Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

thought you might find interesting str..baq 1 a 2yo msw run at 1 mile

rick dutrow has the ml favorite 6 igniter (2-1) going up against 3 real expensive horses including a $5M yearling purchase 3 courting (3-1) trained by pletcher..the other 2 expensive ones 7 (6-1) and 8 (12-1) are trained by chad brown

A mile is interesting. Starting off at that distance usually suggests the horse does not have a early turn of foot. Maybe not supposed to with the breeding but, it is a clue.

Ricks horse looks like it will be tough in there. You never know with Todd and Chad if the horse is a monster but if so, I would tend to think they would have run shorter, like 7/8ths if that was possible.

Remember, Ricks horse will most likely be better today than his last race. That is how we were taught. That's probably the deal here.

Thanks for the heads up. Should be fun to watch all of them run.

[JBEX]

thought you might find interesting str..baq 1 a 2yo msw run at 1 mile

rick dutrow has the ml favorite 6 igniter (2-1) going up against 3 real expensive horses including a $5M yearling purchase 3 courting (3-1) trained by pletcher..the other 2 expensive ones 7 (6-1) and 8 (12-1) are trained by chad brown

[JBEX]

saturday by army mule
(baq,churchill,gulfstream,santa anita or stakes)

(post 11229 record)



baq 3 (1:36)
3 shadow dragon (8-1)


delaware 8 (4:46) stakes
1 discreet ops (5-1)

[str]

For everyone to understand what we are talking about, here is the quote we were talking About.

This was not my quote but what someone else had said.:

i've ran a 'few' times into a horse that looked great, only to find out too late that the trainer was using the race as exercise, because the horse's next race was the real deal. Is there a way to weed out these type of efforts, and (probably not) is there a way to know the horse's next planned race?

So, there are two ways to interpret this IMO. First, pulling a horse or simply not trying in order to cash a bet down the road.

Honestly, I think a lot of that stuff fizzled out in the early seventies. I still saw glimpses or heard talk of it even as late as when I first started training in "1976" from old, small time, trainers running in very cheap races. But honest to God, I don't know if they ever actually won and cashed a ticket. They never won to speak of and it was almost always a bunch of crap.

But there is another way to look at it, that can be very beneficial to the handicapper, but it like all that other stuff is speculation and guess work. What I am talking about is the highest end of racing and especially bringing up horses to the triple crown races.

Sometimes you see a horse run a very complete race in late February or early March and they are a solid choice for the Ky. Derby. They just ran great and the trainer wishes the Derby was next, but it is not. They have all the points they need to run but need to run one more race before the big one.
In that case, when that horse runs back in early April somewhere, if he is coming off his all time best race, and needs to run one more before the Derby, a trainer is likely to not tighten the screws, so to speak, more, for that last prep. The idea is to be able to tighten those screws one more time going in to the Derby, NOT one race before the Derby. In that particular case, you might see a horse not at 100% for that last prep race. Let me say, NO, he isn't being stiffed. No, he isn't trying to cash a ticket on another horse. No, no, no.
The trainer is simply trying to get the last prep out of the way to hit peak on Derby day. Often times, these top horses can beat the opposition without being at their absolute best. But if they happen to lose, finish second or close but just get beat, there is room to be at it's very best next out.
That is pretty much common sense if you think about it, but, someone, a person that is betting, might misconstrue what I'm saying as they are not trying. Of course they are, but they want the horse perfect for next time.
Look at it like a team that is up 3-0 in a best of seven series. Are they over the moon mentally ready for game 4? No. They might very well win, as they are clearly better, but they are not as mentally geared up as they might be for game 7.

Knowing this might save you from betting on a odds on horse in the race before the BIG race they are pointing for, or, it might help you find a secondary horse who would LOVE to win that last prep knowing that they will most likely be 15-1 or worse in the huge next race.

I hope that makes sense.

[ProSportsEdge]

Honestly I think this might happen to some degree in harness racing, but I do not know for sure, but if it is happening anywhere in flat racing other than some rinky dink track as small and backwards as Charlestown at least and probably less than that , I would be stunned. For a trainer to say something like that at let's say Pimlico , Del. Park , Parx. is simply unheard of. In my time it did not exist. If you could give me more info as to who would do this or where the race took place I could better speak too it. Please let me know.

Yeah, I hear you on that. You’d almost never see something like that at Pimlico, Parx, or Delaware Park—it’d be way too out of place. Charlestown or some of the really small circuits though, I wouldn’t be shocked if stuff like that slipped through. Curious myself if anyone’s actually seen it firsthand.

[str]

Nice to see him on the track Batt.
Glad you’re feeling better now. It took me 2 + months to get back to just about normal.
Whatever’s going around is tough to shake.
Stay well my friend.

[batt33]

Hey all ! hope things are well trying to catch up...... long fire... followed by me being sick and then my parents..... kinda took the air out of me....
I had a horse win yesterday " sweet voyage" that I have talked about before... had some set backs dropped to a level to give her some confidence.. Hopefully it works..
STR here is an update on "Black tie affair" and finally how do I get some air back...... well how about going to watch "Straight no chaser"
Race this Sunday in the SA sprint championship! Watching it from the directors room! We get to do a backside tour and meet some of the horses and people who take care of them.
Hopefully back to posting more!

Black Tie Optional Update

We paid Black Tie Optional a visit this morning at Los Alamitos. The Baffert barn reports that he’s doing well and has been galloping soundly for a few weeks now. He will likely return to the work tab in the next 7-10 days. We are in no particular rush with him and will allow his Hall of Fame team to continue bringing him along as they see fit, but it sounds like that hiccup should be behind us and was just a case of typical “baby stuff.”

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG5480_1758815997209/MP4/IMG5480_1758815997209.mp4

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...8815997474.mp4

[JBEX]

friday by army mule

santa anita 2 (4:30)
3 saint mihiel (5-1)

[JBEX]

a 2nd and a scratch yesterday.. nothing today

[JBEX]

wednesday by army mule


churchill 1 (12:45)
5 master mule (10-1)

churchill 8 (4:19)
9 grade a (8-1)

[JBEX]

by army mule monday .. updated today 11229

finger lakes 8 (4:23)
4 party in the army (3-1)

2 year old stakes race

[JBEX]

sunday by army mule..updated today 11229

churchill 8 (4:19)
5 hillerito (5-2)

[str]

Great advice — starting slow and focusing on charts and replays is huge. Getting into a solid routine really does make all the difference over time. Appreciate you sharing that perspective.

Thanks.


It is nice to see that some advice has passed the test of time. As you read through I go into detail about trips horses get that are pluses or minuses and WHY.

It’s the minuses that are best focused on as they can produce overlay’s when they run back. The pluses are a close second because they often produce low prices next out that are very possibly play against horses if the new setup of the race is detrimental to their style.

If handicappers can focus on fewer tracks and refer to notes taken on horses that get great or bad trips, they can then cherry-pick plays from those and in most cases create a solid edge by simply knowing more than the other players do.

if a player is not sure of good or bad trips , it’s all in here. You just need to put in the time to read it, find it, write it down, and follow it.
This requires some patience but if you get the hang of it, it is almost surgical with its results.
Players that focus on having an edge and knowing it, thrive at the racetrack because 90% of those they bet against do not know how to do this.

Anyone that does this will most likely look back and think “where has this been all my life. “

Being as honest as I possibly can, when my best friend and I go to the track, maybe 1-2-3 times a year, we look at it like “ will we win a little or a good amount today ?
Losing never enters into the conversation. Break even is a bad day in our minds.
And while of course we can lose, and have before, it’s not very often and it’s never much . I can’t recall the last losing day. It’s there , but hasn’t been lately.

That is NOT a brag, I have no interest in that, it’s just the way it is and anyone reading this can do the same thing if they work for it.

It’s amazing! But make no mistake, I spent half a lifetime learning and still learn something almost every time I go to the track.
It is a surreal feeling if you are passionate about the races and enjoy learning something new every day.

I really hope that helps.

[JBEX]

added them to above post.. nothing else at other 3 tracks

[JBEX]

parx has their best card of the year tomorrow with 7 stakes including the pennsylvania derby and filly equivalent the cotillion

all 8 undercard races carry purses of $100k and they include two by army mule ..consider these like minor stakes races so going to include them in tomorrow's entries


parx 2 (11:35)
5 mission first (8-1)

parx 6 (1:31)
3 ceepeegee (4-1)

[ProSportsEdge]

This is where I might be behind in the times. There is soooo much info out there today that did not exist 10 years ago that I do not want to tell you the wrong thing. To my knowledge DRF.com ( Daily Racing Form) is still the leader in info. But be aware that their is SO much for you to learn and so many variables involved that if you bet more than 2.00 dollars a race at this point , I would say you are crazy. Probably best served to watch as many races as possible and just start to get a feel for the game.
So, with that said, please do me 2 favors.
1st. READ THE CHARTS of the races you watch the next day and review what you think you saw.
2nd. Learn to watch replays of every race you witness. Both angles. Even if you do not know what you are watching yet, you will see things along the way and become a better handicapper for it.
Most handicappers are only as good as there routine. Make sure that yours is better than the guys you are playing against , namely all the other bettors out there.
Keep me posted.

Great advice — starting slow and focusing on charts and replays is huge. Getting into a solid routine really does make all the difference over time. Appreciate you sharing that perspective.

[JBEX]

no army mule runners at our tracks friday

[str]

[QUOTE=ProSportsEdge;n29901320]
Totally understand — your insight on the training side is valuable. A lot of people overlook how much goes into those decisions beyond just the betting angles. That perspective really helps connect the dots.


It looks like you are going through this long and winding road of a thread. Fire away if you have any questions. Hope there is something there that helps.

[ProSportsEdge]

Not hijacking at all. My expertise as to the betting end is limited and outdated . It is the training end that I am best suited. I certainly expect plenty of betting questions and some of those I am not best suited for especially with the newer information that did not exist unless you created it yourself back in the day.
I have to think that people get confused as to why a trainer might do or not do things and why a horse did or did not do certain things.Understanding that pace is so important, etc.
Thanks for the help.

Totally understand — your insight on the training side is valuable. A lot of people overlook how much goes into those decisions beyond just the betting angles. That perspective really helps connect the dots.

[JBEX]

2nd day of this thread .. page 1 .. post 34

a search for "rinky dink track " got me there.. obviously,being it's an ancient post,he should have posted a reference date of the quote

[JBEX]

no army mule runners at our tracks thursday..today's result posted

[JBEX]

I thought that this next race might be it for him. I think that he could be a stallion that has a chance to surprise some people.
The initial peak into his talent never got to the heights that it potentially could have but his record is still solid. Might be a little under the radar and that’s ok. In a what have you done lately world we are in today, he has a chance to surprise.

What he did in that last 1/8th mile of his debut race is indeed extremely rare air.

Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

realize he did as well as you possibly can at saratoga as a 2yo but I wonder if he was just a little more ahead of the competition physically at that point .. then the others caught up with him as 3yos ..just kind of feel if they settled in with him as a 7f to 1 turn mile horse at aqueduct (and sure he'd get a crack at belmont next year) that he could've been a solid older horse .. making up ground on the wide belmont turns would favor his style don't you think ?

I'm not saying they should have done that (who the heck am I lol) but putting aside the stallion money could you see him doing well as a 4yo taking that path ?

[JBEX]

JBEX, I welcome mistakes from others every once in a while. Makes me feel like I have some company.

And I am confused on where that response of mine came from. Not sure what I was referring to .

2nd day of this thread .. page 1 .. post 34

[str]

just to clarify my initial response back to you was based on I thought for some reason you were referring to chancer mcpatrick with your response to str's post..not sure why I would think that based on what you said as it admittedly makes no sense ..the chad brown trainer and you tube replays is about CM .. again I apologize for the confusion I caused

JBEX, I welcome mistakes from others every once in a while. Makes me feel like I have some company.

And I am confused on where that response of mine came from. Not sure what I was referring to .

[JBEX]

Yeah, that makes sense — Chad Brown’s horses usually have all their races uploaded. You can just search the horse’s name on YouTube and they should pop right up.

just to clarify my initial response back to you was based on I thought for some reason you were referring to chancer mcpatrick with your response to str's post..not sure why I would think that based on what you said as it admittedly makes no sense ..the chad brown trainer and you tube replays is about CM .. again I apologize for the confusion I caused

[ProSportsEdge]

his trainer is chad brown..all his 2yo races (and probably 3yo also) are on you tube

Yeah, that makes sense — Chad Brown’s horses usually have all their races uploaded. You can just search the horse’s name on YouTube and they should pop right up.

[JBEX]

weds by army mule

churchill 1 (12:45)
7 brooklyn drew (5-2)

[JBEX]

his trainer is chad brown..all his 2yo races (and probably 3yo also) are on you tube

nevermind this response .. wrong context ..sorry

[str]

Totally — I’d be stunned to hear that at places like Pimlico, Del. Park or Parx. Sounds like something you’d only see at a tiny backwater track. Got a trainer name or race/date? I can dig into it.

Not sure where this comes from. Can you provide a page that this was on . I might have more info.
Thanks

[JBEX]

Totally — I’d be stunned to hear that at places like Pimlico, Del. Park or Parx. Sounds like something you’d only see at a tiny backwater track. Got a trainer name or race/date? I can dig into it.

his trainer is chad brown..all his 2yo races (and probably 3yo also) are on you tube

[JBEX]

I thought that this next race might be it for him. I think that he could be a stallion that has a chance to surprise some people.
The initial peak into his talent never got to the heights that it potentially could have but his record is still solid. Might be a little under the radar and that’s ok. In a what have you done lately world we are in today, he has a chance to surprise.

What he did in that last 1/8th mile of his debut race is indeed extremely rare air.

Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

no problem str

agree about his prospects as a stallion .. it was a sensational 3 races to start his career and obviously that operation knows what sets a horse up to be a successful stallion .. thought there were quite a few legit excuses for the subpar efforts he had .. joins kingsbarns and they have one of the best overall lineup of stallions in the industry

if he has a good effort in the bc I will be very impressed as that track is probably a tough layout for his running style

[ProSportsEdge]

Honestly I think this might happen to some degree in harness racing, but I do not know for sure, but if it is happening anywhere in flat racing other than some rinky dink track as small and backwards as Charlestown at least and probably less than that , I would be stunned. For a trainer to say something like that at let's say Pimlico , Del. Park , Parx. is simply unheard of. In my time it did not exist. If you could give me more info as to who would do this or where the race took place I could better speak too it. Please let me know.

Totally — I’d be stunned to hear that at places like Pimlico, Del. Park or Parx. Sounds like something you’d only see at a tiny backwater track. Got a trainer name or race/date? I can dig into it.

[str]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...at-spendthrift

will finish his career in the breeders cup mile and stand at spendthrift next year

I thought that this next race might be it for him. I think that he could be a stallion that has a chance to surprise some people.
The initial peak into his talent never got to the heights that it potentially could have but his record is still solid. Might be a little under the radar and that’s ok. In a what have you done lately world we are in today, he has a chance to surprise.

What he did in that last 1/8th mile of his debut race is indeed extremely rare air.

Thanks for the heads up JBEX.

[JBEX]

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/287279/chancer-mcpatrick-to-stand-at-spendthrift

will finish his career in the breeders cup mile and stand at spendthrift next year

[JBEX]

made 3 changes to recording results ..explained in that post "*"