Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

Well yes, a few do. But make no mistake. In this game you always hear about the wins. Not much talk about the losses.
That was what I found intriguing when I was betting in high school. It told me that the answer was probably not very many.
One thing I learned early and it was a big help for me was, when you bet and lose, see if you know afterwards why? Like, did your speed horse break terribly or did I not expect some others in the race to show as much speed as they did. If so, that could be a correctable error.
Most times, we throw our tickets away and move on to the next race. But I found there is quite a bit of information sometimes to be learned for next time.

So maybe try betting every other race on a typical day of racing. Go back and watch the replay afterwards and see what was different than how you thought it would be.

That leads to the first thing I will recommend.

Set the race up on paper beforehand and see if you are right afterwards. If you can get it fairly right, that is huge. Learning to see the race as it runs prior to it running can identify solo speed or a big speed duel with a solid closer or whatever.
Wont happen every race but it will happen. That’s a step towards being able to see things others don’t see.
Try that and even practice it on tV without bets and that will be a great start.
I think it is really key to figure out how each horse will most likely fair in how the race unfolds.
Let me know when you have tried that and we can take the next step.
Hope that helps.

One other thing you might try as you watch races set up/. Turn down the announcer. Not necessarily all the way but turn it down and do not actively listen to them. Sure, you can hear it, but don't follow it as your first sense. Use your eyes and watch the horses and where you predicted them to be. If you bet, you are drawn to that horse. But if you don't, it might take a few days, but learn to give each horse and rider a glance constantly. Make your primary sense your eyes, NOT your ears. One will always be dominate, make it your eyes and watching and scanning a race front to back, front to back, and then as things go on. It is a different way to see the races and one that I found to help me see many more things than I previously did.

It's kind of amazing how the watching of the race changes away from your ears to your eyes.

This does work. Give it a shot.

Again, no bet in the race. Just any race. See what more you can see. Just keep scanning front to back, front to back about every 5-8 seconds early on in the race.

Any feedback from anyone is great to hear.

[str]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

Well yes, a few do. But make no mistake. In this game you always hear about the wins. Not much talk about the losses.
That was what I found intriguing when I was betting in high school. It told me that the answer was probably not very many.
One thing I learned early and it was a big help for me was, when you bet and lose, see if you know afterwards why? Like, did your speed horse break terribly or did I not expect some others in the race to show as much speed as they did. If so, that could be a correctable error.
Most times, we throw our tickets away and move on to the next race. But I found there is quite a bit of information sometimes to be learned for next time.

So maybe try betting every other race on a typical day of racing. Go back and watch the replay afterwards and see what was different than how you thought it would be.

That leads to the first thing I will recommend.

Set the race up on paper beforehand and see if you are right afterwards. If you can get it fairly right, that is huge. Learning to see the race as it runs prior to it running can identify solo speed or a big speed duel with a solid closer or whatever.
Wont happen every race but it will happen. That’s a step towards being able to see things others don’t see.
Try that and even practice it on tV without bets and that will be a great start.
I think it is really key to figure out how each horse will most likely fair in how the race unfolds.
Let me know when you have tried that and we can take the next step.
Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

OK Fair enough. You are above average at identifying young horses that have potential. However your overall body of work is average imo. Just my 2 cents.

i don't consider that as an evaluation of my handicapping

I play way too many longshots ..double digit ml's that wind up going off huge odds and that won't cut it long haul .. imo you have to be effective in the 3 to 8-1 range and honestly don't feel I am .. way too many picks also ..would I approach it the same way now if I had the money and time now ..absolutely not but I think all in ,which is obviously not going to happen, I come up short ..I don't "completely" rule out having the time and resources that I couldn't do it .. in all fairness though hypotheticals don't matter .. you either do it or you don't and I haven't

[Easy-Rider 66]

yes I was being generous with my description but I don't consider myself an average handicapper either..you can be above average but not professional level considering the supposed tiny % that are .. there's room in between

OK Fair enough. You are above average at identifying young horses that have potential. However your overall body of work is average imo. Just my 2 cents.

[JBEX]

Hey Jbex as long as you have been in the game it is clear to me that you are not at that level. After 40+ years you would know. Imo. Neither am I after playing seriously for 13+ years. We are average handicappers who also don't have the bankroll the heavy hitters have at their disposal. Tough game it is.

yes I was being generous with my description but I don't consider myself an average handicapper either..you can be above average but not professional level considering the supposed tiny % that are .. there's room in between

[Easy-Rider 66]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

Hey Ray you want to try something different check out Horse tourneys and derby wars the tournament sites. You get more bang for your buck playing tourneys imo.

[Easy-Rider 66]

from what I've read over the years long term estimates are in the low single digits ..besides talent requires a tremendous amount of time and attention to details that most people (including myself) don't want to do.. to be honest even if I put in the effort have my doubts whether I'm at that level..also need significant bankroll ..there are probably exceptions to this but generally I think this is fairly accurate assessment

Hey Jbex as long as you have been in the game it is clear to me that you are not at that level. After 40+ years you would know. Imo. Neither am I after playing seriously for 13+ years. We are average handicappers who also don't have the bankroll the heavy hitters have at their disposal. Tough game it is.

[JBEX]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

found another at finger lakes

R2 #6 trojan mule (2-1) @ 1:29

[JBEX]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

from what I've read over the years long term estimates are in the low single digits ..besides talent requires a tremendous amount of time and attention to details that most people (including myself) don't want to do.. to be honest even if I put in the effort have my doubts whether I'm at that level..also need significant bankroll ..there are probably exceptions to this but generally I think this is fairly accurate assessment

[JBEX]

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

the 8 pack is tomorrow

[BT RayRay]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

[JBEX]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

thanks madison

popular at the claim box and sure you'd have given him a look back in the day ..take a peek if you get a chance str

[str]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

[Madison]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

[JBEX]

mistake





.

[JBEX]

army mule ..thursday

how about eight of them



saratoga 7 @ 4:02
danse macabre (9-2)


woodbine 4 @ 4:31
#1 sultry sophie (2-1)
#5 houlihan (4-1)


horseshoe 6 @ 4:45
#9 army fever (8-1)


hawthorne 6 @ 5:47
#4 lemon bomb (6-1)
#7 she's Inthearmynow (9-2)


churchill 7 @ 7:54
#14 hillerito (AE) (6-1)


churchill 8 @ 8:23
#10 flick (10-1)







4:02
4:31
4:45
5:47
7:54
8:23







.

[str]

Small field but a really competitive race.

She should run very well in there.

Certainly did try hard. But...11 and 11, 12 and 12, and 13 and 13 were the fractions

This one got cooked on the lead and the rail.

Watch for a better outside post and a possible more relaxed first 1/4 setup next time out.

[str]

exacta paid around double what it should have ..not supported in the pools at all




I'll put the lone one today here



thistledown 6 @ 3:20
#2 holidays army brat (5-2)





.



.

Small field but a really competitive race.

She should run very well in there.

[JBEX]

Just another day at the office for Army Mule.

Horse in the 7th wins

Horse in the 6th finishes 2nd at 6-1

The favorite in the race won and the exacta was 50.00. INCREDIBLE !

This is the closest thing to a sure thing as you will ever get.

Army Mules show up every single time.

exacta paid around double what it should have ..not supported in the pools at all




I'll put the lone one today here



thistledown 6 @ 3:20
#2 holidays army brat (5-2)





.



.

[str]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

presque isle 6
#6 calvary cat (8-1)

Just another day at the office for Army Mule.

Horse in the 7th wins

Horse in the 6th finishes 2nd at 6-1

The favorite in the race won and the exacta was 50.00. INCREDIBLE !

This is the closest thing to a sure thing as you will ever get.

Army Mules show up every single time.

[str]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

By then that roan was all out and I do think the inside horse was out of gears and just running as best as it could. The problem was letting that roan horse get a jump on him in the first place. You have to keep that right eye clear and the outside horse took that away and the inside horse had no gear to gain it back.
Kind of a confusing ride IMO. I think that jockey would love anther chance to do things better.

[JBEX]

Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?

A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.

That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.

A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.

As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.

And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.

this is the jockey's 3rd full year ,low teens win % and over 1k mounts ..not really familiar with the colony but know a few names, main one being patrick husband's .. race was fairly deep with jock talent by the numbers

trainer josie carroll at it for a long time and I believe one of the best at that track so making the right adjustments likely


saw the running line and imo it's very similiar to the one he ran off the long layoff last year..didn't run bad in the following race considering the slow start and crawling pace

put all this together and as you said a good one to keep tabs on and I will

appreciate the feedback as always str

[str]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?

A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.

That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.

A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.

As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.

And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.

[JBEX]

added another



.

[JBEX]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

2nd off layoff (considering debut) , stretching out 1.5f .. both again

but an awful long breather prior to her last race and to lay off mid year off 3 straight wins there must've been a serious issue



.

[JBEX]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

presque isle 6
#6 calvary cat (8-1)

[JBEX]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

might have had just as much to do with the roan drifting out as the 7

[JBEX]

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

[JBEX]

the announcer made it sound like it was a disaster for skelly out of the gate and I think that's a huge exaggeration .. I'd say <= 1 length of WR's start ..fractions too hot (20.4/43.3 fifths) and WR hung in there good for 2nd

I think the alfred vanderbilt (grade 2) on 7/19 at the spa is the next logical spot for him..went from churchill to saratoga last year and won the amsterdam stakes for 3yo only (grade 2)

[JBEX]

Another side note to a side note. Lol.

Reason I said that , back in the day, when I was learning prior to being a trainer, I would watch the best trainers as to how they approached situations with their horses as 2nd time out in a life or first off time. . Now remember, these were STAR horses, not just maidens that won their first start . So I remember watching Ruffian. Yeah, the best female I ever saw . And while she did run in a stake after breaking her maiden, and of course, she won like she did every race she ever finished, when she ran back in her first race as a 3 year old, after winning all 5 races as a 2 year old, 4 of which were stakes, and her first race in about 6 months+/- she ran in an allowance race.
It was a prep to go on and win as a 3 yr. old. Won easily and the rest is history. You just don't see that anymore. I'm not sure why but you don't. That was all you saw with the good ones way back when. Times change I guess.

my guess would be the conditions for that type of alw race would attract a stakes quality field as it would have to be an appealing spot to start off a yearly campaign for that caliber of horse ..pretty sure,but not certain, they have done that in the not so distant past but possibly goes back a decade or two

[str]

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

Another side note to a side note. Lol.

Reason I said that , back in the day, when I was learning prior to being a trainer, I would watch the best trainers as to how they approached situations with their horses as 2nd time out in a life or first off time. . Now remember, these were STAR horses, not just maidens that won their first start . So I remember watching Ruffian. Yeah, the best female I ever saw . And while she did run in a stake after breaking her maiden, and of course, she won like she did every race she ever finished, when she ran back in her first race as a 3 year old, after winning all 5 races as a 2 year old, 4 of which were stakes, and her first race in about 6 months+/- she ran in an allowance race.
It was a prep to go on and win as a 3 yr. old. Won easily and the rest is history. You just don't see that anymore. I'm not sure why but you don't. That was all you saw with the good ones way back when. Times change I guess.

[str]

army mule ..sunday

woodbine 8 @ 4:45
#4 a little frisky (5-2)


woodbine 9
#11 midnight mascot (10-1)

A little Frisky.

Probably runs fine, maybe even wins, but with all the AM's out there to play, I would watch this one, and maybe see if next out is a play. For the apparent reward of 5-2 or 3-1 I think there are many more live plays than this one, this time out.
She will try as they all do but have to think I would watch her closely this time for any indication of next out.

On a side note, when you break your maiden at Woodbine, they all seem to run back in Stakes. WTF. How about an A other than and work on how to win instead of trying to grab the glory in race #2? I guess that's not as much fun though. So I get it.

[JBEX]

army mule ..sunday

woodbine 8 @ 4:45
#4 a little frisky (5-2)


woodbine 9
#11 midnight mascot (10-1)

[JBEX]

any feelings on the two above horses str; if you had a chance to look

stanley house

consistent efforts middle distance on artificial but usually its for 2nd or 3rd..wouldn't shock me at what will probably be overlay odds


world record

nice that he's finally drawn a far outside post and might be important with monster "skelly"
just inside of him ..I think he's got a decent shot to outhustle him for the lead which would put skelly at a big disadvantage..if posts were reversed wouldn't like his chances as much

of course not today..that comment included class level which I should have mentioned ..not talking 3 or 4 efforts but about last 7 prior to today

[JBEX]

Sure. Make the other riders abort any notion of relax from the beginning and hopefully it shows up at the 1/8th pole when they fade a bit and mine is coming on.
CJ was a star doing that when he had the bug.
an incredible edge sometimes.

All the little things JBEX. So lucky to learn from Dickie.
And Chris.

yes little things like that turn 2nds or worse into wins .. you had excellent teachers in those you mentioned