Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

also what would you guess journalism's trouble cost him in time ? mine would be about 1.5 seconds

[JBEX]

hey str

if you happened to see my thread aqu 6 had two 2nd time starters ,one by frankel and the other by dubawi..the frankel a 4yo gelding and dubawi 3yo colt.. my thought is if you spend $400k + to breed to him you don't want the horse to be a gelding in his 1st start .. that much money you want to have some chance at having him be a stallion..I understand that it really has to happen for some to be effective runners

then I was thinking this..if you can afford to shell out that kind of money on a stallion it's probably (nah definitely) something you are comfortably able to do .. doesn't work out not going to effect your overall finances and the consolation prize is you might have a horse who has a better than avg chance to earn a significant amount of money ..so I feel in general it's not as bad a thing as I have made it out to be ..do you think a horse from either of these 2 sires or one of our elite 4 has just as good a chance to be a top runner if he starts off or within his first few starts is gelded ?

[Madison]

Thanks JBEX.

I thought that outside post with all that run to the 1st turn and speed inside would allow this horse plenty of time to find a stride, be left alone, and settle in. That is exactly what happened. Had he been in the 1-6 post or thereabouts, it could have been a completely different story.
Also think that the trainer, Walsh is one of the very best around and maybe flies under the radar in these types of races. From a Beyer number standpoint, he was looking to improve off two solid 93 numbers and expected an improvement while others had improved off their last numbers in the race before . It just seemed to make sense. And you know I always look twice at the BOX post position.

One thing I noticed was the 1 minute to post time money dump when the 9 horse went from 19-1 to 14-1 in one click. That is so wrong on every level for bettors. Totally bull crap for management to allow those syndicates to get the rebates they get while ordinally fans don't have the same opportunity. Shame on racing for facilitating that. It's like management does everything they can to alienate the fanbase, and somehow they continue to get away with it.

That first qtr/break was much indicative of how one would gain advantages in greyhound racing. Let the 8 slice the entire field to the rail and allow the 9 a gigantic alley to the first turn. Nothing against the 9. Just saying.

[Madison]

good run by Gosger STR. Just got beat by a pretty good horse

You are tough my friend. "pretty good horse". That was some performance yesterday!!

[str]

thanks str

agree with the prestige of winning the travers over the pacific classic .. in addition this year the belmont will be the same trip as the former so
that holds some appeal ..with the bc being at dmr though it makes the call a little trickier and will be interesting to see the path they choose .. i still think two @ dmr but certainly some merits to running in the travers

guess you also have to factor in the cross country round trip to come back to saratoga to run in the travers ..that's kind of unappealing I would think ..plenty of time to decide but i would guess the connections will have this on their mind's even before the belmont

Maybe not a decision edged in stone but certainly a strong lean. At that level, the road gets mapped out early and revisited almost daily.

[JBEX]

I guess I would need to think about that but, it does make sense being as that is his home base. And the San Diego Cap and the Pacific are real nice races but for a resume as a stallion, not much tops the Travers.
I guess it just depends on the overall thought process of the team. And, he could always take that run at the Travers as a 4 year old. So many ways to go and it is cool to watch the decision making along the way.
Good stuff JBEX.

thanks str

agree with the prestige of winning the travers over the pacific classic .. in addition this year the belmont will be the same trip as the former so
that holds some appeal ..with the bc being at dmr though it makes the call a little trickier and will be interesting to see the path they choose .. i still think two @ dmr but certainly some merits to running in the travers

guess you also have to factor in the cross country round trip to come back to saratoga to run in the travers ..that's kind of unappealing I would think ..plenty of time to decide but i would guess the connections will have this on their mind's even before the belmont

[str]

if things go well for journalism this is what I think his road to the breeders cup will be


much as I would've liked to see him go 1 1/2 miles @ belmont the 10f version at saratoga is perfect off yesterday's race .. run him in san diego handicap (@ 1 1/16 miles) last week of july and then pacific classic (@ 1 1/4 miles) last week of august ..about 9 weeks after that is the bc classic @ del mar


have to think they'll go the dmr path (vs the travers) because of the breeders cup and trainer is based out there

I guess I would need to think about that but, it does make sense being as that is his home base. And the San Diego Cap and the Pacific are real nice races but for a resume as a stallion, not much tops the Travers.
I guess it just depends on the overall thought process of the team. And, he could always take that run at the Travers as a 4 year old. So many ways to go and it is cool to watch the decision making along the way.
Good stuff JBEX.

[str]

Sir STR, just curious on what is your take on Prat's ride on the 1- Goal Oriented? Didn't get a chance to watch it live today, just saw the replay. According to commentator Bailey, "Prat crowded Rispoli". What did you see? Make no mistake, I never like Prat so that's my personal bias. Thanks.

Hi Mr. GandT ! Great to see you in here.

The main takeaway here is that everyday , normal, average riders cannot do what the top 1% can. That is no knock, it is just the very best of the best is what I mean. I fully expected what occurred to happen when the winning rider decided to stay inside. With those top riders, you just do not get the holes the way you do with everyday riding. He did however take it one step to far. The analysis from Jerry Bailey was spot on. It was just the last move that went too far. Up until then, it was fair game.
You do not see that very often on a normal day at a normal track. There is almost always room to get through on the fence in day to day races. But not the best of the best, and not in Grade 1's for sure.

Did you hear the name drop by Mike Tirico when he mentioned the head Stewart Adam Campola when talking about the incident. Adam is an old friend of mine. He galloped horses for me way back in the day and has made a career out of the track and climbed to the top as the head Stewart. Really nice, classy guy. Good for him!

[JBEX]

if things go well for journalism this is what I think his road to the breeders cup will be


much as I would've liked to see him go 1 1/2 miles @ belmont the 10f version at saratoga is perfect off yesterday's race .. run him in san diego handicap (@ 1 1/16 miles) last week of july and then pacific classic (@ 1 1/4 miles) last week of august ..about 9 weeks after that is the bc classic @ del mar


have to think they'll go the dmr path (vs the travers) because of the breeders cup and trainer is based out there

[str]

good run by Gosger STR. Just got beat by a pretty good horse

Still can't combine quotes but my last answer was for you as well EZ. Thank you.

[str]

while journalism factoring trouble was obviously the best horse,nice call with gosger str ..had he won the exacta with the win bet would've been a really nice hit

Thanks JBEX.

I thought that outside post with all that run to the 1st turn and speed inside would allow this horse plenty of time to find a stride, be left alone, and settle in. That is exactly what happened. Had he been in the 1-6 post or thereabouts, it could have been a completely different story.
Also think that the trainer, Walsh is one of the very best around and maybe flies under the radar in these types of races. From a Beyer number standpoint, he was looking to improve off two solid 93 numbers and expected an improvement while others had improved off their last numbers in the race before . It just seemed to make sense. And you know I always look twice at the BOX post position.

One thing I noticed was the 1 minute to post time money dump when the 9 horse went from 19-1 to 14-1 in one click. That is so wrong on every level for bettors. Totally bull crap for management to allow those syndicates to get the rebates they get while ordinally fans don't have the same opportunity. Shame on racing for facilitating that. It's like management does everything they can to alienate the fanbase, and somehow they continue to get away with it.

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, just curious on what is your take on Prat's ride on the 1- Goal Oriented? Didn't get a chance to watch it live today, just saw the replay. According to commentator Bailey, "Prat crowded Rispoli". What did you see? Make no mistake, I never like Prat so that's my personal bias. Thanks.

[Easy-Rider 66]

good run by Gosger STR. Just got beat by a pretty good horse

[JBEX]

I've gone through the Preakness field here is my take.

1. Goal Oriented: Most likely tries to get the lead from the one post. If not, just off it down inside but because he was "climbing" so much that it warranted a mention in the form from the chart caller, and that climbing was most likely due to the spray back or kickback that flies from the horses in front, all signs point to him trying to avoid that situation. For me, he is speed.

2. Journalism: Has done nothing wrong in all 6 starts. I can't expect him to today. He is the heavy favorite and deservedly so. Evan a bounce as people call it, still puts him 2nd or 3rd in all probability. On paper, no doubt the best horse today.

3. American Promise: Speed and or early position. As long as the other speeds run to their capabilities, I just don't see it here. He should be prominent early but I don't see him able to hold off the closers with a duel up front IMO.

4. Heart Of Honor: Looks like he runs mid pack early. Next to no form to go on. He is a nice horse I am pretty sure. But, today, and with little if anything to go on, If he wins , I lose.

5. Pay Billy: Local horse gets to swing for the fences. He will try but if he gets there, I won't.

6. River Thames: This horse looks like he could improve as he runs more. He could run well today and at high odds, I think I could use him in exotics.

7. Sandman: Most likely better than his last race. The question is... how much better? Lower odds has me looking elsewhere.

8. Clever Again: Speed. And three across the track it very well could be. If any of those can get loose and slow it down, that horse will have a huge chance. That said, for me, I will toss and hope for that 3 horse duel and fast splits early.

9. Gosger: Probably is allowed, if he cooperates, and I would think there is a good chance for that, to settle off the top three across the track and lay 4th, save a bit of ground around the first turn, advance when needed to keep his position and finish well. At nice odds, he will be on my tickets.

At current odds my plays would be:
Gosger to win at 20-1

An exacta box of 2,6,9. Then see the payoffs and most likely use the 9 with the 2 a bit more assuming the 6-9 box is big.

A triple box of 2,6,9

Hope that makes sense.

Let's get lucky!

GL everyone.

Who do you all like?

while journalism factoring trouble was obviously the best horse,nice call with gosger str ..had he won the exacta with the win bet would've been a really nice hit

[JBEX]

army mule saturday



monmouth 7 @ 3:56
#1 bel pensiero (3-1)

monmouth 8 @ 4:28
#1 ceepeegee (9-2)

churchill 1 @ 6pm
#7 brooklyn drew (4-1)




.

just moving forward

[JBEX]

might negate some of the lack of experience if she's able to get the lead ..doesn't look impossible to do in that field

[str]

I agree. The sprint would be more difficult.
The horse is asked to run at top speed from the gate on unfamiliar terrain.
With all the relax in route turf races, it has to be easier to adapt to any footing worries the horse might have.

if he has a turf work like a 1/2 mile, that would be a big relief for the horse.

[JBEX]

Without even seeing the form yet, I would be way more surprised if all three ran off the board than if all three won.

If anyone is just looking for action, play these three and you can rest assured that you will get a hard trying run for your money on all of them.
I don't think there is another sire I would say that about more confidently than I do Army Mules.

what do you think is a tougher thing to do first time str .. a dirt sprinter trying a turf sprint or a dirt router trying a turf route..both are in good current form running on dirt .. I think the sprint is tougher because there's less to no room for error

this would apply to brooklyn drew (AM CD1) as it's a first try turf sprint .. going to discount the slow start debutas experience (actually be her 2nd with that) and possibly came back too quick last start for the poor performance (good current form) .. the latter is certainly a guess as to the reason

[str]

I've gone through the Preakness field here is my take.

1. Goal Oriented: Most likely tries to get the lead from the one post. If not, just off it down inside but because he was "climbing" so much that it warranted a mention in the form from the chart caller, and that climbing was most likely due to the spray back or kickback that flies from the horses in front, all signs point to him trying to avoid that situation. For me, he is speed.

2. Journalism: Has done nothing wrong in all 6 starts. I can't expect him to today. He is the heavy favorite and deservedly so. Evan a bounce as people call it, still puts him 2nd or 3rd in all probability. On paper, no doubt the best horse today.

3. American Promise: Speed and or early position. As long as the other speeds run to their capabilities, I just don't see it here. He should be prominent early but I don't see him able to hold off the closers with a duel up front IMO.

4. Heart Of Honor: Looks like he runs mid pack early. Next to no form to go on. He is a nice horse I am pretty sure. But, today, and with little if anything to go on, If he wins , I lose.

5. Pay Billy: Local horse gets to swing for the fences. He will try but if he gets there, I won't.

6. River Thames: This horse looks like he could improve as he runs more. He could run well today and at high odds, I think I could use him in exotics.

7. Sandman: Most likely better than his last race. The question is... how much better? Lower odds has me looking elsewhere.

8. Clever Again: Speed. And three across the track it very well could be. If any of those can get loose and slow it down, that horse will have a huge chance. That said, for me, I will toss and hope for that 3 horse duel and fast splits early.

9. Gosger: Probably is allowed, if he cooperates, and I would think there is a good chance for that, to settle off the top three across the track and lay 4th, save a bit of ground around the first turn, advance when needed to keep his position and finish well. At nice odds, he will be on my tickets.

At current odds my plays would be:
Gosger to win at 20-1

An exacta box of 2,6,9. Then see the payoffs and most likely use the 9 with the 2 a bit more assuming the 6-9 box is big.

A triple box of 2,6,9

Hope that makes sense.

Let's get lucky!

GL everyone.

Who do you all like?

[JBEX]

One other thing I want to mention is for everyone that considers the " bounce" which I feel is over represented and misunderstood often, a prime horse to possibly " bounce" today is Journalism.

Wanting to lay 4th , 5th or 6th easily, which is his perfect setup, he was forced lay 10th early. He ran a great race. So is today for him a bounce candidate? Yes. While I hope not for the connections who got hosed in the Derby, if he runs flat, that would be a bounce. I'm not talking about Beyer numbers or figures, I'm talking about physical effort and excursion which the horse reached deeply for to run the race he did.
Hope that makes sense.

guess no matter how good the trainer is you just don't know till they run .. have to think with his pedigree they are considering what his resume will look like at the end of his career for stud fee
purposes and as you know that money dwarfs purses..I have an above avg amount of confidence that he's ok to go and if he works out a good trip he's going to win..will there be any value..no and that's why I like the idea of going for the exacta with him on top

[str]

One other thing I want to mention is for everyone that considers the " bounce" which I feel is over represented and misunderstood often, a prime horse to possibly " bounce" today is Journalism.

Wanting to lay 4th , 5th or 6th easily, which is his perfect setup, he was forced lay 10th early. He ran a great race. So is today for him a bounce candidate? Yes. While I hope not for the connections who got hosed in the Derby, if he runs flat, that would be a bounce. I'm not talking about Beyer numbers or figures, I'm talking about physical effort and excursion which the horse reached deeply for to run the race he did.
Hope that makes sense.

[str]

Having gone through the Preakness pp's once, it is obvious that the best horse on paper is Journalism. If he had had the opportunity to lay closer early instead of being squeezed back much further than they wanted him to be it very well could have been a different story. But... "the chosen one" had to get HIS spot and half the fields expense so shuffled back it is.
I will look at this race for a three horse exacta box, and maybe a small triple. I am not going to Laurel today so I will post it earlier than 1 darn minute to post time. Sorry again about that.

[str]

army mule saturday



monmouth 7 @ 3:56
#1 bel pensiero (3-1)

monmouth 8 @ 4:28
#1 ceepeegee (9-2)

churchill 1 @ 6pm
#7 brooklyn drew (4-1)




.

Without even seeing the form yet, I would be way more surprised if all three ran off the board than if all three won.

If anyone is just looking for action, play these three and you can rest assured that you will get a hard trying run for your money on all of them.
I don't think there is another sire I would say that about more confidently than I do Army Mules.

[JBEX]

army mule saturday



monmouth 7 @ 3:56
#1 bel pensiero (3-1)

monmouth 8 @ 4:28
#1 ceepeegee (9-2)

churchill 1 @ 6pm
#7 brooklyn drew (4-1)




.

[JBEX]

army mule friday





woodbine 1 @ 1:05
#5 houlihan (5-2)

woodbine 2
#4 sultry sophie (6-1)


churchill 9 @ 4:55
#10 colonel caliente (8-1)

prarie meadows 7 @ 9:42
#2 kissed a cadet (5-1)






.

[JBEX]

army mule

two going in horseshoe R2 @ 2:41

#1 army girl (10-1)
#6 wonder if you (8-1)

[str]

an army mule ,or any say $15k + stallion, that's a homebred or isn't a cheapie auction purchase
generally has an edge in that kind of race and with AM you have one of the better first out stallions also .. lot's of the public knows that and not enough respect given to them by the ml maker ..of course now that we said this he'll probably go off 17-1 lol

Notes for this race yesterday. Watch the replay to see what I mean if you care to.

#3 Army Fever went off 7-1. I stick with my assessment that the 10-1 ML was dumb. Why? Because this horse was most likely the 2nd best horse in the race. It is not rocket science at this point that AM's all run there guts out. 5-1 should have been the line. Third choice most likely should have been the correct line.
This is a big edge for players looking for value. Anyone reading here knows all about Army Mule's. Some lines makers obviously do not.

This horse broke sluggish and was not ready to engage at first. He was either bothered by the spray back of dirt, which is something you just can't reenact in the mornings to the proper extent and, or, he just did not understand what was going on. Either way, the rider starts chasing him and pushing him early and the horse did not understand that OR, he didn't like it. It was a mistake. In almost all of these types of situations the thing to do is to get the horse to find a comfort zone and be in tune with the rider. I'm not knocking this jockey, well I guess I am to an extent, but, a rider with more understanding of this would have done better. Why? Because when chasing the horse and throwing the reigns at him did nothing, as soon as the rider stopped and took a cross with the reigns and allowed the bit to go back in the horses mouth, the horse understood that, grabbed it, and was mentally comfortable and engaged immediately thereafter.
This horse ate a ton of dirt, kickback, whatever you want to call it, stayed inside, responded immediately when asked , moved up inside horses to be a clear 2nd, all of which is extremely impressive, and was winded late by the experience and that allowed a closer to catch him late. An easy 3rd. He will be better next out especially if the rider is as well.

He wins against this group next out with any improvement from this experience.

On a side note, the winner has a lot of talent but... he never switched leads through the stretch or the gallop out. Unless he has exceptional talent, that gets him beat next out unless he has that exceptional talent and can get away with winning at about 60-70% of his overall ability.

Hope all this helps better see the races for everyone.

[JBEX]

A silly morning line which points to the fact that other than a very few places, morning lines are just not given serious consideration.

You have to pay for someone to put in the time and have the expertise. If you don't, they move elsewhere.
Some tracks pass this task off as just another thing that needs to occur for each card. I do not blame the odds maker . I blame management for not caring to provide a first class experience for the fans.
Anyone that plays at this track needs to know to not pay any attention to the morning line as it is obviously an underpaid position and an afterthought. I cannot figure out any other reason for such a blatant mistake. Just my opinion.

an army mule ,or any say $15k + stallion, that's a homebred or isn't a cheapie auction purchase
generally has an edge in that kind of race and with AM you have one of the better first out stallions also .. lot's of the public knows that and not enough respect given to them by the ml maker ..of course now that we said this he'll probably go off 17-1 lol

[str]

by army mule

horseshoe 1 @ 2:10
#3 army fever (10-1)


first time starter homebred .. certainly a decent shot vs statebreds

A silly morning line which points to the fact that other than a very few places, morning lines are just not given serious consideration.

You have to pay for someone to put in the time and have the expertise. If you don't, they move elsewhere.
Some tracks pass this task off as just another thing that needs to occur for each card. I do not blame the odds maker . I blame management for not caring to provide a first class experience for the fans.
Anyone that plays at this track needs to know to not pay any attention to the morning line as it is obviously an underpaid position and an afterthought. I cannot figure out any other reason for such a blatant mistake. Just my opinion.

[JBEX]

by army mule

horseshoe 1 @ 2:10
#3 army fever (10-1)


first time starter homebred .. certainly a decent shot vs statebreds

[Madison]

Amazing the lyrics from the 70's and 80's. Not much to my liking nowadays.

Isn't the Byrds "Long Cool Woman in a Black Dress"? Somewhere on my recent Youtube playlist. Also David Gilmour and various versions of "When My Guitar Gently Weeps". There's one with Prince who I never appreciated as much as I should. I could go on and on. But let's not turn this into an old guys music thread. LOL

All my best!

[str]

Always appreciated.

It's just amazing that when all I did was gamble I wouldn't think twice about boxing the 1/13 with the field. 2 or 3 years ago I finally shredded a shoe box full of "signers" from the 80's. Yes, I'm sick, I held them that long and I'm still holding a few. The real dilemma is that I now have 1000x the money I had back then and I have -1000x the B@LLS. I would win/lose thousands daily back then, now I can't tolerate losing $100. I had no conscience back then and now I'm pathetic as a gambler.

I once bet 3300/3000 on a CF game Colorado vs Colorado St. Back then (80's) you had to stay up til midnight watching and hoping you'd see the result. Apparently one or the other kicked a 40 yd fg in a snowstorm and I won. It was probably about 50% of my net worth.

Sorry to bother/clutter the thread, just getting old. Now I do a semblance of the same in the stock market.

BOL to all!!

From the music side of things:

How about the Byrds.

"I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now".

All the best sir.

[Madison]

OH, and yes I'm a BIG music guy. Jackson Brown, Seger, etc, etc.

[Madison]

Hi Madison. I don't know if you are a music guy or not but I am.

From one old guy to another, listen to this song if you are so inclined.
It kind of says it all.

Have a great day sir!

The Older I Get
Song by Alan Jackson ‧ 2021
OverviewLyricsListenArtists Search Results

Main Results

Lyrics
The older I get
The more I think
You only get a minute, better live while you're in it
'Cause it's gone in a blink

And the older I get
The truer it is
It's the people you love, not the money and stuff
That makes you rich

And if they found a fountain of youth
I wouldn't drink a drop and that's the truth
Funny how it feels I'm just getting to my best years yet

The older I get
The fewer friends I have
But you don't need a lot when the ones that you got
Have always got your back

And the older I get
The better I am
At knowing when to give
And when to just not give a damn

And if they found a fountain of youth
I wouldn't drink a drop and that's the truth
Funny how it feels I'm just getting to my best years yet

The older I get
And I don't mind all the lines
From all the times I've laughed and cried
Souvenirs and little signs of the life I've lived

The older I get
The longer I pray
I don't know why, I guess that I've
Got more to say

And the older I get
The more thankful I feel
For the life I've had and all the life I'm living still

Always appreciated.

It's just amazing that when all I did was gamble I wouldn't think twice about boxing the 1/13 with the field. 2 or 3 years ago I finally shredded a shoe box full of "signers" from the 80's. Yes, I'm sick, I held them that long and I'm still holding a few. The real dilemma is that I now have 1000x the money I had back then and I have -1000x the B@LLS. I would win/lose thousands daily back then, now I can't tolerate losing $100. I had no conscience back then and now I'm pathetic as a gambler.

I once bet 3300/3000 on a CF game Colorado vs Colorado St. Back then (80's) you had to stay up til midnight watching and hoping you'd see the result. Apparently one or the other kicked a 40 yd fg in a snowstorm and I won. It was probably about 50% of my net worth.

Sorry to bother/clutter the thread, just getting old. Now I do a semblance of the same in the stock market.

BOL to all!!

[JBEX]

army mule

thistledown R7 @ 3:50
#7 sgt york (9-2)