Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

guess i should have mentioned skelly finished far back from the duel and a 33-1 won the race coming from off the pace

I assumed that. Kind of my point about crazy fractions early when you find that kind of setup. If you cherry pick those races you are going to find big pricing with closers .
same in the other direction with a pace less race or solo speed. Searching for those and finding them is awesome.
It would be a must try for me. You need patience but a few nice payouts will fix any doubts that it is not possible. It has to be I would think.

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

guess i should have mentioned skelly finished far back from the duel and a 33-1 won the race coming from off the pace

[str]

Lost track of time. Did not know it had just run.

[str]

#1 is out ..now it'll be a fistfight ..18 mtp

skelly .. even
WR .. 8-5

I would consider acting like I’m riding to make the r lead with WR and make Skelly burn early. Let him work to clear, go 21 and change , then stalk and get in his right eye at the top of the stretch.
easier said than done but at least you avoid a harsh duel.
of course everything is the break is everything so the rider needs to have more than one thought in his head.

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

[JBEX]

I know I said in my write-up above that I could see WR possibly making the lead but your scenario of #1 keeping SK honest certainly could happen..I think Prat will entertain the possibility of getting the lead with WR but adjust and stalk if he can't

#1 is out ..now it'll be a fistfight ..18 mtp

skelly .. even
WR .. 8-5

[JBEX]

He a nice one for sure but when I looked earlier, there was a solid early horse inside of him and I would be betting on a very heated duel to the 1/4 pole and World Record having a chance to run by them through the stretch.
Obviously if Skelly gallops around easily early, it will be a tall order to run him down but this race can set up for him and the inside speed to go crazy early which is basically what we are betting on.
Being partial to World Record makes the call easier for me.
But… something I want to mention to everyone. When you can surf through all these different races, you can cherry pick pace situations that create a big and in some cases almost unfair advantage for yourself.

if I was doing this daily I have to think that I would be setting up each race and gravitating towards the ones that had solo speed or a heck of a multi horse duel likely to happen.
Doing that will increase your overall advantage quite a bit. Seems like the first thing I would want to try.

Hope that helps..

I know I said in my write-up above that I could see WR possibly making the lead but your scenario of #1 keeping SK honest certainly could happen..I think Prat will entertain the possibility of getting the lead with WR but adjust and stalk if he can't

[JBEX]

Skelly maybe races 3-5 back was very poor from the gate and compromised in the rush to get lead. Not sure if that's been resolved?

I wouldn't say poor form..tough to break from the 11 post in the bc sprint ..other than that ,wins or close 2nd every time including the race in saudi arabia

[str]

Note vs Skelly, one if not the premier sprinters of the last 2 years.

He a nice one for sure but when I looked earlier, there was a solid early horse inside of him and I would be betting on a very heated duel to the 1/4 pole and World Record having a chance to run by them through the stretch.
Obviously if Skelly gallops around easily early, it will be a tall order to run him down but this race can set up for him and the inside speed to go crazy early which is basically what we are betting on.
Being partial to World Record makes the call easier for me.
But… something I want to mention to everyone. When you can surf through all these different races, you can cherry pick pace situations that create a big and in some cases almost unfair advantage for yourself.

if I was doing this daily I have to think that I would be setting up each race and gravitating towards the ones that had solo speed or a heck of a multi horse duel likely to happen.
Doing that will increase your overall advantage quite a bit. Seems like the first thing I would want to try.

Hope that helps..

[str]

constitution

Thanks EZ. Great to see you in here.was getting ready to send a wellness check to you.

This race is kind of frustrating to get a handle on. It looks to me that the two best speed horses are both Cassie’s horses. I cannot imagine he would allow those two to hook up and duel so the pace set up is a bit muddy in my opinion.
With a hot pace , that opens it up for several of these to run late, but why would there be a hot pace? Casse certainly does not want that. So it is hard for me without knowing how the race might set up to say that I like the army mule horse in here. Under certain situations there would be a chance that I could. But not the kind of race that I want to confidently say that I’d like anyone because truth be told, in set ups like this, My lean always has to go towards the speed if I think it is going to be solo and , or walk the dog scenario, meaning a slow early pace therefore helping the speed and hurting the closers chances.
Hope that makes sense.

[Madison]

any feelings on the two above horses str; if you had a chance to look

stanley house

consistent efforts middle distance on artificial but usually its for 2nd or 3rd..wouldn't shock me at what will probably be overlay odds


world record

nice that he's finally drawn a far outside post and might be important with monster "skelly"
just inside of him ..I think he's got a decent shot to outhustle him for the lead which would put skelly at a big disadvantage..if posts were reversed wouldn't like his chances as much

Skelly maybe races 3-5 back was very poor from the gate and compromised in the rush to get lead. Not sure if that's been resolved?

[Madison]

army mule..saturday

woodbine 9 @ 5:17
#6 stanley house (12-1)


_________________



one of our follow from the beginning horses like deterministic (neither by army mule)

world record (3-1)
cd 6 @ 3:18

Note vs Skelly, one if not the premier sprinters of the last 2 years.

[Easy-Rider 66]

With the inside and outside speeds, this could easily set up well for World Record. Makes sense too me.

Depending on the price, absolutely.

I'm struggling to find the pp's for Stanley House. Web... I can't find. Help if you can.

constitution

[str]

With the inside and outside speeds, this could easily set up well for World Record. Makes sense too me.

Depending on the price, absolutely.

I'm struggling to find the pp's for Stanley House. Web... I can't find. Help if you can.

[JBEX]

any feelings on the two above horses str; if you had a chance to look

stanley house

consistent efforts middle distance on artificial but usually its for 2nd or 3rd..wouldn't shock me at what will probably be overlay odds


world record

nice that he's finally drawn a far outside post and might be important with monster "skelly"
just inside of him ..I think he's got a decent shot to outhustle him for the lead which would put skelly at a big disadvantage..if posts were reversed wouldn't like his chances as much

[JBEX]

army mule..saturday

woodbine 9 @ 5:17
#6 stanley house (12-1)


_________________



one of our follow from the beginning horses like deterministic (neither by army mule)

world record (3-1)
cd 6 @ 3:18

[Optional]

My brother has two horses running tonight (USA time) in Australia.

Both are resuming from decent length spells.


10:10pm ET Rosehill Race 3 #5 Khumbila opened at 13/1 no big expectations. Several good types in race and barrier 8 of 14 not ideal. Waiting to hear the trainers report but race quality might be tough for him imho.

9:50pm ET Kembla Grange Race 1 #7 In Limbo opened at 12/1 but good chance it will end up jumping as favorite if the track condition is upgraded from the overnight Heavy 8 rating, as expected it should be.


I'm just having an interest bet on Khumbila , maybe standout in a couple of exotics. But as soon as a local book offers fixed price odds on In Limbo I plan to risk a good size bet on that. Hoping to get anything better than 7/1.

[str]

couple AM going tonight


charlestown 1 @ 7pm
#1 blanches mule (4-1)


charlestown 3 @ 8:02
#6 proud mule (4-1)

I have not seen a form but this is exactly what I’m talking about.

[JBEX]

couple AM going tonight


charlestown 1 @ 7pm
#1 blanches mule (4-1)


charlestown 3 @ 8:02
#6 proud mule (4-1)

[str]

Militia ran 4th as the longest shot on the board. Lost by 2 1/2 lengths for everything.

Sargent York finished 2nd at 12-1

I hope that readers that are looking for horses to play consider these Army Mules.

There might be other horses by a sire that throws horses that try as hard as AM's do, but I doubt many try any harder.

To take this a step further, if I was to only look at races that had an Army Mule running in it, I have to think I could cherry pick the stuffing out of that situation.

I suggest trying that if you are looking to spot play the races.

[str]

army mule .. thursday

gulfstream 7 @ 3:50
#7 militia (12-1)



thistledown 7 @ 3:50
#7 sgt york (5-1)




R7 / #7 / 3:50 .. both horses





.

Militia ran 4th as the longest shot on the board. Lost by 2 1/2 lengths for everything.

Sargent York finished 2nd at 12-1

I hope that readers that are looking for horses to play consider these Army Mules.

There might be other horses by a sire that throws horses that try as hard as AM's do, but I doubt many try any harder.

[JBEX]

Maybe that's a sign?

Kidding but that's not easy to have happen.

yeah pretty amazing especially posts being the same to the minute ..four 7's also ..we'll see

[str]

army mule .. thursday

gulfstream 7 @ 3:50
#7 militia (12-1)



thistledown 7 @ 3:50
#7 sgt york (5-1)




R7 / #7 / 3:50 .. both horses





.

Maybe that's a sign?

Kidding but that's not easy to have happen.

[JBEX]

army mule .. thursday

gulfstream 7 @ 3:50
#7 militia (12-1)



thistledown 7 @ 3:50
#7 sgt york (5-1)




R7 / #7 / 3:50 .. both horses





.

[JBEX]

I think the main takeaway from this is that with differing opinions 10 days after the fact, by fans, former professionals and even HOF jockeys, we must recognize how extremely difficult the Stewards, umpires and referees jobs are when having to make calls all the time in a second or a couple of minutes that we all have trouble settling on 10 days and a hundred replay reviews later.

Sometimes there is no clear answer but a call needs to be made. Hats off to them for getting it right as often as they do.

agree 100%

[str]

have some hall of fame jockeys on both sides of the argument and I certainly defer to you and them on how a jockey maneuvers a horse in a situation like that .. I also understand that jerry bailey had to make a call on it really quick so as you said it's certainly possible he "might" feel differently seeing it again .. I'm ok to leave it at that but worthwhile discussion

I think the main takeaway from this is that with differing opinions 10 days after the fact, by fans, former professionals and even HOF jockeys, we must recognize how extremely difficult the Stewards, umpires and referees jobs are when having to make calls all the time in a second or a couple of minutes that we all have trouble settling on 10 days and a hundred replay reviews later.

Sometimes there is no clear answer but a call needs to be made. Hats off to them for getting it right as often as they do.

[JBEX]

I guess that is what makes it so interesting. CJ an I see it the same way. I was told Daryll McHargue sees it our way as well. Don't know about anyone else.

I wonder if Bailey has softened on that comment at all. That comment was made right after it happened . I never expected the horse to be DQ'ed but there is no contact whatsoever unless Rispoli tries to get through a spot that was smaller than his horse could fit into.

I just do not see where there was ever enough room for Rispoli to get through.

Interesting for sure.

that's how I felt at first, but then I saw the other side and questioned my lean about who was in the wrong.
No doubt, Prat was too aggressive, so now I'm back to him being in the wrong.

have some hall of fame jockeys on both sides of the argument and I certainly defer to you and them on how a jockey maneuvers a horse in a situation like that .. I also understand that jerry bailey had to make a call on it really quick so as you said it's certainly possible he "might" feel differently seeing it again .. I'm ok to leave it at that but worthwhile discussion

[Snowball]

so bailey sees nothing wrong with what rispoli did with journalism and if anything felt prat was too aggressive ( maybe rough is a better description) with goal oriented

that's how I felt at first, but then I saw the other side and questioned my lean about who was in the wrong.
No doubt, Prat was too aggressive, so now I'm back to him being in the wrong.

[str]

so bailey sees nothing wrong with what rispoli did with journalism and if anything felt prat was too aggressive ( maybe rough is a better description) with goal oriented

I guess that is what makes it so interesting. CJ an I see it the same way. I was told Daryll McHargue sees it our way as well. Don't know about anyone else.

I wonder if Bailey has softened on that comment at all. That comment was made right after it happened . I never expected the horse to be DQ'ed but there is no contact whatsoever unless Rispoli tries to get through a spot that was smaller than his horse could fit into.

I just do not see where there was ever enough room for Rispoli to get through.

Interesting for sure.

[JBEX]

If you watch this race from overhead, there was no actual hole that I see . Rispoli was hopeful for a hole but there was none that was big enough to fit a horse, much less Journalism. There was a crack but no a hole IMO. So from what I see Rispoli was wishing for a hole and hoping for a hole but as he moved up towards the inside horses heels, he had to try and make a hole. THAT, IMO, is the entire problem.

Bottom line IMO, he had no business doing that other then trying to get lucky and hope a hole opened up. And while that is fine to try and do, squeezing through where you do not fit to make a hole is where the problem occurred.

Roles reversed, no way Rispoli would have let Prat or another rider through there IMO. If he did, he would have some serious explaining to do.

That is what I see.

I see what you're saying about there not being a clear hole when he started to move aggressively .. think I'm going to just remain middle of the road about this..respect your opinion but not willing to jump all the way over to the other side either

[JBEX]

so bailey sees nothing wrong with what rispoli did with journalism and if anything felt prat was too aggressive ( maybe rough is a better description) with goal oriented

BTW I came in with this comment before I saw yours and about to read it

[JBEX]

so bailey sees nothing wrong with what rispoli did with journalism and if anything felt prat was too aggressive ( maybe rough is a better description) with goal oriented

[str]

Here is the overview of the Preakness race.

Let's discuss what we see :



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWdZ...aWV3IDIwMjU%3D

If you watch this race from overhead, there was no actual hole that I see . Rispoli was hopeful for a hole but there was none that was big enough to fit a horse, much less Journalism. There was a crack but no a hole IMO. So from what I see Rispoli was wishing for a hole and hoping for a hole but as he moved up towards the inside horses heels, he had to try and make a hole. THAT, IMO, is the entire problem.

Bottom line IMO, he had no business doing that other then trying to get lucky and hope a hole opened up. And while that is fine to try and do, squeezing through where you do not fit to make a hole is where the problem occurred.

Roles reversed, no way Rispoli would have let Prat or another rider through there IMO. If he did, he would have some serious explaining to do.

That is what I see.

[str]

Here is the overview of the Preakness race.

Let's discuss what we see.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWdZj9wgZSM&pp=ygUXcHJlYWtuZXNzIG92ZXJ2aWV3IDIwMjU%3D

[JBEX]

realize this is a side point but as many times as I watch the replay I don't understand what rispoli did wrong ..to me his postion was established between the 1 and the 8 .. former bore in , journalism was in tight quarters and the chain reaction affected the 8.. around 4:15 of the NBC sports replay on you tube is the best view of it (head-on) imo

if I had to guess what I might be missing it's that journalism took away the space goal oriented needed while switching leads .. that's what caused GO to come in on him .. if I'm right about this , is rispoli at fault for making the move when he did .. was that too soon to be splitting horses str ?