Well so much for trying to beat the best horses in the Belmont. Somethings I'll never learn I guess.
Chancer McPatrick: He is lost IMO. It just isn't there. The only thing I would do would be to find a spot he could win going 1 turn no matter how weak the field. Heck with the purse, hw needs to get his head right. Shame to see and I totally understand the path they took, but drastic times call for drastic measures and I feel that that is where he is now.
Had a nice day going and bet more than we should have on him to win. But, you never stop learning in this game .
On a different note, I saw a lot of people (not here)complaining about taking the races off the turf and cancelling the two grade 1"s. I don't agree with that complaining at all.
It doesn't matter if the sun was out when the race was going to run. The turf course was deemed totally unsafe for all the horses. As much as it sucked for everybody, it was not just the right call, but the only call under the circumstances. Do people that are complaining think management wanted to cancel two Grade 1's on Belmont day at Saratoga? C'mon man.
Too bad but what if it was worse?
Horse Racing questions and answers
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We are up 66.00 on the day betting 10 and 20 a race.
20 win #3
20 win #6
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nice to see chancer back at 1 turn and where it all started for him..too bad it'll be sloppy though
deterministic goes in the following race and the turf is yielding..ran well in his 2nd try on the turf on a good track there so hopefully he'll take to even more give .. good luck today
I'm kind of excited to get a ton of printers ink on by hands again.Leave a comment:
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nice to see chancer back at 1 turn and where it all started for him..too bad it'll be sloppy though
deterministic goes in the following race and the turf is yielding..ran well in his 2nd try on the turf on a good track there so hopefully he'll take to even more give .. good luck todayLeave a comment:
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army mule saturday
cd 2 (1:14) #5 hope restored (5-1)
parx 4 (1:26) #1 la de peluche (5-2)
cd 11 (5:58) #3 colonel caliente (7-2)Leave a comment:
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Well it's off to Laurel again today to see by friends and try and win a few bucks at the same time.
I have a lot to look at and the track condition is iffy as of now so we shall see.
I will try and post my pick for the Belmont with more than 1 minute to post this time.
I went through most of the card quickly just to get an overview and was pleasantly surprised to see our boy Chancer ** Patrick back in a one turn race going 7/8ths at Saratoga. I hope he reverts back to his old ways and finds his place back early, and in front late. Have to look at the field but cannot imagine I bet against him going that distance especially with following him and wanting to see this for a while now.
I'll check back later if anyone has a question about todays races.
Good luck everyone.
nice to see chancer back at 1 turn and where it all started for him..too bad it'll be sloppy though
deterministic goes in the following race and the turf is yielding..ran well in his 2nd try on the turf on a good track there so hopefully he'll take to even more give .. good luck todayLeave a comment:
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Well it's off to Laurel again today to see by friends and try and win a few bucks at the same time.
I have a lot to look at and the track condition is iffy as of now so we shall see.
I will try and post my pick for the Belmont with more than 1 minute to post this time.
I went through most of the card quickly just to get an overview and was pleasantly surprised to see our boy Chancer ** Patrick back in a one turn race going 7/8ths at Saratoga. I hope he reverts back to his old ways and finds his place back early, and in front late. Have to look at the field but cannot imagine I bet against him going that distance especially with following him and wanting to see this for a while now.
I'll check back later if anyone has a question about todays races.
Good luck everyone.👍 1Leave a comment:
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army mule ..friday
gulfstream 1 @ 12:50
#6 army medic (10-1)
saratoga 4 @ 1:28
#5 army gal (5-2)
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Well yes, a few do. But make no mistake. In this game you always hear about the wins. Not much talk about the losses.
That was what I found intriguing when I was betting in high school. It told me that the answer was probably not very many.
One thing I learned early and it was a big help for me was, when you bet and lose, see if you know afterwards why? Like, did your speed horse break terribly or did I not expect some others in the race to show as much speed as they did. If so, that could be a correctable error.
Most times, we throw our tickets away and move on to the next race. But I found there is quite a bit of information sometimes to be learned for next time.
So maybe try betting every other race on a typical day of racing. Go back and watch the replay afterwards and see what was different than how you thought it would be.
That leads to the first thing I will recommend.
Set the race up on paper beforehand and see if you are right afterwards. If you can get it fairly right, that is huge. Learning to see the race as it runs prior to it running can identify solo speed or a big speed duel with a solid closer or whatever.
Wont happen every race but it will happen. That’s a step towards being able to see things others don’t see.
Try that and even practice it on tV without bets and that will be a great start.
I think it is really key to figure out how each horse will most likely fair in how the race unfolds.
Let me know when you have tried that and we can take the next step.
Hope that helps.
It's kind of amazing how the watching of the race changes away from your ears to your eyes.
This does work. Give it a shot.
Again, no bet in the race. Just any race. See what more you can see. Just keep scanning front to back, front to back about every 5-8 seconds early on in the race.
Any feedback from anyone is great to hear.Leave a comment:
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I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?
That was what I found intriguing when I was betting in high school. It told me that the answer was probably not very many.
One thing I learned early and it was a big help for me was, when you bet and lose, see if you know afterwards why? Like, did your speed horse break terribly or did I not expect some others in the race to show as much speed as they did. If so, that could be a correctable error.
Most times, we throw our tickets away and move on to the next race. But I found there is quite a bit of information sometimes to be learned for next time.
So maybe try betting every other race on a typical day of racing. Go back and watch the replay afterwards and see what was different than how you thought it would be.
That leads to the first thing I will recommend.
Set the race up on paper beforehand and see if you are right afterwards. If you can get it fairly right, that is huge. Learning to see the race as it runs prior to it running can identify solo speed or a big speed duel with a solid closer or whatever.
Wont happen every race but it will happen. That’s a step towards being able to see things others don’t see.
Try that and even practice it on tV without bets and that will be a great start.
I think it is really key to figure out how each horse will most likely fair in how the race unfolds.
Let me know when you have tried that and we can take the next step.
Hope that helps.Leave a comment:
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i don't consider that as an evaluation of my handicapping
I play way too many longshots ..double digit ml's that wind up going off huge odds and that won't cut it long haul .. imo you have to be effective in the 3 to 8-1 range and honestly don't feel I am .. way too many picks also ..would I approach it the same way now if I had the money and time now ..absolutely not but I think all in ,which is obviously not going to happen, I come up short ..I don't "completely" rule out having the time and resources that I couldn't do it .. in all fairness though hypotheticals don't matter .. you either do it or you don't and I haven't
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OK Fair enough. You are above average at identifying young horses that have potential. However your overall body of work is average imo. Just my 2 cents.Leave a comment:
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Hey Jbex as long as you have been in the game it is clear to me that you are not at that level. After 40+ years you would know. Imo. Neither am I after playing seriously for 13+ years. We are average handicappers who also don't have the bankroll the heavy hitters have at their disposal. Tough game it is.Leave a comment:
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I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?Leave a comment:
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from what I've read over the years long term estimates are in the low single digits ..besides talent requires a tremendous amount of time and attention to details that most people (including myself) don't want to do.. to be honest even if I put in the effort have my doubts whether I'm at that level..also need significant bankroll ..there are probably exceptions to this but generally I think this is fairly accurate assessmentLeave a comment:
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I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?Leave a comment:
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With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.
Salty old 50k claimers.
Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.
This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.
Give him a long look.
Good luck today sir.
the 8 pack is tomorrow
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I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?Leave a comment:
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With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.
Salty old 50k claimers.
Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.
This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.
Give him a long look.
Good luck today sir.
popular at the claim box and sure you'd have given him a look back in the day ..take a peek if you get a chance strLeave a comment:
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With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.
Salty old 50k claimers.
Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.
This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.
Give him a long look.
Good luck today sir.Leave a comment:
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army mule ..thursday
how about eight of them
saratoga 7 @ 4:02
danse macabre (9-2)
woodbine 4 @ 4:31
#1 sultry sophie (2-1)
#5 houlihan (4-1)
horseshoe 6 @ 4:45
#9 army fever (8-1)
hawthorne 6 @ 5:47
#4 lemon bomb (6-1)
#7 she's Inthearmynow (9-2)
churchill 7 @ 7:54
#14 hillerito (AE) (6-1)
churchill 8 @ 8:23
#10 flick (10-1)
4:02
4:31
4:45
5:47
7:54
8:23
.Last edited by JBEX; 06-04-25, 09:16 AM.Leave a comment:
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This one got cooked on the lead and the rail.
Watch for a better outside post and a possible more relaxed first 1/4 setup next time out.Leave a comment:
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I'll put the lone one today here
thistledown 6 @ 3:20
#2 holidays army brat (5-2)
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Horse in the 7th wins
Horse in the 6th finishes 2nd at 6-1
The favorite in the race won and the exacta was 50.00. INCREDIBLE !
This is the closest thing to a sure thing as you will ever get.
Army Mules show up every single time.Leave a comment:
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Kind of a confusing ride IMO. I think that jockey would love anther chance to do things better.Leave a comment:
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Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?
A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.
That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.
A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.
As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.
And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.
trainer josie carroll at it for a long time and I believe one of the best at that track so making the right adjustments likely
saw the running line and imo it's very similiar to the one he ran off the long layoff last year..didn't run bad in the following race considering the slow start and crawling pace
put all this together and as you said a good one to keep tabs on and I will
appreciate the feedback as always strLeave a comment:
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This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?
A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.
That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.
A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.
As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.
And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.Last edited by str; 06-02-25, 07:30 AM.Leave a comment:
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