Horse Racing questions and answers

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I don't think a sire CAN be + EV with ALL of their offspring, but what is so cool about this horse (Army Mule), is that he was ultra competitive in his career and he has passed all of that onto his offspring. If you see an Army Mule off the board, you can bet that in 99% of the cases if not all. the effort was there but circumstances, like class, footing, etc. was not. Simply put, they ALL try their guts out which is really rare.
Some sires are so great that just about all of their offspring can run. But, as great as they are ability wise, some are finicky with trips or positioning and throw in dull efforts at times. For instance , Fierceness checks that box. But I have yet to see an Army Mule run a race where there was no try. That is really rare and IMO , that makes every Army Mule entered a horse worth a long look.
Chucky, remember the old sports illustrated covers that had guys like Butkus, Huff, Singletary, or Tittle on his knees at the goal line with blood running down his forehead.
That is what Army Mule horses are. Blood and guts efforts.

I have such a profound respect for that type of horse and Army Mile is the poster sire for those types. It was an honor to be able to train and be around those few with that deep trait. One of my very fondest memories and the ability did not matter. It was what they brought every time, everyday, in everything they did. What they showed me, made ME better.

Hope that makes sense.

Great stuff, str. I once saw a Rick Barry interview. Interviewer made a comment:
"Greatest sire in NBA history = Rick Barry."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Barry#Personal_life

...Rick = only guy to ever have three sons to play in the NBA. Fourth played in Europe.

[JBEX]

Some of the shares or "stud fees" come with the group that has the horse and As long as the prospective mare has the pedigree I'm sure deals are made.
So the owner of a share may say "hey" you can use my share and become a partner in the mare and the offspring or whatever they come up with....

I'm a little confused with this batt and str..I guess if the mare is owned by multiple partners that's an issue also ..but if that's not the case you are saying a couple of possibilities are two seasons with a coin flip or some % split of both or the only foal(s) by the farm and mare owner .. didn't think of it before but now that you linked the secretariat story (which is pretty cool and believe I may have heard at some point) it really does make sense to try two matings..I'm sure a lot of thought and science goes into deciding which elite sire might fit best and then of course they have to be willing to make a deal.. maybe they just land on a $50-100k (or possibly less than that ) stallion but I would think with her race record an elite stallion would be appealing ..how cool would it be for gun runner,justify,into mischief or curlin to be the daddy of her first foal

[str]

hey str

do you think in a situation like this if the owners don't want to spend $150k + for an elite stallion but would like to breed to one a deal could be reached splitting ownership in the resulting foal ?

I saw Batt's response. He is right about what he said.

So deals are made more often than you might think. It can be an equity stake in a foal, It can be two people saying, we breed them 2 years in a row. Flip a coin on who gets year one and year two. All sorts of stuff like that.

BTW, there was a deal like that coin flip years ago .

Check this one out.

https://www.secretariat.com/the-toss-of-a-coin-the-ownership-of-secretariat/

[batt33]

hey str

do you think in a situation like this if the owners don't want to spend $150k + for an elite stallion but would like to breed to one a deal could be reached splitting ownership in the resulting foal ?

Some of the shares or "stud fees" come with the group that has the horse and As long as the prospective mare has the pedigree I'm sure deals are made.
So the owner of a share may say "hey" you can use my share and become a partner in the mare and the offspring or whatever they come up with....

[batt33]

hope you recover quick as possible batt

Thanks JBEX!

[JBEX]

21) sa1018 kee 3 priv (6-1) out [6-1]
22) su1019 lrl 6 my l (3-1) out [3-1]
23) su1019 baq 9 dans (4-1) out [3-1]
xx) mo1020 tu1021 off days

nice job by the 3 morning linemakers

[JBEX]

sunday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks running


laurel 6 (2:53)
2 my little nico g (3-1)

baq 9 (5:20)
4 danse macabre (4-1)

all time leading army mule earner at over $1M ..5yo mare so guessing this or her next start might be her last .. certainly will be one of the most anticipated foals of one of his daughter's when she's bred

hey str

do you think in a situation like this if the owners don't want to spend $150k + for an elite stallion but would like to breed to one a deal could be reached splitting ownership in the resulting foal ?

[JBEX]

added the ml to the laurel horse

[JBEX]

sunday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks running


laurel 6 (2:53)
2 my little nico g (3-1)

baq 9 (5:20)
4 danse macabre (4-1)

all time leading army mule earner at over $1M ..5yo mare so guessing this or her next start might be her last .. certainly will be one of the most anticipated foals of one of his daughter's when she's bred

[JBEX]

I'm still here catching up on the blog..... the flu"COVID" or what ever came back with a vengeance.... got me good. I enjoyed reading chucky's and Str'sthoughs on winning at gambling... and of course following "army mules"

hope you recover quick as possible batt

[batt33]

I'm still here catching up on the blog..... the flu"COVID" or what ever came back with a vengeance.... got me good. I enjoyed reading chucky's and Str'sthoughs on winning at gambling... and of course following "army mules"

[str]

Jbex, been reading your posts. Are you saying that Army Mule is a +EV sire?

I don't think a sire CAN be + EV with ALL of their offspring, but what is so cool about this horse (Army Mule), is that he was ultra competitive in his career and he has passed all of that onto his offspring. If you see an Army Mule off the board, you can bet that in 99% of the cases if not all. the effort was there but circumstances, like class, footing, etc. was not. Simply put, they ALL try their guts out which is really rare.
Some sires are so great that just about all of their offspring can run. But, as great as they are ability wise, some are finicky with trips or positioning and throw in dull efforts at times. For instance , Fierceness checks that box. But I have yet to see an Army Mule run a race where there was no try. That is really rare and IMO , that makes every Army Mule entered a horse worth a long look.
Chucky, remember the old sports illustrated covers that had guys like Butkus, Huff, Singletary, or Tittle on his knees at the goal line with blood running down his forehead.
That is what Army Mule horses are. Blood and guts efforts.

I have such a profound respect for that type of horse and Army Mile is the poster sire for those types. It was an honor to be able to train and be around those few with that deep trait. One of my very fondest memories and the ability did not matter. It was what they brought every time, everyday, in everything they did. What they showed me, made ME better.

Hope that makes sense.

[JBEX]

had saturday as sunday ..changed it..1 running tomorrow at keeneland

[JBEX]

saturday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

keeneland 3 (2:04)
4 private debbie (6-1)

[JBEX]

21) sa1018 kee 3 priv (6-1) out [6-1]
22) su1019 lrl 6 my l (3-1) out [3-1]
23) su1019 baq 9 dans (4-1) out [3-1]
xx) mo1020 tu1021 off days
24) we1022 kee 3 colo (5-2) 2nd [5-2]
xx) th1023 nothing
xx) fr1024 nothing
25) sa1025 kee 1 back (10-1) out [9-1]
xx) su1026 nothing
xx) mo1027 tu1028 we1029 nothing
xx) th1030 nothing
(26) fr1031 dmr 8 grou (15-1) 3rd/12 [24-1]
27) sa1101 lrl 5 luck (9-2) WON $8.20
28) su1102 baq 5 army (6-1) out [9-1]
29) su1102 lrl 4 hoor (20-1) out [6-1]
30) su1102 dmr 6 sain (7-2) 4th/7 [7-2]
31) su1102 dmr 8 debb (5-2) 3rd/7 [9-5]


(26) juv turf fillies .. missed 2nd by a head
dam sire's a big source of turf,stamina and class .. nice to see if they get that on the bottom potentially capable of good things in turf routes

[JBEX]

sept tracking post 11229 (pg 321)



october

continuation of ARMY MULE progeny tracking at baq , gulfstream , kee,santa anita and going to add laurel honor of str who has contributed greatly in evaluating him as a racehorse and sire ..churchill finished today and won't pick it up again when it resumes 10/26..if there are any in the breeders cup races at del mar will include them here and conclude everything with that (11/1)


baq .. belmont at aqu
gpk .. gulfstream
kee .. keeneland
san .. santa anita
lrl .. laurel

upcoming entries in boldface
footnotes in boldface


xx) we1001 nothing (0 tracks)
xx) th1002 nothing (1 track)
01) fr1003 lrl 2 hoor (12-1) out [9-1]
02) sa1004 lrl 6 my l (6-1) 3rd/10 [5-2]
03) sa1004 baq 8 grou (12-1) WON $26.86
04) su1005 kee 6 grad (12-1) 2nd/11 [12-1]
05) su1005 kee 7 paig (4-1) scratched
xx) mo1006 tu1007 off days
xx) we1008 nothing (1 track)
xx) th1009 nothing (2 tracks)
06) fr1010 baq 3 army (3-1) 2nd/6 [2-1]
07) sa1011 baq 5 reme (20-1) out [20-1]
08) sa1011 kee 6 hill (9-5) 2nd/ 7 [9-5]
09) sa1011 woo 10 a li (4-1) out [9-2]
10) su1012 lrl 5 luck (20-1) out [26-1]
11) su1012 gpk 9 mili (5-1) 3rd/9 [3-1]
12) mo1013 fin 4 part (4-1) 2nd/4 [12-1]
xx) tu1014 off day
xx) we1015 nothing
13)th1016 kee 3 bye (8-1) out [20-1]
14)fr1017 kee 1 army (8-1) 4th/8 [4-1]
15) fr1017 kee 6 army (15-1) out [31-1]
16) fr1017 kee 10 mast (12-1) 3rd/11 [14-1]
17) fr1017 gpk 6 snip (10-1) 2nd/7 [5-2]
18) fr1017 lrl 7 hoor (30-1) out [23-1]
19) fr1017 san 1 ovet (3-2) WON $7.80
20) fr1017 san 9 debb (5-2) 3rd/9 [4-5]




(02) neck off winner
(03) 2yo turf route stakes
(04) half length off winner
(09) woodbine g3 stakes
(12) 2yo ny bred stakes .. finger lakes
(12) 4 horse field with a 1-20 fav who won
(14) about 2 lengths from winner
(16) neck off winner
(20) nose 3rd

[JBEX]

saturday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks are running

keeneland 3 (2:04)
4 private debbie (6-1)


not going to record results here or in my thread till tomorrow

[JBEX]

Jbex, been reading your posts. Are you saying that Army Mule is a +EV sire?

when you say +EV i guess you mean do i think he's an edge long haul vs actual numbers that prove it because I don't have the latter..whether you can just play them without a capping filter and be profitable I'm not sure .. I think if you do play them and use handicapping you need to be aggressive and only eliminate one's that look real bad.. of course you will get burnt on occasion doing that and "looking real bad" is kind of a subjective thing anyway .. nothing is black and white with this chucky but playing his progeny imo at minimum is not a bad direction to go

I feel he's a bit under the radar,gets a good % (from casual observation) of solid runners especially factoring his price point as a stallion .. can run well on all surfaces,track conditions and distances imo ..str likes him also and feels his progeny as a whole try much harder than your average stallion ..

[ChuckyTheGoat]

friday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks are running


gulfstream 6 (3:30)
7 sniper jack (10-1)


keeneland 1 (1pm)
1 army nurse (8-1)


keeneland 6 (3:40)
3 army girl (15-1)


keeneland 10 (5:48)
5 master mule (12-1)


laurel 7 (3:25)
2 hooraw (30-1)


santa anita 1 (4pm)
2 oveta's hobby (3-2)

santa anita 9 (8:03)
3 debby's gal (5-2)

Jbex, been reading your posts. Are you saying that Army Mule is a +EV sire?

[JBEX]

friday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks are running


gulfstream 6 (3:30)
7 sniper jack (10-1)


keeneland 1 (1pm)
1 army nurse (8-1)


keeneland 6 (3:40)
3 army girl (15-1)


keeneland 10 (5:48)
5 master mule (12-1)


laurel 7 (3:25)
2 hooraw (30-1)


santa anita 1 (4pm)
2 oveta's hobby (3-2)

santa anita 9 (8:03)
3 debby's gal (5-2)

[str]

Salud, str. In my early days of betting, I would literally get the heart palpitations during MNF. On that last-minute drive to determine the ATS winner, I would get a cardio workout.

After a while, you come to realize that there will be more games tomorrow. If it's not a football game, maybe it's a race at Keeneland. But there will be more opportunities.

I've also come to realize the connection between Gambling and Investing. Gambling is really just a sub-section of Investing. If you're losing consistently, it's time to re-balance your portfolio.

Agree Chucky.

In a related story, I have a friend who loves the action, and bets modestly enough that he cannot get hurt. He has fun. A lot of fun. He very much enjoys it. A small parlay, or those kind of bet very small, possibly win quite a bit. In todays world of everything offered, that is probably fairly common. He totally gets it. He has decided that he enjoys that avenue of betting instead of maybe being very selective and trying to bet more per game but many less games. I think that is a dilemma that many players have.

When I worked at the track, there were days, weeks, even months when I did not bet a dime. Yet, I was there for every race scrutinizing each horse, ride, trip, etc. for future claiming purposes. Every now and then, I would see something that just screamed " bet this horse next time in the right spot". Honestly, I didn't way more than I did because I was talking about betting 50 bucks but was busy scanning horses to claim for 5-20K bucks. So my attention obviously was on the claiming end of things. But, if I ran into any number of people like my old coach, or Morgan Wooten of Dematha High School basketball fame, or heck, many different people I knew, I would recommend they bet a few bucks on that horse that I had watched. It worked well for them.

So, with that logic, let's see if we can fit that into betting on a football, or any season.
Make your action plays, that you are totally comfortable with, knowing it is entertainment money , but also allow yourself to make 1,2,3,4, plays a year if and when you see a play that is fully justified and checks all the boxes. If you don't see one, don't force it. If you do, make it a separate play, one and done. Then, you might wait 3,4,6,8 weeks or maybe never for the rest of that year, on the next play that is screaming at you and checks ALL the boxes. You do NOT have to make a play for a year if you choose. But, you are always looking for that one that really looks great to you.
By doing that, you are creating another column to keep score of. First, your weekly action plays for enjoyment. The other is a value play that might come only a couple times a year, if at all, on any given season.

That starts a process of trying to select big value plays each year that are fairly rare. And NO, it just doesn't work from day 1. It took me a lifetime to figure out and implement this stuff. But it absolutely works, at least for me !

This can go for any sport. And, the more you do it, just like anything else, the better you will be at it. Personally, I love this and have done it for many a year. I would only suggest someone try it and see if it might work for them. It really makes you think in a good healthy way IMO, and adds overall intrigue to the season as it gives you more to consider.

Hopefully, that might work for some.

[JBEX]

thursday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

keeneland 3 (2:04)
2 bye bye brady (8-1)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agree Chucky.

I think that in order to categorize it, you need to understand it. As you said, it is misunderstood.

There is an adrenaline rush with gambling. People get stuck on that. If you get past the adrenaline rush, it is a mental puzzle that is played everyday. I hear how you can't win if you gamble. Wrong. But... the will to win needs to be the focus NOT the will to have action. Two entirely different things.

Having met you, I know you are analytical and as they say, " you get it". That is probably the biggest hurdle that gamblers have. Overcome THAT, and the other stuff just seems to fall into place.

Salud, str. In my early days of betting, I would literally get the heart palpitations during MNF. On that last-minute drive to determine the ATS winner, I would get a cardio workout.

After a while, you come to realize that there will be more games tomorrow. If it's not a football game, maybe it's a race at Keeneland. But there will be more opportunities.

I've also come to realize the connection between Gambling and Investing. Gambling is really just a sub-section of Investing. If you're losing consistently, it's time to re-balance your portfolio.

[JBEX]

wednesday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

none run tomorrow

tracks running in boldface

[str]

Hi, str. I think I grasp the context of your post. I'll give a few ideas:

*Gambling is sometimes seen in a negative context. "Degenerate gambling" and "gambling problem" are terms you hear. It's not a "problem" if you're winning.

I think GAMBLING is often misunderstood. You're trying to project a future outcome in a way that you think you have an edge. It's challenging but not impossible.

LIFE is a four-letter word. RISK is a four-letter word as well. So, gambling is truly risk assessment.

You are correct in saying there's risk at every turn. Risk in walking across the street, risk in driving your car, etc. It's everywhere.

Gambling is just an assessment on future events. We'll find out soon enough if we're right. THAT's why they play the games.

Agree Chucky.

I think that in order to categorize it, you need to understand it. As you said, it is misunderstood.

There is an adrenaline rush with gambling. People get stuck on that. If you get past the adrenaline rush, it is a mental puzzle that is played everyday. I hear how you can't win if you gamble. Wrong. But... the will to win needs to be the focus NOT the will to have action. Two entirely different things.

Having met you, I know you are analytical and as they say, " you get it". That is probably the biggest hurdle that gamblers have. Overcome THAT, and the other stuff just seems to fall into place.

[JBEX]

tuesday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

none run tomorrow

2nd of 4 at finger lakes today ..1-20 ($2.10) fav won and the 2nd choice army mule was 2nd [12-1]

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Can I ask you folks that read this a question please?

It's not so much about horses but it is about betting in general.

It's Gambling. Any sport, anything.

We gamble in life everyday. Not on games, on insurance, mortgage rate, you name it. It's everywhere.

I have tried talking about this before in small pieces here and there but I just don't know if people are interested or not.

When it comes to betting, people have varying ways that they want to participate in it. But the common theme is that you cannot possibly win in the end. ,That is not true. It's all about the approach. The mindset. The mission.

Let me know if it is worth my time or yours to bring this discussion in here.

I don't want to waste your time or mine unless it is worth while doing.

Thanks everyone.

Hi, str. I think I grasp the context of your post. I'll give a few ideas:

*Gambling is sometimes seen in a negative context. "Degenerate gambling" and "gambling problem" are terms you hear. It's not a "problem" if you're winning.

I think GAMBLING is often misunderstood. You're trying to project a future outcome in a way that you think you have an edge. It's challenging but not impossible.

LIFE is a four-letter word. RISK is a four-letter word as well. So, gambling is truly risk assessment.

You are correct in saying there's risk at every turn. Risk in walking across the street, risk in driving your car, etc. It's everywhere.

Gambling is just an assessment on future events. We'll find out soon enough if we're right. THAT's why they play the games.

[JBEX]

Can I ask you folks that read this a question please?

It's not so much about horses but it is about betting in general.

It's Gambling. Any sport, anything.

We gamble in life everyday. Not on games, on insurance, mortgage rate, you name it. It's everywhere.

I have tried talking about this before in small pieces here and there but I just don't know if people are interested or not.

When it comes to betting, people have varying ways that they want to participate in it. But the common theme is that you cannot possibly win in the end. ,That is not true. It's all about the approach. The mindset. The mission.

Let me know if it is worth my time or yours to bring this discussion in here.

I don't want to waste your time or mine unless it is worth while doing.

Thanks everyone.

would be interested to hear your perspectives on this..I agree with mindset,mission and I would add a couple of more m's money management to the things necessary for success .. let me be clear this has always been a casual thing for me and I have never put it all together.. the money,time ,effort and quite frankly my skill set falls short to get this done

I love trying to find spots where I feel I might have an edge on a race card .. lot's of fun even on a casual basis

[JBEX]

Well you found a doozy here JBEX. Let's try and unpack this mess.

The 2 horse was Lucky Esther. She broke fine and I could not see where the rider lost his stirrup but it did look like that going around the first turn and we cannot see that outside stirrup. But what occurred first is, that she tried to run off when asked to rate. She REALLY wanted to run, and quite frankly, I'm not sure why the rider did not let her. They were not running too fast at all. Actually, rather slow.

In hindsight, if he does not relinquish the lead right away, the other rider probably sits 2nd . But... he fought her and that fight got ugly as it went on until they were going down the backside. (Looks like she has a light mouth anyway, so you cannot wrangle those types of fillies with the bit or you will get exactly what you saw).
The problem with that was, they were going very slow. From that point on, it was already over for her.

Worst part of this is they ran the second half of the race faster than they ran the first half of the race. That just made the mistake of this rider look worse still.

On a side note, keep an eye on the winner. A firster that closed into fast late fractions. She can run some. Probably win a nw/2 with ease next out.

As for Lucky Esther, maybe a change of rider and let her do her thing. She will almost certainly run better next out.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str and appreciate the response..saw the horse throwing her head in the air so what you said probably should have been my first guess ..you would know better than me but seems for a 2yo going 2 turns for the first time in her 3rd start not overdoing it to rate or let het ..run on makes more sense .. get the experience doing it without a fight and make necessary adjustments if needed in the next start

see what you mean with the winner closing into a fast final fraction ..try to keep an eye out for her

[Optional]

Can I ask you folks that read this a question please?

It's not so much about horses but it is about betting in general.

It's Gambling. Any sport, anything.

We gamble in life everyday. Not on games, on insurance, mortgage rate, you name it. It's everywhere.

I have tried talking about this before in small pieces here and there but I just don't know if people are interested or not.

When it comes to betting, people have varying ways that they want to participate in it. But the common theme is that you cannot possibly win in the end. ,That is not true. It's all about the approach. The mindset. The mission.

Let me know if it is worth my time or yours to bring this discussion in here.

I don't want to waste your time or mine unless it is worth while doing.

Thanks everyone.

I think anyone can win, if they choose to. But also think most want the rush and that's more important than the effort required to win.

[str]

Can I ask you folks that read this a question please?

It's not so much about horses but it is about betting in general.

It's Gambling. Any sport, anything.

We gamble in life everyday. Not on games, on insurance, mortgage rate, you name it. It's everywhere.

I have tried talking about this before in small pieces here and there but I just don't know if people are interested or not.

When it comes to betting, people have varying ways that they want to participate in it. But the common theme is that you cannot possibly win in the end. ,That is not true. It's all about the approach. The mindset. The mission.

Let me know if it is worth my time or yours to bring this discussion in here.

I don't want to waste your time or mine unless it is worth while doing.

Thanks everyone.

[str]

hey str

what do you think was going on with the army mule at laurel going into the 1st turn .. maybe the jockey came out of the stirrup and recovered ?

Well you found a doozy here JBEX. Let's try and unpack this mess.

The 2 horse was Lucky Esther. She broke fine and I could not see where the rider lost his stirrup but it did look like that going around the first turn and we cannot see that outside stirrup. But what occurred first is, that she tried to run off when asked to rate. She REALLY wanted to run, and quite frankly, I'm not sure why the rider did not let her. They were not running too fast at all. Actually, rather slow.

In hindsight, if he does not relinquish the lead right away, the other rider probably sits 2nd . But... he fought her and that fight got ugly as it went on until they were going down the backside. (Looks like she has a light mouth anyway, so you cannot wrangle those types of fillies with the bit or you will get exactly what you saw).
The problem with that was, they were going very slow. From that point on, it was already over for her.

Worst part of this is they ran the second half of the race faster than they ran the first half of the race. That just made the mistake of this rider look worse still.

On a side note, keep an eye on the winner. A firster that closed into fast late fractions. She can run some. Probably win a nw/2 with ease next out.

As for Lucky Esther, maybe a change of rider and let her do her thing. She will almost certainly run better next out.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

monday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

finger lakes 4 (2:27) 2yo ny bred stakes
1 party in the army (4-1)

5 horse field with a 4-5 ml fav #3 artic beast

posted today's results (11279)

running tracks are boldface

[JBEX]

hey str

what do you think was going on with the army mule at laurel going into the 1st turn .. maybe the jockey came out of the stirrup and recovered ?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pace makes the race Chucky. A half in 45 and change will cook the best of them.

Great to see you in here!

I remember the Mr Ed quote. That was so good. An instant classic.

Salud, str. I've come to appreciate the concept of Pace over time.

The top jocks understand pace. They instinctively know how much horse they have left. It's amazing to watch the speed-duels cancel out the early leaders.