Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

having trouble posting a response to a quote..above was just the beginning .. maybe try later

try again


champagne obviously was impressive but they went to the half in 44 + with a sub 22 second quarter.. understand it's a grade 1 but still a 2yo in october ?? if they ran the cigar mile with that fraction i'd be impressed

put both races together and does make me a little skeptical in spite of what I said .. might be a good play against next out

[str]

having trouble posting a response to a quote..above was just the beginning .. maybe try later

That was my problem the other day .
it did work for this.

[JBEX]

having trouble posting a response to a quote..above was just the beginning .. maybe try later

[JBEX]

Oh sure. I'm not criticizing at all. Just wonder if they factored all that in. I'm really not sure how far biases and such have come forward in thought process the last 25 years. I know that it was hardly at all recognized by the majority back when, and if it was, it was often misdiagnosed. Should be interesting for sure. BTW, great opinions from you and Batt a couple of posts back. Very well done IMO !

thanks str


champagne obviously was impressive but they went to the half in 44

[str]

you'd have to think to pay whatever large sum they did they might be aware of that ..probably give them a little bargaining leverage because going forward that's important to know as far as his future racing career

aside from that like his resume with the big debut win at saratoga and the crushing follow-up in the champagne .. maybe took him a couple of races to get acclimated to 2 turns and then notches the preakness .. not the easiest trip in the wood memorial either being pressed on the rail of a fast pace

Oh sure. I'm not criticizing at all. Just wonder if they factored all that in. I'm really not sure how far biases and such have come forward in thought process the last 25 years. I know that it was hardly at all recognized by the majority back when, and if it was, it was often misdiagnosed. Should be interesting for sure. BTW, great opinions from you and Batt a couple of posts back. Very well done IMO !

[JBEX]

The Preakness winner was just sold.

Do you think the buyers know that no winner made up more than 3 lengths all day on the dirt ?
And, no horse won without an inside position?

you'd have to think to pay whatever large sum they did they might be aware of that ..probably give them a little bargaining leverage because going forward that's important to know as far as his future racing career

aside from that like his resume with the big debut win at saratoga and the crushing follow-up in the champagne .. maybe took him a couple of races to get acclimated to 2 turns and then notches the preakness .. not the easiest trip in the wood memorial either being pressed on the rail of a fast pace

[str]

The Preakness winner was just sold.

Do you think the buyers know that no winner made up more than 3 lengths all day on the dirt ?
And, no horse won without an inside position?

[str]

[QUOTE=batt33;n29938710]


Originally posted by batt33
Whiz Kidd 120K yearling purchase( pretty high for a calbred) Nice series of works for the first time starter including a 35.2 (3/38) on the 24th. trainer has pretty good stats with MD..claimers first time starters

JBEX:
a little negative he was up for sale and starting a bit late in his career though .. useful race and it looked to me like he didn't switch leads


This combined analysis was spot on. Both you guys nailed it. Real good jobs with that !

[str]

Seems to be fine now Opti. Thanks for the effort. Couldn’t message either but can now I can.

[Optional]

I'm getting 403 error codes when trying to post. I'm clueless.

Haven't seen the issue from here but will report

[str]

I'm getting 403 error codes when trying to post. I'm clueless.

[batt33]

a little negative he was up for sale and starting a bit late in his career though .. useful race and it looked to me like he didn't switch leads

I'll have to watch the race again... pretty much one paced.... This is true on the sale price.

[JBEX]

Whiz Kidd 120K yearling purchase( pretty high for a calbred) Nice series of works for the first time starter including a 35.2 (3/38) on the 24th. trainer has pretty good stats with MD..claimers first time starters

a little negative he was up for sale and starting a bit late in his career though .. useful race and it looked to me like he didn't switch leads

[batt33]

another by army mule going in R4 santa anita .. #6 whiz kidd (4-1) @ 5:32 .. statebred mcl $50k

Whiz Kidd 120K yearling purchase( pretty high for a calbred) Nice series of works for the first time starter including a 35.2 (3/38) on the 24th. trainer has pretty good stats with MD..claimers first time starters

[JBEX]

army mule going in R9 at churchill..mcl $50k turf route and her 1st time doing both .. #7 debby's gal (6-1) @ 4:55

out [5-1]

another by army mule going in R4 santa anita .. #6 whiz kidd (4-1) @ 5:32 .. statebred mcl $50k

out [7-1]

[JBEX]

army mule going in R9 at churchill..mcl $50k turf route and her 1st time doing both .. #7 debby's gal (6-1) @ 4:55

[str]

With a week to go before the Belmont, I want to draw attention to who is running so far. I only see names and I certainly don't know the individuals like I used to, so everyone do check out the early pace. The Derby had a pace collapse and closers finished up in front. The Preakness also had a hot early pace But... No horse made up more than 2-3 lengths all day to win any race on the dirt. So... now we are at the Belmont and the favorites are deep closers. Without a fair pace, they will be very much compromised. Do spend some time on who might be in front early, or very close to a cheap speed and take a long look at those in the forward position. We know who the best horse or horses are . Now try and locate the horse that will benefit most from what looks to be a slow non tiring early pace. Be prepared before the fact and all this will come together well before the actual race.
The best horse doesn't always win. The pace makes most races and the Belmont is no exception.

[str]

str I'm wondering if i hijacked you. Please accept my apologies if i was thinking more like a broke dikk fukk. More importantly, thanks for this heroic, lionesque, Sun Tzu-like masterpiece.
Book forthcoming?

No apology necessary sir. This thread was created to help players that enjoy a game I love and lived for about 30 years. I hope someone can help you. I just don't bet very often anymore and have not kept up with todays wagering options.
Most of my attention is towards my company I run, my family I love, and a non profit I am starting to help aid any former racetrack workers who are now too old to continue at the rugged pace needed to perform at the track on a daily basis. That non profit, named Stable Footing, Inc., while now legal but in it's infancy, is to help support all those people that you never heard of that without their work, and sacrifice, there would be no game whatsoever. Hopefully I will have more information on that in the near future.

In the meantime, good luck with your question and if there is anything I can do to help you better understand the game, you know where to find be.

All the best ,

STR

[str]

Apologies in advance- been away for several years and tried searching to no avail.

1. One of BOL, BAS or Bovada used to allow decimal point bets- you could type .xx - wasn't specifically stated but would work for exotics. I think littlekona once posted this. And maybe this went away with new skin / old skin available for awhile but no more?

2. Some still offer Horse Matchups on big days?

3. For US players no more Lay available- even if only for UK racing?

4. Asian xchanges or others no longer recommended for US players?

TIA

I am afraid that I am no help on this subject. However, the readers within here might be able to help you . I am hopeful, that if someone CAN answer you questions, a reader will answer. Please, anyone feel free to respond.

[acquavallo]

str I'm wondering if i hijacked you. Please accept my apologies if i was thinking more like a broke dikk fukk. More importantly, thanks for this heroic, lionesque, Sun Tzu-like masterpiece.
Book forthcoming?

[acquavallo]

Apologies in advance- been away for several years and tried searching to no avail.

1. One of BOL, BAS or Bovada used to allow decimal point bets- you could type .xx - wasn't specifically stated but would work for exotics. I think littlekona once posted this. And maybe this went away with new skin / old skin available for awhile but no more?

2. Some still offer Horse Matchups on big days?

3. For US players no more Lay available- even if only for UK racing?

4. Asian xchanges or others no longer recommended for US players?

TIA

[str]

aaand since it's memorial day and sports ... NEVER EVER gets old
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1594320831992582

This is incredible !

[batt33]

aaand since it's memorial day and sports ... NEVER EVER gets old

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1594320831992582

[batt33]

a good card at lone star .. 7 stakes races .. both ortiz brothers and luis saez there

need to look now.. praiven at sa so watching that

[batt33]

You serve and protect

willingly batt.

Right on, fireman can get burned,

fuk that.

How's your dad,

I miss my horse

lover father, I regress.

Stay safe we need U here,

Cal. needs U there.

BOL chief.

Thanks BOA dad is hanging in there....doing better with the stent...

[BOA12]

a good card at lone star .. 7 stakes races .. both ortiz brothers and luis saez there

Ten4.

Will look again.

[JBEX]

a good card at lone star .. 7 stakes races .. both ortiz brothers and luis saez there

[JBEX]

Is this LS race today J ?

I don't see on either site I use.

looks like tvg doesn't have it .. I don't look at that track much

[BOA12]

an army mule in a stakes race at lone star R10 #9 master mule (4-1) ... also one at churchill R7 #11 army wildcatter (20-1)

Is this LS race today J ?

I don't see on either site I use.

[BOA12]

Best post of the day in this thread STR! "And on this Memorial day, be sure and thank a veteran for their service. Without them, life might be completely different for all of us. It's a luxury for all of us to have the time and the freedom to discuss gambling today, or any day and that luxury was and IS provided by all those that served your country."
I thank a veteran every time I see them... the ball cap gives them away! They sometimes ask did you serve? No sir... Just a wildland firefighter...Much respect back and forth....

You serve and protect

willingly batt.

Right on, fireman can get burned,

fuk that.

How's your dad,

I miss my horse

lover father, I regress.

Stay safe we need U here,

Cal. needs U there.

BOL chief.

[batt33]

Bacio: Workout



Bacio breezed this morning at Keeneland, going five furlongs in 1:00.80 in preparation for his start across the pond. He continues to train extremely well.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG1980_1779720986459/MP4/IMG1980_1779720986459.mp4

[batt33]

Best post of the day in this thread STR! "And on this Memorial day, be sure and thank a veteran for their service. Without them, life might be completely different for all of us. It's a luxury for all of us to have the time and the freedom to discuss gambling today, or any day and that luxury was and IS provided by all those that served your country."
I thank a veteran every time I see them... the ball cap gives them away! They sometimes ask did you serve? No sir... Just a wildland firefighter...Much respect back and forth....

[str]

Only $100 horse I ever "capped"

was the finale at

Belmont in the slop

with my last $2.

Speed and the lead

nobody within 2

lengths the entire trip.

Otherwise, slop not been my friend

as a general rule.

I always felt that on a sloppy track, everything is different. Like a day when it snowed all day when you were a kid.
try and be selective. See things differently. Analyze the results and see if you missed something. Not that you did but eliminate the possibility.
if you treat it like a novelty and approach it differently, you might see things you normally wouldn’t.
just give it a chance. You might be amazed. I know I was and still am sometimes. Last years Met Mile comes to mind.

[JBEX]

an army mule in a stakes race at lone star R10 #9 master mule (4-1) ... also one at churchill R7 #11 army wildcatter (20-1)

[BOA12]

Hi Nasher,

As you know, sloppy and muddy tracks can have extreme biases. They all don't, but enough of them do. Trying to prepare a depth of the track with heavy rain forecasted in never easy for the track superintendent. Sometimes, those in charge make it look easy, but it is not.

Speed usually has an edge going into any sloppy race because it is so easy to be on the lead, and so hard to navigate the wet mud flying back at the rider and of course, the horse. Then you have the question about footing. Does the horse trust the footing? If not, the form should show that. If so, it will show that as well. In spots like yesterday, if a handicapper does not rely heavily on the horses improvement or lessening ability on a wet surface, they are not using the tools in their belt. For that part of it, it is this simple. Some horses completely trust the mud and or wet. Others do not to varying degrees. Those that do not perform well on sloppy tracks are typically an auto toss for me. If there is no form, their breeding can suggest likes or dislikes.

Question: You know how we walk on ice when we don't trust the footing? We walk with the bulk of our weight UP. In our shoulders or midsection so as to be able to react to slipping better. Well, that is exactly what a horse will do if they do not trust it. And that makes them slow. Just like it makes us slow. But... steady , right? That's the old saying. And its a saying for a reason. It's true. Same with horses. A young apprentice rider is not as seasoned with using goggles when on a closer and probably wishes he/she had done a better job after the race win or lose with those goggles. A veteran does not have that problem. All that stuff adds up. And in gambling, as you know, all those little things DO add up over a large enough sample size.
So... whenever we bet, we are simply trying to slant the odds in our favor right? So playing against a bug rider who is on a closer in the slop at very low odds, might be well worth the risk.

It's rarely one thing that helps make a bet a good play or a bad one. It's the culmination of slanting enough odds per occurrence in your favor to make the investment well worth the risk. I know you know that Nasher. I do as well. But hopefully someone will read this and benefit from it.
I do enjoy trying to point things out to other gamblers that are simply an effort to get the odds more in a players favor than typically. It took a lot of years to learn to understand that stuff for many a "seasoned" player. This is definitely that, in horse racing.

Remember, Measure twice, cut once. And if you are mad after losing a wager, don't be mad at yourself. Learn from it and chalk it up to life's tuition to higher learning. It's the same mistake over again that should make you mad. Not a learning moment ,as long as you do learn from it.

And on this Memorial day, be sure and thank a veteran for their service. Without them, life might be completely different for all of us. It's a luxury for all of us to have the time and the freedom to discuss gambling today, or any day and that luxury was and IS provided by all those that served your country.

Good luck everyone. Feel free to follow up if you have any questions.

Only $100 horse I ever "capped"

was the finale at

Belmont in the slop

with my last $2.

Speed and the lead

nobody within 2

lengths the entire trip.

Otherwise, slop not been my friend

as a general rule.