Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

couple of army mule 2 year old msw debuters(colt and filly) going at churchill sat and sun .. both trained by eddie keneally and both days it's R2 .. it's opening day there and that's a lot of respect for them with those morning lines

saturday

churchill 2 (1:20)
1 sgt bilko (7-2)

sunday

churchill 2 (1:14)
8 she's toasty (4-1)

Those ML numbers are impressive for Keenland.

Just a heads up for the readers.

When an Army Mule is running at any track, like Laurel, Phila. Park, anywhere that is not a premier track ( Saratoga, Keenland Santa Anita) and you see morning lines of 8-1 or higher, do yourself a favor and spend some time looking at that race.

Typically most handicappers know little about firsters other than connections, riders, or workouts. In more cases than not, that's all the morning line guy knows as well.
With Army Mules, what you know going in is their ability and guts factor is most likely top 1,2,3 in any race they run. And because of that, and running at a normal group of talent type field, not top of the line, that puts them pretty close to the best 1- 2-3 horses in that race before any handicapping even starts.

By comparison, those Keenland morning lines make those horses even money at 2nd tier tracks.

Hope that makes sense because it is absolutely true. GL.

[JBEX]

couple of army mule 2 year old msw debuters(colt and filly) going at churchill sat and sun .. both trained by eddie keneally and both days it's R2 .. it's opening day there and that's a lot of respect for them with those morning lines

saturday

churchill 2 (1:20)
1 sgt bilko (7-2)

sunday

churchill 2 (1:14)
8 she's toasty (4-1)

[batt33]

Bacio: On Track Footage

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG6036_1777042926083/MP4/IMG6036_1777042926083.mp4

Bacio was spotted jogging this morning at Keeneland. Trainer Wesley Ward is very happy with how your son of Maclean’s Music is coming into his three-year-old debut.

[batt33]

Man… I wish he would chill out a little off the pole. You don’t earn any money in the morning.
I didn’t see it though and a chance he’s just gliding around there. Hope so.

Yeah I wish I had a video also..

[batt33]

I really do try before just typing whatever is on my mind, to take a minute and make sure I want to read my post a week , month or a year later and not question it. I do that so as to try and keep raw opinions that are maybe not that well thought out from being said and regretting them. So, let me say that the answer is NO. I will not regret this and YES, they are still raw :

The horse racing Hall of Fame, for all it's wonderful and hard working people that indeed put quite a bit into the decisions made, are in my opinion, (like anybody gives a damn about that) , lost. Lost how?

From where I sit, and I suppose like most panels that vote people in or keep out, they allow their direct opinions and the seemingly prevailing social ,(uppity)climate that is obvious to those on the outside looking in to dictate their decisions.


They wait for two trainers to die and then they are inducted. Both should have been in already. They list people or horses and seem to make it about anything except what it is supposed to be which is an actual Hall of Fame represented by people or horses that over achieved , dominated, passed on greatness to there offspring in the horses cases, and knowledge, class, respect for the game, etc. for people who worked within a system for those trainers. Trainers that DID NOT CHEAT ! It should be about trainers that went from nothing, to spectacular heights. Sure, it can be about trainers that were always in a great position and delivered in a Hall Of Fame manner. But it needs to be BOTH.

Seems like it is a reserved for "Blue Bloods" group, that does not take full bodies of work into consideration as much as the whose who and in the "Club" or not a part of it. Not as much what you did with what you had, but who you trained for and who you knew.

The Hall of Fame, when it comes to people inducted IMO, should be a body of work, honesty, integrity, dedication, and what was passed on from them after they are gone.
I would say please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm NOT. It is blatantly obvious. And while I will always applaud those who are inducted, I will reserve the right to know in my mind who was NOT part of the club and therefore rejected. Or, who is in but would they have been in if they were in a different situation?
No explanations or reasons are ever given for those that are rejected. That elite, better and more knowledgeable than others stance, is exactly why I have lost all respect for the horse racing hall of fame. Not to say this way of thinking does not exist everywhere because we all know it does. What bothers me is that those within it, think that we that are not in it, are either na

Well said STR.... It does seem like a club. I often wonder why a couple of Nor Cal trainers never even got a wiff... well respected by their peers and did some amazing things with the few horses they had... I have a couple in mind and your comments made me think of them again....

[str]

I really do try before just typing whatever is on my mind, to take a minute and make sure I want to read my post a week , month or a year later and not question it. I do that so as to try and keep raw opinions that are maybe not that well thought out from being said and regretting them. So, let me say that the answer is NO. I will not regret this and YES, they are still raw :

The horse racing Hall of Fame, for all it's wonderful and hard working people that indeed put quite a bit into the decisions made, are in my opinion, (like anybody gives a damn about that) , lost. Lost how?

From where I sit, and I suppose like most panels that vote people in or keep out, they allow their direct opinions and the seemingly prevailing social ,(uppity)climate that is obvious to those on the outside looking in to dictate their decisions.


They wait for two trainers to die and then they are inducted. Both should have been in already. They list people or horses and seem to make it about anything except what it is supposed to be which is an actual Hall of Fame represented by people or horses that over achieved , dominated, passed on greatness to there offspring in the horses cases, and knowledge, class, respect for the game, etc. for people who worked within a system for those trainers. Trainers that DID NOT CHEAT ! It should be about trainers that went from nothing, to spectacular heights. Sure, it can be about trainers that were always in a great position and delivered in a Hall Of Fame manner. But it needs to be BOTH.

Seems like it is a reserved for "Blue Bloods" group, that does not take full bodies of work into consideration as much as the whose who and in the "Club" or not a part of it. Not as much what you did with what you had, but who you trained for and who you knew.

The Hall of Fame, when it comes to people inducted IMO, should be a body of work, honesty, integrity, dedication, and what was passed on from them after they are gone.
I would say please correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm NOT. It is blatantly obvious. And while I will always applaud those who are inducted, I will reserve the right to know in my mind who was NOT part of the club and therefore rejected. Or, who is in but would they have been in if they were in a different situation?
No explanations or reasons are ever given for those that are rejected. That elite, better and more knowledgeable than others stance, is exactly why I have lost all respect for the horse racing hall of fame. Not to say this way of thinking does not exist everywhere because we all know it does. What bothers me is that those within it, think that we that are not in it, are either naive , stupid or both.

[str]

Some interesting fun facts on the Derby post position winners.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/291359/from-the-start-a-look-at-kentucky-derby-post-positions

PP 2 last winner Affirmed 1978
PP 9 Riva Ridge 1972
pp 12 Canonero 11 1971
PP 14 Carry Back 1961
PP 17 ******* ****
PP 19 one winner I'll have another 2012 ( had him in my future bets!)
among other tidbets

There are a couple rules of thumb that typically match up but no way to know the trips by just the post position. Closers that are middle posts tend to get shuffled back from both sides making it tough. Speed from the inside makes the horse burn too early usually. Laying mid pack is a tough one . The post can help or hurt but the traffic flow is usually unpredictable because of the volume of starters.

We usually look back and see that the winner had a nice trip all things( like the amount of horses running) considered. That is a crap chute to try and figure out beforehand . Betting this race during the running would give you an edge but it would be a year to year thing. Really focused on a few horses trips and if they get those after the 1st 3/8ths could be a profitable play but you have to be willing to also pass it unless something jumped out. Over time, probably a plus EV situation but it takes a ton of patience. Just like most plus EV things do.

[str]

Black Tie Optional Breeze Report



Black Tie Optional breezed a sharp 3/8 this morning at Los Al in :35.80.(1/5) Assistant trainer Mike Marlow said he looked great doing it. We’ll be out to visit your colt soon and will be sure to pass along fresh content afterwards.

Man… I wish he would chill out a little off the pole. You don’t earn any money in the morning.
I didn’t see it though and a chance he’s just gliding around there. Hope so.

[batt33]

Some interesting fun facts on the Derby post position winners.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/291359/from-the-start-a-look-at-kentucky-derby-post-positions

PP 2 last winner Affirmed 1978
PP 9 Riva Ridge 1972
pp 12 Canonero 11 1971
PP 14 Carry Back 1961
PP 17 ******* ****
PP 19 one winner I'll have another 2012 ( had him in my future bets!)
among other tidbets

[batt33]

Black Tie Optional Breeze Report



Black Tie Optional breezed a sharp 3/8 this morning at Los Al in :35.80.(1/5) Assistant trainer Mike Marlow said he looked great doing it. We’ll be out to visit your colt soon and will be sure to pass along fresh content afterwards.

[batt33]

Looking forward to Bacio Running!
Bacio: Breeze & Entry

Bacio had his final work this morning at Keeneland, going :49.80 over the turf course and with the dogs up (cones protecting the inner part of the turf course, effectively making the work longer). Your son of Maclean's Music was subsequently entered for Tuesday, Apr. 28 in race 9 at Churchill Downs with Juan Hernandez in the irons.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG5988_1776794647633/MP4/IMG5988_1776794647633.mp4

[batt33]

Glad to hear that Batt. Those stents seem to really do the trick . We certainly had luck with it as well. Everyday with mom and dad is a blessing . I know you realize that. Keep up the great work. We can talk about horses anytime. All the very best to you and your family !

Thanks STR!

[batt33]

98+% of the time (including this) I'm not playing these batt .. daily picks , army mule progeny , horse follows (kingsbarns,deterministic) , future bets .. I've been upfront about this on here over the years .. honestly it doesn't even sting a little when things hit .. broken in well lol


glad your dad is OK

Copy that and thanks!

[JBEX]

horseshoe 7 (5:16)
7 stuck in park (6-1)
army mule first time starter.. 3 year old
out [2-1]

pretty much eliminated being bumped at the start ..made up lots of ground through the backstretch ,around the turn and well into the stretch ..did a lot of running and will likely improve next out

[str]

they finished 1st and 2nd .. 87 exacta pd $45.20 and they were 7-2 and 4-1 in that order

This is so cool. I sure hope fans are seeing this AM stuff. What an edge to have going into looking a race over.

[str]

awe geez I meant to look at that... Hope you had it!!

Dad had a stent put in "95% blockage" I was a little sidetracked... He is home and doing well!

Glad to hear that Batt. Those stents seem to really do the trick . We certainly had luck with it as well. Everyday with mom and dad is a blessing . I know you realize that. Keep up the great work. We can talk about horses anytime. All the very best to you and your family !

[JBEX]

awe geez I meant to look at that... Hope you had it!!

Dad had a stent put in "95% blockage" I was a little sidetracked... He is home and doing well!

98+% of the time (including this) I'm not playing these batt .. daily picks , army mule progeny , horse follows (kingsbarns,deterministic) , future bets .. I've been upfront about this on here over the years .. honestly it doesn't even sting a little when things hit .. broken in well lol


glad your dad is OK

[batt33]

they finished 1st and 2nd .. 87 exacta pd $45.20 and they were 7-2 and 4-1 in that order

awe geez I meant to look at that... Hope you had it!!

Dad had a stent put in "95% blockage" I was a little sidetracked... He is home and doing well!

[JBEX]

couple of army mules breaking side by side at horseshoe indy R8 on tuesday .. it's a 3 up statebred msw @ 5.5f

7 army fever (12-1)
8 honorabledischarge (8-1)

they finished 1st and 2nd .. 87 exacta pd $45.20 and they were 7-2 and 4-1 in that order

[JBEX]

Remember how Kingsbarns just kind of learned to relax and be just different enough to be better? Think he was in his mid 4 yr. old season when he turned the corner. That is typically when it happens. So I think you look back at the race last Saturday and compare it to a race they run this August or Sept. and you will see a different animal running. Their brains will be much more full of knowledge. Just another reason to not try and do too much in a first start back off the 3 yr. old year. Constantly try and build upwards. You don't want to have to stop climbing and address something that happened last race if you can help it. Now, both of those horses need to do that. Another reason why to avoid one another, especially Journalism.

makes sense what your saying that at this stage they're kind of learning on the fly and you're not looking to take a lot of time to correct things .. nice luxury KB had was he got to start out in an allowance race but he was also much less accomplished for the start of his 4yo season then these two were .. ran a very professional race at 7f and that probably set him up nicely for the 3 solid stakes efforts afterwards .. definitely was a more professional and polished horse than he was as a 3yo .. shame he couldn't have continued on and have a shot at the breeders cup

[str]

Remember how Kingsbarns just kind of learned to relax and be just different enough to be better? Think he was in his mid 4 yr. old season when he turned the corner. That is typically when it happens. So I think you look back at the race last Saturday and compare it to a race they run this August or Sept. and you will see a different animal running. Their brains will be much more full of knowledge. Just another reason to not try and do too much in a first start back off the 3 yr. old year. Constantly try and build upwards. You don't want to have to stop climbing and address something that happened last race if you can help it. Now, both of those horses need to do that. Another reason why to avoid one another, especially Journalism.

[JBEX]

looking at JOU pp's from the oaklawn handicap , imo looks like a mile might be a good fit for him

[JBEX]

WA was prepared for either scenario. They went 23 1/5th early. Irad is tremendous! He can feel the time like the good ones can. Not that the others didn’t but this is about mindset. Sov came out running and the rider lightly brushed the stick on his right shoulder up and down a couple times. Being so fresh, that’s all it took. He was committed to attending the pace. Journalism was committed to staying close to Sov. So what’s that allow Irad to do? It lets him tap the breaks once both cannot un commit , so he taps the brakes on an old war horse, sits 3rd to two horses both in a strange place, they continue to worry about each other, and WA chills off the duel, and goes right on by being the fittest of the three.
That was a master class ! Just great. And honestly, WA was a clear winner as they went down the backside. I’ll give the other two credit for finishing as well as they did.
I would expect Sov. To relax more next out and get back to his normal business. I would expect Journalism to avoid both Sovereignty next out and focus on his business and WA? He can just keep being himself but do be aware of him being over bet next out. Can’t imagine any value in his next race except trying to beat him.
Glad some tickets were cashed. That was fun.

it's interesting that as much as they both accomplished in their 3yo seasons there's still things that can be learned by them as 4 year olds .. I guess by 5 with a reasonable amount of races most will have developed the racetrack savvy they'll need to handle a lot of adverse situations .. be great if these 2 hung around for a 5yo campaign but doubt that will happen with all the stallion money in front of them .. possibly the middle east race $$ might make the connections think twice about early retirement .. sure they'll both improve going forward with this experience in them

I agree white abarrio will be an underlay next out .. serious beyer (111) for the race so both SOV and JOU also had big figures.. think off that race JOU might be an interesting candidate for the met mile on the belmont stakes undercard at saratoga .. one way to probably not meet up with SOV next out.. whatever path these 3 decide to go the big races over the summer will be a lot of fun to watch

[str]

Catching up on the threads! I've been dealing with the parents... Dad and I are good... He needs either 2 stents or open heart surgery... his choice... anyway taking a look at the Oaklawn race!

Just saw the Flight line colt when for 10.5 million at the OBS sale! Wholly smokes! Hopefully not another "green Monkey "for the buyers!

As far as my horses "closest to racing
Caldera ..My Kenttucky derby hopeful from last year... he has been training super well... looking for an allowance race... entered but races haven't been filling.

Caldera stretched his legs this morning at Palm Meadows through 3/8 in :36.95. He’s pretty much sitting on go at this point, so doesn’t need to do much as we wait for a race. The same race we were looking at as an extra is back in the new condition book for Apr. 30, so that will be the target for now.

Bacio ..The turf speed freak... is pointed to a race derby week at keenland
Bacio worked the bullet five furlongs yesterday(10days ago)at Keeneland in :59.80 and exited the move in good order. Trainer Wesley Ward has his sights set on an allowance race on Apr. 28 at Churchill Downs (Derby week) to start off your colt’s sophomore campaign. The hope is to use that race as a potential springboard to a trip to Royal Ascot if Bacio runs well and seems up to the task.

Nakoma Update



Nakoma has been entered again today in a new extra at Gulfstream going 5 1/2 furlongs on the Tapeta. If it goes today it’ll be for Apr. 24, but with it being an extra it could take longer than one day to fill. Note that our racing team will be traveling back from Ocala right around when tonight’s overnight is released, but we’ll be sure to provide more info as soon as we can if/when the race goes.

still have a few others getting back or winding up

Black Tie Optional Check In



We checked in on Black Tie Optional this morning at Los Alamitos. He’s looking good and likely two to three weeks or so away from returning to the work tab.

Your colt’s sire Not This Time was represented today by G1 Dubai World Cup hero Magnitude.

Batt, he keeps changing ever so slightly like they do sometimes. All for the better. No more butter ball . He looks GREAT. Love this horse.

[str]

Pretty interesting to read the Jockey's comments after he race. Irad thought he would be on the lead but couldn't get there in the beginning so sat back. Sovereignty was feeling his oats and Alvarado just let him go.. rather than fight him... Jose didn't want to let Sovereignty get away so he pressed him allowing his brother to set in the cat birds seat.

Didn’t see the comments but I know what I saw. So cool to see.

[str]

Nice call!

He absolutely stole one B12. Just not the conventional way but that was brilliant IMO.
I be love seeing that stuff.

[str]

I don't consider this to be what happened as they were all aggressively sent to the lead.. wound up being that pace scenario though

W A was always where he was on his own due to the extensive warm up. So getting him to chill was pretty easy with all his experience. The other two were lightly somewhat but still, they were asked to attend up front early and you just cant do that on an inexperienced horse like those two and change it up. Inexperienced on the lead that is.

[str]

would you say str that saffie joseph and irad were thinking things might unfold like this especially given the way irad warmed WA up prior to the race
.. have to think they were not totally surprised that they might wind up with the stalking trip

WA was prepared for either scenario. They went 23 1/5th early. Irad is tremendous! He can feel the time like the good ones can. Not that the others didn’t but this is about mindset. Sov came out running and the rider lightly brushed the stick on his right shoulder up and down a couple times. Being so fresh, that’s all it took. He was committed to attending the pace. Journalism was committed to staying close to Sov. So what’s that allow Irad to do? It lets him tap the breaks once both cannot un commit , so he taps the brakes on an old war horse, sits 3rd to two horses both in a strange place, they continue to worry about each other, and WA chills off the duel, and goes right on by being the fittest of the three.
That was a master class ! Just great. And honestly, WA was a clear winner as they went down the backside. I’ll give the other two credit for finishing as well as they did.
I would expect Sov. To relax more next out and get back to his normal business. I would expect Journalism to avoid both Sovereignty next out and focus on his business and WA? He can just keep being himself but do be aware of him being over bet next out. Can’t imagine any value in his next race except trying to beat him.
Glad some tickets were cashed. That was fun.

[JBEX]

couple of army mules breaking side by side at horseshoe indy R8 on tuesday .. it's a 3 up statebred msw @ 5.5f

7 army fever (12-1)
8 honorabledischarge (8-1)

[BOA12]

Nice call!

His race to win or lose, catch me if you can.

Last chance to go against Sovrghnty.

Stopped a sorry Saturday at Lexington

and bailed me out.

[JBEX]

Pretty interesting to read the Jockey's comments after he race. Irad thought he would be on the lead but couldn't get there in the beginning so sat back. Sovereignty was feeling his oats and Alvarado just let him go.. rather than fight him... Jose didn't want to let Sovereignty get away so he pressed him allowing his brother to set in the cat birds seat.

both SOV and JOU had been relatively close to some very honest paces in their last few races so I don't think it was a shocker they were able to get the lead in that race .. not their regular running style but WA not really a committed front runner either .. not what I thought would happen though

[batt33]

hey str

I think on paper white abarrio will be the speed in the big race but what good is it to have sovereignty sitting right off your flank .. how about throwing a bit of a curveball , take back after the break , "possibly" getting SOV to do something he's never done and wind up on the lead .. be the pressee vs being the pressed .. like to know what your thoughts are on the race besides
that

Pretty interesting to read the Jockey's comments after he race. Irad thought he would be on the lead but couldn't get there in the beginning so sat back. Sovereignty was feeling his oats and Alvarado just let him go.. rather than fight him... Jose didn't want to let Sovereignty get away so he pressed him allowing his brother to set in the cat birds seat.

[batt33]

Thanks J

buys a lot of hay.

I'm playing White Aborrio to " steal one " 2day.

Nice call!

[JBEX]

hey str

I think on paper white abarrio will be the speed in the big race but what good is it to have sovereignty sitting right off your flank .. how about throwing a bit of a curveball , take back after the break , "possibly" getting SOV to do something he's never done and wind up on the lead .. be the pressee vs being the pressed .. like to know what your thoughts are on the race besides
that

I don't consider this to be what happened as they were all aggressively sent to the lead.. wound up being that pace scenario though

[BOA12]

What a dream come true for White Abarrio. He warmed up with the full intention of settling on the front end early. So much so that while the other horses were lining up and walking to the gate, WA was still jogging in figure 8's back and forth to the gate and back to the other horses. That got the other riders attention late in the post parade and it got into their head that W.A. would be gunning for the lead. They assumed they would need to break and go just enough so as to not allow a 25-50 first couple of fractions. So, the gate opens, both former 3 yr. olds pay strict attention to W.A. and decide they would try and put a little pressure on him so that 25-50 fraction split scenario does not happen. Then, Irad, seeing the other riders using their horses just enough to lean on W.A., pulls the plug and takes back. Whoops !!

Within the next 5 strides, the setup was so perfect for W.A. to stalk 3rd with a totally clean right eye, and simply wait to pounce as they turned for home. Both Sov. and Journalism found themselves in the classic fish out of water scenario. Both riders had to be sick going down the backside. Only one thing was left to happen. W.A. simply had to respond when Irad asked him. That's it. Nothing else.
And, he did. Both Sov. and Journalism were left out of lung capacity and totally out of their element the last 1/8th of a mile.
A not so surprising " Welcome to 4 years old and upward guys".

I have to think both trainers were sick going into the 1st turn. I know I would have been. The 7 yr., old with a race under his belt who has won a BC Classic and 7+ Million gets the catbird seat against two just turned 4 yr. olds that have not run in months after a hard fought 3yr. old campaigns.

For those that played W.A., it really doesn't get much more fun than that. Wow !

Did play in the setting sun

and attest it was fun.