Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

great run by determinstic! old school SBR horse!

thanks batt

yes it's been over 2 years that str and I have followed him and has developed into a great horse .. nice to see him win pressing vs being on the lead and also getting the extra half furlong from last year .. he should be plenty fit for the bc mile when the time comes

[batt33]

great run by determinstic! old school SBR horse!

[batt33]

My play will be a Renegade and Emerging Market exacta box and a win bet on Emerging Market.

Good luck everyone.

Thanks for the play STR! working on the late p-5 starting with 3,4,6,10

[str]

My play will be a Renegade and Emerging Market exacta box and a win bet on Emerging Market.

Good luck everyone.

[str]

As for the Belmont Stakes : We all know that I like Renegade. From what little I have seen so far, he checks in as simply running better than most. But, that doesn't make him a winner. We saw that in the Derby. So today he will end up, maybe 8-5 ? Just a guess, but it will be short. And for me, even 2-1 is somewhat short. Why? Because of the same thing we talked about before the Derby. He was 5-1 and that meant he needs to win 1 out of 5 races to make a profit overall. I did, and would take that, all day long with what I consider the best horse in the race.
But 8-5? or even 2-1? I'm not at all excited about that.

Things typically need to go somewhat well for any horse to win. They have to break, not have trouble find them, fire on command, finish well. A lot of things need to go well. To lose, it does not take all that much. In the Derby, I was resigned to losing after the first 15 seconds. Sure, I hoped that I might still win, and when they turned for home, in my mind, he was going to win. I did not envision anyone catching him from behind and he had the momentum to catch everyone in front of him. And , he did. But a horse did finish faster than he did and he got beat. That's the way the game is sometimes.
I was happy with my play. Not so happy with the first 20 seconds but it was the 1 post and if they lined up that group 4 more times I think he wins at least one of them and probably two with a chance at possibly 3 wins. So in my mind, the bet was solid. And when I do bet, I always review after the fact to see if my assumptions were in line or not. Too me, THAT is what makes for a better handicapper. I never excuse a loss. I always think about it for a minute or so, usually during the replay. Was the bet justified or could I have done better? That has always worked well for me as a tool to continually improve my selections and money management. I suggest that if anyone thinks this makes sense, to try it and see if it makes you a better player. I think it will. Try and give it a shot.

But back to the race today. Todd is going to make damn sure the pace is honest. His #2 horse will handle that.

Most years, this is a 1 1/2 mile race. And in those races, I really like to avoid deep closers. I look for pace and either play a speed horse if I think the fractions will be slow or a stalk type. But at a mile and a 1/4, it is different.

While looking for some value in here, Growth Equity seems like a speedish/ stalk type. Ottinho looks to improve. No surprise if he runs very well today. Emerging Market should run well. The race should set up for him. There a a couple others I might consider at a decent price. But I will not be betting on the horse I feel is the best horse. That short price and coming from far back just has no value for me.

GL everyone. I might be back later if I find something or if anyone has any questions I'll respond.

[str]

Having watched Saratoga either live or through the charts this week, it is fair to say that the track has played in favor of the inside and in favor of speed so far. It was probably strongest on opening day, which happens frequently at the beginning of most Saratoga meets. But it does seem as though it has stuck around. And while it might not be an earth shattering bias, the inside and speed has done very well so far. We will see where today takes us.

[str]

That made me chuckle! Kinda like (many moons ago) my cousin had horses in her barn for the 2 year old sales..... lower end pedigrees ....then you would see the "Hartley de renzo " horses aye yi yi......

Hahaha. Great analogy of the sales ring outfits. Hartley de Renzo horses are all monsters.

[batt33]

Bacio Update



Bacio has arrived safely in England. He shipped into National Stud in Newmarket, and will stay there for the time being to train on the famous Heath (click here for a great video feature). As we get closer to the Royal Ascot meeting, he’ll make the 100-or-so-mile trip from Newmarket to Ascot, giving him a chance to settle in at the receiving barns there and do some paddock schooling.

We’ll be sure to pass along any and all updates and content as it comes to us.


Enjoy this video of Bacio getting settled in in Newmarket.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/c6618187dbc64008aa004f548912b188_1780655861343/MP4/c6618187dbc64008aa004f548912b188_1780655861343.mp4

Like I said just some "behind the scenes stuff" that is fun to share .... as most people don't get the see it...

[JBEX]

long time follow deterministic will be running at saratoga on saturday in R12 the manhattan stakes .. #5 (7-2) post 6:11

another long time follow going in the ogden phipps today (R12) #1 fully subscribed (5-2) 6:25

2nd/6 [9-5] < $2.10 > dead heat

[batt33]

Man... If my horses looked like all yours do, I might have just slept in the tack room. Holy crap !

The athleticism is ridiculous. Don't get me wrong. I LOVED my ratty little stable of tryers. And I did have some that looked like these ( almost), but this level of athlete is ridiculous. I mean, honestly, it's like these trainers are working with pro athletes and my horses looked like a pick up game across the street from a MacDonald's.

That made me chuckle! Kinda like (many moons ago) my cousin had horses in her barn for the 2 year old sales..... lower end pedigrees ....then you would see the "Hartley de renzo " horses aye yi yi......

[str]

What I enjoy about this thread is sharing things on how "my" horses are doing.... while I do have just a smidge of "being on the inside" I wondered what trainers are thinking on how the horses progress....Love the eagle eye of STR! It is also just as fun to post the videos on what trainers actually think while sharing a posted worker and time. If that makes sense.... so....

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/VIDEO20260604134530_1780607072219/MP4/VIDEO20260604134530_1780607072219.mp4

Paddock Buzz galloped out of the gate this morning at Santa Anita Park in the middle of two other 2-year-olds. By no means is she ready to break from the gate for an official work, but she is making steady progress and beginning to get more comfortable. As we reported in our last post-breeze update, Dan plans to give the training track a test run for this weekend’s work.

Man... If my horses looked like all yours do, I might have just slept in the tack room. Holy crap !

The athleticism is ridiculous. Don't get me wrong. I LOVED my ratty little stable of tryers. And I did have some that looked like these ( almost), but this level of athlete is ridiculous. I mean, honestly, it's like these trainers are working with pro athletes and my horses looked like a pick up game across the street from a MacDonald's.

[BOA12]

think doug o'neill who has 2 others running on the card feels he may have a shot at 3rd or 4th with this one ($2M purse) I think that's not farfetched at all and would make for nice vertical payoffs

Thanks J.

Popping up the form

and see what adds up.

GL to all this meet.

[ProSportsEdge]

What I enjoy about this thread is sharing things on how "my" horses are doing.... while I do have just a smidge of "being on the inside" I wondered what trainers are thinking on how the horses progress....Love the eagle eye of STR! It is also just as fun to post the videos on what trainers actually think while sharing a posted worker and time. If that makes sense.... so....

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/VIDEO20260604134530_1780607072219/MP4/VIDEO20260604134530_1780607072219.mp4

Paddock Buzz galloped out of the gate this morning at Santa Anita Park in the middle of two other 2-year-olds. By no means is she ready to break from the gate for an official work, but she is making steady progress and beginning to get more comfortable. As we reported in our last post-breeze update, Dan plans to give the training track a test run for this weekend’s work.

Good to hear she's making steady progress. No need to rush things with a young horse—building confidence now can pay off later. Looking forward to the next update.

[batt33]

What I enjoy about this thread is sharing things on how "my" horses are doing.... while I do have just a smidge of "being on the inside" I wondered what trainers are thinking on how the horses progress....Love the eagle eye of STR! It is also just as fun to post the videos on what trainers actually think while sharing a posted worker and time. If that makes sense.... so....

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/VIDEO20260604134530_1780607072219/MP4/VIDEO20260604134530_1780607072219.mp4

Paddock Buzz galloped out of the gate this morning at Santa Anita Park in the middle of two other 2-year-olds. By no means is she ready to break from the gate for an official work, but she is making steady progress and beginning to get more comfortable. As we reported in our last post-breeze update, Dan plans to give the training track a test run for this weekend’s work.

[batt33]

scratched out of todays race to go on Saturday..... and she is in a really tough race.... but ya never know....
Nakoma Race Overview



Nakoma goes turf to dirt in start number two to kick off one of the best race cards of the year Saturday on the G1 Belmont S. undercard at Saratoga. Your daughter of Vekoma drew the six hole in a field of eight and is 10-1 on the morning line. Post time is 11:00 a.m. ET.

Coverage of the race should be available on FS2 as well as NYRA’s YouTube channel.

Maidens on big days like this always tend to be tougher—and this is certainly no exception—but we were very pleased with Nakoma’s first showing and look forward to seeing her build on that effort with some experience under her belt. The switch from turf to dirt seems worth exploring at this stage, and that’s a move trainer Jena Antonucci does pretty well with (14%, $5.61 ROI with maidens going turf to dirt).



More on the competition:

#1 Three Shot Sheryl (15-1) - Newcomer draws the dreaded rail for a young trainer who’s been off to an impressive start overall, but hasn’t won with many firsters. Sire Tacitus is winning at just 6% with debuters himself and there’s not much in the pedigree to cling to. Would be a major surprise.

#2 My Gun’s Loaded (15-1) - $650K daughter of Gun Runner did no running on debut at Oaklawn late last year behind a subsequent stakes winner and two other next-out graduates. Changes barns from Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen to future Hall of Famer Chad Brown and has been working regularly down at Monmouth. Seems like Chad’s second stringer in the race.

#3 Pippa Adds (6-1) - Second last time after showing the way going this distance downstate. Needs to get faster from a speed figure perspective, but she’s fairly logical.

#4 Cold Spell (3-5) - Super short morning-line favorite as the 97 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for her runner-up finish on debut stands out big time. The Gun Runner filly, whose dam Chalon missed by a head in the 2018 G1 Breeders’ Cup F/M Sprint, ran into another buzzsaw at Keeneland in April in the form of the much-hyped seven-figure seller Mashallah. The two horses who finished directly behind her that day came back to earn their own diplomas impressively, but the one cause for the pause is the fact that Mashallah herself faded abruptly to be a distant fifth last week in a Churchill allowance as the odds-on chalk.

#5 Fusion (10-1) - By Into Mischief out of fellow Chad Brown trainee Separationofpowers, who broke her maiden by almost a dozen lengths here as a juvenile and came back the following season to annex the G1 Test S. over this same track and trip. This Spendthrift homebred dead heated for second in her Big A unveiling in March, though that was just a five-horse field—the number came back slow and the form of that race has not held up very well. Tricky call.

#7 Crowning Glory (8-1) - Regally bred Juddmonte homebred is out of champion Close Hatches, already the dam of last year’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine Scylla; the aforementioned two-turn-loving $3.7-million earner Tacitus; and another long-winded graded stakes winner—all by Tapit. This daughter of Uncle Mo is bred to be any kind, though based on her breeze videos available on XBTV, the Bill Mott pupil may not be his next Royal Delta.

#8 My Sherrona (10-1) - Stakes-placed daughter of Not This Time has been a bridesmaid in four of eight lifetime starts, and has been off since finishing fourth going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct in December. Comes back first time for the Mott barn, and is drawn well outside to employ her tactical speed, but she has had plenty of chances and seems like one who will need there to be a few no shows to finally grab her diploma.

[JBEX]

When I looked at the Derby,

I was ready to look no

further than #1.

When I looked at the

Preakness I was to

look no further

than #1

Haven't looked

at Belmont yet

I wonder who

is #1 ?

think doug o'neill who has 2 others running on the card feels he may have a shot at 3rd or 4th with this one ($2M purse) I think that's not farfetched at all and would make for nice vertical payoffs

[JBEX]

long time follow deterministic will be running at saratoga on saturday in R12 the manhattan stakes .. #5 (7-2) post 6:11

[BOA12]

So as you go through the Belmont Stakes, you will see that there is not a ton of early speed. Todd noticed that as well. So while there are only a couple of horses that would like to be up close and slow things down, one of them is in here to make sure the pace is honest. Powershift will not allow Growth Equity or anyone to " walk the dog" to the tune of 25-50. I have to think that Saez's job will be to set an honest pace. Assuming he does, I can go through this race 10 times from every direction and will still come up with the horse I see as the best in the group. Renegade.
Now I do not want to sound like I am making excuses for him in the Derby. He got run down from the 1/8th pole fair and square. But he was beaten up pretty good in that first 1/8th mile out of the gate. Not unexpected from then dreaded 1 post in then Derby, but he certainly was. From what I saw, it looked like Irad wanted to get out of that by riding away somewhat early and maybe lay 10th-12th early. But, didn't happen. He ran great. He just got beat. I would be surprised if he gets beat in the Belmont. I just think several things point to the fact that he just better. He will need some pace to run into though, as all closers do.

When I looked at the Derby,

I was ready to look no

further than #1.

When I looked at the

Preakness I was to

look no further

than #1

Haven't looked

at Belmont yet

I wonder who

is #1 ?

[str]

So as you go through the Belmont Stakes, you will see that there is not a ton of early speed. Todd noticed that as well. So while there are only a couple of horses that would like to be up close and slow things down, one of them is in here to make sure the pace is honest. Powershift will not allow Growth Equity or anyone to " walk the dog" to the tune of 25-50. I have to think that Saez's job will be to set an honest pace. Assuming he does, I can go through this race 10 times from every direction and will still come up with the horse I see as the best in the group. Renegade.
Now I do not want to sound like I am making excuses for him in the Derby. He got run down from the 1/8th pole fair and square. But he was beaten up pretty good in that first 1/8th mile out of the gate. Not unexpected from then dreaded 1 post in then Derby, but he certainly was. From what I saw, it looked like Irad wanted to get out of that by riding away somewhat early and maybe lay 10th-12th early. But, didn't happen. He ran great. He just got beat. I would be surprised if he gets beat in the Belmont. I just think several things point to the fact that he just better. He will need some pace to run into though, as all closers do.

[str]

guessing you might have seen str that rick dutrow's horse won impressively the stake race "party in the army" was in .. looks like he has a real talented runner on his hands

Sometimes people take what I am going to say the wrong way. They should not. What I want to say, though, is that as brilliant as Richard Dutrow Senior was in all aspects of training, I always felt his very best situation was managing a sprinter.
The things, many, in hindsight, as I got older, that he did with sprinters, and not just speed sprinters, but closures as well, was ridiculous.
If I could request for any trainer to train an army mule, it would be Ricky. Can’t wait to see what happens.

[JBEX]

#4 paige turner (army mule ) goes in R2 at saratoga thursday .. it's a listed sprint stakes for 3yo fillies and her ml is 4-1
4th/6 [7-2]

[JBEX]

guessing you might have seen str that rick dutrow's horse won impressively the stake race "party in the army" was in .. looks like he has a real talented runner on his hands

[str]

Time to start looking at the Belmont pp’s.
being as the oldest horse has won the first two legs of the triple crown we will start with that.
No surprise there. Renegade is the youngest.
Tomorrow, we will get into the post positions and a look at the pace scenario. Always one of the most important aspects to understand.

[JBEX]

yes I remember you saying that prior to the oaklawn handicap and of course it still makes sense now .. journalism will probably start off as a high fee stallion with all his credentials of pedigree and race record .. this would look great on his resume as aside from the breeders cup and triple crown races this and the whitney at saratoga carry the most weight (no pun intended) in my opinion

should have mentioned the travers also

[JBEX]

I think that getting away from his rival is an excellent idea. I mentioned that a while back. Too me, they should meet one more time which would be the Classic in Nov. Everything to gain, nothing to lose. I really like the strategy.

yes I remember you saying that prior to the oaklawn handicap and of course it still makes sense now .. journalism will probably start off as a high fee stallion with all his credentials of pedigree and race record .. this would look great on his resume as aside from the breeders cup and triple crown races this and the whitney at saratoga carry the most weight (no pun intended) in my opinion

[str]

said after the oaklawn handicap 4/18 .. that's where he's running Saturday .. R11 #7 journalism (5-2)

I think that getting away from his rival is an excellent idea. I mentioned that a while back. Too me, they should meet one more time which would be the Classic in Nov. Everything to gain, nothing to lose. I really like the strategy.

[JBEX]

it's interesting that as much as they both accomplished in their 3yo seasons there's still things that can be learned by them as 4 year olds .. I guess by 5 with a reasonable amount of races most will have developed the racetrack savvy they'll need to handle a lot of adverse situations .. be great if these 2 hung around for a 5yo campaign but doubt that will happen with all the stallion money in front of them .. possibly the middle east race $$ might make the connections think twice about early retirement .. sure they'll both improve going forward with this experience in them

I agree white abarrio will be an underlay next out .. serious beyer (111) for the race so both SOV and JOU also had big figures.. think off that race JOU might be an interesting candidate for the met mile on the belmont stakes undercard at saratoga .. one way to probably not meet up with SOV next out.. whatever path these 3 decide to go the big races over the summer will be a lot of fun to watch

said after the oaklawn handicap 4/18 .. that's where he's running saturday .. R11 #7 journalism (5-2)

[JBEX]

getting hammered... but the will pays and exotics don't really back it up.... except a 5/ 8 dd

yes the will-pays are a better ,no pun, gage what he'll wind up .. only a small % of the total pool in a few minutes or more into the betting

[batt33]

against indiana breds always a shot and was able to break maiden in his 2nd start .. figure a,little low but that's where you get some value

getting hammered... but the will pays and exotics don't really back it up.... except a 5/ 8 dd

[JBEX]

#5 honorabledischarge looks interesting!

against indiana breds always a shot and was able to break maiden in his 2nd start .. figure a,little low but that's where you get some value

[batt33]

The Preakness winner was just sold.

Do you think the buyers know that no winner made up more than 3 lengths all day on the dirt ?
And, no horse won without an inside position?

Just a comment about selling a "hot horse" As much as we love horses... I always remember my cousin saying " take the money" while you can if the opportunity presents itself...

While some "big owners" don't have to worry about that option a lot of lower mid level owners/trainers do....

I remember my cousin "pinhooked" a horse for 13,000 for a client .she went on to win a grade 2 race and defeated the champion filly of that year( yeah I was in Reno for that race! oh what fun!) and an opportunity presented itself.

The owner was going back and forth ... he ended up selling the horse ..... she went to a "big named trainer"

brought back for her next year she never regained the form., and was retired as a broodmare.

On the other side "straight no chaser" was going to be sold after his pimilco win.... but in the vetting process an issue was found. so the buyer backed out. MRH decided to give STR some time off and the rest is history!

[batt33]

[QUOTE=str;n29938880]

Originally posted by batt33
Whiz Kidd 120K yearling purchase( pretty high for a calbred) Nice series of works for the first time starter including a 35.2 (3/38) on the 24th. trainer has pretty good stats with MD..claimers first time starters

JBEX:
a little negative he was up for sale and starting a bit late in his career though .. useful race and it looked to me like he didn't switch leads


This combined analysis was spot on. Both you guys nailed it. Real good jobs with that !

Always good to have different looks(opinions) as that may take the blinders off from being so focused on certain aspects of handicapping.

[batt33]

army mule running at saratoga tomorrow in R8 which is the mike lee stakes..
#3 party in the army (12-1) 4:38

since I'm mentioning that , one going today at horseshoe in a statebred allowance..
#5 honorabledischarge (10-1) 4:45

posted both in my thread

#5 honorabledischarge looks interesting!

[JBEX]

army mule running at saratoga tomorrow in R8 which is the mike lee stakes..
#3 party in the army (12-1) 4:38
3rd/9 [39 -1] half length 2nd

since I'm mentioning that , one going today at horseshoe in a statebred allowance..
#5 honorabledischarge (10-1) 4:45
out [6-1]

posted both in my thread

[JBEX]

put it up ,lost it, put it up again and it stayed..just a guess but maybe the little "1" (power of) might have thrown it off