Horse Racing questions and answers

[Easy-Rider 66]

if you excuse the break last out the pp line isn't bad ..figure progression first 3,a 5f turf sprint @ gulfstream is a different animal than what she'd done at woodbine ..didn't run badly in the race she was claimed out of,actually very good when you look at the bad trip she had..it's a very classy either surface pedigree geared more for distance ..sire is gun runner's sire and the dam's sire is curlin's sire..realize most won't factor that in to capping but interesting to know..trainer/jock combo a large part of why she went off that high imo

THX for your take JBEX. what jumped out to me was the work she did at MSW at WO. Now running in a 50K MDN claiming. I thew out last race as she regressed on the dirt. she ran above par for this ace in several other attempts. Good point about the sire info. thx again.

[JBEX]

Hey STR when you get a chance take a look at GP R2: #6 Wellness. You can access PP's by More than ready. 15/1 ML sent off at 24/1. The Horse placed nailed at the wire by the fav. Do you see potential there or should he have been sent off at that price in your opinion? THX in advance.

if you excuse the break last out the pp line isn't bad ..figure progression first 3,a 5f turf sprint @ gulfstream is a different animal than what she'd done at woodbine ..didn't run badly in the race she was claimed out of,actually very good when you look at the bad trip she had..it's a very classy either surface pedigree geared more for distance ..sire is gun runner's sire and the dam's sire is curlin's sire..realize most won't factor that in to capping but interesting to know..trainer/jock combo a large part of why she went off that high imo

[str]

Great points STR, one other thing I noticed was the jockey went to the whip on the far turn IDK just an all and all funky race for both,
Yes A horse to watch JBEX!

By the time the jock hit that horse, the horse was toast. He felt it ,but the energy was empty.

It was a waste of time. It had no effect except visually IMO.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR when you get a chance take a look at GP R2: #6 Wellness. You can access PP's by More than ready. 15/1 ML sent off at 24/1. The Horse placed nailed at the wire by the fav. Do you see potential there or should he have been sent off at that price in your opinion? THX in advance.

[batt33]

[QUOTE=JBEX;n29862661]in response to batt and str ..still can't multiple quote..

but do you think , to a degree anyway, that being steadied after the start (for a front running horse) along with running on a new surface might have had him a bit disoriented ..the aggresive move to the battle for the lead on the backstretch may have been the horse not wanting to be restrained due to unfamiliarity with this style of running ?


I get the feeling if this was the case you guys would've mentioned it to begin with[/QUOT

JBEX try this for mutiple quotes.... hit the first quote... find the second quote and hit the post reply button(up at the top ) it should show (2) (once you hit the button) then type in a response.... hope that helps!

[batt33]

Yeah. Your on the right track, no pun intended.

When he was steadied at the start, the horse started to run off. That is a situation where either the horse gets the upper hand or the jockey changes the horses mind. It is only for a second or two and then one or the other has the upper hand. In this case, the horse won the battle. By that I mean that the horse was indeed running off , unsettled, and burning energy like mad. So when you saw the rider go very wide into ,the turn, I am sure that what he was doing was getting away from other horses so his horse might chill out and start paying attention to the jockey instead of getting mentally all fired up and burning out. So I do understand what the rider was attempting. Unfortunately, the horse was unable to overcome it's fired up state, which could very well have been a combination of things, like new surface, ping ponged out of the gate, etc. When the Army Mule comes back into the picture early down the backside, look at his mouth and you can see all the foam from the horse grinding the bit, exerting mental energy ( my opinion, I do not know the horse well enough to know if this is normal for him or not), and is continuing to exert more energy than he should be. So when the inside horse, the 9, moves up inside to try and gain position before the hole closes into the far turn, and creates what would have been a 4 wide run around the turn for the , the AM rider says screw it, and allows his still rank horse to move up to move up into contention. And while I understand that, my frustration was from just out of the gate and what occurred that entire first 5/8ths of a mile. At no time did this horse settle.
Had he settled, I think he wins. Watching my horse burn energy at the wrong time was without a doubt the most frustrating thing to watch during a race of mine. You just can't allow that. And that's not to say the rider could have in that race but undoing the mental side of getting the horse to settle, listen and respond is so darn difficult that when you have it, you don't ever want to lose it. Without watching earlier replays, I don't know if this horse has ever settled. When I see big blinker cups, , frothing at the mouth, and a rider that can't settle his mount to chill out, I know it can be a battle. Some horses never can. That can make a potentially 20k horse worth about a third of that. I would hope he wears a shadow roll next out to try and get his head down a little so he can level off.

While I wanted to blame the rider, maybe that was unfair. Maybe this horse is just to fired up and jittery and makes the rider look bad. I have not watched previous replays of this horse or I could quickly know which one it was.

Whatever the case, it is almost impossible to get a horse away from running with their head too high, nervous, etc. without the horses cooperation. Hopefully we see that next time he runs. And the main thing will be to get the horse to relax immediately upon the break. Once he's mentally gone, he does not seem to think about settling down.

thanks str

so this race was probably over for him just after the break.. horse wouldn't settle and lots of energy was expended for a long period of time which took it's toll in the stretch ..still hung on pretty well though in spite of these things..I also felt without all this adversity good chance he might have won ..will keep an eye out for his next start

Great points STR, one other thing I noticed was the jockey went to the whip on the far turn IDK just an all and all funky race for both,
Yes A horse to watch JBEX!

[str]

thanks str

so this race was probably over for him just after the break.. horse wouldn't settle and lots of energy was expended for a long period of time which took it's toll in the stretch ..still hung on pretty well though in spite of these things..I also felt without all this adversity good chance he might have won ..will keep an eye out for his next start

All that could have cost him 8-10 lengths.

if he settles, rates and fires, I think he wins JBEX .
All that went on in that race cost him a lot.
But because he caused a lot of that himself, you can’t think he won’t cause himself problems next time as well. That’s the dilemma.

Do you see how high his head was even standing in the gate? You can’t break well with your head up in the air. Look for a big shadow roll next time. He is begging for it. That has to help if they do it.

Lets call him “the shadow roll AM “.

[JBEX]

Yeah. Your on the right track, no pun intended.

When he was steadied at the start, the horse started to run off. That is a situation where either the horse gets the upper hand or the jockey changes the horses mind. It is only for a second or two and then one or the other has the upper hand. In this case, the horse won the battle. By that I mean that the horse was indeed running off , unsettled, and burning energy like mad. So when you saw the rider go very wide into ,the turn, I am sure that what he was doing was getting away from other horses so his horse might chill out and start paying attention to the jockey instead of getting mentally all fired up and burning out. So I do understand what the rider was attempting. Unfortunately, the horse was unable to overcome it's fired up state, which could very well have been a combination of things, like new surface, ping ponged out of the gate, etc. When the Army Mule comes back into the picture early down the backside, look at his mouth and you can see all the foam from the horse grinding the bit, exerting mental energy ( my opinion, I do not know the horse well enough to know if this is normal for him or not), and is continuing to exert more energy than he should be. So when the inside horse, the 9, moves up inside to try and gain position before the hole closes into the far turn, and creates what would have been a 4 wide run around the turn for the , the AM rider says screw it, and allows his still rank horse to move up to move up into contention. And while I understand that, my frustration was from just out of the gate and what occurred that entire first 5/8ths of a mile. At no time did this horse settle.
Had he settled, I think he wins. Watching my horse burn energy at the wrong time was without a doubt the most frustrating thing to watch during a race of mine. You just can't allow that. And that's not to say the rider could have in that race but undoing the mental side of getting the horse to settle, listen and respond is so darn difficult that when you have it, you don't ever want to lose it. Without watching earlier replays, I don't know if this horse has ever settled. When I see big blinker cups, , frothing at the mouth, and a rider that can't settle his mount to chill out, I know it can be a battle. Some horses never can. That can make a potentially 20k horse worth about a third of that. I would hope he wears a shadow roll next out to try and get his head down a little so he can level off.

While I wanted to blame the rider, maybe that was unfair. Maybe this horse is just to fired up and jittery and makes the rider look bad. I have not watched previous replays of this horse or I could quickly know which one it was.

Whatever the case, it is almost impossible to get a horse away from running with their head too high, nervous, etc. without the horses cooperation. Hopefully we see that next time he runs. And the main thing will be to get the horse to relax immediately upon the break. Once he's mentally gone, he does not seem to think about settling down.

thanks str

so this race was probably over for him just after the break.. horse wouldn't settle and lots of energy was expended for a long period of time which took it's toll in the stretch ..still hung on pretty well though in spite of these things..I also felt without all this adversity good chance he might have won ..will keep an eye out for his next start

[str]

in response to batt and str ..still can't multiple quote..

but do you think , to a degree anyway, that being steadied after the start (for a front running horse) along with running on a new surface might have had him a bit disoriented ..the aggresive move to the battle for the lead on the backstretch may have been the horse not wanting to be restrained due to unfamiliarity with this style of running ?


I get the feeling if this was the case you guys would've mentioned it to begin with

Yeah. Your on the right track, no pun intended.

When he was steadied at the start, the horse started to run off. That is a situation where either the horse gets the upper hand or the jockey changes the horses mind. It is only for a second or two and then one or the other has the upper hand. In this case, the horse won the battle. By that I mean that the horse was indeed running off , unsettled, and burning energy like mad. So when you saw the rider go very wide into ,the turn, I am sure that what he was doing was getting away from other horses so his horse might chill out and start paying attention to the jockey instead of getting mentally all fired up and burning out. So I do understand what the rider was attempting. Unfortunately, the horse was unable to overcome it's fired up state, which could very well have been a combination of things, like new surface, ping ponged out of the gate, etc. When the Army Mule comes back into the picture early down the backside, look at his mouth and you can see all the foam from the horse grinding the bit, exerting mental energy ( my opinion, I do not know the horse well enough to know if this is normal for him or not), and is continuing to exert more energy than he should be. So when the inside horse, the 9, moves up inside to try and gain position before the hole closes into the far turn, and creates what would have been a 4 wide run around the turn for the , the AM rider says screw it, and allows his still rank horse to move up to move up into contention. And while I understand that, my frustration was from just out of the gate and what occurred that entire first 5/8ths of a mile. At no time did this horse settle.
Had he settled, I think he wins. Watching my horse burn energy at the wrong time was without a doubt the most frustrating thing to watch during a race of mine. You just can't allow that. And that's not to say the rider could have in that race but undoing the mental side of getting the horse to settle, listen and respond is so darn difficult that when you have it, you don't ever want to lose it. Without watching earlier replays, I don't know if this horse has ever settled. When I see big blinker cups, , frothing at the mouth, and a rider that can't settle his mount to chill out, I know it can be a battle. Some horses never can. That can make a potentially 20k horse worth about a third of that. I would hope he wears a shadow roll next out to try and get his head down a little so he can level off.

While I wanted to blame the rider, maybe that was unfair. Maybe this horse is just to fired up and jittery and makes the rider look bad. I have not watched previous replays of this horse or I could quickly know which one it was.

Whatever the case, it is almost impossible to get a horse away from running with their head too high, nervous, etc. without the horses cooperation. Hopefully we see that next time he runs. And the main thing will be to get the horse to relax immediately upon the break. Once he's mentally gone, he does not seem to think about settling down.

[JBEX]

in response to batt and str ..still can't multiple quote..

but do you think , to a degree anyway, that being steadied after the start (for a front running horse) along with running on a new surface might have had him a bit disoriented ..the aggresive move to the battle for the lead on the backstretch may have been the horse not wanting to be restrained due to unfamiliarity with this style of running ?


I get the feeling if this was the case you guys would've mentioned it to begin with

[str]

that was a hot mess of a trip to say the least and outside of the obvious..steadied just out of the gate and very wide on the turn,backstretch and far turn..sure there's a lot more to it than that str will comment on ..something after all he did how he came again in the stretch to nail 3rd


if anybody played him with the 6 and 1 they certainly weren't disappointed with the order of finish




.

I would critic that ride but I think I would get an upset stomach while typing about it.

Gotta try and keep the blood pressure under control. Lol.

[str]

All I can say is wow with the way...#2 come on mulitch was ridden.. unreal the horse ran well despite the jockey interference

Apparently, this jockey on the AM is pretty solid according to his numbers. Have to admit though, I might opt to go in the men's room for the race and just listen to the call instead of forcing myself to watch that.
Man, my eyes hurt and I am kind of speechless. Rare for me, Lol.

[JBEX]

almost $76k wps is a decent size pool for a track like turf paradise

[JBEX]

All I can say is wow with the way...#2 come on mulitch was ridden.. unreal the horse ran well despite the jockey interference

that was a hot mess of a trip to say the least and outside of the obvious..steadied just out of the gate and very wide on the turn,backstretch and far turn..sure there's a lot more to it than that str will comment on ..something after all he did how he came again in the stretch to nail 3rd


if anybody played him with the 6 and 1 they certainly weren't disappointed with the order of finish




.

[batt33]

On an unrelated note, I spoke about a steroidal that I threw out of my barn and can’t say enough bad things about a couple of weeks ago. I couldn’t remember the name of that garbage but saw it written today so I thought I would pass it along.
its name is Clenbuterol. It was very popular in the 90’s and now illegal. I happened to see it when reading about the quarter horse positives that are ongoing.
IMO, anyone using that kind of garbage should have their license revoked.
While I understand the short term use on a farm, out of competition, and under strict observation by a licensed vet that is working in the horse’s best interest, it has no place IMO on the racetrack.
and those quarter horse trainers that got multiple positives with steroids? They should be glad I’m not the judge.

Amen to that! I Love the higher standards at Los alamitos.....

[batt33]

All I can say is wow with the way...#2 come on mulitch was ridden.. unreal the horse ran well despite the jockey interference

[str]

On an unrelated note, I spoke about a steroidal that I threw out of my barn and can’t say enough bad things about a couple of weeks ago. I couldn’t remember the name of that garbage but saw it written today so I thought I would pass it along.
its name is Clenbuterol. It was very popular in the 90’s and now illegal. I happened to see it when reading about the quarter horse positives that are ongoing.
IMO, anyone using that kind of garbage should have their license revoked.
While I understand the short term use on a farm, out of competition, and under strict observation by a licensed vet that is working in the horse’s best interest, it has no place IMO on the racetrack.
and those quarter horse trainers that got multiple positives with steroids? They should be glad I’m not the judge.

[JBEX]

I agree JBEX. This AM does have upside and hidden form as well as liking the grass in all probability. I just noticed that a couple of others have kind of the same thing. Real nice % for this AM trainer in this situation for sure. And agree, the 1 is too easy and with all the other hidden form/ nice %'s floating around in here, if I played it would have to include some exactas or triple with the AM and some of those others that have muddied form. Plenty of good numbers with several to find a nice payout if you can put it together.

while I wouldn't play #1 on top could play him underneath..like the post and he gets back in about 1/3 the time of his short layoff ..seems to always put in an effort with wide and bad trips mixed in..other for me would be #6..war front dam sire and jock good on turf..for turf paradise cost a decent amount and not up for sale with the optional condition ..jock a decent turf rider..regular works since late january and guess they may have been considering dmr for him as a 2yo which is certainly a positive in my eyes



.

[str]

1 7 8 10 have run decent races from limited opportunities in turf routes but the 1 is way too obvious and always avoid those types in maiden races..don't care for the trainer to boot..like something that's at least a little hidden..horse by army mule's trainer is excellent with new turf runners has a nice inside post and highly likely to be on the lead by himself ..AM's ,as you know, like the turf (just had a debut winner going 2 turns over the weekend) and pioneer of the nile (dam sire and also sire of american pharoah) is above avg with turf runners and has some nice class to go with it
..between his races and works should be fit .. lots of good things here imo

I agree JBEX. This AM does have upside and hidden form as well as liking the grass in all probability. I just noticed that a couple of others have kind of the same thing. Real nice % for this AM trainer in this situation for sure. And agree, the 1 is too easy and with all the other hidden form/ nice %'s floating around in here, if I played it would have to include some exactas or triple with the AM and some of those others that have muddied form. Plenty of good numbers with several to find a nice payout if you can put it together.

[JBEX]

This race has horses jumping up and running well, then running not very well . Just kind of all over the place IMO. Also some solid percentages on trainers with certain situations. A lot to take in.
Without watching these run before, it seems like half the field could win, including this one. This would take a lot of film study to sort them out for me. Do you see it like that JBEX?

1 7 8 10 have run decent races from limited opportunities in turf routes but the 1 is way too obvious and always avoid those types in maiden races..don't care for the trainer to boot..like something that's at least a little hidden..horse by army mule's trainer is excellent with new turf runners has a nice inside post and highly likely to be on the lead by himself ..AM's ,as you know, like the turf (just had a debut winner going 2 turns over the weekend) and pioneer of the nile (dam sire and also sire of american pharoah) is above avg with turf runners and has some nice class to go with it
..between his races and works should be fit .. lots of good things here imo

[str]

by army mule

turf paradise R8 @ 7:16 weds
#2 come on mulitch (6-1)



.

This race has horses jumping up and running well, then running not very well . Just kind of all over the place IMO. Also some solid percentages on trainers with certain situations. A lot to take in.
Without watching these run before, it seems like half the field could win, including this one. This would take a lot of film study to sort them out for me. Do you see it like that JBEX?

[JBEX]

by army mule

turf paradise R8 @ 7:16 weds
#2 come on mulitch (6-1)



.

[str]

no big deal str .. the 2 things that caught my eye were how she quickly spurted away from the pack when they got close (about 38 secs on track reply)
and the final 3-4 secs of the race appeared to be a hand ride ..my thought was she did it easy and might be good for a quick comeback..what you said makes sense..monitor and see..have to think they are at least considering running in that race

Yeah. Have to think they are considering the quick turnaround. They also have the luxury of entering and scratching the day of if they are not satisfied.
should be interesting.

[JBEX]

Sorry JBEX. I missed the fact that she has run before. Just been distracted the last few days.
I guess that slow time is in line with older boys. Still didn’t really like how she looked late. Have to watch it again I guess.
if I had to make the choice of running back quickly or not, I think my approach would be not to run her but give her the chance to talk me into it by all she shows and eats, acts, etc. What I mean is, I would give her the opportunity to talk me into running her for the next two - three days or so .

no big deal str .. the 2 things that caught my eye were how she quickly spurted away from the pack when they got close (about 38 secs on track reply)
and the final 3-4 secs of the race appeared to be a hand ride ..my thought was she did it easy and might be good for a quick comeback..what you said makes sense..monitor and see..have to think they are at least considering running in that race

[str]

thanks str


these were the final 2 calls of her race and a race for the boys later on in the card..latter same distance of course


1:00.97 / 1:15.12 (14.15)
3up ohio msw fillies (hers)

1:00.74 / 1:13.90 (13.16)
3up open alw n2L boys

I would think about a second final eighth and time would be about right ,maybe even good, factoring msw ohio fillies vs open alw colts

also she wasn't a debut horse and was making her 5th career start..we discussed this horse before in her previous start

Sorry JBEX. I missed the fact that she has run before. Just been distracted the last few days.
I guess that slow time is in line with older boys. Still didn’t really like how she looked late. Have to watch it again I guess.
if I had to make the choice of running back quickly or not, I think my approach would be not to run her but give her the chance to talk me into it by all she shows and eats, acts, etc. What I mean is, I would give her the opportunity to talk me into running her for the next two - three days or so .

[JBEX]

Hmm. Such a perfect post, break, and setup, I was a bit surprised with the way she finished to be honest. I suppose that track is slow?? That last 1/8th in 15 is ugly and I do not care for the fronts ON as a firster. Guess she needs them but wonder why?

With everything going a perfect as you could ask for, and finishing up in :15 the last 1/8th, making a determination from what I saw, I would not run her back in 6 days. I think she needs to be more solid which could be as simple as foundation and needing to build that up but I have a hunch that race might have taken more out of her than it should have.
My guess would be, pass the race and work on getting the horse better in every way.

With breaking nicely, having the box, and the race pretty much over after 5 seconds, I feel she could have been much better than she showed. Just my feeling. Certainly could be wrong but it didn't feel as good as it should have for me.

thanks str


these were the final 2 calls of her race and a race for the boys later on in the card..latter same distance of course


1:00.97 / 1:15.12 (14.15)
3up ohio msw fillies (hers)

1:00.74 / 1:13.90 (13.16)
3up open alw n2L boys

I would think about a second final eighth and time would be about right ,maybe even good, factoring msw ohio fillies vs open alw colts

also she wasn't a debut horse and was making her 5th career start..we discussed this horse before in her previous start

[str]

they have an alw n2L for 3 year old fillies (only) @ 6f on 3/31 ..it's open company but I think it doesn't make as much of a difference there at about a $26k purse ; plus they have up to $15k in breeders awards for ohio bred horses ..pretty nice ! with such a convincing win you think they might consider trying that race coming back in only 1 week str .. especially factoring you have an army mule class edge ? assuming the connections might view it that way also lol

Hmm. Such a perfect post, break, and setup, I was a bit surprised with the way she finished to be honest. I suppose that track is slow?? That last 1/8th in 15 is ugly and I do not care for the fronts ON as a firster. Guess she needs them but wonder why?

With everything going a perfect as you could ask for, and finishing up in :15 the last 1/8th, making a determination from what I saw, I would not run her back in 6 days. I think she needs to be more solid which could be as simple as foundation and needing to build that up but I have a hunch that race might have taken more out of her than it should have.
My guess would be, pass the race and work on getting the horse better in every way.

With breaking nicely, having the box, and the race pretty much over after 5 seconds, I feel she could have been much better than she showed. Just my feeling. Certainly could be wrong but it didn't feel as good as it should have for me.

[JBEX]

wired field and won by 10 lengths @ 3-5 ..hand ridden near the end

they have an alw n2L for 3 year old fillies (only) @ 6f on 3/31 ..it's open company but I think it doesn't make as much of a difference there at about a $26k purse ; plus they have up to $15k in breeders awards for ohio bred horses ..pretty nice ! with such a convincing win you think they might consider trying that race coming back in only 1 week str .. especially factoring you have an army mule class edge ? assuming the connections might view it that way also lol

[JBEX]

by army mule .. mon mahoning R3 @ 1:11
#6 holidays army brat (2-1)

wired field and won by 10 lengths @ 3-5 ..hand ridden near the end

[Easy-Rider 66]

I forgot to mention the blinkers BACK ON. 22% the trainer is in that spot. That was a real factor in this horses form as well.

yeah +5.49 ROI on that move, albeit in a 9 race sample. THX

[str]

^ THX STR your take makes sense. 50/1 shots don't happen too often and there is a reason for that. LOL. I figured with shades on and improved works (and trainer good with blinks back on) it was worth a shot at those odds. THX again.

I forgot to mention the blinkers BACK ON. 22% the trainer is in that spot. That was a real factor in this horses form as well.

[Easy-Rider 66]

nvm wrong thread my bad

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ THX STR your take makes sense. 50/1 shots don't happen too often and there is a reason for that. LOL. I figured with shades on and improved works (and trainer good with blinks back on) it was worth a shot at those odds. THX again.

[str]

Hey STR: want to get your professional opinion on AQ R9 today. The horse in question is the #3 First Pitch. He wired the field at 9 panels and scored at 50/1. You can access the form thru Speightster. He did nothing first 2 starts. The trainer put the shades back on after taking them off his 2nd start. His works seemed to improve recently. I know you have said many times the shades can make a big difference. Would you have considered the recent works if you were looking over the form before the race? THX.

Well, you know from our conversations EZ , that blinkers ON, and the improved recent works,, especially that gate work is something I really put stock in.. There is little doubt he wore blinkers for that work out of the gate, and 48 flat is a nice move from the gate. Also remember, in almost all instances, a gate work should be a little quicker than you might think because THE CLOCKERS DO NOT CLOCK IT FROM THE GATE. They hear the bell, realize a horse is working from the gate, pick up the timing from one 16th of a mile later and add 7 seconds. So they clock 3 1/2 furlongs and add 7 seconds to get the 1/2 mile time. The clockers cannot focus on the gate for 2-3 minutes waiting to clock the moment the horse leaves because they will most likely miss a couple other workers break off poles at various spots.
So while most works are at a running start. Gate works are from a stand still. That is why they add 7 seconds instead of maybe 6 seconds. Hope that part makes sense.
So a 48 from the gate is actually faster than a 48 from the pole because the pole horse ran into the pole while the gate worker started at a standstill.

All that said, if I had done this race, this horse would have survived my first cut and certainly made it to the 2nd round of viewing all the horses. Depending on the rest of the field, I then would have placed this horse in my head as possible speed or position based on blinkers on. Once I decided on the basic shape of speed, stalk, close, I cannot say I would have had this horse still in consideration late but most handicappers probably dismissed this one immediately and there is no way I would have.

When I looked at the pp's and did what I would have done, which you are familiar with, I would have found the 1,2,4, and maybe 6 as possible speeds. The common theme between them all is that none of them are very solid at all. I see no real threat as a closer in here at all. They are plodders, which these 1 1/8th maidens are most of the time.

So this horse would have survived until the final 4 horses were more scrutinized. The blinkers ON and the very nice and better than before works would have allowed me to not throw the 3 out most likely.
Then I would have had to settle on who I thought could finish up. I cannot possibly say that I would have used this horse. I don't know what I would have concluded. But looking again at the closers and having no use for the speeds, there is at least some chance I would have made a small ,play on this horse simply because the field was terrible, he was blinkers on, and had improved works, especially that gate work which was 12 /183 and the latest work 5/154.
But being totally honest EZ, while I could have maybe landed on a small win bet on this horse, it would have been for the fact that this field was terrible . AND, I cannot see how I would have concluded that he would go wire to wire. No way. I would have bet him thinking maybe he can lay 4th or 5th to very slow horses 4 or 5 lengths off the lead held by the slow, weak speeds, and blinkers ON maybe gets him running late and out finishing the slow plodders.

So that would have been on of those races where you look really sharp but you know in your head you were just taking a shot on the works and blks. on and against a terrible field, and it worked.

Does that make sense EZ?

[str]

Following a scary incident at the top of the stretch in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park March 22, trainer Thomas Drury Jr. was happy to report California Burrito emerged from the race in good order. "We're so blessed that everything's fine," Drury Jr. said March 23. "The good news is, as of this morning, he looks to be very sound. He was quiet—he ran hard and was tired—but absolutely nothing out of the ordinary."


Drury Jr. said after conversations with the colt's apprentice rider, Irving Moncada, that they believe the incident was caused by California Burrito spooking at tire tracks left over from the starting gate's removal. "He had locked onto the tire track well before he got to it. Anybody that's ridden horses; you can feel them sucking back on you," Drury Jr. said. "(Moncada) said all of a sudden the head came up and (California Burrito) just kind of shut off. When he got to the tire tracks, he couldn't decide if he wanted to jump it or duck away from it. He ended up just kind of halfway stumbling over it." Once the incident occurred, the race was lost and Moncada started to ease up on his mount and make sure the colt made it back safe, a move Drury Jr. praised. "This is where Irving is a little bit ahead of his ti

Real good news here EZ. If you look at your picture with your name here you can see that the horse jumping is kind of curled up with his neck and head. When any horse jumps, that is exactly what they do to be able to, as well as throw all their weight to the back portion of their body. You must slow down to be able to do that . It's almost like they are hesitating FOR a second while they coil themselves.
And if they are thinking, something I elude to often while watching these replays, it directly affects there stride and focus. That's what happened in that race.

Appreciate the update EZ.