Off topic on this one but... in the NFL, where I was born and raised a Redskin fan which lasted until ,Snyder bought then team and destroyed it, I have now, virtually overnight become a fan of a new team. Don't get me wrong, I love watching the NFL and every team. I'm an NFL fan, not a Commanders fan necessarily, although I have come to really like the head coach, but anyway, believe it or not I as of today after reading what the owner of the Phila. Eagles family did, in donating 50 Million dollars to Autism research, and not the first time as they have donated a ton over the years, but 50 Million in one shot, I am now a Eagles fan. It doesn't feel right to say the city name with Eagles, LOLOL, but anyway, I appreciate the owners gesture so much that I will absolutely be rooting for them in the future. Always liked Barkley anyway so what the heck.
Have a great day everyone. Find a winner !
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This "Deterministic Race" was my best confidence race of the day. I didn't spread enough as I only could see 5 horses. I just played around with .20 supers, keying the 2 Integration and the 9 Far Bridge with the 1,5,6. Damm 6 killed me (no show) as the 8 grabbed 4th and the 1 Endlessly (who I got hung on) failed. Reflection always painful after I saw the 259 tri payoff.
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thanks str
didn't work out as a derby future (which is how it started) but turned out to be a really nice horse ..it is interesting how they changed his running style this year .. maybe busting out for the lead in that off the turf race at kee made them see he is capable of doing it up front as well as stalking
still would love to see him on a fast dirt track but at this point that's not going to happen .. the fact he did that at such a high level in his first 2 starts will probably be a positive factor in marketing him as a stallion which I think he will eventually be
if they are pointing for the bc turf which I believe at dmr is 1 3/8 miles I'm guessing the bowling green (at saratoga) on 7/12 might be the next logical stop .. that's also at the same distance as the bc..heck maybe they're even considering the bc turf mile as a possible goal but I don't think so ..be interesting to see what path they'll go with him
very touching win for the family and connections of the horse who it was said were very close to christohe' also .. he's certainly more than a deserving candidate for the hall of fame and a shame he didn't get in while he was alive
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Here is something I want to be sure and point out to fans who saw the Met Mile on Saturday.
Let me start by saying that I do not know these horses individually. Don't know any more than I have seen of them on TV . But from what I have seen, I concluded that both Fierceness and White Albarrio are a little quirky in their individual likes and dislikes. I saw this because I watched White Albarrio when Ricky had him and it seemed too me that there were things he did not really care for. Every race was not the same in that sometimes it seemed like the effort was differing from race to race and alot of that differing was IMO because of different situations the horse was in.
I saw Fierceness run somewhat the same ways. It was my feeling, right or wrong, that both horses do prefer no kickback or as little as possible kickback and seem to want to be clear of dirt and a clean right eye. Again, maybe it just looked like that but that was my impression.
So when I saw that they had drawn the 1 and 2 post going out of that severe half turn leaving the chute at Saratoga and knowing both had speed but in perfect worlds would be fine laying just off a leader and running by them late, I looked at the rest of the field and what showed up? The box showed up. Meaning, the 5 horse had speed and with that chute and turn coming, and neither the 1 or the 2 wanting to grab the lead but with a decent early turn of foot, this race had a chance to come together for the 5 horse, again, the horse with the BOX.
Watch the rerun and watch the rider on the 5 horse ride away with elbows flying wanting to get ahead of those 2 inside monsters and drop over enough to kick some mud back and have them checking ever so slightly when they hit that elbow. That is exactly what happened. Even better for the 5 horse was, the 1 and the 2 bumped a bit finding position and again, neither horse wants that stuff. They are both IMO a bit finicky when it comes to that.
So were they the 2 best horses in the race. Heck yes!
But not with the outside horse with the box, having a plan to do exactly what the rider did which was to make them both uncomfortable, which the rider on the 5 horse did masterfully.
I know, after the race you tell us. Sorry guys. That's not the point. The point is , please please, start handicapping and looking for how a race will likely unfold and ALWAYS check for a box type situation when coming out of any chute, especially that Wilson chute at Saratoga which can be brutal on inside horses when situations like this set up as well as highly advantageous to the horse with tactical speed AND the box. IMO, if fierceness has the 5 post and the winner had the 1 post, Fierceness wins IMO. I would say the same about White Albarrio but he has seemed to kind of get lost around the far turn at times at times and he looked it again on Saturday.
Here is the race. Watch 3 times . Once watch the 1 from the break until it clears the chute and straightens away down the backside. Then, watch the 2 do the same thing. Then watch the 5 do it. That race was won in the first 24 seconds folks.
The 1 and 2 horse bump slightly but watch the jock on the 1 horse flick his stick on the shoulder of Fierceness just as the mud flies back and the 5 crosses in front of him. See that? Fierceness hesitated and the jock had to make him stop thinking for himself about the rail and the mud and get his head back on task. Sooo cool to see that and realize that when Fierceness runs back, he will be better than last Saturday. And the winner? I can't see how he could be any better than he was on Saturday.
That is HUGE.
I hope you can see what I am talking about.
Last edited by str; 06-09-25, 08:59 AM.Leave a comment:
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Deterministic !!!!
A Great call by JBEX from way back when this horse was a maiden.
What an extremely emotional week or two for the Clement family.
To see that horse relax, wait for commands and fight off others late is a true testament to perfection when it comes to a trainers ability to fix what is often times for other trainers, the unfixable.
What a sensational race. I'm so happy for the family and connections.
Rest in Peace Christopher. See you in the Hall of Fame very soon.Leave a comment:
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with CM even though he started out (3 starts) sensationally as a 2yo running 1 turn races think they might have given up on routing too quick
here's why I say that
1st attempt at 2 turns is the bc juvenile from the furthest outside post off a long cross country ship preceding it ..not easy circumstances
tampa bay derby wasn't bad and compromised imo by a very slow pace
bluegrass only lost by 4+ lengths and a bit of a wide trip between horses .. even if there weren't many excuses here I could still give him 1 more shot off the circumstances in his previous two
I have a hunch with some experience going 2 turns in him and a little mental health freshening from this race he might take to it in a listed or lower level graded stakes .. a specialty allowance condition (time,distance or both)even better
looks like they moved the manhattan stakes (deterministic) to the inner turf which required it to be shortened a half furlong to 1 1/8 miles..post time 7:12
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Well so much for trying to beat the best horses in the Belmont. Somethings I'll never learn I guess.
Chancer McPatrick: He is lost IMO. It just isn't there. The only thing I would do would be to find a spot he could win going 1 turn no matter how weak the field. Heck with the purse, hw needs to get his head right. Shame to see and I totally understand the path they took, but drastic times call for drastic measures and I feel that that is where he is now.
Had a nice day going and bet more than we should have on him to win. But, you never stop learning in this game .
On a different note, I saw a lot of people (not here)complaining about taking the races off the turf and cancelling the two grade 1"s. I don't agree with that complaining at all.
It doesn't matter if the sun was out when the race was going to run. The turf course was deemed totally unsafe for all the horses. As much as it sucked for everybody, it was not just the right call, but the only call under the circumstances. Do people that are complaining think management wanted to cancel two Grade 1's on Belmont day at Saratoga? C'mon man.
Too bad but what if it was worse?Leave a comment:
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We are up 66.00 on the day betting 10 and 20 a race.
20 win #3
20 win #6
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I saw Deterministic was in today as well. Have not seen even a glance of his race yet as my printer will not cooperate so I guess I have to buy the form when I get there. Long time between forms for me. Lol.
I'm kind of excited to get a ton of printers ink on by hands again.Leave a comment:
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army mule saturday
cd 2 (1:14) #5 hope restored (5-1)
parx 4 (1:26) #1 la de peluche (5-2)
cd 11 (5:58) #3 colonel caliente (7-2)Leave a comment:
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nice to see chancer back at 1 turn and where it all started for him..too bad it'll be sloppy though
deterministic goes in the following race and the turf is yielding..ran well in his 2nd try on the turf on a good track there so hopefully he'll take to even more give .. good luck todayLeave a comment:
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Well it's off to Laurel again today to see by friends and try and win a few bucks at the same time.
I have a lot to look at and the track condition is iffy as of now so we shall see.
I will try and post my pick for the Belmont with more than 1 minute to post this time.
I went through most of the card quickly just to get an overview and was pleasantly surprised to see our boy Chancer ** Patrick back in a one turn race going 7/8ths at Saratoga. I hope he reverts back to his old ways and finds his place back early, and in front late. Have to look at the field but cannot imagine I bet against him going that distance especially with following him and wanting to see this for a while now.
I'll check back later if anyone has a question about todays races.
Good luck everyone.Leave a comment:
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army mule ..friday
gulfstream 1 @ 12:50
#6 army medic (10-1)
saratoga 4 @ 1:28
#5 army gal (5-2)
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One other thing you might try as you watch races set up/. Turn down the announcer. Not necessarily all the way but turn it down and do not actively listen to them. Sure, you can hear it, but don't follow it as your first sense. Use your eyes and watch the horses and where you predicted them to be. If you bet, you are drawn to that horse. But if you don't, it might take a few days, but learn to give each horse and rider a glance constantly. Make your primary sense your eyes, NOT your ears. One will always be dominate, make it your eyes and watching and scanning a race front to back, front to back, and then as things go on. It is a different way to see the races and one that I found to help me see many more things than I previously did.
It's kind of amazing how the watching of the race changes away from your ears to your eyes.
This does work. Give it a shot.
Again, no bet in the race. Just any race. See what more you can see. Just keep scanning front to back, front to back about every 5-8 seconds early on in the race.
Any feedback from anyone is great to hear.Leave a comment:
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Well yes, a few do. But make no mistake. In this game you always hear about the wins. Not much talk about the losses.
That was what I found intriguing when I was betting in high school. It told me that the answer was probably not very many.
One thing I learned early and it was a big help for me was, when you bet and lose, see if you know afterwards why? Like, did your speed horse break terribly or did I not expect some others in the race to show as much speed as they did. If so, that could be a correctable error.
Most times, we throw our tickets away and move on to the next race. But I found there is quite a bit of information sometimes to be learned for next time.
So maybe try betting every other race on a typical day of racing. Go back and watch the replay afterwards and see what was different than how you thought it would be.
That leads to the first thing I will recommend.
Set the race up on paper beforehand and see if you are right afterwards. If you can get it fairly right, that is huge. Learning to see the race as it runs prior to it running can identify solo speed or a big speed duel with a solid closer or whatever.
Wont happen every race but it will happen. That’s a step towards being able to see things others don’t see.
Try that and even practice it on tV without bets and that will be a great start.
I think it is really key to figure out how each horse will most likely fair in how the race unfolds.
Let me know when you have tried that and we can take the next step.
Hope that helps.Leave a comment:
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i don't consider that as an evaluation of my handicapping
I play way too many longshots ..double digit ml's that wind up going off huge odds and that won't cut it long haul .. imo you have to be effective in the 3 to 8-1 range and honestly don't feel I am .. way too many picks also ..would I approach it the same way now if I had the money and time now ..absolutely not but I think all in ,which is obviously not going to happen, I come up short ..I don't "completely" rule out having the time and resources that I couldn't do it .. in all fairness though hypotheticals don't matter .. you either do it or you don't and I haven't
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Hey Jbex as long as you have been in the game it is clear to me that you are not at that level. After 40+ years you would know. Imo. Neither am I after playing seriously for 13+ years. We are average handicappers who also don't have the bankroll the heavy hitters have at their disposal. Tough game it is.Leave a comment:
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from what I've read over the years long term estimates are in the low single digits ..besides talent requires a tremendous amount of time and attention to details that most people (including myself) don't want to do.. to be honest even if I put in the effort have my doubts whether I'm at that level..also need significant bankroll ..there are probably exceptions to this but generally I think this is fairly accurate assessmentLeave a comment:
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I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?Leave a comment:
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With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.
Salty old 50k claimers.
Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.
This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.
Give him a long look.
Good luck today sir.Leave a comment:
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