 1 1/4 (not sure if it was actually run at 1 1/2).

So glad to hear that your friend has moved up the ladder. It is a tough game, but if you are really passionated. You will succeed. Kudos to your friend and best wishes.

Talk again soon, take care and lets have fun at the races.

[JBEX]

Did you folks see Michael Buffer at the Preakness? IMO, about 2 sentences of him is awesome. But several minutes seemed painful.
I don’t know you guys. I’m really worried about Md. racing as we move forward. I will get to discuss this with a new friend I made who is the chairman of the racing commission fairly soon.
A very knowledgeable man who has been in racing for a long time. I’m hopeful for success but have to admit I am nervous about the future. I do know he will do everything he can to keep it viable.

agree..too long for his voice

[str]

Did you folks see Michael Buffer at the Preakness? IMO, about 2 sentences of him is awesome. But several minutes seemed painful.
I don’t know you guys. I’m really worried about Md. racing as we move forward. I will get to discuss this with a new friend I made who is the chairman of the racing commission fairly soon.
A very knowledgeable man who has been in racing for a long time. I’m hopeful for success but have to admit I am nervous about the future. I do know he will do everything he can to keep it viable.

[str]

one other thing I think is worth considering regarding journalism's path forward.. with them running the belmont at saratoga (if they decide to run him) at the travers distance,assuming he wins or runs well in losing,to me that's less incentive to come back and try the travers..been there,done that kind of thing..back to home base and gear up for the breeders cup at del mar running his preps there which ,as I mentioned before, I think would be the san diego and pacific classic

I would agree with that. Makes sense

[JBEX]

one other thing I think is worth considering regarding journalism's path forward.. with them running the belmont at saratoga (if they decide to run him) at the travers distance,assuming he wins or runs well in losing,to me that's less incentive to come back and try the travers..been there,done that kind of thing..back to home base and gear up for the breeders cup at del mar running his preps there which ,as I mentioned before, I think would be the san diego and pacific classic

[JBEX]

I suppose that sounds right, but you have to factor in that if he was two or three in front inside the eight pole, he would not have been pushed that last eighth as hard, and therefore most likely would have slowed down at least some.

so if we go by about 1.5 secs or 7 lengths then you would add 11 points to his 98 beyer giving him a very respectable 109 ..if you factor in cruising to the wire way in front that might lower it to 106-107 ..he ran a 108 in the santa anita derby so that falls in line nicely with this adjusted effort .. these are very solid figures for a 3yo at this stage

[str]

The way journalism won yesterday was something else. We’ll see the path they take with this horse, but something special might be brewing with this one.

Yes jelly, I agree. I am wondering, though, if some of that gap was closed because the leader was out of gas, having never been that distance before. I want to look at those fractions a little harder and see how slow the leader finished. I’ll try to get to that tomorrow. I do want to remember to do that.

[str]

also what would you guess journalism's trouble cost him in time ? mine would be about 1.5 seconds

I suppose that sounds right, but you have to factor in that if he was two or three in front inside the eight pole, he would not have been pushed that last eighth as hard, and therefore most likely would have slowed down at least some.

[str]

hey str

if you happened to see my thread aqu 6 had two 2nd time starters ,one by frankel and the other by dubawi..the frankel a 4yo gelding and dubawi 3yo colt.. my thought is if you spend $400k + to breed to him you don't want the horse to be a gelding in his 1st start .. that much money you want to have some chance at having him be a stallion..I understand that it really has to happen for some to be effective runners

then I was thinking this..if you can afford to shell out that kind of money on a stallion it's probably (nah definitely) something you are comfortably able to do .. doesn't work out not going to effect your overall finances and the consolation prize is you might have a horse who has a better than avg chance to earn a significant amount of money ..so I feel in general it's not as bad a thing as I have made it out to be ..do you think a horse from either of these 2 sires or one of our elite 4 has just as good a chance to be a top runner if he starts off or within his first few starts is gelded ?

You can bet that they really did not want to have to geld that horse. Sounds to me like he was probably a very heavy horse that had difficulty trimming down. Now compound that with leg problems and they likely Decided that there was no way he would make the races without dropping 150 pounds or so. They did not want to guild him without running him. What circumstance is most likely left them no choice.

They probably just figured let’s try to win some races with him, knowing that he had no chance to do that staying a Colt.

[str]

You are tough my friend. "pretty good horse". That was some performance yesterday!!

Thanks Madison.

[JBEX]

army mule

horseshoe 2 @ 2:41

#2 lalily (9-2)

.

[JBEX]

The way journalism won yesterday was something else. We’ll see the path they take with this horse, but something special might be brewing with this one.

agree jelly ..with what he cost and being by curlin I think there's an extremely high ceiling for how good he can be ..possibly even better things to come

[Jellymancan]

The way journalism won yesterday was something else. We’ll see the path they take with this horse, but something special might be brewing with this one.