Horse Racing questions and answers

[batt33]

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG6553_1751582586299/MP4/IMG6553_1751582586299.mp4

Black Tie Optional Update



We checked in on Black Tie Optional this morning during an owner barn visit at Los Alamitos. Your son of Not This Time looks tremendous in the flesh, and has made a lot of progress physically since shipping into the Baffert barn. He still has plenty of growing and maturing to do, which is no surprise, but we were very pleased with how he looks. He is on schedule to return to the work tab tomorrow and we will follow up after his breeze.

[batt33]

moving on here ya go STR

[batt33]

no problem batt .. good to see you checking in

thanks!

[batt33]

Hope she does well Batt.
GL

well dissapointing.... but not unexpected ..... never ran a lick.....
Sweet Voyage turned in quite the head scratcher this afternoon at Presque Isle Downs. She was NOT claimed.

Dropping to the back of the pack early, she was asked for more turning for home, but had lots of work left to do. Jockey Willie Martinez opted to attempt to split horses rather than swing wide, and she just didn’t quicken while never finding a truly clear path. She also struggled with her leads, but that’s normal for her.

We certainly expected a much better run today. We’ll let trainer Jeff Hiles get her home and go over her to rule out any physical issues, but it may have just come down to tactics and trip. Jeff did also note that she might not have liked the humid weather today.

[JBEX]

str said it'd be ok to put up notifications .. only 1 going tomorrow covering all 3 tracks and that was posted a few hours ago ..post 10927

[str]

Hope she does well Batt.
GL

[JBEX]

Wow much appreciated!

no problem batt .. good to see you checking in

[batt33]

I have been busy... and now fire season..... ugh.....
I have a horse running today race 6 number 1 (sweet voyage...)

Jeff reports that Sweet Voyage has continued to train well out of what was a demanding effort over the dirt last time out. She worked well yesterday, in preparation for this race, posting a three-furlong bullet yesterday at HighPointe in :37.65 (1/5), which can be seen in the video above. She should find this field a touch friendlier than the competition which she has faced as of late, and will get back over a synthetic surface on which she sports her lone career win. There are a few horses in here that match up with her in the figure department, so it will not be an easy race per se, but with another step forward we are hopeful that she can compete for a win in this race.




More on the competition:

#2 Quill Pen: Comes into this race second off the layoff after being defeated by more than 25 lengths in an off-turf starter allowance event at Delaware. Will need to improve off what is a career-best Beyer of 56 to compete for top placing in this group.

#3 Wonder Wave: Broke her maiden at the $20K level at Lone Star Park last time out. Will switch into a new barn here, which sports a 26% win rate with horses going out for them for the first time. Another in here who will need a step forward, especially as she will face winners for the first time in here, but she seems to be in decent form.

#4 Nelida: Was third in a five-horse field at this level last time out. Best efforts have come against lesser competition, but her career-high Beyer is 67. If replicated, can put her in contention.

#5 Claramente: Was an easy winner last time out over this track for maiden $15K, earning a career-best 68 Beyer. She got loose and brave on the lead in that event. Not so sure she gets the same race shape in here as the horse drawn outside of them all will likely press her, but has to be respected off that recent figure.

#6 Peaches Point: Was the beaten favorite at this level last time out in a race that lacked pace, which certainly put her up against it being that she is a closer. Will have to improve off her best figures to compete in here.

#7 Cocktail Kisses: Will be forced to go from this outside draw and will play a significant role in how this race shape will play out. Has the class and figures to be labeled a contender in here.

[batt33]

starting beginning of the saratoga meet (officially next week but having some kind of racing festival that goes july 3rd-6th) i will be posting entries and results with final odds (if in the money) for army mule progeny at 5 (mostly) summer meets ..sar and ellis will be done by end of august ..dmr , mth and colonial by mid sept .. was considering delaware but it ends mid october and figured I'd give myself a break from doing a 6th track.. will not be looking for them at smaller tracks during this period

saratoga (thursday)
del mar (july 18)
monmouth (started)
ellis (thursday)
colonial (july 9)

1 weekly post and I will add entries to it throughout the week..new page and I will forward it .. no notifications when a new day's entries are put up or results are posted ..will try mostly to get the days entries up before noon or sometimes night before .. if not the same day results will be up by the following day and on occasion may do it in bunches a few days later .. see how it goes

Wow much appreciated!

[JBEX]

week 1 .. 7/3 -7/6
opening day sar to last day dmr (mid sept)
army mule progeny at ...

saratoga/del mar/monmouth/ellis/colonial
(del mar and colonial haven't begun yet)

everything for this week will be in this post
will be a notification when I post


7/3 thursday
nothing


7/4 friday (done)

saratoga 3 @ 2:14
#4 shadow dragon (4-1)








.

[JBEX]

Wow. That’s a lot of work JBEX. Really appreciate it.

no problem str

it's really not that bad limiting it to 5 tracks and thought it'd be nice to do it coinciding with saratoga and del mar .. mth always decent and ellis park and colonial downs product has improved a bunch in recent years ..be interesting to keep tabs on them for a couple of months

[str]

starting beginning of the saratoga meet (officially next week but having some kind of racing festival that goes july 3rd-6th) i will be posting entries and results with final odds (if in the money) for army mule progeny at 5 (mostly) summer meets ..sar and ellis will be done by end of august ..dmr , mth and colonial by mid sept .. was considering delaware but it ends mid october and figured I'd give myself a break from doing a 6th track.. will not be looking for them at smaller tracks during this period

saratoga (thursday)
del mar (july 18)
monmouth (started)
ellis (thursday)
colonial (july 9)

1 weekly post and I will add entries to it throughout the week..new page and I will forward it .. no notifications when a new day's entries are put up or results are posted ..will try mostly to get the days entries up before noon or sometimes night before .. if not the same day results will be up by the following day and on occasion may do it in bunches a few days later .. see how it goes

Wow. That’s a lot of work JBEX. Really appreciate it.

[JBEX]

starting beginning of the saratoga meet (officially next week but having some kind of racing festival that goes july 3rd-6th) i will be posting entries and results with final odds (if in the money) for army mule progeny at 5 (mostly) summer meets ..sar and ellis will be done by end of august ..dmr , mth and colonial by mid sept .. was considering delaware but it ends mid october and figured I'd give myself a break from doing a 6th track.. will not be looking for them at smaller tracks during this period

saratoga (thursday)
del mar (july 18)
monmouth (started)
ellis (thursday)
colonial (july 9)

1 weekly post and I will add entries to it throughout the week..new page and I will forward it .. no notifications when a new day's entries are put up or results are posted ..will try mostly to get the days entries up before noon or sometimes night before .. if not the same day results will be up by the following day and on occasion may do it in bunches a few days later .. see how it goes

[JBEX]

26 months old and runs that professionally?

Two turns, turf, the crowd and announcer noise, the camera flashes... It's incredible.

absolutely.. maybe we'll see him final week at saratoga when the lone 2 turn turf stakes for 2yo's goes ..be an interesting follow the rest of the year

[str]

wasn't thinking about the foaling month which as you said adds more to it.. was bet very well also for a big venue track and I've noticed over at least the last few months that they seem to be in general..have heard at least 3 mentions on televised media this year that they like army mule as a sire including joe bravo last week on the fox show ..I'd say it's definitely not a secret anymore although to the general betting public (and that's not unimportant) it probably still is to a degree

26 months old and runs that professionally?

Two turns, turf, the crowd and announcer noise, the camera flashes... It's incredible.

[JBEX]

I sure did !!

And I don't care about the time. Probably hard as a rock.

But from the mental side of things...A monster effort. An April foal, in June, two turns and turf for it's 1st start and runs like a seasoned 5 year old. Easy win, extremely professional, and never set down all the way. Unbelievable JBEX.
The horse that finished 2nd ran extremely well. This one though, It's hard to put that into words. That was ridiculous.

wasn't thinking about the foaling month which as you said adds more to it.. was bet very well also for a big venue track and I've noticed over at least the last few months that they seem to be in general..have heard at least 3 mentions on televised media this year that they like army mule as a sire including joe bravo last week on the fox show ..I'd say it's definitely not a secret anymore although to the general betting public (and that's not unimportant) it probably still is to a degree

[str]

hey str

did you happen to catch the gulfstream race ? what a professional race for a 2 year old going 2 turns on the grass first time out in june ! time was 2 seconds of the track record so it must've been extremely hard surface..have to think he might turn into something good down the road

I sure did !!

And I don't care about the time. Probably hard as a rock.

But from the mental side of things...A monster effort. An April foal, in June, two turns and turf for it's 1st start and runs like a seasoned 5 year old. Easy win, extremely professional, and never set down all the way. Unbelievable JBEX.
The horse that finished 2nd ran extremely well. This one though, It's hard to put that into words. That was ridiculous.

[JBEX]

hey str

did you happen to catch the gulfstream race ? what a professional race for a 2 year old going 2 turns on the grass first time out in june ! time was 2 seconds of the track record so it must've been extremely hard surface..have to think he might turn into something good down the road

[str]

Looked at all 3 horses.

This one kind of jumps off the page.

I would have to consider this one a lot.

Just love the box here. Last one in, first one out? Good chance for that.

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut[/QUOTE]

I have not seen the replay yet. This horse finished 2nd. The winner, another first time starter was obviously the better horse. The chart does show that this Army Mule broke on top and ran great , simply losing to a better horse.
The takeaway though is, there was about a 70% +/- chance that this AM was going to load last and break 1st with the box ( outside post with a good run to the turn), in this spot. That is exactly what happened according to the charts. I will watch the replay, but here is the takeaway from that.

We knew there was an above average chance that this AM would load last and break first. That DID happen. Was that an edge most people did not know? Yes. So while this horse was 2nd best, we had an edge. That folks, is all you can ask for in a game of chance that betting horses is. This was a solid play.
Limit your plays to having an edge and you will be plus in the end most likely. It takes discipline, understanding situations, and the will to not play just to play.
OK, want to play to have action, fine, maybe a very reduced amount, but keep the edge plays consistently higher. Keep score. This can and will work.

[JBEX]

lone star unless you have RTN best you can do is a replay the following day..no tvg

[JBEX]

double l's army is #9..forgot in intial post

[Easy-Rider 66]

Well, yeah, too bad.

But, from the handicappers mental state, it has to feel good that you analyzed that race, identified the speed, the pace was slowed as best she could, and your horse ran great at 13-1 . Very well done EZ !

Confidence is as important as execution .

Gauge your ability now vs. a few years ago. Understand what you see now that you did not see then.

That tough beat should propel you forward. You can't win them all, but finding gems like that take more than luck.

Keep up the great work.

THX for the good words sir.

[JBEX]

I cannot think of another stallion where I see the offspring and instead of handicapping the race to see if it can win, I look through the race to see if it can lose. I've never seen anything like that before. OK, maybe Hoist The Flag way back in the day.

I had an extremely sentimental connection with him .

i remember going back to the 80's or 90's (former early for me with capping ) that hoist the flag was considered a top broodmare sire..one of the only one's I recognized for that outside of buckpasser

Looked at all 3 horses.

This one kind of jumps off the page.

I would have to consider this one a lot.

Just love the box here. Last one in, first one out? Good chance for that.

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut

good to see the 2yo's starting to show up and started off with a bang with pinky finger who looks like he might become something special ..at lone star a sire like army mule Is definitely above avg for that level of track..the two veterans at mth and baq definitely have a decent shot imo

[str]

THX STR. Nothing in particular just wanted your opinion. I had a friend drop $10 to win on the #2 for me so a tough beat here. THX

Well, yeah, too bad.

But, from the handicappers mental state, it has to feel good that you analyzed that race, identified the speed, the pace was slowed as best she could, and your horse ran great at 13-1 . Very well done EZ !

Confidence is as important as execution .

Gauge your ability now vs. a few years ago. Understand what you see now that you did not see then.

That tough beat should propel you forward. You can't win them all, but finding gems like that take more than luck.

Keep up the great work.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Great to see you EZ !

I would have no complaints at all with her ride EZ. Without knowing the horse or instructions, she rode away, made sure she would be in front, and got the horse to relax in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters with 24's. They finished up in 24, so they were running right along.

If you are concerned about giving up the rail, it's a bit different when you pass a chute on the grass as you cannot get too cute with that or your horse is given the opportunity to do something stupid and duck inwards when the rail disappears crossing that chute.

In hindsight, just as she looked and continued to ask a bit in that first 1/4 mile, she was making sure the 4 would not get head and head with her, just after she glanced, the rider on the 4 conceded the lead to her. Had she been able to settle her horse going by the wire that MIGHT have helped, but honestly, that is unfair to say because if she allows that horse to rush up and be head and head, she has thrown away an opportunity. So, it would be a bit cold of me to bring that up. That would be incredibly picky on my part I think.

All and all, I would have no complaints EZ.

Did you have something you saw that you were not sure of ?

THX STR. Nothing in particular just wanted your opinion. I had a friend drop $10 to win on the #2 for me so a tough beat here. THX

[str]

Looked at all 3 horses.

This one kind of jumps off the page.

I would have to consider this one a lot.

Just love the box here. Last one in, first one out? Good chance for that.

lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut

[str]

Hey STR: the race is BAQ R10. the horse is the #2 Kid Kreesa. sent off at 13/1. Got nailed at the wire by the fav. If you get a chance watch the replay. Any critique Of Katie Davis ride good or bad is appreciated. THX in advance.

Great to see you EZ !

I would have no complaints at all with her ride EZ. Without knowing the horse or instructions, she rode away, made sure she would be in front, and got the horse to relax in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters with 24's. They finished up in 24, so they were running right along.

If you are concerned about giving up the rail, it's a bit different when you pass a chute on the grass as you cannot get too cute with that or your horse is given the opportunity to do something stupid and duck inwards when the rail disappears crossing that chute.

In hindsight, just as she looked and continued to ask a bit in that first 1/4 mile, she was making sure the 4 would not get head and head with her, just after she glanced, the rider on the 4 conceded the lead to her. Had she been able to settle her horse going by the wire that MIGHT have helped, but honestly, that is unfair to say because if she allows that horse to rush up and be head and head, she has thrown away an opportunity. So, it would be a bit cold of me to bring that up. That would be incredibly picky on my part I think.

All and all, I would have no complaints EZ.

Did you have something you saw that you were not sure of ?

[str]

guess you might have seen he was scratched.. I think overall for me I would take an aggressive stance playing his horses..if it's in the ballpark go with it .. I realize ITB is a subjective thing and everybody has a least a slightly different view of it on any particular horse

I cannot think of another stallion where I see the offspring and instead of handicapping the race to see if it can win, I look through the race to see if it can lose. I've never seen anything like that before. OK, maybe Hoist The Flag way back in the day.

I had an extremely sentimental connection with him .

[JBEX]

added baq 7

[JBEX]

army mule ..sunday




gulfstream 2 @ 1:24
#5 you mule (8-1) 2yo debut


mth 5 @ 2:50
#4 molly's a bullet (10-1)

baq 7 @ 3:38
#2 forward move (10-1)


lone star 6 @ 4:55
double l's army (3-1) 2yo debut



.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: the race is BAQ R10. the horse is the #2 Kid Kreesa. sent off at 13/1. Got nailed at the wire by the fav. If you get a chance watch the replay. Any critique Of Katie Davis ride good or bad is appreciated. THX in advance.

[JBEX]

I assumed that the Oaklawn race would be a nicer spot and the race seemed impressive. Going on memory now but I thought I saw some others that were in real good form and while i usually consider Oaklawn as a stronger circuit than quite a few, that race was a starter race??? Something like that. And I wondered if maybe it came up a little light??? Wish I had it in front of me but I don’t.
Either way, he will be tough. Just thought others would be as well

guess you might have seen he was scratched.. I think overall for me I would take an aggressive stance playing his horses..if it's in the ballpark go with it .. I realize ITB is a subjective thing and everybody has a least a slightly different view of it on any particular horse

[str]

I like that he's coming from oaklawn (tough horses),close to a very fast pace and that condition I believe is tougher ..it was an optional claimer with an allowance condition vs imo something easier here .. a few other things but I won't get long-winded..the above would be the heart of my argument

I assumed that the Oaklawn race would be a nicer spot and the race seemed impressive. Going on memory now but I thought I saw some others that were in real good form and while i usually consider Oaklawn as a stronger circuit than quite a few, that race was a starter race??? Something like that. And I wondered if maybe it came up a little light??? Wish I had it in front of me but I don’t.
Either way, he will be tough. Just thought others would be as well

[JBEX]

Ceepeegee: Oh man, what a cool race this is. These old boys are really solid. Several in here that if they win, not many are surprised. That includes CPG. Some serious hard knockers in here.

So if I am shopping AM's to spot play, this race is all about the odds. On first glance, I would value 7-2 as a bit low, being as 2 or 3 could win other than him. He drifts up to 5 or 6 -1? That is a different story. With 3 legit horses or maybe 4, too me, it's all about the odds and probability. The best bet though? He will try his ass off. No risk in stating that.


No form available for me on the Woodbine horse.

GL everyone.

I like that he's coming from oaklawn (tough horses),close to a very fast pace and that condition I believe is tougher ..it was an optional claimer with an allowance condition vs imo something easier here .. a few other things but I won't get long-winded..the above would be the heart of my argument

[JBEX]

https://youtu.be/vWeBNj7UIlA?si=ZVr9JptRBCzfR35I