Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

26 months old and runs that professionally?

Two turns, turf, the crowd and announcer noise, the camera flashes... It's incredible.

absolutely.. maybe we'll see him final week at saratoga when the lone 2 turn turf stakes for 2yo's goes ..be an interesting follow the rest of the year

[str]

wasn't thinking about the foaling month which as you said adds more to it.. was bet very well also for a big venue track and I've noticed over at least the last few months that they seem to be in general..have heard at least 3 mentions on televised media this year that they like army mule as a sire including joe bravo last week on the fox show ..I'd say it's definitely not a secret anymore although to the general betting public (and that's not unimportant) it probably still is to a degree

26 months old and runs that professionally?

Two turns, turf, the crowd and announcer noise, the camera flashes... It's incredible.

[JBEX]

I sure did !!

And I don't care about the time. Probably hard as a rock.

But from the mental side of things...A monster effort. An April foal, in June, two turns and turf for it's 1st start and runs like a seasoned 5 year old. Easy win, extremely professional, and never set down all the way. Unbelievable JBEX.
The horse that finished 2nd ran extremely well. This one though, It's hard to put that into words. That was ridiculous.

wasn't thinking about the foaling month which as you said adds more to it.. was bet very well also for a big venue track and I've noticed over at least the last few months that they seem to be in general..have heard at least 3 mentions on televised media this year that they like army mule as a sire including joe bravo last week on the fox show ..I'd say it's definitely not a secret anymore although to the general betting public (and that's not unimportant) it probably still is to a degree

[str]

hey str

did you happen to catch the gulfstream race ? what a professional race for a 2 year old going 2 turns on the grass first time out in june ! time was 2 seconds of the track record so it must've been extremely hard surface..have to think he might turn into something good down the road

I sure did !!

And I don't care about the time. Probably hard as a rock.

But from the mental side of things...A monster effort. An April foal, in June, two turns and turf for it's 1st start and runs like a seasoned 5 year old. Easy win, extremely professional, and never set down all the way. Unbelievable JBEX.
The horse that finished 2nd ran extremely well. This one though, It's hard to put that into words. That was ridiculous.

[JBEX]

hey str

did you happen to catch the gulfstream race ? what a professional race for a 2 year old going 2 turns on the grass first time out in june ! time was 2 seconds of the track record so it must've been extremely hard surface..have to think he might turn into something good down the road

[str]

Looked at all 3 horses.

This one kind of jumps off the page.

I would have to consider this one a lot.

Just love the box here. Last one in, first one out? Good chance for that.

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut[/QUOTE]

I have not seen the replay yet. This horse finished 2nd. The winner, another first time starter was obviously the better horse. The chart does show that this Army Mule broke on top and ran great , simply losing to a better horse.
The takeaway though is, there was about a 70% +/- chance that this AM was going to load last and break 1st with the box ( outside post with a good run to the turn), in this spot. That is exactly what happened according to the charts. I will watch the replay, but here is the takeaway from that.

We knew there was an above average chance that this AM would load last and break first. That DID happen. Was that an edge most people did not know? Yes. So while this horse was 2nd best, we had an edge. That folks, is all you can ask for in a game of chance that betting horses is. This was a solid play.
Limit your plays to having an edge and you will be plus in the end most likely. It takes discipline, understanding situations, and the will to not play just to play.
OK, want to play to have action, fine, maybe a very reduced amount, but keep the edge plays consistently higher. Keep score. This can and will work.

[JBEX]

lone star unless you have RTN best you can do is a replay the following day..no tvg

[JBEX]

double l's army is #9..forgot in intial post

[Easy-Rider 66]

Well, yeah, too bad.

But, from the handicappers mental state, it has to feel good that you analyzed that race, identified the speed, the pace was slowed as best she could, and your horse ran great at 13-1 . Very well done EZ !

Confidence is as important as execution .

Gauge your ability now vs. a few years ago. Understand what you see now that you did not see then.

That tough beat should propel you forward. You can't win them all, but finding gems like that take more than luck.

Keep up the great work.

THX for the good words sir.

[JBEX]

I cannot think of another stallion where I see the offspring and instead of handicapping the race to see if it can win, I look through the race to see if it can lose. I've never seen anything like that before. OK, maybe Hoist The Flag way back in the day.

I had an extremely sentimental connection with him .

i remember going back to the 80's or 90's (former early for me with capping ) that hoist the flag was considered a top broodmare sire..one of the only one's I recognized for that outside of buckpasser

Looked at all 3 horses.

This one kind of jumps off the page.

I would have to consider this one a lot.

Just love the box here. Last one in, first one out? Good chance for that.

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut

good to see the 2yo's starting to show up and started off with a bang with pinky finger who looks like he might become something special ..at lone star a sire like army mule Is definitely above avg for that level of track..the two veterans at mth and baq definitely have a decent shot imo

[str]

THX STR. Nothing in particular just wanted your opinion. I had a friend drop $10 to win on the #2 for me so a tough beat here. THX

Well, yeah, too bad.

But, from the handicappers mental state, it has to feel good that you analyzed that race, identified the speed, the pace was slowed as best she could, and your horse ran great at 13-1 . Very well done EZ !

Confidence is as important as execution .

Gauge your ability now vs. a few years ago. Understand what you see now that you did not see then.

That tough beat should propel you forward. You can't win them all, but finding gems like that take more than luck.

Keep up the great work.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Great to see you EZ !

I would have no complaints at all with her ride EZ. Without knowing the horse or instructions, she rode away, made sure she would be in front, and got the horse to relax in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters with 24's. They finished up in 24, so they were running right along.

If you are concerned about giving up the rail, it's a bit different when you pass a chute on the grass as you cannot get too cute with that or your horse is given the opportunity to do something stupid and duck inwards when the rail disappears crossing that chute.

In hindsight, just as she looked and continued to ask a bit in that first 1/4 mile, she was making sure the 4 would not get head and head with her, just after she glanced, the rider on the 4 conceded the lead to her. Had she been able to settle her horse going by the wire that MIGHT have helped, but honestly, that is unfair to say because if she allows that horse to rush up and be head and head, she has thrown away an opportunity. So, it would be a bit cold of me to bring that up. That would be incredibly picky on my part I think.

All and all, I would have no complaints EZ.

Did you have something you saw that you were not sure of ?

THX STR. Nothing in particular just wanted your opinion. I had a friend drop $10 to win on the #2 for me so a tough beat here. THX

[str]

Looked at all 3 horses.

This one kind of jumps off the page.

I would have to consider this one a lot.

Just love the box here. Last one in, first one out? Good chance for that.

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut

[str]

Hey STR: the race is BAQ R10. the horse is the #2 Kid Kreesa. sent off at 13/1. Got nailed at the wire by the fav. If you get a chance watch the replay. Any critique Of Katie Davis ride good or bad is appreciated. THX in advance.

Great to see you EZ !

I would have no complaints at all with her ride EZ. Without knowing the horse or instructions, she rode away, made sure she would be in front, and got the horse to relax in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters with 24's. They finished up in 24, so they were running right along.

If you are concerned about giving up the rail, it's a bit different when you pass a chute on the grass as you cannot get too cute with that or your horse is given the opportunity to do something stupid and duck inwards when the rail disappears crossing that chute.

In hindsight, just as she looked and continued to ask a bit in that first 1/4 mile, she was making sure the 4 would not get head and head with her, just after she glanced, the rider on the 4 conceded the lead to her. Had she been able to settle her horse going by the wire that MIGHT have helped, but honestly, that is unfair to say because if she allows that horse to rush up and be head and head, she has thrown away an opportunity. So, it would be a bit cold of me to bring that up. That would be incredibly picky on my part I think.

All and all, I would have no complaints EZ.

Did you have something you saw that you were not sure of ?

[str]

guess you might have seen he was scratched.. I think overall for me I would take an aggressive stance playing his horses..if it's in the ballpark go with it .. I realize ITB is a subjective thing and everybody has a least a slightly different view of it on any particular horse

I cannot think of another stallion where I see the offspring and instead of handicapping the race to see if it can win, I look through the race to see if it can lose. I've never seen anything like that before. OK, maybe Hoist The Flag way back in the day.

I had an extremely sentimental connection with him .

[JBEX]

added baq 7

[JBEX]

army mule ..sunday




gulfstream 2 @ 1:24
#5 you mule (8-1) 2yo debut


mth 5 @ 2:50
#4 molly's a bullet (10-1)

baq 7 @ 3:38
#2 forward move (10-1)


lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut



.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: the race is BAQ R10. the horse is the #2 Kid Kreesa. sent off at 13/1. Got nailed at the wire by the fav. If you get a chance watch the replay. Any critique Of Katie Davis ride good or bad is appreciated. THX in advance.

[JBEX]

I assumed that the Oaklawn race would be a nicer spot and the race seemed impressive. Going on memory now but I thought I saw some others that were in real good form and while i usually consider Oaklawn as a stronger circuit than quite a few, that race was a starter race??? Something like that. And I wondered if maybe it came up a little light??? Wish I had it in front of me but I don’t.
Either way, he will be tough. Just thought others would be as well

guess you might have seen he was scratched.. I think overall for me I would take an aggressive stance playing his horses..if it's in the ballpark go with it .. I realize ITB is a subjective thing and everybody has a least a slightly different view of it on any particular horse

[str]

I like that he's coming from oaklawn (tough horses),close to a very fast pace and that condition I believe is tougher ..it was an optional claimer with an allowance condition vs imo something easier here .. a few other things but I won't get long-winded..the above would be the heart of my argument

I assumed that the Oaklawn race would be a nicer spot and the race seemed impressive. Going on memory now but I thought I saw some others that were in real good form and while i usually consider Oaklawn as a stronger circuit than quite a few, that race was a starter race??? Something like that. And I wondered if maybe it came up a little light??? Wish I had it in front of me but I don’t.
Either way, he will be tough. Just thought others would be as well

[JBEX]

Ceepeegee: Oh man, what a cool race this is. These old boys are really solid. Several in here that if they win, not many are surprised. That includes CPG. Some serious hard knockers in here.

So if I am shopping AM's to spot play, this race is all about the odds. On first glance, I would value 7-2 as a bit low, being as 2 or 3 could win other than him. He drifts up to 5 or 6 -1? That is a different story. With 3 legit horses or maybe 4, too me, it's all about the odds and probability. The best bet though? He will try his ass off. No risk in stating that.


No form available for me on the Woodbine horse.

GL everyone.

I like that he's coming from oaklawn (tough horses),close to a very fast pace and that condition I believe is tougher ..it was an optional claimer with an allowance condition vs imo something easier here .. a few other things but I won't get long-winded..the above would be the heart of my argument

[JBEX]

https://youtu.be/vWeBNj7UIlA?si=ZVr9JptRBCzfR35I

[str]

army mule .. saturday

laurel 8 @ 3:31
#1 ceepeegee (7-2)


woodbine 9 @ 5:39
#3 stanley house (10-1)

Ceepeegee: Oh man, what a cool race this is. These old boys are really solid. Several in here that if they win, not many are surprised. That includes CPG. Some serious hard knockers in here.

So if I am shopping AM's to spot play, this race is all about the odds. On first glance, I would value 7-2 as a bit low, being as 2 or 3 could win other than him. He drifts up to 5 or 6 -1? That is a different story. With 3 legit horses or maybe 4, too me, it's all about the odds and probability. The best bet though? He will try his ass off. No risk in stating that.


No form available for me on the Woodbine horse.

GL everyone.

[JBEX]

stephen foster at churchill today which turned out to be kingsbarns final career race last year..really ashame that he couldn't finish out the year as you would agree str he was really finding his groove ..miss not seeing him every few months and hopefully his progeny (few years away from running) will be good ones

[JBEX]

army mule .. saturday

laurel 8 @ 3:31
#1 ceepeegee (7-2)


woodbine 9 @ 5:39
#3 stanley house (10-1)

[str]

with a few exceptions they run twice a week on sun and thur from last week in march through july ..add monday to it august through october and then it goes to harness racing for about 4 months

understand what you're saying about the bias and I guess that could be used the other way also with horses who won on or close to the front

that race (alto rd) still was exceptionally fast considering the class levels that ran @ 6f on the day..while it was for the boys it went faster than a girls optional claimer 40k alw n2 other than or n4L !

I guess that could be used the other way also with horses who won on or close to the front


Absolutely JBEX !!

I just don't want to drive people crazy with an assortment of things to look for.

IMO, This creates two things. More winners and less losers. It is more work but that is what helps transcend good from great sometimes.

[JBEX]

army mule ..friday

churchill 11 @ 5:58
#1 flick (15-1)


don't particularly care for this one although his form is actually very good..step up in class bothers me

as much as i hate going against the army mule's i do really like #2 taylor's version (8-1)..if it was just a modest or above avg opinion I'd pass on it



.

[JBEX]

Opening day I ,assume for Hawthorne. Track superintendent.... Hello ?? No dirt race had any horse that ever laid 4th or worse in the opening call win. Speed was ridiculous.

You guys/girls want winners? Here is how you find them.

Write that day down and going forward, watch for ANY horse that was 4th or worse from yesterday, ON THE DIRT.
OR, go down the charts and write the names down and enter them into your stable watch for alerts when they are entered back.

Handicap each race knowing that the last race for each of them you can draw a line through as the track was totally unfair.

See if they fit into the race they are in next, forgetting about the race yesterday, and play them accordingly. You will be getting odds that are higher than you probably should be getting. And if a trainer drops down off that poor effort on paper, well that is about as close to a gamblers dream as one can get.

Hope some of you do it. There is a very good chance that you'll be glad you did.

Things like that, where you have an edge over the majority of other players, is how you gain a much better percentage chance of winning.

I claimed horses doing that for YEARS. Worked for me. Most likely it will work for you as well.

GL.

with a few exceptions they run twice a week on sun and thur from last week in march through july ..add monday to it august through october and then it goes to harness racing for about 4 months

understand what you're saying about the bias and I guess that could be used the other way also with horses who won on or close to the front

that race (alto rd) still was exceptionally fast considering the class levels that ran @ 6f on the day..while it was for the boys it went faster than a girls optional claimer 40k alw n2 other than or n4L !

[str]

alto road ..how about $4k conditioned claimers going sub 22 .. sub 45 .. sub 1:11 ..2nd by about a length @ 3/5

Opening day I ,assume for Hawthorne. Track superintendent.... Hello ?? No dirt race had any horse that ever laid 4th or worse in the opening call win. Speed was ridiculous.

You guys/girls want winners? Here is how you find them.

Write that day down and going forward, watch for ANY horse that was 4th or worse from yesterday, ON THE DIRT.
OR, go down the charts and write the names down and enter them into your stable watch for alerts when they are entered back.

Handicap each race knowing that the last race for each of them you can draw a line through as the track was totally unfair.

See if they fit into the race they are in next, forgetting about the race yesterday, and play them accordingly. You will be getting odds that are higher than you probably should be getting. And if a trainer drops down off that poor effort on paper, well that is about as close to a gamblers dream as one can get.

Hope some of you do it. There is a very good chance that you'll be glad you did.

Things like that, where you have an edge over the majority of other players, is how you gain a much better percentage chance of winning.

I claimed horses doing that for YEARS. Worked for me. Most likely it will work for you as well.

GL.

[batt33]

I do not keep up with his babies but when I see them I root them home. I noticed his fee dropped to 20K. Was that an industry wide phenomena? I have seen other fees drop also.

hey pigpen! For the most part it's an Industry wide thing......That's where the farm feels he will be competitive vs other stallions at that price range and how the prodigy have performed in the graded stakes level.

Iv'e been told that my horse (sieze the grey) studs,s fee probably will go down next year.... as most first time stallions fees do until the babies start showing up showing and people get a peak at conformation and then of course when they hit the race track.

[JBEX]

alto road ..how about $4k conditioned claimers going sub 22 .. sub 45 .. sub 1:11 ..2nd by about a length @ 3/5

[JBEX]

I do not keep up with his babies but when I see them I root them home. I noticed his fee dropped to 20K. Was that an industry wide phenomena? I have seen other fees drop also.

that's possible pigpen but just speculation as is my guess ..his fee went from $7.5k in 2022 to $12.5k in '23 and then $25k last year..that's a big jump % wise over a short period of time and maybe they felt he'd attract a few more takers at the slightly lower fee

the 2yo's this year will be the last from the $7.5k fee
so a good year with this crop would show a lot imo
..also these were conceived in 2022 which was his first crop of 2yo's so the breeders hadn't seen any of his progeny run and of course he did get a lot of good runners to start off

[JBEX]

I do not keep up with his babies but when I see them I root them home. I noticed his fee dropped to 20K. Was that an industry wide phenomena? I have seen other fees drop also.

have to run out pigpen so I'll answer when I get back

[Pigpen]

I do not keep up with his babies but when I see them I root them home. I noticed his fee dropped to 20K. Was that an industry wide phenomena? I have seen other fees drop also.

[JBEX]

they have joe bravo as a guest with andy and greg on "america's day at the races" and they discuss army mule for a minute or two as he rode him in his final career race at aqueduct the carter stakes ...it starts in the 33 minute mark on the you tube live stream if you want to see it..cool some of the things he reveals