Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

Well so much for trying to beat the best horses in the Belmont. Somethings I'll never learn I guess.

Chancer McPatrick: He is lost IMO. It just isn't there. The only thing I would do would be to find a spot he could win going 1 turn no matter how weak the field. Heck with the purse, hw needs to get his head right. Shame to see and I totally understand the path they took, but drastic times call for drastic measures and I feel that that is where he is now.
Had a nice day going and bet more than we should have on him to win. But, you never stop learning in this game .



On a different note, I saw a lot of people (not here)complaining about taking the races off the turf and cancelling the two grade 1"s. I don't agree with that complaining at all.
It doesn't matter if the sun was out when the race was going to run. The turf course was deemed totally unsafe for all the horses. As much as it sucked for everybody, it was not just the right call, but the only call under the circumstances. Do people that are complaining think management wanted to cancel two Grade 1's on Belmont day at Saratoga? C'mon man.

Too bad but what if it was worse?

with CM even though he started out (3 starts) sensationally as a 2yo running 1 turn races think they might have given up on routing too quick

here's why I say that

1st attempt at 2 turns is the bc juvenile from the furthest outside post off a long cross country ship preceding it ..not easy circumstances

tampa bay derby wasn't bad and compromised imo by a very slow pace


bluegrass only lost by 4+ lengths and a bit of a wide trip between horses .. even if there weren't many excuses here I could still give him 1 more shot off the circumstances in his previous two

I have a hunch with some experience going 2 turns in him and a little mental health freshening from this race he might take to it in a listed or lower level graded stakes .. a specialty allowance condition (time,distance or both)even better



looks like they moved the manhattan stakes (deterministic) to the inner turf which required it to be shortened a half furlong to 1 1/8 miles..post time 7:12

[str]

Well so much for trying to beat the best horses in the Belmont. Somethings I'll never learn I guess.

Chancer McPatrick: He is lost IMO. It just isn't there. The only thing I would do would be to find a spot he could win going 1 turn no matter how weak the field. Heck with the purse, hw needs to get his head right. Shame to see and I totally understand the path they took, but drastic times call for drastic measures and I feel that that is where he is now.
Had a nice day going and bet more than we should have on him to win. But, you never stop learning in this game .



On a different note, I saw a lot of people (not here)complaining about taking the races off the turf and cancelling the two grade 1"s. I don't agree with that complaining at all.
It doesn't matter if the sun was out when the race was going to run. The turf course was deemed totally unsafe for all the horses. As much as it sucked for everybody, it was not just the right call, but the only call under the circumstances. Do people that are complaining think management wanted to cancel two Grade 1's on Belmont day at Saratoga? C'mon man.

Too bad but what if it was worse?

[str]

We are up 66.00 on the day betting 10 and 20 a race.
20 win #3
20 win #6

[JBEX]

I love it !
I'm sure you and some other regulars in here do as well.

absolutely..you'll get the nicer camera and drone views also

[str]

pretty nice lead in to the belmont stakes which is the race after these 2

I love it !
I'm sure you and some other regulars in here do as well.

[str]

nice to see chancer back at 1 turn and where it all started for him..too bad it'll be sloppy though

deterministic goes in the following race and the turf is yielding..ran well in his 2nd try on the turf on a good track there so hopefully he'll take to even more give .. good luck today

I saw Deterministic was in today as well. Have not seen even a glance of his race yet as my printer will not cooperate so I guess I have to buy the form when I get there. Long time between forms for me. Lol.
I'm kind of excited to get a ton of printers ink on by hands again.

[JBEX]

nice to see chancer back at 1 turn and where it all started for him..too bad it'll be sloppy though

deterministic goes in the following race and the turf is yielding..ran well in his 2nd try on the turf on a good track there so hopefully he'll take to even more give .. good luck today

pretty nice lead in to the belmont stakes which is the race after these 2

[JBEX]

army mule saturday

cd 2 (1:14) #5 hope restored (5-1)
parx 4 (1:26) #1 la de peluche (5-2)
cd 11 (5:58) #3 colonel caliente (7-2)

[JBEX]

Well it's off to Laurel again today to see by friends and try and win a few bucks at the same time.

I have a lot to look at and the track condition is iffy as of now so we shall see.
I will try and post my pick for the Belmont with more than 1 minute to post this time.

I went through most of the card quickly just to get an overview and was pleasantly surprised to see our boy Chancer ** Patrick back in a one turn race going 7/8ths at Saratoga. I hope he reverts back to his old ways and finds his place back early, and in front late. Have to look at the field but cannot imagine I bet against him going that distance especially with following him and wanting to see this for a while now.

I'll check back later if anyone has a question about todays races.

Good luck everyone.

nice to see chancer back at 1 turn and where it all started for him..too bad it'll be sloppy though

deterministic goes in the following race and the turf is yielding..ran well in his 2nd try on the turf on a good track there so hopefully he'll take to even more give .. good luck today

[str]

Well it's off to Laurel again today to see by friends and try and win a few bucks at the same time.

I have a lot to look at and the track condition is iffy as of now so we shall see.
I will try and post my pick for the Belmont with more than 1 minute to post this time.

I went through most of the card quickly just to get an overview and was pleasantly surprised to see our boy Chancer ** Patrick back in a one turn race going 7/8ths at Saratoga. I hope he reverts back to his old ways and finds his place back early, and in front late. Have to look at the field but cannot imagine I bet against him going that distance especially with following him and wanting to see this for a while now.

I'll check back later if anyone has a question about todays races.

Good luck everyone.

[skill]

@Batch 5:45

Cammy e/w

Bets on betus :

https://goto.now/dmvfH

[JBEX]

army mule ..friday


gulfstream 1 @ 12:50
#6 army medic (10-1)


saratoga 4 @ 1:28
#5 army gal (5-2)




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[str]

Well yes, a few do. But make no mistake. In this game you always hear about the wins. Not much talk about the losses.
That was what I found intriguing when I was betting in high school. It told me that the answer was probably not very many.
One thing I learned early and it was a big help for me was, when you bet and lose, see if you know afterwards why? Like, did your speed horse break terribly or did I not expect some others in the race to show as much speed as they did. If so, that could be a correctable error.
Most times, we throw our tickets away and move on to the next race. But I found there is quite a bit of information sometimes to be learned for next time.

So maybe try betting every other race on a typical day of racing. Go back and watch the replay afterwards and see what was different than how you thought it would be.

That leads to the first thing I will recommend.

Set the race up on paper beforehand and see if you are right afterwards. If you can get it fairly right, that is huge. Learning to see the race as it runs prior to it running can identify solo speed or a big speed duel with a solid closer or whatever.
Wont happen every race but it will happen. That’s a step towards being able to see things others don’t see.
Try that and even practice it on tV without bets and that will be a great start.
I think it is really key to figure out how each horse will most likely fair in how the race unfolds.
Let me know when you have tried that and we can take the next step.
Hope that helps.

One other thing you might try as you watch races set up/. Turn down the announcer. Not necessarily all the way but turn it down and do not actively listen to them. Sure, you can hear it, but don't follow it as your first sense. Use your eyes and watch the horses and where you predicted them to be. If you bet, you are drawn to that horse. But if you don't, it might take a few days, but learn to give each horse and rider a glance constantly. Make your primary sense your eyes, NOT your ears. One will always be dominate, make it your eyes and watching and scanning a race front to back, front to back, and then as things go on. It is a different way to see the races and one that I found to help me see many more things than I previously did.

It's kind of amazing how the watching of the race changes away from your ears to your eyes.

This does work. Give it a shot.

Again, no bet in the race. Just any race. See what more you can see. Just keep scanning front to back, front to back about every 5-8 seconds early on in the race.

Any feedback from anyone is great to hear.

[str]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

Well yes, a few do. But make no mistake. In this game you always hear about the wins. Not much talk about the losses.
That was what I found intriguing when I was betting in high school. It told me that the answer was probably not very many.
One thing I learned early and it was a big help for me was, when you bet and lose, see if you know afterwards why? Like, did your speed horse break terribly or did I not expect some others in the race to show as much speed as they did. If so, that could be a correctable error.
Most times, we throw our tickets away and move on to the next race. But I found there is quite a bit of information sometimes to be learned for next time.

So maybe try betting every other race on a typical day of racing. Go back and watch the replay afterwards and see what was different than how you thought it would be.

That leads to the first thing I will recommend.

Set the race up on paper beforehand and see if you are right afterwards. If you can get it fairly right, that is huge. Learning to see the race as it runs prior to it running can identify solo speed or a big speed duel with a solid closer or whatever.
Wont happen every race but it will happen. That’s a step towards being able to see things others don’t see.
Try that and even practice it on tV without bets and that will be a great start.
I think it is really key to figure out how each horse will most likely fair in how the race unfolds.
Let me know when you have tried that and we can take the next step.
Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

OK Fair enough. You are above average at identifying young horses that have potential. However your overall body of work is average imo. Just my 2 cents.

i don't consider that as an evaluation of my handicapping

I play way too many longshots ..double digit ml's that wind up going off huge odds and that won't cut it long haul .. imo you have to be effective in the 3 to 8-1 range and honestly don't feel I am .. way too many picks also ..would I approach it the same way now if I had the money and time now ..absolutely not but I think all in ,which is obviously not going to happen, I come up short ..I don't "completely" rule out having the time and resources that I couldn't do it .. in all fairness though hypotheticals don't matter .. you either do it or you don't and I haven't

[Easy-Rider 66]

yes I was being generous with my description but I don't consider myself an average handicapper either..you can be above average but not professional level considering the supposed tiny % that are .. there's room in between

OK Fair enough. You are above average at identifying young horses that have potential. However your overall body of work is average imo. Just my 2 cents.

[JBEX]

Hey Jbex as long as you have been in the game it is clear to me that you are not at that level. After 40+ years you would know. Imo. Neither am I after playing seriously for 13+ years. We are average handicappers who also don't have the bankroll the heavy hitters have at their disposal. Tough game it is.

yes I was being generous with my description but I don't consider myself an average handicapper either..you can be above average but not professional level considering the supposed tiny % that are .. there's room in between

[Easy-Rider 66]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

Hey Ray you want to try something different check out Horse tourneys and derby wars the tournament sites. You get more bang for your buck playing tourneys imo.

[Easy-Rider 66]

from what I've read over the years long term estimates are in the low single digits ..besides talent requires a tremendous amount of time and attention to details that most people (including myself) don't want to do.. to be honest even if I put in the effort have my doubts whether I'm at that level..also need significant bankroll ..there are probably exceptions to this but generally I think this is fairly accurate assessment

Hey Jbex as long as you have been in the game it is clear to me that you are not at that level. After 40+ years you would know. Imo. Neither am I after playing seriously for 13+ years. We are average handicappers who also don't have the bankroll the heavy hitters have at their disposal. Tough game it is.

[JBEX]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

found another at finger lakes

R2 #6 trojan mule (2-1) @ 1:29

[JBEX]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

from what I've read over the years long term estimates are in the low single digits ..besides talent requires a tremendous amount of time and attention to details that most people (including myself) don't want to do.. to be honest even if I put in the effort have my doubts whether I'm at that level..also need significant bankroll ..there are probably exceptions to this but generally I think this is fairly accurate assessment

[JBEX]

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

the 8 pack is tomorrow

[BT RayRay]

I’m gonna ask a stupid question. But I’ve been playing the horses on and off for almost 30 years. I’ve never had any kind of consistent wins or even a good week/couple days.
The question is, does anybody actually win at this or is it just a constant? I’m having fun and blowing money.?

[JBEX]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

thanks madison

popular at the claim box and sure you'd have given him a look back in the day ..take a peek if you get a chance str

[str]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

With so many in today, only missing one is probably pretty good. Lol.

Salty old 50k claimers.

Always a tough crowd. Not sure where he will finish but you probably already know what I'm going to say.

This one will either win or run extremely hard and get bested. Rarely without a fight though. Don't need a form to see that in these AM's Madison.

Give him a long look.

Good luck today sir.

[Madison]

Did you miss, CD R7 #6 Airborne Elite?

[JBEX]

mistake





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[JBEX]

army mule ..thursday

how about eight of them



saratoga 7 @ 4:02
danse macabre (9-2)


woodbine 4 @ 4:31
#1 sultry sophie (2-1)
#5 houlihan (4-1)


horseshoe 6 @ 4:45
#9 army fever (8-1)


hawthorne 6 @ 5:47
#4 lemon bomb (6-1)
#7 she's Inthearmynow (9-2)


churchill 7 @ 7:54
#14 hillerito (AE) (6-1)


churchill 8 @ 8:23
#10 flick (10-1)







4:02
4:31
4:45
5:47
7:54
8:23







.

[str]

Small field but a really competitive race.

She should run very well in there.

Certainly did try hard. But...11 and 11, 12 and 12, and 13 and 13 were the fractions

This one got cooked on the lead and the rail.

Watch for a better outside post and a possible more relaxed first 1/4 setup next time out.

[str]

exacta paid around double what it should have ..not supported in the pools at all




I'll put the lone one today here



thistledown 6 @ 3:20
#2 holidays army brat (5-2)





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Small field but a really competitive race.

She should run very well in there.

[JBEX]

Just another day at the office for Army Mule.

Horse in the 7th wins

Horse in the 6th finishes 2nd at 6-1

The favorite in the race won and the exacta was 50.00. INCREDIBLE !

This is the closest thing to a sure thing as you will ever get.

Army Mules show up every single time.

exacta paid around double what it should have ..not supported in the pools at all




I'll put the lone one today here



thistledown 6 @ 3:20
#2 holidays army brat (5-2)





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[str]

army mule ..monday


presque isle 7 @ 6:12
#1 captain courtney (9-5)

presque isle 6
#6 calvary cat (8-1)

Just another day at the office for Army Mule.

Horse in the 7th wins

Horse in the 6th finishes 2nd at 6-1

The favorite in the race won and the exacta was 50.00. INCREDIBLE !

This is the closest thing to a sure thing as you will ever get.

Army Mules show up every single time.

[str]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

By then that roan was all out and I do think the inside horse was out of gears and just running as best as it could. The problem was letting that roan horse get a jump on him in the first place. You have to keep that right eye clear and the outside horse took that away and the inside horse had no gear to gain it back.
Kind of a confusing ride IMO. I think that jockey would love anther chance to do things better.

[JBEX]

Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?

A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.

That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.

A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.

As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.

And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.

this is the jockey's 3rd full year ,low teens win % and over 1k mounts ..not really familiar with the colony but know a few names, main one being patrick husband's .. race was fairly deep with jock talent by the numbers

trainer josie carroll at it for a long time and I believe one of the best at that track so making the right adjustments likely


saw the running line and imo it's very similiar to the one he ran off the long layoff last year..didn't run bad in the following race considering the slow start and crawling pace

put all this together and as you said a good one to keep tabs on and I will

appreciate the feedback as always str

[str]

just curious what you think about this str.. late in the far turn do you feel him not being able to get outside of the roan because of the 7 cost him some momentum ?

Question: Who was the rider? Is that rider fairly young? I ask because I am not sure that rider was committed to riding like the jock was in charge and it looked more to me that the rider was indecisive early. That jock just did not look confident in making any decision early. As a result, the rider made no decision and the other horses basically rode the race for him/her. Guess that sounds weird but that is exactly what I saw.
This horse broke fine and could have done anything or been anywhere it wanted to be. 24.77 first 1/4 and you are 3 wide and let the 4 wide horse cross over into a slow fraction? Was the rider riding to instructions and not confident enough to make a decision based on the race instead of the pre race assumptions?

A trainer can draw the race up on paper for the rider. I did that every time. But... when they break, the paper is a prediction of events and the rider must grab those events and do what makes sense for that horse and him or herself as things play out.

That looked like a ride not to lose or make a mistake instead of a ride too win.

A rider change can be good but if the trainer sits down and discusses that attempt on film with the rider, this rider will certainly be better next out. Without knowing alot more, I'm not saying change the rider. I am saying either change the rider OR, air this mess out and both be better for it next out.

As for next time out, you folks should circle this one and make sure you give this horse a hard look next out. This is how you find horses where you probably know more than most of the other players you are betting against. On form this race looks ok. But that had the potential to be much better than that. A must follow for next time out JBEX.

And yes, a little tired that last 1/8th. Won't be next time. Especially with a 5/8ths - out 3/4's in it between now and then.