Horse Racing questions and answers

[stevenash]

^

Appreciate that post.
Thanks

[str]

It's pouring rain all over here in the Northeast.
Do you guys have any slop eaters that might pay a nice price?

Hi Nasher,

As you know, sloppy and muddy tracks can have extreme biases. They all don't, but enough of them do. Trying to prepare a depth of the track with heavy rain forecasted in never easy for the track superintendent. Sometimes, those in charge make it look easy, but it is not.

Speed usually has an edge going into any sloppy race because it is so easy to be on the lead, and so hard to navigate the wet mud flying back at the rider and of course, the horse. Then you have the question about footing. Does the horse trust the footing? If not, the form should show that. If so, it will show that as well. In spots like yesterday, if a handicapper does not rely heavily on the horses improvement or lessening ability on a wet surface, they are not using the tools in their belt. For that part of it, it is this simple. Some horses completely trust the mud and or wet. Others do not to varying degrees. Those that do not perform well on sloppy tracks are typically an auto toss for me. If there is no form, their breeding can suggest likes or dislikes.

Question: You know how we walk on ice when we don't trust the footing? We walk with the bulk of our weight UP. In our shoulders or midsection so as to be able to react to slipping better. Well, that is exactly what a horse will do if they do not trust it. And that makes them slow. Just like it makes us slow. But... steady , right? That's the old saying. And its a saying for a reason. It's true. Same with horses. A young apprentice rider is not as seasoned with using goggles when on a closer and probably wishes he/she had done a better job after the race win or lose with those goggles. A veteran does not have that problem. All that stuff adds up. And in gambling, as you know, all those little things DO add up over a large enough sample size.
So... whenever we bet, we are simply trying to slant the odds in our favor right? So playing against a bug rider who is on a closer in the slop at very low odds, might be well worth the risk.

It's rarely one thing that helps make a bet a good play or a bad one. It's the culmination of slanting enough odds per occurrence in your favor to make the investment well worth the risk. I know you know that Nasher. I do as well. But hopefully someone will read this and benefit from it.
I do enjoy trying to point things out to other gamblers that are simply an effort to get the odds more in a players favor than typically. It took a lot of years to learn to understand that stuff for many a "seasoned" player. This is definitely that, in horse racing.

Remember, Measure twice, cut once. And if you are mad after losing a wager, don't be mad at yourself. Learn from it and chalk it up to life's tuition to higher learning. It's the same mistake over again that should make you mad. Not a learning moment ,as long as you do learn from it.

And on this Memorial day, be sure and thank a veteran for their service. Without them, life might be completely different for all of us. It's a luxury for all of us to have the time and the freedom to discuss gambling today, or any day and that luxury was and IS provided by all those that served your country.

Good luck everyone. Feel free to follow up if you have any questions.

[BOA12]

It's pouring rain all over here in the Northeast.
Do you guys have any slop eaters that might pay a nice price?

If I hit my early double

at GP

will look at Baq

4 sum mudders

for both of us.

12 mins r2 at gp.

[BOA12]

Laurel is 30 minutes south straight down I-95. If you ever want to come there let me know.

Ten4.

[stevenash]

It's pouring rain all over here in the Northeast.
Do you guys have any slop eaters that might pay a nice price?

[str]

guessing it's not as simple as removing the blinkers str .. do you think it's possible that they could get him to relax to a degree - think maybe in an extended sprint he might naturally fall into place more than going two turns ? he did break his maiden off the pace at 6f in his debut and won a 1 turn mile at start 2

It could be that simple. Rather than jump through protocol with having to break from the gate with the bell to remove them( don’t know if that is still a rule) I just made them cheaters. Each cup about 3/4’s of an inch only. Basically, no blinkers. But he needs to work on that scenario in the morning. Depends on the horse as to how difficult it might be. But if he can relax, he has real talent.

[str]

How far is Laurel from Baltimore ?

Like to meet the chief/ U/andy

at Laurel and add to my list

of visited Ovals.

Your home court

will be #21 over a

50 year passion, hobby,

odyssey and full

time pursuit

of a good time

all the time.

My Paradise on

Earth, A World

W/out evil,my yard.

Once I leave there,

All bets R off.

GL my loyal friend

and holder of great

professional and

personal wisdom

in my experience W/U.

Laurel is 30 minutes south straight down I-95. If you ever want to come there let me know.

[JBEX]

guessing it's not as simple as removing the blinkers str .. do you think it's possible that they could get him to relax to a degree - think maybe in an extended sprint he might naturally fall into place more than going two turns ? he did break his maiden off the pace at 6f in his debut and won a 1 turn mile at start 2

[BOA12]

How far is Laurel from Baltimore ?

Like to meet the chief/ U/andy

at Laurel and add to my list

of visited Ovals.

Your home court

will be #21 over a

50 year passion, hobby,

odyssey and full

time pursuit

of a good time

all the time.

My Paradise on

Earth, A World

W/out evil,my yard.

Once I leave there,

All bets R off.

GL my loyal friend

and holder of great

professional and

personal wisdom

in my experience W/U.

[BOA12]

Hi B12. I wanted to be sure and point out that while Taj Mahal got a winning trip in the Preakness, his race was all but over after about 20 seconds. If you watched the TV network version, do you remember when they switched cameras just as Taj Mahal was getting ready to go into the first turn? If not, you tube it and watch that for about 20 seconds. The only thing I want you to look at when the view switches to the side is Taj Mahals eyes and face. It might be hard to see at first but watch it a few times only around the clubhouse turn when you can see that view of him up close. Notice that the horse is running like a tiger is chasing him and his hair is on fire. The rider is fighting him with all his strength but he has no chance. That is a most classic display of "running off" that you ever see. The rider might as well have been pushing him to open up 20 lengths at that point because that is the amount of energy Taj Mahal was exerting. He displayed that same thing in his previous race when he opened up 10 lengths but half way down the backside that day, the rider finally got him to drop the bit enough to relax. That should have gotten him beat that day but he was SO much the best it didn't.
Taj Mahal never relaxed a bit. He simply ran out of air stressing mentally. He is better than his last race. A lot better. But... he will need to relax and rate if he is going to beat the top horses around. He can rate on the lead. That's no problem. But he needs to learn to take orders from the rider and hopefully he can come around to that.
I am sure that working towards that will be priority one for the trainer at this point. He had the talent to win but not the mindset. I hope that makes sense and you can see what I am talking about. Let me know if I can help you with that .

Makes total sense str.

A free spirit by nature,

a lot like most horse

lover brothers.

A leader not a fan

of being behind.

Will he run in

Maryland again or

head to $$ greener

pasture's ?

[str]

Right on.

If it ends 1-12, your first day here

happy birthday for me. LOL

Watching, waiting, working up a hunger.

Hi B12. I wanted to be sure and point out that while Taj Mahal got a winning trip in the Preakness, his race was all but over after about 20 seconds. If you watched the TV network version, do you remember when they switched cameras just as Taj Mahal was getting ready to go into the first turn? If not, you tube it and watch that for about 20 seconds. The only thing I want you to look at when the view switches to the side is Taj Mahals eyes and face. It might be hard to see at first but watch it a few times only around the clubhouse turn when you can see that view of him up close. Notice that the horse is running like a tiger is chasing him and his hair is on fire. The rider is fighting him with all his strength but he has no chance. That is a most classic display of "running off" that you ever see. The rider might as well have been pushing him to open up 20 lengths at that point because that is the amount of energy Taj Mahal was exerting. He displayed that same thing in his previous race when he opened up 10 lengths but half way down the backside that day, the rider finally got him to drop the bit enough to relax. That should have gotten him beat that day but he was SO much the best it didn't.
Taj Mahal never relaxed a bit. He simply ran out of air stressing mentally. He is better than his last race. A lot better. But... he will need to relax and rate if he is going to beat the top horses around. He can rate on the lead. That's no problem. But he needs to learn to take orders from the rider and hopefully he can come around to that.
I am sure that working towards that will be priority one for the trainer at this point. He had the talent to win but not the mindset. I hope that makes sense and you can see what I am talking about. Let me know if I can help you with that .

[str]

do you think that could be the case str ... maybe throw a baby off with two starts on it to begin it's career ?

It could have been that but.. most likely the horse did not care for some aspect of the mud. Maybe the footing was bothering the horse or the mud kick back. Something like that probably.
I would avoid doing much with babies on a real muddy, sloppy surface before their first race. Even the echo of the feet slapping on the slop can Scare a baby when it echoes through the stretch and the grandstand. So many little things can go wrong it’s like, what’s the point. Just take the day and wait for a better surface tomorrow was my approach. Not all trainer’s though. Some of them would have trained them on anything just to train them. My emphasis was a little different than the big name baby trainers who pretty much had no 4 yr. Olds.
If I knew more about the trainers rep that might answer the question.

[batt33]

When a horse switches leads back and forth, their mind is not where you want it to be. If they are thinking about anything but competing, they are not at their absolute best for that period of time.

Probably fair to add that into his effort knowing his mind was wandering a bit that last part of the race. Only adds to the overall ability he displayed IMO.

Always learning with this group!

[batt33]

good time to mention there is a horse in R3 at churchill "army officer" .. this one isn't by army mule

haha isn't that a "gotcha" for Army Mule fans?? okay well it got me

[JBEX]

wrong .. she (not him) is scratched..maybe they don't want a 2yo running twice in the slop to start her career

do you think that could be the case str ... maybe throw a baby off with two starts on it to begin it's career ?

[JBEX]

good time to mention there is a horse in R3 at churchill "army officer" .. this one isn't by army mule

[JBEX]

think it's going to be sloppy there and pretty sure off his debut they'd run him in it today .. will keep posted when they put up the scratches

wrong .. she (not him) is scratched..maybe they don't want a 2yo running twice in the slop to start her career

[JBEX]

When a horse switches leads back and forth, their mind is not where you want it to be. If they are thinking about anything but competing, they are not at their absolute best for that period of time.

Probably fair to add that into his effort knowing his mind was wandering a bit that last part of the race. Only adds to the overall ability he displayed IMO.

interesting and worthwhile thing to know going forward for him and in general

[JBEX]

an army mule goes in churchill R2 friday.. #7 bit tipsy (12-1) 1:14

exits an extremely fast 4.5 f msw on the slop where she finished 4th of 11..his progeny have run well on the turf and she might get lost a bit in the betting
in this field .. these are the best 2yo msw races currently running offering a stakes level purse of $120k

It is never a wise move to allow an Army Mule to get lost in any race. There might be some in there with as much will to compete as AM's have, but no horse will have more.

think it's going to be sloppy there and pretty sure off his debut they'd run him in it today .. will keep posted when they put up the scratches

[str]

great description of that key part of the race str and seems like the longtime, veteran jock made some smart decisions with NS for sure ..Nice that a solid jock like him finally notches a triple crown race win

I think as you pointed out to me that iron honor may have gone to his left lead due to tire tracks
.. when he switched back (guessing about 50 yards from the wire)he seemed to finish with a lot of energy ..combine that with being off the rail as a disadvantage(maybe both cost him 2 or 3 lengths total in the race) and it was a real solid effort by him ..other than it being run at saratoga the belmont stakes should be a nice race this year

When a horse switches leads back and forth, their mind is not where you want it to be. If they are thinking about anything but competing, they are not at their absolute best for that period of time.

Probably fair to add that into his effort knowing his mind was wandering a bit that last part of the race. Only adds to the overall ability he displayed IMO.

[str]

an army mule goes in churchill R2 friday.. #7 bit tipsy (12-1) 1:14

exits an extremely fast 4.5 f msw on the slop where she finished 4th of 11..his progeny have run well on the turf and she might get lost a bit in the betting
in this field .. these are the best 2yo msw races currently running offering a stakes level purse of $120k

It is never a wise move to allow an Army Mule to get lost in any race. There might be some in there with as much will to compete as AM's have, but no horse will have more.

[JBEX]

an army mule goes in churchill R2 friday.. #7 bit tipsy (12-1) 1:14

exits an extremely fast 4.5 f msw on the slop where she finished 4th of 11..his progeny have run well on the turf and she might get lost a bit in the betting
in this field .. these are the best 2yo msw races currently running offering a stakes level purse of $120k

[JBEX]

Napoleon Solo stayed on his correct lead, the right lead all the way through the stretch. The reason for the slightly erratic running was Paco , and although kind of typical as we can see this in plenty of ordinary races, a race of this magnitude allows people to really see how the sausage is made behind the scenes.
Here is what happened:

Jockey Lopez looks to his inside as they go past the red and white 1/4 pole. He looks inside and sees the 1 horse is dead. He looks outside and sees two horses coming so he makes it just a little bit harder for them by angling out some. Perfectly legal and very smart of Lopez. That is 1:41 on the replay clock. If you freeze it at 1:41 on the clock, you can see the inside horse of the two outside rallying, have to check ever so slightly. That could be from the dirt flying back all of the sudden or the rider deciding that his hole will close and he needs to swing towards the rail which is wide open.
That move makes both closing riders have to adjust their paths which could and did help slow momentum somewhat for a few strides. Then, 2 seconds later at 1:47 Paco starts to realize that he has made the closer in Orange move inside because he took position away from him by sliding out at 1:45. So, Paco, still well clear , and seeing that the now inside horse who was outside a couple of seconds ago is rallying harder than the far outside horse. Paco, still well clear of both, decides to take one of them away. He chooses the inside horse who has a bit more momentum. So, he angles inside to throw dirt in that horses face again and make life difficult and if that horse is going to go inside he will have to squeeze through. Freeze it at 1:47 and there is Paco looking inside at the closer coming.

After doing that, his horse keeps drifting in to the fence, most likely starting to get a little tired and Paco at 1:54 if you freeze it there, pulls his hands way outward to reset the bit and get his horses full attention back for a few more seconds. He makes the horse forget about tired for a second and refocus on winning.
The horse digs in and Paco plays his last card in his hand. He hits the horse right handed one time with a full strike from above his head. ( Yeah, I know, PETA ), and the horse momentarily kicks on as a response to that. That is all it took. He got his horse to forget tired and wobbly for about 4 more strides. By then, it was over.

That was a master class from a veteran rider riding as good a race as he ever has. He will pay the fine. He will take the heat. The sad reality is that people don't actually see all that goes on when a team of people and a horse, put all the effort possible into something in order to make history.
So, was it worth it? Of course. Did Paco really think of all this stuff over those 24 seconds. Absolutely ! This is the stuff most of us do not see in world class events.
In the iconic Super bowl many years ago, we see the play ( The Catch), and see what we see. But what we don't see is the right tackle slide of his 1st assignment and make another play that nobody sees so Montana gets that extra second and can throw the ball in a spot they have practiced all year for that one moment when he throws it intentionally high to Dwight Clark in the back of the end zone because that play was worked on all that year for a moment when Clark would be the only person tall enough to catch it. Google that sometime and you will see the story behind it all. It's incredible.

I feel so fortunate to have been involved with a sport to such a degree that I can understand this stuff. Professional anything means, the top of the top and seeing everything. I wish I could see it in pro football but I just cant to the degree I wish I could. I was blessed with the opportunity I had to learn from one of the greatest claiming trainers in the world, and get the chance to try my best to make all those decisions that are made daily. I get goosebumps watching races like the one Paco rode and breaking it down for everybody. I hope you folks enjoy it. For me, it's part of what life is all about.

great description of that key part of the race str and seems like the longtime, veteran jock made some smart decisions with NS for sure ..Nice that a solid jock like him finally notches a triple crown race win

I think as you pointed out to me that iron honor may have gone to his left lead due to tire tracks
.. when he switched back (guessing about 50 yards from the wire)he seemed to finish with a lot of energy ..combine that with being off the rail as a disadvantage(maybe both cost him 2 or 3 lengths total in the race) and it was a real solid effort by him ..other than it being run at saratoga the belmont stakes should be a nice race this year

[str]

I'll watch the stretch run again and see if I see something. Didn't pay that much attention to it originally. I'll let you know what I see.

Napoleon Solo stayed on his correct lead, the right lead all the way through the stretch. The reason for the slightly erratic running was Paco , and although kind of typical as we can see this in plenty of ordinary races, a race of this magnitude allows people to really see how the sausage is made behind the scenes.
Here is what happened:

Jockey Lopez looks to his inside as they go past the red and white 1/4 pole. He looks inside and sees the 1 horse is dead. He looks outside and sees two horses coming so he makes it just a little bit harder for them by angling out some. Perfectly legal and very smart of Lopez. That is 1:41 on the replay clock. If you freeze it at 1:41 on the clock, you can see the inside horse of the two outside rallying, have to check ever so slightly. That could be from the dirt flying back all of the sudden or the rider deciding that his hole will close and he needs to swing towards the rail which is wide open.
That move makes both closing riders have to adjust their paths which could and did help slow momentum somewhat for a few strides. Then, 2 seconds later at 1:47 Paco starts to realize that he has made the closer in Orange move inside because he took position away from him by sliding out at 1:45. So, Paco, still well clear , and seeing that the now inside horse who was outside a couple of seconds ago is rallying harder than the far outside horse. Paco, still well clear of both, decides to take one of them away. He chooses the inside horse who has a bit more momentum. So, he angles inside to throw dirt in that horses face again and make life difficult and if that horse is going to go inside he will have to squeeze through. Freeze it at 1:47 and there is Paco looking inside at the closer coming.

After doing that, his horse keeps drifting in to the fence, most likely starting to get a little tired and Paco at 1:54 if you freeze it there, pulls his hands way outward to reset the bit and get his horses full attention back for a few more seconds. He makes the horse forget about tired for a second and refocus on winning.
The horse digs in and Paco plays his last card in his hand. He hits the horse right handed one time with a full strike from above his head. ( Yeah, I know, PETA ), and the horse momentarily kicks on as a response to that. That is all it took. He got his horse to forget tired and wobbly for about 4 more strides. By then, it was over.

That was a master class from a veteran rider riding as good a race as he ever has. He will pay the fine. He will take the heat. The sad reality is that people don't actually see all that goes on when a team of people and a horse, put all the effort possible into something in order to make history.
So, was it worth it? Of course. Did Paco really think of all this stuff over those 24 seconds. Absolutely ! This is the stuff most of us do not see in world class events.
In the iconic Super bowl many years ago, we see the play ( The Catch), and see what we see. But what we don't see is the right tackle slide of his 1st assignment and make another play that nobody sees so Montana gets that extra second and can throw the ball in a spot they have practiced all year for that one moment when he throws it intentionally high to Dwight Clark in the back of the end zone because that play was worked on all that year for a moment when Clark would be the only person tall enough to catch it. Google that sometime and you will see the story behind it all. It's incredible.

I feel so fortunate to have been involved with a sport to such a degree that I can understand this stuff. Professional anything means, the top of the top and seeing everything. I wish I could see it in pro football but I just cant to the degree I wish I could. I was blessed with the opportunity I had to learn from one of the greatest claiming trainers in the world, and get the chance to try my best to make all those decisions that are made daily. I get goosebumps watching races like the one Paco rode and breaking it down for everybody. I hope you folks enjoy it. For me, it's part of what life is all about.

[str]

wouldn't make any sense to do it otherwise .. positionally it's better for the lead horse off the rail so it's more likely the horse behind you might have to shift paths to get by and you'd rather them try that on the inside if they have to .. I think it's more evidence to what you've been saying that the inside was the place to be

I'll watch the stretch run again and see if I see something. Didn't pay that much attention to it originally. I'll let you know what I see.

[str]

yes you would think it could have meaning for 2yo races also and my thought would be graded stakes .. new challenges of facing higher quality company and going longer distances be a good time to consider it .. sure you could apply it more broadly but I'm trying to focus on spots where the effect might be magnified;they've exhibited a degree of talent already

They sure have.

[JBEX]

It could have been. I don't know if the riders could actually feel it or not. That was him being smart if he knew, or looking smart and he didn't. Can't argue with it right?

wouldn't make any sense to do it otherwise .. positionally it's better for the lead horse off the rail so it's more likely the horse behind you might have to shift paths to get by and you'd rather them try that on the inside if they have to .. I think it's more evidence to what you've been saying that the inside was the place to be

[JBEX]

watching the preakness stretch call again it looked like iron honor switched back to his left lead about 100 yards from the sixteenth pole (bore in) and back to his right lead about the same distance from the wire .. that (if true) would mean he was on the left lead for about a half furlong in the stretch

[JBEX]

Liam's Map is on my radar. He is has produced some nice runners of late. Also, I too like to look at the date these animals are born. These 2 and 3 year old horses develop fast. Big difference in a January and May foaling.

yes you would think it could have meaning for 2yo races also and my thought would be graded stakes .. new challenges of facing higher quality company and going longer distances be a good time to consider it .. sure you could apply it more broadly but I'm trying to focus on spots where the effect might be magnified;they've exhibited a degree of talent already

[Pigpen]

also worth noting napoleon solo is by liam's map who's the sire of deterministic.. very versatile sire to get a multiple grade 1 stakes horse on the turf and also a 3yo classic winner on the dirt

Liam's Map is on my radar. He is has produced some nice runners of late. Also, I too like to look at the date these animals are born. These 2 and 3 year old horses develop fast. Big difference in a January and May foaling.

[str]

the inside bias might've been why paco went to the rail with napoleon solo at the 3/16th's pole .. factoring a bias that was a nice effort by iron honor to stay close with him to the wire

It could have been. I don't know if the riders could actually feel it or not. That was him being smart if he knew, or looking smart and he didn't. Can't argue with it right?

[JBEX]

the inside bias might've been why paco went to the rail with napoleon solo at the 3/16th's pole .. factoring a bias that was a nice effort by iron honor to stay close with him to the wire

[JBEX]

also worth noting napoleon solo is by liam's map who's the sire of deterministic.. very versatile sire to get a multiple grade 1 stakes horse on the turf and also a 3yo classic winner on the dirt

[JBEX]

Another thing that needed mentioning.

Q. Who was the youngest horse in the Preakness? There were three February foals.

Napoleon Solo Feb. 17th
Crupper Feb. 25th
Ocelli Feb 27th

First two legs won by the oldest horse in each 3 yr. old race
HMMMM.
Make of that what you will.

i think there's something to it factoring the odds .. have to pay attention to the belmont and travers

[str]

Another thing that needed mentioning.

Q. Who was the youngest horse in the Preakness? There were three February foals.

Napoleon Solo Feb. 17th
Crupper Feb. 25th
Ocelli Feb 27th

First two legs won by the oldest horse in each 3 yr. old race
HMMMM.
Make of that what you will.